Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE

Update to the last FTSE posting

Short term i suspect this is ending wave [iii] from the 6225, this is a similar wave count to the SPX, so a reversal around 6830 would be the ideal around, its closing in on a fibbo target

Whilst it is above 6750 the trend remains up, a move back under 6750 will be a clue to suggest wave [iv] has started

I am targeting the 6600-6650 area for wave [iv], before setting up in wave [v] above 6900-7000

If we can see a decent decline for wave [iv] to 6650,  then a move higher for wave [v] it can also align with a peak around the 20-25th June as per the timing chart

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE

The overall look on the FTSE in my opinion supports the case for a large ABC advance, although there are 2 ideas i am currently tracking, both ideas really suggest a potential pullback, based on the pullback will help confirm which idea is in progress

Idea 1: The idea in black suggests a potential termination to a larger WXY correction and is the preferred idea, based off the May 2012 lows it looks like its ending a 5 wave advance

The latest advance is showing a strong RSI divergence which supports the case of a 5th wave ending form the May 2012 lows

Idea 2: However, it maybe only be ending the idea in blue, but eventually a decent pullback towards 6200 is the idea and target the lower trend channel line

Although i have been looking for a peak in this market for the past 2 weeks, the structure suggests at minimum i would expect to see 6200 once a pullback starts. So whilst i am waiting for evidence of a reversal, i still suspect we could be close to a reversal based on the short term charts, although they maybe a few days away from completion

Another long term idea, is that of a triangle and its now ending wave C, so in a 5th wave of a potential C wave of a larger ABC, but the idea is still suggesting a potential peak and something significant

Although i am not much of a cycle trader there appears to be a nice 56Week cycle running on this market, so gives a potential date around the 24th June, although i focus on wave structure more than cycles

Elliott Wave Analysis of CBA,RIO and BHP (ASX)

Some of the resource and banking stocks in the Australian markets are looking like there could be some clean ideas to trade

Although i don't personally follow these stocks that much i am watching these banking and resource stocks for clues on the ASX

RIO

After a 5 wave decline from $72.38, its now correcting that decline, i am targeting the previous 4th wave around the $59.47 -60.00area, and that would also coincidence with the 38.2% of the whole 5 wave decline

As long as we see a 3 wave advance from $52.00 (ie wave [v] low) then it can setup for a move lower

Higher target could be as high as the $62.00, but for now i am focused on the initial target area around $59.50-60.00

BHP

Very similar to RIO and that its working the same corrective bounce, i would like to think we can see $34.34.50 before a reversal lower, but these 2 stocks appear to be tracking each other, so likely to peak and reverse lower together

CBA

Long term this could be close to ending a large WXY correction

Short term i suspect this is now in a 4th wave and could target towards $65-62

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD

A small minor low here should complete a C wave of a flat pattern, which is likely ending a larger [X] wave and setting up a move towards 1.0700-800, so a good potential setup for a swing trade

I am really looking for support to be found around the 1.000, the 200DMA sits around that area as well.

For swing traders this is a great looking setup and the exact sort of setup that Elliott Wave traders thrive on.

So traders want to be actively looking for support on or above 1.000-1.0050

Elliott Wave Analysis Natural Gas

The past weeks reversal i suspect has finally marked an important peak and over the course of the following week ahead i am expecting a significant move lower on NG.

Currently we can label a small 5 wave decline from the last swing high, so a small bounce could be seen the early part of next week, as long as any bounce is a corrective move in 3 waves, that should offer traders the chance to sell this market as i suspect it will set up a 3rd wave which will be a very profitable wave to trade.

The advance over the the past 12 months is a corrective looking move, so argues strongly for the move to be completely retraced over the months ahead.

Target under $3.20