Elliott Wave Training

Are you looking to learn the Elliott Wave principle? Or maybe you already have some experience and want to find the ways to improve your skills better.

Click on this post for details:

http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2012/04/elliott-wave-training.html



Monday, September 15, 2014

BRK Vs SPX (Where Buffett goes so does the SPX) Update

This is an update to my prior update http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2014/01/brk-vs-spx-where-buffett-goes-so-does.html

Initially i thought we may have a potential peak in Jan of this year for this stock , thus i was going on the basis of a potential peak for the SPX. However seeing as the SPX has continued to push higher, its inevitable that BRK was going to follow higher. As you can see essentially BRK is the SPX (or vice vera).

However having followed the SPX higher for the last few months i though it would be a good time to review BRK and see if it offers a clue to the direction of the SPX. I can make the case (well for the bullish case anyhow) that its close to ending wave [3] and a potential decline for wave [4] is close by. If the SPX pulls back in wave [4] we should see BRK pull back in sync,I estimate around 110 can be seen,  there are enough gyrations to warrant caution now for the bulls.


Both the SPX and BRK have met a 1.618 fibbo extenion which is a common area for a 3rd wave




Sunday, September 14, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of EEM

The advance from the Oct 2011 has been a messy, corrective set of waves and clearly supports a corrective wave structure. There are some cycles that strongly suggest a possible peak.



The difference between the SPX and EEM is astounding, i am working a larger double zig zag, which appears completed. The impulsive decline argues for a potential peak, if any bounce is corrective and holds below the last swing high it will setup for more downside.



Bearish below 45.84.

USDJPY Vs YM (Dow Futures)

The move from Oct 2011 is the most important chart to follow in my opinion, as i am still looking for a 5 wave completed advance in the US markets from the Oct 2011.

Overlaying the USDJPY against the YM futures we can see we have a high correlation, the thing to note is if USDJPY is ending a 5th wave from the Oct 2011 lows then it stands to reason that YM should also be ending a 5 wave move.Thus if both markets are now in a terminal 5th wave we should be very close to completing the cycle from the 2011 lows.

So it seems the more important chart to follow is USDJPY, aka JPY carry trade.


For those that have been in the markets will note that leverage works both ways, and once the leverage component of the markets reverses, nasty things happen.

I want to expand on the last Gold post. lets add Gold to the mix.


It still seem the markets are still linked the USDJPY (aka JPY carry trade). So one could reasonably come to the conclusion that until USDJPY reverses, we are unlikely to see a big reversal in either YM or GC.

Of course its never as easy as it seems, we may see some diveregcnes but there is still a high correlation between YM (US markets) Gold and USDJPY (JPY carry trade).

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (GLD)

This is an update to the prior posts (see blog).

Just to show readers that i don't always show the ideas that work out i am updating an idea that never worked out and to hopefully guide readers to the next direction of Gold.

The prior idea has been negated, so the question needs to be asked. Are we now in wave [5]? Or is it still in the wave [4] triangle? I cant say want to see this weakness so quickly, I would have preferred to see a better bounce then setup for a strong decline.

But the market always rules and we need to adjust and follow the market.

I have been targeting $1150 on Gold (17.50 on Silver) for a while, although how it got there was always going to be an issue, we have done really well with the swings on Gold over the last 12-16 months, although the last setup was a failed trade setup.

But rather than cry about it we simply need to adjust the ideas and try to understand where we are on our working map.

I suspect its still in wave D, although if Gold complete pukes under $1220 (approx 117.50-118 on GLD), I will likely concede that this is actually now in wave [5] and on its way to wards 110 which has been a long standing target for a while (Gold under 1150).


Once we see 5 waves from  the 2011 top, its then I will be come "raving" bullish, I have been one of the biggest bears on the planet, but if i see a completed 5 wave pattern from the 2011 highs i will be recommending that members start looking to buy Gold for a larger bounce. its then I will be turning bullish on a weekly time frame.

For now we are watching 118-117.50 for support to see if it buyers support the market, any bounce for wave E will likely fail around 126 before a move lower. A strong break of 117.50 will likely suggest this is already in wave [5].



Elliott Wave Analysis of Palladium

 http://stocktwits.com/message/20737737

I posted a chart on Stock Twits a few months back suggesting this market was likely in a terminal 5th wave and around 900 could seen.We have since hit that target, although there have have been a couple of time I actually did think wave 5 was completed.



However in light of the recent decline it could now have a peak in place. What i am looking for is a 5 wave decline from the yearly highs, that would offer evidence to suggest a peak was likely in place. Any bounce should stay below $865 then continue lower to complete a 5 wave decline, any bounce thereafter in 3 waves will offer a setup to sell again.



This has the potential to see a strong decline now.