Elliott Wave Training

Are you looking to learn the Elliott Wave principle? Or maybe you already have some experience and want to find the ways to improve your skills better.

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Sunday, March 30, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil (CLF/QM)


The decline from the March highs appears to be in 5 waves, currently the bounce appears to be in 3 waves and has met its price projection to $101.50.

I am looking for a strong sign of a reversal, I think offers traders a great setup to sell, we know its wrong above the March 2014 highs.

So the risk is limited.


Another way to play a potential decline in oil is to buy the ETF SCO, if your account is small then ETFs are a great way to take advantage of the moves on the underlining market.

You can look to buy at the market on Monday, stops need to go at the March 2014 lows.

Remember this ETF moves higher as Oil (CL/QM) moves lower.

Good luck

Saturday, March 22, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of DX (aka US$) & EURUSD

Its been a while since i updated the blog, although you can still check out my thoughts on Twitter and Stock Twits.

Or just look right and you can read those twits, i am still active, although i have not really had the desire to write an article, especially about the US markets as there are not doing much these days.


I posted this DX chart on the 13th march 2014 http://stocktwits.com/message/20965942

It appears to have finally broke out to the upside as i wanted to see, the break out was impressive, which came off the back of the FOMC, but whilst the move was strong its still lacking an inertial 5 wave advance, so more upside is needed from the bulls.

Staying above 79.80 supports more upside, so upside from USDCHF should be seen (basically USDCHF and the DX are the same pattern) and downside for EURUSD as that pair is inverted to DX and USDCHF.

So as the DX moves higher we should see EURUSD move lower.


I initially posted the setup we have been following on 2nd March 2014 http://stocktwits.com/message/20545671

Well we got the spike and potential reversal i wanted to see, but like the DX and USDCHF markets, we are working the idea of a possible small 5 wave decline.

Its important for us to see that initial 5 wave move, as until we see that, we cant be sure of a potential trend change.

Staying below 138.50 should see more downside, both the DX and EURUSD are lacking a few gyrations to make an initial 5 wave move.

If we do see the 5 wave pattern as we expect, that will be a great clue to suggest a trend reversal, then we can look to sell corrective rallies on EURUSD, and buy dips on the DX and USDCHF.

The potential for the US$ to rally is HUGE, and IMO is worth following, sentiment is against a US$ rally and that's usually the time the US$ puts in a low when the world is looking for it to crash.

Trade safe

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil (CL)

Back on Jan 12th I posted some charts and ideas of where i thought Oil was likely to go based on the current structure.


True to form it has not disappointed, surprisingly it has moved really well over the past 6 months.

Having targeted the $102 area for wave [2] it has seen that and some more, but its now that i think Oil could potentially suggest its setting up for a new leg lower.

Sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish, the media are talking about Oil once again, although instead of being bearish they are bullish, such is the way, the media are usually the group that is bearish and bullish at the wrong time, usually just before the turn.

Going forward i am looking for evidence of a move lower now to start wave [3] which should be a strong decline that takes out the $90.00 area. on route for lower prices.

Elliott Wave is not perfect, but used in the right hands it is a great tool as you can see, the predication was made public way before the actual advance for the suspected wave [2].

We have had some real good success with Oil over the past few months, it has followed our script nicely since its peak around $112.

If my preferred idea is going to play then the next move should be a strong decline that could test the $80 - 90 over the coming months.

Click the link above to see the ideas, nothing has changed on the weekly chart.

Elliott Wave Analysis of NZDUSD (short term)

The daily chart of this pair is messy and no clarity at all, but that don't mean there is never any trade ideas, if you scale down to a 30 min chart you can see from 0.8391 that there is a 5 wave decline

From 0.8242 i want to see a 3 wave bounce towards 0.8330

That will setup for a potential move lower in another 5 wave decline.

Stops need to be put at 0.8391

Target 0,8150-70

Credit to @GregInBaltimore for bringing this idea to my attention


Sunday, February 9, 2014

Market Report: Dow Industrials Top in Place?

To answer that question truthfully, its way too early to confirm the answer to that question. I have posted previously there is still a bullish wave count that suggests a possible move to 14000 before it moves higher and  targets 17000 - 19000, but to those traders that are flexible and can trade both sides of the trend there is plenty of $$$ to be made for those that can find the right set ups.

My last few articles have been prepping readers for a potential setup for a large decline, so far its not disappointed, many members caught a large percentage of the decline, although we were watching a couple of ideas this past week that suggested a rally was due and after 2 attempts we caught the lows last week, so traders made $$$ from the upside as well

Traders that are flexible and have the right setups are making serious $$$, as the swings we have seen recently are a traders best friend, although you still need to find the right setup.

Anyhow back to the setup in hand.

If you have not been involved on the short side like some members have, then you may have another chance later, but short term this appears to be inside an upwards correction to correct the decline

From 16523 it appears to be a 5 wave decline, so I suspect we can see a large bounce to correct the decline, a 3 wave bounce that remains under 16523 is a setup to sell, so readers that are interested in looking to sell this market need to wait for the market to set itself up.

Whilst its never a foregone conclusion that we are going to see more downside, if the market has put some sort of peak, then I still think we at least see a move back to 14000 or lower.

So if the idea shown sets up, you have a low risk setup to sell, limited risk with a potential target towards 14000.

If the idea is wrong then its a small loss and live to fight another day, but the key to this idea is to see a 3 wave bounce NOT a strong impulsive move that going crazy to the upside, there is a clear setup we are looking for.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead