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Sunday, December 21, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Coffee (JO) Update

Its been a few weeks since my last article see here:


As i wrote back then, the bull trap was something I felt most traders would be tricked into buying and so it seems to be true. Slowly its moving nicely towards the target area of 30, although I want to see KC (Coffee contract) also make a new low as both markets are still short of their respective targets.

Once we meet those target i think both KC and JO will offer a nice setup to buy, most likely right at the time most traders will give up. That's usually the way it seems, but for others to be successful other need to suffer pain.

Elliott Wave is a great method for identifying potential traps, Elliott Wave could have saved the bulls the pain of getting caught up with the hysteria i was reading at the time. The bulls really did get sucked into the hysteria.

However the good news is the pain should be close to ending, its then bullish traders can look to re-buy again. Hopefully by the time members look to buy, many will be disgusted and be bearish this market.

Sunday, December 7, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of the SPX

I posted a short term count on StockTwits a few days back see here:


It never spiked higher as I thought it might, it appears that it could be morphing into a small wedge, we call that an ending diagonal, if that is the case, it can suggest a termination to the rally that start from the October 15th lows. Ideally if I had my way we would see a minor high, then a strong reversal, if a strong gap down under 2060SPX that would support the idea of a potential peak in place.

I am still working the idea that the move that started from the October 2011 lows is potentially coming to an end, that would suggest a significant decline is setting up. A decline that I think will surpass the move we saw in September - October 2014. Already I reading the same sort of comments that I was reading at the Sept highs, I was looking for a significant decline back then.

With the market struggling to break above the upper trend line, it think its a sign suggesting a decline is setting up. In a trending market, 4th waves tend to spike under the lower boundary of the trend channel only to see it move to the upside to finish a 5th and final wave.

So the September-October 2014 decline I think is a larger 4th wave and we are now likely in a 5th wave.

I am targeting the 1800 - 1750SPX area as the initial 1st target

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (GLD) (Update)

A lot has gone on since my last article on GLD see here:


We found the low to wave 3 and looked for a bounce towards 120 for wave 4, as you can we pretty nailed that target for wave 4, whilst many were bullish at those highs we again turned bearish and started looking for wave 5 towards our 110 target which I have had for a while.

Again we found the low to that move and members were looking to buy at the exact time the world turned really bearish, so far that call has turned out to be correct.

The low so far is 109.51, considering we have been looking for 110 when GLD was at 129, i think its a great example of Elliott Wave used correctly.

Looking ahead we like the setup we have atm, whilst its above 110.90 I am still bullish, there is a strong bullish setup here if the market can hold around 113 - 114.50. A 3 wave pullback from the last swing high is a good sign and will support the idea of a strong rally higher.

Readers can look to buy the pullback against 110.90 stops. If the preferred idea works out, I think it could surprise most traders, just like it surprised most traders by rallying higher when it was at 110 back in November.

Are you ready to jump on the bull bus? It not too late.



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Elliott Wave Analysis of Russell (R2K)

The Russell 2000 appears to have decline in a 5 wave decline from the highs at 1191, the subsequent rally appears to be corrective, i think this setup offers the shorts a great low risk entry to sell the market, against 1191 traders can sell the market, the setup has limited risk as we know its simply wrong above 1191.

TWM is an ETF we like, it moves inversely the direction of the Russell 2000, if this idea is correct, readers can look to buy TWM.

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of DAX

The move from 9159 appears to be in a 5th wave, a closer look reveals the prior price action is a sideways messy pattern, i strongly suspect its a triangle, I initially thought the pattern has ended at the point where I marked wave b, but its since morphed into a larger triangle.

A spike to new high is all that is needed, although I suspect this will attempt to make a new all time highs.

A spike higher, then a strong reversal back under 9950 is what i am looking for.