Elliott Wave Training

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Sunday, April 20, 2014


Looking around for an edge, i noticed the TNX yields have yet to make a new low, that is basically the same idea as the USDJPY and NIK-225 ideas and at least one more new low needed

So this current rally i believe is a "head fake" and a trap for the bulls. If i am correct then we should see a reversal in all 3 markets.

The SPX is making minor new yearly and all time highs, but "under the hood" USDJPY and TNX (10 year yields) are not confirming the SPX move, hence i believe this rally is still a trap.

If yields on TNX and TYX are correcting the previous rally into the new year highs we should still see a bit more downside on yields, hence stocks move lower along with USDJPY.

ZB and ZN should move higher etc.

So whilst US stocks are giving an impression of a bullish setup, i caution traders to be too bullish as the moves into the last 2 highs on SPX (ie the last 2 all time highs) were not confirmed by TNX and USDJPY, we saw the result of that non confirmation.

Unless USDJPY and TNX joins the party the move on the SPX and US stocks is probably a "bluff" and the bulls will be trapped again.

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of NIK-225 & USDJPY

Bottom line: Sell Japan, I think both markets still need at least one more leg lower to complete a corrective WXY decline from their respective peaks.


If you take a non-biased approach and simply counted the decline as you see it, you can clearly see there are 7 swings from 105.34 - 100.74, so by definition its a corrective decline, or part of a larger more complex pattern. The move from 100.74 - 104.12 is also a corrective set of waves and thus labeled a corrective bounce.

This would still imply that USDJPY should see a move back under 100.74 to complete a potential WXY correction from 105.34, ideally targeting towards 99.50.

The market is bearish under 104.12, whilst it remains under that area we should see at least a new swing low under 100.74. Resistance is between 102.80 - 103.50 but its subject to the current bounce.


The decline from 16452 - 13943 appears to be a 7 swing move, so by definition its a corrective decline or at least part of a larger more complex pattern.

The move from 13943 - 15236 is again a corrective series of waves, if you take a closer look you will notice the large divergence between the 2 markets, a sure sign of an impending reversal.

When we see this inter-market divergence its generally seen at reversal points, in this case it was a peak for both markets, but we can also see that sort of divergence at major lows as well, 2 markets that follow in each others footsteps suddenly diverge from one another.

Whilst the NIK-225 is under 15236 we should see at least a new low towards 13500 possibly towards 13000 depending on the next decline.

Based upon the current wave structure it still appears to be missing at least another leg lower in both markets, so the moral of the story is to look to sell Japan for a move lower.

USDJPY is bearish below 104.12

NIK-225 is bearish below 15236

NIK-225 = NIK-225 futures not the cash market

Its now closing in on my initial target i had targeted back in  Dec 2013, way before this current decline, such is the power of Elliott Wave used in  the right hands.

If it remains as a corrective looking decline, then it could potentially be a large 4th wave, which would imply new yearly highs to come before the trend is finished from the 2009 lows.

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil (CL/QM)


The decline from the March highs appears to be in 5 waves, currently the bounce appears to be in 3 waves and has met its price projection to $101.50.

I am looking for a strong sign of a reversal, I think offers traders a great setup to sell, we know its wrong above the March 2014 highs.

So the risk is limited.


Another way to play a potential decline in oil is to buy the ETF SCO, if your account is small then ETFs are a great way to take advantage of the moves on the underlining market.

You can look to buy at the market on Monday, stops need to go at the March 2014 lows.

Remember this ETF moves higher as Oil (CL/QM) moves lower.

Good luck

Saturday, March 22, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of DX (aka US$) & EURUSD

Its been a while since i updated the blog, although you can still check out my thoughts on Twitter and Stock Twits.

Or just look right and you can read those twits, i am still active, although i have not really had the desire to write an article, especially about the US markets as there are not doing much these days.


I posted this DX chart on the 13th march 2014 http://stocktwits.com/message/20965942

It appears to have finally broke out to the upside as i wanted to see, the break out was impressive, which came off the back of the FOMC, but whilst the move was strong its still lacking an inertial 5 wave advance, so more upside is needed from the bulls.

Staying above 79.80 supports more upside, so upside from USDCHF should be seen (basically USDCHF and the DX are the same pattern) and downside for EURUSD as that pair is inverted to DX and USDCHF.

So as the DX moves higher we should see EURUSD move lower.


I initially posted the setup we have been following on 2nd March 2014 http://stocktwits.com/message/20545671

Well we got the spike and potential reversal i wanted to see, but like the DX and USDCHF markets, we are working the idea of a possible small 5 wave decline.

Its important for us to see that initial 5 wave move, as until we see that, we cant be sure of a potential trend change.

Staying below 138.50 should see more downside, both the DX and EURUSD are lacking a few gyrations to make an initial 5 wave move.

If we do see the 5 wave pattern as we expect, that will be a great clue to suggest a trend reversal, then we can look to sell corrective rallies on EURUSD, and buy dips on the DX and USDCHF.

The potential for the US$ to rally is HUGE, and IMO is worth following, sentiment is against a US$ rally and that's usually the time the US$ puts in a low when the world is looking for it to crash.

Trade safe

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil (CL)

Back on Jan 12th I posted some charts and ideas of where i thought Oil was likely to go based on the current structure.


True to form it has not disappointed, surprisingly it has moved really well over the past 6 months.

Having targeted the $102 area for wave [2] it has seen that and some more, but its now that i think Oil could potentially suggest its setting up for a new leg lower.

Sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish, the media are talking about Oil once again, although instead of being bearish they are bullish, such is the way, the media are usually the group that is bearish and bullish at the wrong time, usually just before the turn.

Going forward i am looking for evidence of a move lower now to start wave [3] which should be a strong decline that takes out the $90.00 area. on route for lower prices.

Elliott Wave is not perfect, but used in the right hands it is a great tool as you can see, the predication was made public way before the actual advance for the suspected wave [2].

We have had some real good success with Oil over the past few months, it has followed our script nicely since its peak around $112.

If my preferred idea is going to play then the next move should be a strong decline that could test the $80 - 90 over the coming months.

Click the link above to see the ideas, nothing has changed on the weekly chart.