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Sunday, August 24, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of the SPX (update)

This is a follow up to the last post on the SPX http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2014/05/market-report-are-you-ready.html

Back then i was looking at a possible ending diagonal to end wave [5], although i wont bore readers with what happened next, suffice to say its morphed into a ugly impulse wave. Not exactly as i would have liked, but this market has been relentless and destroyed the bears.

Back then i was looking for a number of things to happen, we never even came close to confirming the ending diagonal as it morphed into a 5 wave looking impulse wave. Obviously it stands to reason that we  had to adjust our bias and follow the market higher again. Its now once again that i suspect the bulls need to be very careful as we could again be close to completing a large 5 wave advance from the Oct 2011 lows.



The short term chart suggests that above 1963SPX targets more upside, its a few gyrations short of a completed 5 wave move for wave 5 of [5], so it likely sees the 2000 - 2020SPX area before it would appear completed.

Its then that i think the bulls need to be very careful about the dangers of a strong decline. A decline that could see the 1700-1650SPX area tested. A near 3 year up trend has likely converted most traders into thinking the market can "never go down" they said the same at the 2007 and 2011 peaks.

The market has a nasty habit of changing its mood at unexpected times.

Interested in following our analysis? $20 a month gets you access to charts and edges like this and much more.

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Saturday, August 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (GLD)

The move from 129.51 so far appears to be in 3 waves, (1345 on XAU/USD), as long as the move remain in 3 waves there is still a strong chance we see a move to target 130 again.

We have been using the same script on Gold for a few months and the range we are seeing still fits well for a large triangle which we suspect is a 4th wave.


At this stage i don't think wave E of the triangle is completed, if the short term decline from 129.51 remains as a 3 wave decline then there is still scope for a move back to 130.

The bulls need a strong break above 125 to suggest a move higher, short term a grind lower towards 121 is still possible but the bullish case rests on remaining above 119.43.

So it you are looking to get long Gold, then it maybe an idea to wait for a move above 125 first.

Overall i am still bearish and looking lower, but short term i am not convinced this is in wave [5] and targeting 110 or lower.

Although if we were to see 110 it will be a great buying opportunity, but i will worry about that later.

Thursday, July 24, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold

Post taken from the forum.


From 1324.60 this is not a great looking decline, so i am going to keep some options open, below 1305 is near term bearish, but there could still be a couple of other ideas that we need to watch for.

Above 1305 can start to suggest a move to 1315-1320 for wave [c] of a triangle, or even a move back towards 1325-1330 and a nasty short squeeze, in wave [y].

The key point i want to make, regardless of the move, the market remains bearish below 1345 on a 4h time frame, lets not forget the larger 5 wave decline from 1345.

Saturday, July 19, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of XLF & SPX

From the 11th April lows both the XLF and SPX appear to be working an impulse wave, the Elliott Wave structure suggests that a new high is to come to complete the cycle.

An impulse wave consists of 5 waves, I suspect the last few days the SPX and XLF have been inside a messy sideways triangle and probably started the 5th wave"thrust" to new yearly highs. A triangle is a nasty pattern to trade, but to an Elliottician its a great clue, the most common position for a triangle is a 4th wave.

So just by knowing that we can summarize that the SPX and XLF likely still have a new high to come for a 5th wave and end a 5 wave move from the 11th April lows.

That will then setup for a reversal. So the trade short term is to try and get in early for the "thrust" (so buying longs) or if you are looking to sell, I would wait for the new highs, then sell those highs.

The RSI is confirming that the move we have seen is likely a 4th wave triangle, so we still need new highs to complete its cycle. Once we see a new high on the SPX the next target after that is around 1920-30SPX, this cycle is part of a larger 5 wave move that started from the Feb 2014 lows.

Interested in following our analysis? $20 a month gets you access to charts and edges like this and much more.

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Friday, July 18, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold

Whilst many traders react to the news, we at wavepatterntraders.com react to the charts.

We don't care for the news, we only are interested in the reaction to the news. As you can see we had a great road map to use, nailed many turns on the way, whilst many were bullish at the 1340 area we were bearish looking for a reversal. Once it took out our key support at 1330, we knew then we were selling against 1338.

Members were given the map to use, we knew what to look for and where the idea was wrong.

Once again Elliott Wave nails the gyrations to the tick, Elliott wave in the right hands is deadly. Of course having an expert Elliottician sure helps things go along smoothly.

Its not perfect by any means, but as long as we know where we are wrong and it follows our script, we just keep doing what we do best, finding trade set ups for members to make $$$.

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Below 1345 we are bearish and looking for more downside .