Elliott Wave Training

Are you looking to learn the Elliott Wave principle? Or maybe you already have some experience and want to find the ways to improve your skills better.

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Monday, December 31, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE

Post taken from the forum:

The FTSE has the potential now for the rally from the Nov lows to have ended as there is simply no way i can label it as part of a 5 wave impulse move, it is very corrective and we finally have seen an impulsive looking decline that can suggest far far lower prices ahead

A 7 wave swing is corrective and suggests what Elliotticians call a double Zig Zag or a WXY correction

Which is simply and ABC (which is called wave W) then a X wave, followed by another ABC (which we call wave Y)

So with a 7 wave swing looking completed this looks like high in place and substantial downside is setting up

Idea 1: A small 5 wave decline from 5997 will be seen followed by a 3 wave bounce to around 5950-60 then that will setup a more lower, the stops need to be placed at 5997

Idea 2: A more aggressive bearish setup and it fails to get above 5910-30 and then we see a strong break lower, stops will need to be placed at 5947

You can see the overlapping waves as it struggled to get above the 6000 mark, there is a strong suggestion this has topped the rally from the November lows, many other markets like CAC and Eurostoxx have similar  advances from the same time frame

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Elliott Analysis of USDJPY

Short term i suspect what we have seen over the last few days of chop is a 4th wave triangle. From 81.72 there appears to be a 5 wave move, we have got a decent negative divergence so that's a positive for the idea of this now in a triangle thrust

A strong impulsive break back under 84.00 would help confirm a reversal, as i am still targeting 81.00-81.50 on the 4 hr charts

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

New Trade Alert Swing Setup Service

It seems from the feedback i got from members and non-members, that many simply want trades and simple instructions rather than show a number of ideas, actually show the setup before the move as well as give precise instructions so traders can act accordingly.

So show the ideas from start to finish.

Instructions where to buy or sell, where to take profit and where to put the stops loss etc.

Furthermore as i suspected, swing style setups are what most are interested in, as if they can actually see ideas setup and then execute and close the trade, they feel this is the best way to learn and as well and hopefully make some $$$ and see a trade from start to finish, it seems to be the best way of learning

Now some traders are aggressive and some are placid, but it also has been highlighted that many traders are part time and actually trade whilst they work, so they cant always be near a computer to execute ideas, so the are looking for swing setups where they can put in some simple instructions and casually keep in touch with the trade and not having to be glued to a computer, if they have specific instructions they can take some control.

So taking on board the comments and feedback i am now going to actually only show strong swing style setups and abandon the idea i initially thought was useful and only show ideas that are for swing traders.

The trades could last days or weeks, its up to the market, but they will likely require stops that reflect the trade, so traders need to have the account balance to take the trades, as i will likely be using multiple lots in FX, although if traders dont have a large account they can switch to a mini lot account, or mini CFD account

Or if you dont want to trade ES, then use an ETF or options to trade the direction of the market. Example, SPY and SDS to trade the SPX/ES etc

As well as show stock market ideas, they will need to find a broker that allows them to trade the ideas, as i am going to show ideas from a vast range, simply put the best of the best is going to be shown, high quality, high reward trades

Forex, Stocks, US, European and Asian stock markets, Metals (Gold, Copper, Silver ) a vast range of markets, even some of the grains, although i tend to follow Soybeans more than Corn or Wheat, ideas like the AUDUSD and Gold ideas we had this week etc

I wont be doing requests, I will post ideas that offer the best reward, then its up to the trader to either accept the idea or simply ignore it

I am hoping to find 2-3 trades a week, but its all subject to the ideas coming into play and setting up the way i want them to. I will trade some myself, but i cant trade every idea i see, but equally i will still track any idea i suggest.

These are not short term ideas, they are going to be swing setups, so i will be looking for decent moves in forex upwards of 150-250 pip moves, and in the stock markets, anything from 30-100 points in the SPX etc. So stops have to reflect those ideas

We might not have anything setup for a number of days or weeks, and then the markets setup and we have 4 at once

They are NOT i repeat NOT going to be a 15 min chart set up like i show in the chat room these ideas are for members that are after a swing setup and go about their daily lives but want some simple instructions and then act accordingly as per those instructions

Its highly likely we are going to be using 4hr, daily and weekly charts to show the ideas and hold on to to a trade for a while, so traders must have the patience as well as the mental attitude to wait for trades to work out, if you dont have the patience then this service is not for you.

This service is available to all members, although if you are not a full member it will be difficult for you to understand the ideas in their entirety as you really need to have been following the ideas in the forums to have some idea of what we are going to trade and the types of moves we are expecting

So as some markets are trading chop and poor price action, we simply move and find ideas in another markets, just this past week we had some great ideas in AUDUSD and Gold, just those 2 ideas would have made decent $$$, i know that some members traded those ideas and made substantial $$, as US and European stocks were in zzzzzzzz land, other markets were setting up nicely with low risk high reward ideas.

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDUSD

Following on from my last update of AUDUSD, this pair has reversed nicely and nearly 200 pips from our 1.0550 target, this has been a great trade for members and a nice clear decline which is clearly impulsive looking.

We had a timing for a high on the 14th Dec, the high was on the 13th, so only a few hours out, but i can live with that, i think this pair has further to go as the decline does look bearish.


Post taken from the AUDUSD forum

I have adjusted the decline to reflect the weakness, as the RSI and the actual structure suggest its actually likely ending a small "3rd of 3rd" so small bounces are expected and then further downside, as it don't appear to be ending a 5 wave decline from 1.0586 as i initially thought, it looks more bearish

The alternative in blue suggests a 5 wave decline completed, but the RSI suggests its really only just ending the middle 3rd wave section of a 3rd wave hence the market should see weak bounces under 1.0450 then move lower

So look to sell weakness under 1.0450, if we see a strong move i will adjust as necessary but i think this is the better wave count to reflect price and what we are actually seeing

The 200DMA sits at the 1.0300 so watch that area for support should we see further weakness

Monday, December 24, 2012

Market Report: 3 Down 2 More to Go!

I have been following a number of markets since late September, and I have been looking for new highs and price to exceed those highs made on September 2012. Early this week 2 of those markets took out and surpassed the prior September highs, the NYSE and XLF making those new highs confirmed my original thoughts that the decline from the September high was a clear 3 wave decline, which I have maintained only to the cries of the bears telling me it is the start of some gigantic market crash.

Well the DAX made a new yearly high as did other European markets earlier in the month, now we have the XLF and the NYSE making new highs above the September 2012 high. So the bears that were counting those markets as topped in September have got that completely wrong, which does not surprise me at all considering they are not respecting what price is suggesting.

Why did they get it wrong? Well its simple, it was a 3 wave decline, NOT a 5 wave decline as some Elliotticians tried to count it.

Why is this important?

Well a 3 wave decline in an uptrend is a corrective pullback and should see new highs as we have seen this week on the NYSE and XLF, I have been a working a theme with many markets and patterns and it seems we are only pieces away from a full set. The DOW and the SPX have yet to exceed their respective September highs, so whilst the market is not showing signs of a strong reversal, I am going to continue to give the benefit to the bulls, to run the market higher and take out the buy stops that will be sitting at those highs. Not only would it complete some ideas I am working with, but it will also likely turn the majority of traders and the media bullish at precisely the wrong time.

Just the way I like it. Trader's getting mega bullish at the highs, like they were at the highs in 2010, 2011 & 2012


This market can stretch a bit higher, which would help my ideas of seeing the DOW and SPX see that new price high above the September 2012 high, which would complete their ideas. It's only just touching the target zone, so a bit more inside would setup up nicely as there is also a strong area of resistance just above that should pose as significant resistance, around 8665-8800.

Non Elliotticians can see the basic bearish wedge shape and the lack of strength to make a new high with a new price highs suggests that the market is in a topping phase, and if my main wave count is correct as shown we are setting up for a large move lower soon, although I still ideally want to see the DOW and SPX exceed their respective September 2012 high first.

Target is a test of the March 2009 lows round 4000.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/28176/market-report-3-down-2-more-to-go

Friday, December 21, 2012

Time to get out? (ASX)

With potential patterns on all 3 markets, AUDUSD, HG (Copper) and ASX now met their objectives, we are seeing a reversal in AUDUSD and Copper, the ASX is a little behind the curve, but you can see how the AUDUSD and HG markets tend to give a little warning 1st

So the question is:

Q: Is now the time to get out of Australian stocks?

A: I think the bulls need to think about taking some $$ of the table, having hit my 4650 target, i would be a seller if i owned Australian stocks and take the $$$ and go and enjoy the New Year and Christmas time without any stress

If the ideas change you can always get back in, but you cant get your $$ back if you see a hard sell off and you are not prepared.

The ASX is getting ahead of itself and the patterns from the 2011 lows in many Asian markets are suggesting a setup to reverse, particularly the Hang Seng (HSI), which has a high correlation with the ASX, as does Copper.

The don't ring the bell at the top, but clues from other markets could be suggesting the time has come to take profits and be cautious.

Thursday, December 20, 2012

Market Report: Using Goldman and JP Morgan to Predict Turning Points

Goldman (GS)

A couple of stocks I like to follow are GS and JPM to forecast pivot turning points in the US stock markets, particularly the SPX.

You can see how JPM and GS appear to be tracking the SPX well and that it's my belief that if we can track potential Elliott Wave counts in both Goldman and JPM, we can find an edge to the US markets and use that information to forecast major peaks and turns in the US stock markets.

If you overlay SPX, GS and JPM with each other, there is a clear bonding between the 3 markets.

SPX versus GS and JPM

Read the rest at : http://www.safehaven.com/article/28134/market-report-using-goldman-and-jp-morgan-to-predict-turning-points

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Market Report: Gold Vs Gold Stocks ($HUI) who is leading who?

The Gold stocks have failed to deliver on my expectations of a move higher and it has caused me to re-think the direction of the yellow metal.

The past few weeks I have suspected that Gold stocks and Gold was a corrective pullback but should have been a shallow pullback, relative to the ideas I was expecting. With the breakdown in the $HUI, it strongly suggests Gold and the Gold stocks could be in some trouble.

HUI versus Gold
Larger Image

When you look at this chart, you can clearly see that the Gold stocks and Gold move well together, but it's when they diverge that it becomes an issue.

The $HUI has been underperforming the price of Gold for a number of weeks, but it's the latest breakdown that should be of concern to the bulls in both markets.

Back in April last year whilst Gold has hovering around the $1650 area, those that were watching the Gold stocks were one clue ahead of the move as it was suggesting that there was an arbitrage between the 2 markets. The same is setting up again, clearly one market is either behind the curve or ahead of it.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/28082/market-report-gold-vs-gold-stocks-hui-who-is-leading-who

Saturday, December 15, 2012

Additional Subscriptions

I have received a few requests for just one off markets such as Gold, EURUSD, or AUDUSD etc

Traders wanted regular analysis of just one market that they trade, but don't really want any other markets.

Its not something i really considered but talking with a few people that have emailed me, i am willing to setup individual groups if there is enough interest for special markets.

For example:

If you only trade EURUSD etc, then i can setup a group in the forum or potentially use my other word press site that i can post analysis on that market only.

So you simply would subscribe then view the posts for the market you requested as any other member would.

Or maybe you only trade the SPX, ES or just the AUDUSD  and wanted regular analysis for that individual market

Each market that you request is $12.50 per month. If there is enough interest then i will seriously consider opening up specific groups.

So if you actually want a number of markets, its probably not going to be beneficial to you to subscribe to them separately as the subscription charges are such a small fee anyhow

See link: http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/topic/647-subscription-packages-services-offerred/page__pid__12411#entry12411

But this would be for traders that are after one or two specific markets but on a regular basis

All enquires can be sent to enquires@wavepatterntraders.com

Please let me know which markets you are interested in

The markets i cover on a regular basis are as follows






Friday, December 14, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

The relentless moves in the JPY pairs is impressive to say the least, truly a remarkable run we have seen in some of the JPY crosses, some pairs like the EURJPY and GBPJPY have seen massive gains.

Although not one to be outdone the USDJPY has followed in sync, only now i think its nearing a potential high that should yield a decent pullback of 200-250 pips.

Although any pullback is expected to be just a correction in the larger picture from Oct 2011.

I had a 85.00 target penciled in for this pair, and at the rate its going it will be seen shortly, although i cant say i thought we would see it so quick, i was looking for a timing high in sometime in January as you can see from this cycle chart.

From the October 2011 lows I am working a flat correction and it appears to be in wave [3] of C,move, it still lacks the last few gyrations for the move to have the right look to complete the overall look, hence the timing of a cycle high in January still looks to be on target, once wave [3] of C is complete we should see a correction in wave [4] for a few weeks that takes it into January 2013 and then potentially a major top early February 2013.

When you take a closer look into this pair, it appears to need a minor dip for a small 4th wave then a push higher to end a larger 3rd wave before a meaningful pullback that should see a move towards 81.50-81.00

Overall the move from Nov 2011 appears to be a corrective move in the long term trend that has been ongoing for many years in this pair and i suspect that at sometime in the future we should be coming back to test the 75.00 area.

Are you interested in following this pair and many more? for $30 a month its probably the best $30 you will spend on forex analysis, but then dont take my word for it, sign up for the 4 week free trial and see for yourselves.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDUSD

This pair has been a tough pair to track let alone trade, its a clear corrective advance since Oct, but like most forms of corrective move, they have a habit of morphing and making our lives tough

However it finally appears that we have met its object at 1.0550

Its not been easy and i kinda wished i could of just ignored the last 6 weeks or so and fast forward to today ;-)

But now that we have arrived, it looks like we could be within the finish fine

We have a price and timing setting up, with the prior fractals of the last set of waves hit, we also have a timing setting up for the 14th, so as price and time come into a confluence we should be close to a reversal that should take this pair a lot lower

So from 1.0550-600 i am actively looking for a top and strong reversal

Previous posts:



Conservative traders can wait for a strong break under 1.0450 to help confirm a reversal

Aggressive traders can look for a strong break under 1.0500

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of BAC (Bank of America)

From the May lows there appears to be a virtual text book 5 wave advance, although in the 5th wave it appears to need a dip for a small 4th wave and then head higher for a final 5th of 5th wave.

So stock traders can look to potentially buying some puts once this looks completed as i suspect it could also align with the US stock markets finding a major top as well.

Watch for a RSI divergence between the 5th and 3rd waves and that's a good sign the market is near a peak, currently we have that divergence which supports the wave count.

Monday, December 10, 2012

Market Report: Long Term Elliott Wave Analysis of SPX

 SPX Long Term

My preferred wave count is similar to the idea I posted some weeks back on the DAX and that I suspect the SPX is inside a 5th wave for an ending diagonal so likely to chop higher into Jan-Feb period next year before a meaningful high. It would need a seriously strong break below the 200DMA on the SPX before I would switch to an alternative bearish idea, whilst this market continues higher I still prefer the bullish option over the bearish option.

Although I am certainly no perma bull and calling for SPX 2000 or anything like that, recent price action over the last few days suggests the market is simply correcting the advance from the Nov 2012 lows and likely to push higher once the correction has finished.
Read the rest here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37963.html

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

Having some knowledge about your chosen market before hand is a great asset and i encourage every trader to do some homework before you take a trade as you can not afford to freeze in moments of high volatility

Friday we were looking for the end of a 5 wave move on the EURUSD pair, as this starting to approach our target zone, i penciled in 12875-129 for a potential low on this pair

Having already known that 12875 is a huge area of support on a daily and weekly level, that was the 1st area of support to watch for, the round figure of 129 was always going to be a point of support as the markets love round numbers, psychology and all that stuff

Furthermore as we were in a suspect 5th wave of an Elliott Wave impulse move it was another factor to take into consideration.

I had a fibbo targeted as well just above the 129 area, so that was an area of support and combining these things together made sense to start to get out of shorts at the intended target band.

When you make a plan regardless if the markets continue further or not, you need to follow the ideas from start to finish, if you say you are going to cover a trade at a certain area, you should carry out those thoughts as its good discipline for when you need to take a loss, as if you dont follow through on your ideas it creates bad habits and those are deadly as they can lead to a bad trade where you refuse to accept you are wrong

The target band was 12875-129, as soon as this pushed under 129 i covered shorts, it may of moved far lower, but it may also bounced aggressively and i would have lost the gains i had at the time

With a 5 wave decline that was the 1st caution to get out of shorts, secondly the fibbo wave [v] target was hit, so that 2 areas of caution

Thirdly i already knew where support was at 12875 and it was weekly support, the low was 12876, and the bounce went as far as 12950 (so far)

But as i suspect a 5 wave decline is in place so the odds switch to a setup for a bounce and could see 130-13050, so a 5 wave decline gives us some price action to work with now, as if we see a 3 wave bounce then it sets up a move lower stops at 13127 (last weeks high) and target towards 128 as the next target

Just a little bit of effort and knowing your market can save you a lot of pain and save you $$ as well

Lazy traders make lazy trades, diligent traders make excellent trades, you decide what type of trader you want to be.

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURAUD

Looking at the long term charts of this pair, it potentially suggests a major low in place as i can count a large degree 5 wave move from the 2008 highs

Current price action is likely to decline towards 121-121.40 (thats the target) before wave [2] is in place

So short term/medium i am bearish but actually long term bullish on this pair

Past week price action

We went into this week with 2 ideas i  could not be sure which idea was setting up, but with some of the other EUR crosses looking like tops (EURCAD was a gem) i fancied a strong break lower

But i wanted to see a reaction from the 12550 area

Well we pushed right against that level in the week, but a failure was a bad sign for the bulls

By Wednesday we had a great low risk setup to sell against 12520 before the ECB, i personally took this trade, well why wouldn't i it was a great idea with low risk :-) just the way i like them

With a little help from the ECB price took out our key 124 area, that confirmed the idea and further supported that the recent advance was a corrective move so a strong sign that a move to 121 is needed to finish wave [2]

Staying under 124 is bearish sign and further supports our ideas

Friday, December 7, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of CAC

From the November lows its a tall order to find a 5 wave advance, the overall look is best counted as a 3 wave advance, and currently a small ending diagonal for wave [c]

The good thing about this pattern is we have a clear risk control point at 3644 as that is where the idea is wrong (wave v must be shorter than wave iii in an ED)

A new high is required, or evidence of a potential truncation by a strong decline under 3680

If you look at the RSI, thats a clear sign of weakness and is a postive point for the idea shown, so watch for a new high and strong reversal under the red line

Remember 3644 is our risk cut off point

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDUSD

Post taken from the forum

The more this keeps failing to break down the more i think this is still inside wave [b] of the larger wave [y], so whilst it might come back and test 1.0390-80 to end wave [b], there is an option of a potential small [b] wave triangle

If this remains sideways and we dont see a strong breakdown, whilst it is above 1.0336 i strongly favor the market has unfinished business with 1.0550

The smaller [b] wave triangle is valid above 1.0392

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

Post taken from the forum:

There are 2 ways to look at the advance.

Idea 1: Currently in an impulse wave and i suspect higher prices over the coming weeks, as long as it remains above 81.00 it should be supported by the buyers and move higher

Idea 2: A WXY correction although the same areas apply as long as this pair dont see a strong break under 81.00 i think both ideas suggest more upside

Currently it looks very corrective and i strongly suspect this is indicating more upside once any suspected corrective decline ends

Bottom line is that i think this market is very bullish above 81.50 and some sort of corrective decline from 82.83, either a triangle or a 3 wave decline above 81.50

Elliott Wave Analysis of Google (GOOG)


This pair pushed a little higher than i initially thought and just pushed just above the 2007 highs, which was a natural place for buy stops, the fact that its declined in a 5 wave decline suggests that there is a very high probability that GOOG is setting up for a strong break lower

With a 5 wave decline and a potential 3 wave bounce to the 50% retracement and inside the area of the prior 4th wave of one lesser degree, this is a good spot for a strong reversal

The bears need to see a strong break under $680 then $658 to confirm the advance is a likely a 3 wave and more downside is expected

So this could be a terrific play to buy some puts, as the expected next move would be under $560

Monday, December 3, 2012

Market Report: Using Elliott Wave on Stocks

Many Elliotticians and traders feel that you can't use Elliott Wave on individual stocks and that it's only for selective markets. I actually disagree with that statement; Elliott Wave can be used on a number of markets providing you have good volume and a number of participants to make up the collective opinion needed to move price around to creative the waves.

Now I will say that a penny stock is hardly likely to get the attention of big hedge funds, but large stocks such as AAPL, IBM, GOOG etc are big stocks that have a lot of shares and big volume, those are the stocks where Elliott Wave can be applied.

Here are some examples I would like to share.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27900/market-report-using-elliott-wave-on-stocks

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Asian Markets ASX, HSI, SET100, NIK-225, KOSPI, SENSEX

I have decided to open the Asian forums for the rest of December. Although i never actually offered a service on these markets, they were provided for members as an "add on" to full members (only full members have access). They were generally requests from members.

I tend to update them when something has either negated the idea, or if a market is nearing a suspected conclusion.

Its built up now to around 6 markets from the Asian area.

Markets included are: ASX, HSI, SET100, NIK-225, KOSPI, SENSEX

They are not updated that regularly, as mentioned i don't offer a service for updating these markets on a regular basis (there does not appear to be enough interest), they are generally for swing traders as most of my clients are from the US and European countries so i focus on those markets from the US and Europe.

But i do occasional requests on stocks or other markets if a member requests it.

Click here: http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/forum/59-asian-australian-stock-markets/


Any questions you can contact me via Twitter or email to: enquires@wavepatterntraders.com 

Thursday, November 29, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURO STOXX 50

From the Sept 2012 lows i suspect this is working a complex WXY correction, i am looking for a move into the 2600-2700 area although from the last swing lower some sort of 3 wave bounce is all that is required

Ideally it sees towards 2700 but that might be based on seeing the DAX near 7600 and the SPX near 1480

But once this idea is finished i suspect this advance is completely reversed and target under 1900

Elliott Wave Analysis of the DAX

From the March 2009 lows we can clearly see that the market resembles a 3 wave advance, this is a key component to Elliotticians as it suggests the advance is a corrective move against the decline from 2007-2009.

If you look closer you can clearly see what looks like a wedge shape. I am currently working an idea on the SPX to see a new yearly high around 1480-1500SPX either into the year end or the start of next year.

Hence which I think the DAX is likely to drag other markets higher, you can also see the 3 wave decline from the September 2012 highs, this is a strong sign that the US markets likely made a corrective decline and this idea fits in with my long term ideas for the US markets as well, to run up and test the Sept 2012 highs around 1480 on the SPX.

Currently I think the DAX is working an ending diagonal and now in wave [5], so a target towards 7550-7600 is favored, which should see the SPX see that new high I want to see for its pattern.

The advance has been a strong move, but we still need to see some sort of 3 wave move, I suspect it start to get choppy as it enters 7400-7500 area, but overall I am looking for a new yearly high to complete the ending diagonal idea.

To non technicians you can see the bearish wedge shape, although on this scale it can still take a few more weeks to finish as it’s lacking a new price high.

So the bulls really need to stay focused on this idea as the market approaches my target band I strongly suggest caution for anyone still long this market, as if my interpretation is correct and we make a new price high, the expectation is for a strong reversal, one that could ultimately suggest this market is going back to test the Mar 2009 lows and target 3500.

Until next time 

Have a profitable week ahead