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Monday, February 27, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD

Quick update to this idea, a great text book 5 Elliott Wave move and the expected reversal,

Currently it looks like wave iii off the highs, so expecting to at least see a small 5 wave decline, then should setup for a bounce.

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE

Is the high in place??? we will find out very soon, but readers of the newsletter (which is still free by the way, as its a trial) as well as members were aware of the short term risk for this idea

Are we on our way to 4800 again?, time will tell

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/GBP

From a thrust for the triangle this would look much better with a new high and setup for a big reversal lower, its tough to label it completed from the wave [e] of the triangle, but if this pukes much lower then going to have to force the count

Holding around the 382 retrace of wave [iii] is good as it suggests a wave [iv], a strong break under 0.8400 will suggest something more Bearish

Bulls need a break back above 0.8484

Sunday, February 26, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD

Although this is not a pair i follow, i found this an interesting setup and could be a short term trade for aggressive traders, from the lows, it appears to be in a 5 wave advance, so i think a correction at lest is setting up and one that could be starting next week

It looks a great example of a text book Elliott Wave 5 wave advance

So i suspect at least a move towards 15850 in 3 waves or completely retrace the advance if this is involved in a expanded flat and see sub 156

Market Report: Is Oil About to Crash the Markets?

Do I or Don't I?

I decided not to bother, what you ask? writing more of the same about the US stock markets, It don't need a genius to write that the US stock markets are in a coma and stuck in the ICU room waiting to come back into the real world. Although nothing has really changed from the current ideas I am reluctant to post more of the same stuff when nothing really has happened.

The readers that have subscribed to the trial newsletter are keep update, if your still interested details are here: http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/topic/833-new-service-newsletter-launch/
Its currently free and a chance to see some of my other work.

I can write some interesting articles when the markets actually move. So I personally would rather write about something that might be of interest to readers.

Read the rest here.

Friday, February 24, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/JPY

Strange count, but i only count 7 waves from the Jan lows, but i suspect near the end of [iii] so a pullback should be imminent probably back towards 125, so a potential selling opportunity

New Service (Newsletter) Launch

2 weeks into the release of the trial letter, its going well, i have received some great reports from the readers, although the US markets are still in a zzzzzz fest, the gold and silver ideas worked a treat.

So if your looking check it out, the details can be found here.

Its free while its in a trial, so you got nothing to loose

Elliott Wave Analysis of PCLN (Price line)

From the Oct 2011 lows, it looks like this is looking completed and i suspect like AAPL its one of the few momo stocks that has ran its course

Finally we see stocks like IBM put in that new high i have been waiting for, so suspect this is trying to signal reversal

Got puts??

ES Folk Resistance

Globex ES still grinding against this mid channel line, and it does appear that we needs to test the May highs to see if there is any stops sitting up there, its an obvious place to find out if we have stops from the shorts

There we find out if a double top, the RSI is diverging still and suggesting this is looking toppy

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Natural Gas

I see a lot has been written about NG (Natural Gas) the past few weeks, although i can understand why, as its at multi year lows, however i kinda think its still got a bit lower to finish this long term idea

If you look closely it appears as a small poss triangle, so a push to the red line area seems possible from here

The Elliott Wave count is a large WXY so should be finishing up very shortly, although this is not your everyday market that moves around aggressively

Sunday, February 19, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/JPY

This pair has been on a rip higher over the past few days, but i thought i would take a look to see if it offers anything, so far i suspect its in an impulse and my guess is in wave C as the long term trend is down still

Any 3 wave rally could be wave [4] of an ED (Ending diagonal) on the daily/weekly time frame

Above 78.20 the trend remains up, but there is strong resistance at the 80.00 area and i suspect sellers will attempt to defend

Is a multi-year low in place??? i am not convinced yet, a 1x1 measured target where C=A is around the 80.00 area

And there there still looks like a larger wedge potential on the daily time frame which could still suggest this will be a 3 wave rally for wave [4]

Short term it looks like a few more gyrations are needed to finish wave C

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of BAC

After a 5 wave advance from the DEC 2011 lows, this appears to be have started something more meaningful and at least a substantial correction to this Text book looking 5 wave Elliott Wave advance

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY

Short term there appears to be a 5 wave advance from the red line area, and potentially a larger 3 wave rally from the blue line area, so against the last swing high at 103.49, there is a setup to sell a corrective bounce around 102.75/103.00 and look for a move towards 101.30-101.00

Stops at the last swing high 103.49

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

NYSE McClellan Osc

Yesterday saw some heavy readings in the A/D line, and far more Bearish than price is suggesting, if you look carefully the summation index is starting to roll over

Thats a longer term indicator, the short term indicator is the NYSE McClellan index

Now i am not a volume analysis trader, but when i see clues like this at the top of a trend and with a suspected 5 wave count off the Dec lows, it tells me the Bulls need to be on DEFCON 2

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/CAD

Whats the Elliott wave count on the daily time frame??

Frankly i don't care, i just know that it appears as a 3 wave move, and i can control risk now to 13192, if this idea is correct and ended a 3 wave advance from the Jan lows, then under 129 is expected from here

A move back above 13192 negates this idea

Now the last high might be only wave [w] and the decline if it fails to break under the lower trend line could be labeled a [x] wave, but 13192 confirms or negates the current decline as a 3 wave drop, the Bears need to push this under the lower trend line

Monday, February 13, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of DOW

The same Elliott Wave Count I am working on the SPX is the same on the DOW

So based off the decline and if it holds up above 12300 or not will confirm or negate this idea

The next decline is key to help confirm or negate this idea

ES Fractals

We now are into the timing band based off the prior fractals, Day 53 is Sunday ie Globex ES open in US

So both time and price have been met, the chart is a copy of the one i posted in this weeks article on Safe haven

See here.

But essentially time and price have now been met based off the DNA from 2010 and 2011

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (SPX)

There appears to be 5 waves from the Dec lows, so if this count is setting up we need to see a strong reversal back under 1280SPX or an alternative idea is setting up

As where i label it [a][b][a] off the Nov lows you potentially can have a [i][ii][iii] and hold up around 1290/1300ES

This is my preferred Elliott Wave Count, but the alternative is that a decline stops around 1290-1300ES based on the decline will confirm or negate the ideas

Sunday, February 12, 2012

New Service (Newsletter) Launch

Over the past few months i have received a lot of interest asking for a service that helps more swing traders. It seems a lot of traders want something to fill in the gaps, and ideas on direction for weeks coming ahead etc

Ie the weekly or monthly view, not so much an intra-day view

Members that have limited time because of other commitments such as family, jobs, businesses etc

So i carefully thought about this, and going to do a trial run and attempt to produce something that i do think will help and offer substantial value to members, probably for 1-2 months as i try to adjust to members needs, based off the feedback

I am planning to launch a newsletter service in a few days maybe even starting from Sunday/Monday 12/13th Feb

Initially i am just looking for interested parties so if you are interested please can you send an email to enquires@wavepatterntraders.com

In the header just type "PDF Newsletter"

Read the rest here.

Market Report: Locked and Loaded?

Once again the freight train that is the US stock markets continues to push on higher, although there were some potential vital clues on Friday and something's that we are watching closely.

The risk FX pairs I like to follow showed some important price action that could be a vital clue for a reversal.


After hitting my target window of 1.0760-1.0800 this pair decided to chop around for a few days and frustrate traders, although you can clearly see the wedge shape and I suspect that we could have an important high in play, although we do need a bit more early on Sunday/Monday to help confirm.

If the high is in that I have been looking for, a great move should be setting up in risk trends, so we are watching closely on the risk FX pairs.

Read the rest here.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Cocoa

Getting there slowing the Elliott Wave count still has a target much lower than current levels

This appears to be the silent crash that no-one is talking about, yet why is chocolate so expensive!!!

Friday, February 10, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD

From 15233 its been one impressive rally, and i think one to put in the record book, i don't recall many occasion's of seeing a 800+ rally in such a short span of time, but then the decline into that low was equally impressive

Is the high in place? well track back to a post i made for members on 14th Jan 2012

Targets were either 158 or on wards towards 162

Fast forward i find myself trying to decide if we are going to continue or fall short as a poss running flat, but with a suspected 5 wave advance i am now focused on trying to confirm if indeed the high is in as a correction or a complete retrace of the advance should be setting up, but the focus is at least a retrace towards 155

Either Elliott Wave count i suspect should be near a reversal


The Spread between the VIX and SPX is now at levels where we should see a reversal, although i still have a timing chart based off the prior DNA of the rallies we saw in 2010/2011 that has a timing window on Day 53 which is Sunday (using Globex ES chart)

But we have met price target based off those rallies using the DNA structure, so i wouldn't get too hung up about timing

The previous major rallies were 53, 55, 63, 65 day rallies from the March 2009 lows

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE

Currently still within the realms of a correction move off the Oct 2011 low

Now whilst other markets have shown more upside potential the FTSE has lagged somewhat and barely at a measured 1x1 move at 5955 where Y=W

I still consider the actual advance as a correction as this stage, although other markets are really pushing any Bearish potential here

But i am working some ideas in the USD/CAD and AUD/USD pairs that suggests an aggressive reversal to set up

See previous postings, those ideas have not changed although the ES chart i posted a few days back is on day 50 so getting nearer to time fractals based off the 2010 rallies (previous fractals were 53 and 55 days)

The suspected advance atm is a 3 wave move labeled [X] and potentially a move back to see the Oct 2011 lows again

Any continuation higher in stocks and aggressive buying in AUD/USD and selling in USD/CAD will suggest the market has other ideas and likely kill the ideas i am currently working

As with everything risk is involved in every set up.

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD

So far its a bit short of the target zone but it may or may not drop short.

If i had my way i would like to see a push just under 0.9900 to clear out stops and then see an aggressive reversal

It looks like we have the same crew that were loving the US$ at the highs telling us they hate the US$ at the lows

Same ole same ole

Traders love buying the high, and don't want to buy the lows

My work suggests a potential setup and a great one as well

Now nothing is ever certain and it would be wrong of me to say its a 100& sure thing, as NOTHING is 100%, but lets just say i prefer to fade the crowd at suspected highs and lows

The crowd is not always wrong, as this may well puke, but then i would only take a small loss anyhow as unless i saw a strong reversal i would consider this idea as a failure

But right now i am liking this idea very much, and looking to be a buyer at this area

We have some fibbo support as well as some strong support around this area at the 0.9900 area

But a run under the wave W lows (Oct lows) and see a rally thats aggressive is what i want to see

The alternative is a crash like move that see this under 0.9400

This is a key FX pair along with AUD/USD as if the trends continue then the trade is a full on risk setup

USD/CAD puking and AUD/USD rallying is a "risk on" and that says stocks remain higher

However if this pair reverses along with AUD/USD then you have a "risk off" setup

Monday, February 6, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of CVX

Another major DOW component with a weight of around 6%, it appears to need a new high much like IBM to finish a potential Ending Diagonal

So i am watching both these for clues to a reversal set up

In order to start some aggressive move higher, it would need to blow these counts i have shown on IBM and this stocks before i could really embrace some sort of move thats goes to infinity in US stocks

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL

AAPL is to the NDX as IBM is the DOW

With what i think is a 5 wave advance completed and hit a much awaited target of $430

We are now at a point that the Bulls imo should take note, as a reversal from here could be an aggressive move and one that could just surprised many

In order for the market to go off in some massive upside move here, i would like to see both the IBM and AAPL ideas blow away 1st

Elliott Wave Analysis of IBM

Anyone that follows stocks knows that IBM is to the DOW what AAPL is to the NDX

What that means is because the weighting affect, the DOW gets a considerable boost when its in sync with the main weighted stocks just as IBM as its around 10-11% last time i checked


So if its working an Ending Diagonal, then we could be days away from an important major high and one that could surprise many holders of this stock Warren Buffett anyone?

I have posted 2 Ending Diagonal set ups on US stocks those were AMZN and NFLX, you can read those in the articles i have written.

NFLX was at 300 when i suggested that is was ready to roll over, of course the rest is history as it went as low as $65

AMZN the same again, as to this day the highs have not been seen and we are trading at $187 i posted the setup to get out of AMZN when it was trading at $245

I have no reason to think this one will not go the same way, as you can clearly see an Ending Diagonal present, so if my interpretation is correction then we are setting up for an aggressive reversal

Elliott Wave Analysis of AEX

Scanning some of the European markets, i came across the AEX, which appears to have a text book looking Ending Diagonal setting up

Risk is the the red line as wave [v] can not be longer than wave [iii], the RSI suggests that of a signature of an ED

All in all this is a VERY low risk setup for a potential move back under the Sept 2011 lows

Imo that appears as a ABC advance to correct the previous decline that started from April 2011 highs

It would need something very impressive to kick in a Bullish 12 12 12 Wave count here

I dont know nothing about this market, but i know how to count waves and find low risk opportunities, and this is one right here

Under the wave [iv] of the ED is the 1st clue

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD

Well we have finally arrived at my target of 1.0760-1.0800 all that is required is for evidence of a reversal, if you look closer you can see a potential smaller ED which fits in with my short term time frame Elliott Wave count (not shown)

Big area here for a trade which i suspect will be a trend setting move

Bears step up here and smash this lower or they are in trouble

The idea of a high also aligns with a high in AUD/CAD as i have posted a few days back

A strong reversal from the Bears is needed, as we come back to this obvious resistance area, and then a strong reversal back under the 200DMA (currently 1.0400)

If we don't see a reversal and its partner the USD/CAD pair continues to puke lower, that is sending out a "risk on" message

You DON'T want to be short stocks or risk markets such as NZD/USD AUD/USD and stocks if that happens

Watch USD/CAD and AUD/USD they will help confirm if this is the "real deal" of not or if a suspected Bull trap (which is the idea i am working)

1st major clue for the Bears is loss of the mid line then the lower trend line support then finally the 200DMA

Saturday, February 4, 2012

Market Report: Are US Treasuries a Sell?

Impressive gains on stocks, it seems nothing can derail this trend atm.

Finally however we meet some awaited targets, although I will be the 1st to admit I am really pushing the boat here and allowing for the bears to come up with some magic before I potentially revert and relinquish and ideas of seeing a reversal.

Sometimes you got to know when to fold, we are at that point where if the bears don't come up with something, then the likely hood is that the markets are in something special and a test of the Oct 2007 highs are most probable.

I have been more interested in the NDX that any other US market, from a technical perspective if offers more clues that the other major markets.

However we have reached a point where the bears really do need to find some magic or a miracle to derail this beast of a trend from Dec 2011 lows, its exceeded my targets, and I am trying to give the benefit to a potential reversal up here, but if it don't come, then the bears are in trouble.

My original targets were 2400 on the NDX and SPX 1300-1320, but so far nothing to suggest a reversal.

What we do have is price structure, and a very giddy market that thinks that it can never reverse now.

Those same components were in place at the 2011 highs.

But we have yet to see any impulsive price structure to suggest a reversal.

Potentially the trend now from this area is a trend setting move and one that could last out for months potentially a year or so.

Read the rest here.

Elliott Wave Analysis of ZB (30Yr Bonds)

The long term Elliott Wave count of Bonds suggest that this 30 yr trend is potentially coming to an end, although the Bears have tried to push this lower, at some point US treasuries will loose their appeal as the FED thinks it has full control of the Bond markets.

It may think that, but you cant tame nature and eventually whilst you may be able to print to oblivion to suppress rates, if the value of the underlining currency is as worthless as the paper its being printed on, then the objective has already failed

It appears to be in a smaller 4th wave of the final larger 5th wave, although i am open to the idea of a failure, as this week the 10 YR (ZN) put in a new high where as the 30 YR (ZB) failed to do so

So an obvious divergence, and one that might be key

Elliott Wave Analysis of the NDX

Update to the previous posting

We have the 5th wave in for a completed 5 wave count from the DEC 2011 lows, so this is now ready to reverse

If no reversal then the Bears are in trouble, and likely to have a big effect on the ideas going forward over the coming year(s)

Time to put up or shut up

Elliott Wave Analysis of NIKKEI 225

Still appears to be in a long term Bear market from the 1990s, and i suspect still have a date with the 5000 area,

The Elliot Wave count i suspect is in the final stages of the larger [Y] although there is still some room to push higher 1st before what i suspect will be another big move lower

We should have no bizniz above 10K anytime soon

ES Fractals

Using the DNA of the previous rallies in 2010 & 2011, we have hit a potential target zone hit for this current rally, there were 3 rallies that were the same sort of DNA

Is this a 4th?

Currently on day 47

Elliott Wave Analysis of MUB (Muni bonds)

Potentially could be a high on this, although its not exactly the best market to count waves as not really that liquid, although i attempted to count it, i am more interested in this reversing as it tends to be a clue to liquidation type moves as traders are chasing yield now, so running into anything that is giving more than US paper

Have bag holders bought the highs?

Friday, February 3, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/CAD

We have finally got the new high for this idea

If my interpretation is correct, the Elliott Wave count suggests that this is about to see a vicious reversal, one that should be a great trade to the downside

The idea is wrong above the red line, as wave [v] cant not be shorter than wave [iii], there are rules and guidelines when counting an Ending Diagonal (ED)

Therefore this is either correct with the risk known before or it will surpass the red line and kill the idea

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASX 200

The Australian markets have been suggesting a potential triangle, which overall is not Bullish imo, so if the wave E of a suspected wave [X] is in place then this should be about to setup to thrust lower and head towards 3800 for a retest

Its possible that the triangle can morph and we maybe still in wave C, but the sideways nature of the price action over the past 6 months suggests a large triangle and once done we should reverse lower

When price action is like this, it does make the Elliott Wave count a bit tricky and it comes from personal experience that time is the best friend you have when price action is sideways and most times it suggests a triangle formation or some variation of a triangle

Overall price action does not support an aggressive rally higher, i would lays odds say more see 3800 than 4800

But as with everything stops are there for a reason and this has a built in stops currently that is at the area marked with a red line

Thursday, February 2, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Copper (HG)

Copper potentially has a completed Elliott Wave count and one that i am following along with Oil, both commodities have the potential to really accelerate lower from here if my interpretation is correct on the price structure

The decline so far warrants close observation as the Bulls and Bears fight it out over who owns the 200DMA

The Bears need an aggressive push lower to really see this puke hard from here

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of McDonalds MCD

Many Elliotticians believe that you cant use Elliott Wave on stocks, actually you can providing its a popular stock such as AAPL, IBM, GOOG or MCD

As long as there is liquidity, stocks as well as indices can be counted

From the 2003 lows, there is imo a clear 3 wave advance into the recent swing high, having met its 1x1 measured move target, this well could be an important top

The Elliott Wave count suggests its a 3 wave advance, the monthly candle stick showing some promise that we could have an important in progress, follow through on the next monthly candle is needed to help confirm

Elliott Wave Analysis of the Sensex

It looks like a potential low is in place, although i don't know the traits of this market, judging by the price action so far, its a strong move and has the right look for an impulsive move to the upside

From the 2010 highs there appears to be a correction fulfilled as the market has reversed off an Ending Diagonal (ED) and the upside is impulsive looking

When you scale down it further, is suspect we are ending a smaller degree 3rd wave and as long as we don't see a strong reversal below the red line, i think higher prices are looking more likely from here

From an Elliott Wave perspective, it looks a clean enough pattern to trade and buy into any corrective dip that suggests a 4th wave around 16800-16750

Off the Dec 2011 lows i suspect its in the early initial stages of a 5 wave impulsive

Elliott Wave Analysis of the NDX

The trend has been one relentless move from Dec, and i have always considered the NDX/NQ Elliott Wave count to be the primary wave count that traders should be following, as tech leads others follows

So when tech decides its time to reverse so will the other markets imo

Now i wont go into too much details but the ramifications of this 5 wave move from the Dec 2011 are potentially more alarming than you think, the past few months have shaped up into what i suspect is a culmination of a pattern from the 2008 lows and ultimately from the 2000 highs

All in all the bottom line is the message form the NDX/NQ is the one to follow for the US markets in the authors opinion

So looking for a new high where i suspect this should be final a high and eventually roll over

This has exceeded my original target, but it appears that the last few waves are a series of 3s and 4s, so still expecting a final push higher, as i write Globex has put in that high