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Saturday, March 31, 2012


I am big fan of watching other FX crosses of the same grouping and using those for edges on other markets

For example here we can see the EUR/CAD appears to be in sync with the EUR/USD pair from the mid March lows

In fact its been in sync since the mid Jan lows

Anyhow, using the idea of a potential ending diagonal on EUR/CAD (red) we have a clue to the potential reversal of EUR/USD

So i am watching the EUR/CAD next week to see if it offer more evidence not only for the EUR/CAD pair to reverse but EUR/USD as well

There is of course the obvious H&S on both patterns

The advance since the lows made in Mid March is very corrective looking in both pairs

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NOK

A quick update, this appears to have morphed and i supect its in wave [v] now so could be a decent setup to reverse for at least a correction

Monday, March 26, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NOK

I was asked to have a look at this pair, so i suspect if the 5th wave is not in then still on going for a 4th wave, but we should be closed

if it holds around the red lined area i suspect a possible triangle, if a heavier decline then started a correction at least to around 7.500-7.4800 i would have thought as a target

I don't follow this at all, so this is a new pair for me

A move above the blue line will suggest a triangle or on going 4th wave

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/AUD & EUR/AUD

When looking at the EUR/AUD it got me thinking to have another look at the GBP/AUD cross as they move in sync most of the time

It appears that we could have a completed pattern, so it will be interesting to note the direction of both EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD, more so for a clue on AUD/USD and potentially risk on or off into next week

Generally both the GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD pairs push higher when the AUD/USD pair goes lower, so if both the EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD is near or maybe finished their corrective looking ideas, we could be seeing a reversal in the AUD crosses

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL

Time to buy some puts on AAPL?, it sure does like a wedge for wave [v]

If so a strong reversal is suspected to be setting up

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Market Newsletter (Weekend Edition)

While its free i suggest taking a look at the contents in this weeks newsletter



The trial ends on 29th March 2012

Read the rest here.


Friday, March 16, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/JPY

A quick update,as i have been asked, its not a pair i follow, but i can throw my hat in the ring and count a wave or 2

Sometimes i might get lucky :-)

So far its working well, and we have a 4th wave dip as i suspected, although i have not kept up with this pair, i might however have to bring this right to the front of the pack, its got a great looking setup now on a new high

So currently in [v] of a larger [v]

Once completed, i think its good for at least 600-800 pips

If might be ending wave C of a larger flat, if so the next target is under 117

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of KOSPI

A quick update to the readers that requested this (i don't have any clue how to capitalize on this idea)

It appears know we have enough gyrations in place to consider this ready "locked and loaded"

If this idea is correct we are about to see a strong move lower, kinda in sync with my US and European stock market ideas


If you have been watching the markets for any length of time, you will note the high correlation between certain high yielding FX pairs, 2 such example's are AUD/USD and NZD/USD

Although personally i place far more importance on the AUD/USD pair

You can see the huge divergence between the 2 markets, in fact the ONLY time i see this sort of spread is when there is a big move

Most times its the FX markets that tell the truth, so that indicates that the move in stocks is a bluff

Now that is never any reason to follow anyone analysis just because i say its so, check out the times the spread between the 2 markets have widened and the subsequent result

There is an arbitrage here, either the ES is about to reverse and catch up with the AUD/USD pair


The AUD/USD pair is about to play catch up and push higher in what i would suspect is a move that sends stocks to the Oct 2007 highs and AUD/USD towards 112+ in what would be a new round of risk asset buying.

Sooner or later this disparity between these markets will get resolved, the trader that can spot the edge and get the trade right will make some impressive gains

So either buy AUD/USD to play catch up with the ES


Sell the ES to play catch up with the AUD/USD

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL (again)

One day this might actually go down, but it sure reminds me of the NAZ bubble and some stocks that at the time never looked like reversing

Then one day, they stopped!!! oh they crashed and the rush of sellers dwarfed any buyers

Virtually everyone must be long this stock, still got a nasty RSI divergence

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Copper (HG)

I have had to reflect and adjust the Elliott Wave again, as over the past 2 weeks we have seen a sideways tape, which suggests a potential triangle, so suspect a 4th wave and a spike high for a 5th wave

Its been a tough, i have been in this a few times and selling the high each time, getting out for small profits as the market has failed to decline

But we have a solid idea to use, so not going to do much until we see a completion of this idea


A strong break under 370

The back and forth, above/below its 200DMA is the issue atm its not great conditions to trade when its like this, hence i suspect a triangle

Friday, March 9, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD and EUR/USD

Looking at both these pairs together in conjunction with each other, it appears ideally that both need a pop higher as the current price action is a small 4th wave (suspected) then setup a reversal after a 5 wave move.

If the subsequent decline on both pairs is a 3 wave decline to support, it will suggest overall that the DX is still in trouble, as the crosses on the DXY that really shine through for the DXY ideas is the EUR/USD and GBP/USD due to the weighting

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of NZD/USD

So far working well from the triangle thrust, its doing what should be seen, as the move out of the triangle is the last move in a sequence

The reversal has been strong, so no reason to doubt this idea, i am still working the same idea across the risk markets

If they have topped a long standing [B] or [X] wave, then we are on our way to the Oct 2011 lows

There are other Bullish ideas, but i will cross that when i come across any issues, for now, i am sticking with what works

Atm this is working well, so not exactly looking to chop and change ideas till the markets tell me i am wrong.

Either way its been a great trade so far and well in the pips.

Monday, March 5, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Intuitive Surgical Inc (IRSG)

Up until a few hours a go, i never even knew this stock, (shows how much i pay attention to US stocks)

So as it was mentioned in the comments in my last article about AAPL, i thought i would take a quick look and see what sort of chart it looked like

Now i don't know what this stock does or what profits or losses it makes, frankly i don't understand that sort of stuff

I am not a stocks trader, i trade price and price alone, i don't know nothing about the "funny mentals" i could not even tell you how to work out a PE of a stock

Hence you will never ever see me mention about the dark side of stocks.

Anyhow, as soon as i saw this i was like woooooo, now that is a clean pattern

Thats virtually a text book 5 wave advance, it has some clean wave structure and the RSI divergence between the suspected waves 3 & 5 is a great edge

There is more, check out the fibbo relationships between waves 1 and 3, thats a great 2.618 fibbo extension target hit, then the 1.618 ext hit for the smaller "3rd of 3rd"

3rd waves in general either hit a normal standard 1.618 extension of the 1st wave or they extend to the 2.618 extension of the 1st wave in a 5 wave sequence, you can use those fibbo targets to try and work out where the end of a 3rd wave will end

If i was a stock trader, i would be seriously looking to buy puts or some sort of vehicle, as if stocks are setup to reverse, i suspect this goes down quickly

I will follow this with passing interest

You don't get much better looking examples than that, i see those clean patterns on FX not stocks

A great looking 5 wave Elliott Wave pattern

I think at minimum you would see $470-460 or lower if this idea is correct, a strong break of $510 is the 1st clue

Market Report: Is Apple a Blow Off?

Anyone that has studied the markets for a length of time, should really have seen many examples of a blow offs over the past 10 years or so, there appears to be a characteristic that you see just before the eventual reversal.

Read the rest here.

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Market Report: Groundhog Day Meets the Markets

Another day, another week passed and it feels like we are all living a dream and playing the role Bill Murray did in the movie Groundhog Day. Virtually the past week felt like February 2nd.

Still there were some trades around for those traders that were keeping in touch with the markets. The obvious ones were gold and silver.


Having been aggressively bullish from the Dec 2011 lows, coming into these highs this past week, I made in known to members and even the readers of the free trial newsletter that they needed to be cautious as we approach targets as seeing 5 wave advances in both metals from those Dec 2011 lows, had us start to scale out of long side trades, the moves had become very mature, aggressive traders could have looked to sell the metals, but the emphasis was about getting out on long trades and locking in the $.

Great timing, Elliott Wave Analysis nailed it again, it's not always as clean as the metals were showing, but when it's as clean as that, you simply have to take note of it.

Were you taken off guard with the dump?

We were very prepared to lock in the gains and walk away happy that we missed getting hit. Even readers of the trial service could of taken advantage of locking in the $$, and from the email response just after the metals dumped it seems many were grateful for the warnings.

What was the excuse used for the dump in the precious metals? personally I don't care, I saw 5 waves to the upside and we needed to be careful and take the $$ of the table and move up stops to lock the rest in.

Read the rest here.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL

From the last minor swing low at $486, this looks like it still potentially needs a pop higher to finish an ugly looking 5 wave advance, there is a possibility that its actually finished, as per the alt count, but whilst it appears as a possible triangle, i will give the benefit to the Bulls to run it higher

Blow off style moves are very difficult to count let alone trade, think back to Gold and Silver last year, the rally recently in AAPL reminds me of that, it goes up till the very last buyer stops buying, then eventually it will puke under its own weight as the buyers have exhausted themselves

EUR Cross Analysis

When you are unsure of the trend or looking for clues, it helps to use other crosses for clues

In this case the other 2 crosses are well ahead of the EUR/USD pair, so the better sell appears to be EUR/USD, i suspect its waiting on the US$ to get a bid

So that should put pressure on the EUR/USD, if it catches up with the other crosses, the EUR/USD is going to be a great trade

The EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD are already in solid down trends atm

Imo its worth looking at other crosses in the group for edges

Having rallied together on the LTRO bail out fund, its clear that the market wanted more and duly disappointed, so sold off, the fact the EUR/USD has not sold off as hard, makes me want to turn my attentions to sell EUR/USD more than the other 2 crosses

Thursday, March 1, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD

Following on from the previous postings on this pair, there is a potential to get long as we have what appears as a small 5 up from the last lows (marked in red) and against that low a correction now setting up to look higher, risk is to the red line

NQ Trend channel (KISS)

Keeping it simple, until this breaks the lower trend line this is still in a Bull trend, whilst there is some subtle signs, the trend clearly has NOT broken yet

The Bears need a strong break of the 2600 for the 1st clue