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Monday, April 30, 2012

Market Report: Bulls Find Their Footing

The decline that we have seen over the past few weeks has been very corrective and does not support a strong break lower; the result was a strong reversal higher from our targets as expected. If you noticed the AUDUSD pair failed to take out its previous lows so held key support, as well as oil holding the $102 area. As long as you see other risk markets support US stocks I don't see any evidence to support a bearish stance atm.

Read the rest at:


Sunday, April 29, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASX 200

There could be a great trade setting up on this market if you have access to it, the advance is typical of a corrective move seen over the past few months

Generally you see a strong move higher after an initial heavy decline, then a correction and the next move is weak as it simply shows that buyers have not forget about the previous decline and not interested in buying

Presently you have a wedge, which looks like an ending diagonal, so the expected move is a strong push lower back under 3800 as this current move seen over the past few months i suspect is coming to an end

Look at the angle to confirm the buying strength, notice how weak it is compared to the initial strong thrust higher

The thrust higher is the shorts covering their trades, then a pullback then we see weak Bulls trying to push it higher

A great example of a corrective move recently seen was on the CAC, a initial strong push higher, then a correction and a move against above the previous higher, but it lacked the strength to continue higher, thus it "fell apart"

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of DAX

In a 5 wave sequence generally the 3rd wave is the extended move and has 5 individual waves

As you can see previously i expected a new low and a reversal from point 9, so when the 9th move was in place it was natural to expect a reversal.

If came as no surprise to see the aggressive reversal on the upside, as after a 5 wave decline a correction at minimum should be seen.

So even just the basics of Elliott Wave could have saved you selling the lows of the decline which i suspect many traders would have and those that got caught short are paying the price for that mistake.

Posted on 23rd April to members

The Bears must keep it under 6867, although strong above 6800 imo is an issue for the Bears

You need 5, 9 or 13 for an impulsive depending on if any of the impulse waves 1,3 or 5 are extended, so far we are missing a wave to complete a 9 wave decline

We never even came near 6867, after putting in the expected move lower we have done what was expected, and reversed as expected it would

Posted on 24th April to members

With a 5 wave decline on the EURSTOXX 50, CAC and DAX, this is not exactly the place i would be getting aggressive short, i suspect its signaling a bounce to correct the decline, the RSI is diverging, so a small clue to a reversal

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/AUD

Well i guess we know why the AUDUSD went higher as risk on was being suggested via this pair, this is an issue for the Bears in risk markets, as if this gets traction i suspect the AUDUSD goes higher and takes stocks higher (which is being suggested in European markets such as DAX, CAC etc)

So the expected pullback i thought we would see in risk markets wont happen and from next week risk gets even stronger?

Below 12720 the trend is down

So as expected should happen when AUDUSD goes higher along with risk markets, then EURAUD pukes, this could be a real important clue for risk markets such as AUDUSD and ES

Only a strong reversal back above 12720 will start to look wrong for this idea, but above 12750 really needed, this pair needs to be monitored not only for a trade, but for a clue to risk markets especially AUDUSD

The inverse correlation between the 2 pairs is not there 100%, sometimes it skews a little but generally they are inverse to each other

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Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/CAD

So far going well for this idea, we can move stops down to the last swing high and lock in at least 85 pips from our entries

I am still expecting a strong break lower, although even if it were to do something i dont expect, we got 85 pips in the bag, a great trade and i suspect one that was missed as other are trying to trade chop in the other risk markets

Saturday, April 21, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/CAD

Nearly 2 years have passed and this pair has simply gone sideways in a large range that active traders have been trading

We potentially now have a great setup for a 300 pip reversal, and is something we are going to take with us into next week,

Any failure to get above 16030 and sustain that move should see this reverse and see a strong reversal back to the 15650 area, as a min target


The correlation between Oil and AUDUSD is still strong and i dont think you are going to see a strong move lower in risk markets whilst these 2 markets are firm.

The Bulls in both markets are defending key areas:

AUDUSD - 1.0300

Oil (crude) - $102

Each time the bears have tried to take out those areas the markets have held firm, thats a positive for the bulls in risk and the bears need to respect that, dips are buying opportunities against the lows made on 11/04

But i prefer to buy the dips around $102 on Oil and $1.0300 on AUDUSD, as if you are going to see a "full on" risk sell off, those areas imo wont hold, but the declines in most risk markets are corrective atm and support the idea of looking higher in "some" not all but "some" markets

I suspect we are going to see other markets peel away, but a select few are still holding firm, noticeably these 2 markets

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD (Before & After)

Posted 01 March 2012 - 10:49 AM

Thats potentially finished, so bounces can be sold against the highs, as the expected move is a break of 132 then on its way toward the 126

The alt still calls for a move toward 12970 in wave [ii]

Resistance at the 134-134.20 area

I have tracked this every single step up until today and we have made some serious gains, although we are running 2 wave counts atm

Elliott Wave Analysis GBP/JPY (Before & After)

Before and after

Posted 21 March 2012 - 02:20 AM

If this is a small ED then we should be about to reverse strongly from here

Posted Today, 11:14 AM

Like the EURJPY pair, a bounce to around 128,50-129 is a target band, as it should be a sideways weak wave, and then push lower for new lows

Elliott Wave Analysis of CAC 40 (Before & After)

So far this has been doing really well and following the script well

Before and after shots

Posted 17 March 2012 - 01:37 PM

The French CAC looks like 5 waves from the Nov 2011 lows as well, so another market than suggests we should be nearly a conclusion

Posted Today, 10:25 AM

A bounce for a 4th wave would align with the DAX and EURSTOXX 50 so working the same ideas on all 3 markets they are very clean in terms of structure atm

Monday, April 16, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/JPY

Is there a low setting up?, the decline is a very sloppy move, the JPY crosses generally dont count that well, its one of the reasons i tend to avoid this pair, but there could be a decent setup here we are are closing in on a 1x1 target and the gyrations are potentially finished for this idea, so a strong reversal is needed back above 81.00 then 81.50 as the next series of clues

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Sunday, April 15, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Silver

Elliott Wave does not work?

Well thats what many keep telling me.

So why is that i am short silver then? and looking for $30.80

My answer: Go and learn how to use it properly or stop following "so called" Elliotticians who cant count to 10 let alone count Elliott Waves

The Elliott Community knows who can count waves and frankly who is a disgrace to the Elliott Community


A great short term setup whilst the markets are in chop mode, perfect reversal, and aligned exactly with our current long term ideas atm

"This aligns with the Gold move as being a corrective rally and suggest an ABC advance with the thrust wave from [e], so resistance at the 1x1 aligns with the 20DMA

So watch Gold as it enters near $1680"

Gold hit $1680 in exact alignment to this silver idea, simple effective analysis

$1680 has been a great area for us on the upside and downside, i took that trade late last week

Saturday, April 14, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NOK

Probably the 2 least followed pairs i follow are actually showing some clean ideas, always the way

The ones you miss are the star trades you want to trade, but you cant get them all

This looks like a small wave [iii] and under 7.585 we can looker lower

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY

Although on the face of the decline it looks a real mess, but a close inspection can actually reveal a setup that is potentially going to find a short term low

Its partner in crime GBPJPY is showing a similar setup, although the decline is a bit messy for a 3rd wave, sometimes we are simply "forced" into the best ideas we can come up and trade them as we suspect, we place our stop and trade the best idea.

Elliott Wave is an art from the skill of the user, as opposed to a trading method, the skill comes from the technician and his/her experience

I find users of Elliott Wave either love it or hate it, you will know if its right for you

GBP/USD Fractals (Elliott Wave)

As traders, actually humans we are a herd, we do the same things over and over again, so as patterns repeat,we can use those for potential setups, its the basic concept and the building blocks for Elliott Wave theory, although fractals often get overlooked

I am fan of looking at certain waves created from the past and mirroring those to project potential targets along with a valid Elliott Wave count

If the next sequence is setting up for this move (marked in red) we should be on the cusp of a big move lower, towards 152, although the initial support of the 200DMA and 157 will need to be broken as that is strong support

With a potential smaller H&S within a larger H&S, this really does make it an interesting pattern

You will note there are no Elliott Wave counts, i am just using symmetry

Of course it helps when you are tracking a valid wave count, as it builds a picture of evidence, as shown for the obvious wedge formation which we call an Ending Diagonal a very high probability pattern which yielded a great reversal as was expected

Simple Effective analysis

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD

This is a great example of text book Elliott Wave in action and if everything counted as clean as this i would have a very easy job

Saturday, April 7, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GS (Goldman Sachs)

Looks like we have finished the upside in Goldman and potentially finished the move from the Oct 2011 lows, we should be in a strong break lower, with the way the markets have gapped down its probably near the end of wave [iii]

Price target $85, stay short under $123

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of CAC 40

I posted this idea in this weekends newsletter and analysis for members, its been a great move so far, and if the H&S is confirmed, we should be seeing far lower

I posted this over the weekend.

" This is still only a 3 wave move, it feels like its gone to the moon but infact its actually only just pushed above the Oct 2011 highs, that suggest a wave C and completed by the looks of it"

"So key resistance now at 3538"

So far the idea is working well

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD

Can we find a rally here for wave [c] of Y??

If would certainly look better to see a rally, so that the overall looks suggests it would more complete with a new high towards the Y = W target,but its not a pair i follow much, but it could have a great setup if a new high is seen

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/CAD

Looks like an important statement is being made, so far this idea i have been working for the past few months is still working, we have a long way to go for this pair even to correct this advance from 2008

This is what i wrote on the 7th Jan 2012

"Still waiting for this new high, this could be a great trade this year"

Indeed its been a great trade

Sunday, April 1, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/NZD

I suspect this pair still needs a push higher, and that working wave [b] of Y, [potentially a sloppy correction or even a triangle] then one push higher in wave [c] of Y towards the target measured move 1x1 at 1.6532

There is a forced wave count that ended at 1.6394, but its not my favorite idea as there are parts of a forced triangle that are 5 wave moves, so going to look to new highs towards the target for now

When its finished it should be a great move lower, as overall this imo is a correction against the predominate trend

its got a corrective looking and channels well, overall its got the characteristics of a correction