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Saturday, June 30, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold

The recent moves in Gold potentially opens the door for a triangle, as we have seen from the lows made on 16th May 2012 a 3 wave move into $1641

From $1641 we have a 3 wave decline into the lows made this past week at $1547, so it could be waves [a] & [b] of a triangle.

The strong move higher, i suspect is part of wave [c] and could target towards $1630.

Bottom line: Whilst the move we saw last week was agressive, taking into context of the larger picture, there is still no solid evidence to support a meaningful low in place and there is other options such as an ending diagonal (not shown) that could also be considered, if prices fails to push back above $1641.

I dont have any reason yet to turn Bullish on Gold, unless i see a strong break above $1641, only then could we consider other options

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of CADJPY

Following on from the idea over the weekend, its reversed well as expected, overall i am expecting a test of 74.00 over the coming weeks

On the basis we dont see the highs made at 78.64 eclipsed

From those highs we have a 5 wave decline, and potentially now setting up for a move lower, providing the advance remains as a 3 wave advance

Looking closer it appears we are nearing some targets

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ZB (30Yr Bonds)

Having finally reached a long standing target of 148-150 (the call was made back when the media and many commentators were proclaiming the US bond market was dead near 135 this year)

Bonds have come roaring back to burn the Bears for the umpteenth time over the past 3 or so years

Timing is everything as many have found out, if you time the markets wrong and sell the lows when most are Bearish, you end up being on the wrong side of squeeze

I am surprised the Bears have any fur left, with the butchery that has gone on over the last few months.

I personally still dont think the US Bond market is ready to roll over just yet, but having finally met my projections, i am happy to recommend getting short if price evidence suggests it.

But from the March 2012 lows, i dont think the move is completed, As any Elliott Wave enthusiast knows

You need a 5 wave completed wave for an impulse wave, its generally seen that the 3rd wave is the extended move so we require to see a 9 wave advance.

Currently i can count the move as a 7 wave move

Using TLT, we can see that we have a 7 wave move, and from the highs, the decline is somewhat choppy, so i dont have any reason to declare the bond market is dead, the Bond Bull is alive and well atm.

In fact whilst TLT hovers around the 122-124 area, i suspect it sets up for a strong move above 130, and the TYX sees new lows potentially yields around 2.4%

ZB should hold support around 14630--14530

When you look at the RSI on the actual ZB chart, you can see that it only supports 8 possible moves, so we should see a push higher, i suspect to new high around 155+ and the RSI will diverge and create a 5th wave divergence against the 3rd wave

So looking ahead, i either want to see price a breakdown and confirm Bearish price action, or a new highs in TLT and ZB over the coming weeks/months.

Elliott Wave Accreditation CEWA

The Elliott Wave industry is predominately dominated by just a few select groups, although there is no real governing body as far as i know.

But there is a standard of expertise that can be attained if a trader wishes, although i will always maintain, the "real" education comes from "life experiences" watching waves grow and develop.

Getting to feel and breath waves in action, having spends countless hours seeing patterns develop, it is IMO the only sure way to gather experience.

The only other alternative is you want to try and fast track is to get yourself under the wings of an experienced Elliottician that can answer your questions and fine tune those points you may have.

But i am pleased to inform readers, that i now hold and have passed level 1 Certified Elliott Wave Analyst (CEWA)

Details: http://www.elliottwave.com/CEWA/Certified-Elliott-Wave-Analyst.aspx?code=OCOMI

So it goes a little way to getting my skills recognized in this industry

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURJPY & CADJPY

Looking at these 2 pairs, there appears to be a great looking set up for a potential reversal.

I am expecting both these pairs to reverse if they remain as a simple 3 wave correction, as the triangle [b] wave is the key to this pattern.

So i am actively watching these patterns this coming next week

Thursday, June 21, 2012

Intermarket Analysis

What do you see?

I like to think that Elliott Wave is the language of the markets, and that the markets are speaking, but just like when we learn a new language. At first its extremely difficult to understand your surroundings and what is said from the natives you are trying to communicate with.

The same applies with Elliott Wave, at first its looks and probably feels way to complicated, but with the right guidance and support, Elliott Wave is not that hard to understand.

What you really need to someone to answer your questions in a simple manner, as reading books only gets you so far, but learning hands on in live environments is the only true way to improve your skills.

The same as learning a language, unless you actually get to hear and speak , there is no way you can improve your new language skills

So if your looking to learn the language of the market, then come and join us and learn the language of the market

Its not as hard as you think

Many think Elliott Wave has no predictive values, yet usually it comes from folks who simply have no clue about Elliott Wave, the markets are probability based, and we use Elliott Wave for a high probability setup

There is no system that can predict 100% in advance, with Elliott Wave, its me and price

Thats all we need, i am not waiting for news, or a earnings report, i simply follow price

We use the waves made from price, and interpret that into the markets language, which in turn speaks to us

Elliott Wave makes sense used the right way

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of DAX

This is a great pattern we have been tracking, although we have had to adjust it a few times, as being a suspected corrective move, corrections tend to morph, but we think we have a clean idea in the DAX

The 1x1 target comes in at just over 6400, if you look right you can see a strong area on resistance at 6400-6440

I suspect a few gyrations missing, but i am looking for a strong reversal at the 6400-40 area

6C Futures (aka CADUSD) and ES

It looks like we have a nice arbitrage going on here, virtually every time i see the spread widening out, the ES gets a head of itself

So at some stage these markets will need to close the gap. That means the ES pukes or the 6C contract lifts higher (USDCAD pukes)

But the advance appears to be a corrective move so strongly favors a reversal in both markets, so the trade could be to sell the ES, as that has the most to gain.

The wild card is the FOMC later, so its not a great choice of set up to trade before the release of the statement, but still if no QE, my guess based on the idea is the lot simply comes right back off

Support on USDCAD 1.0150

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil

Knowing the potential pattern in a position goes a long way in Elliott Wave theory, having simply crashed to a near $25 decline, the correction was going to be a problem for traders without the hindsight of some Elliott Wave knowledge

Considering the strong decline, i suspect Ellioticians would have labeled that as a 3rd wave, so a 4th wave bounce was due and there were a few patterns that could have traced out, but the likely pattern is usually a triangle in the 4th wave position (you need 5 waves for an impulse wave)

As you can see it appears to be setting up, although triangles do have a nasty habit of expanding, but if the bounce remains weak and holds under $85, this market appears to be setting up for a thrust lower

Its held under the preferred area of $84, so we remain sellers under $85 short term with a target of $75

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Soybeans

Back in 1st May 2012, i wrote this for members.

One more high then strong reversal??

Lets keep a watchful eye on this market as i suspect a great trade looming, already its hit the media as bean price rocketed higher, its only now the media is making a big deal about it, errrrr where were they 1 month ago???

Indeed we got the new high and its reversed nicely, do you notice something?

A nice text book 5 wave advance from the Dec 2011 lows

What happens after a 5 wave advance is matured? why of course a reversal

Again Elliott Wave nailed the highs, just as the media were bringing it to everyone's attention

Classic Elliott Wave

If my daily wave counts are correct, Soybean Bulls are about to get a rude awakening

Market Report: Waiting for Waddle

QE or not, this is the question that most want the answer to come Wednesday 20th June.

Frankly to me it makes no difference as an Elliottician, I follow price and make my decision based on what the waves create.

Many are going into this weekend calling for the end of days as if Greece getting a new government sends the world into mad max.

Yet ordinary folks around the world will get on with their lives as the Greece elections take place. Some probably will never even know Greece has an election this weekend.

Regardless of the outcome of both those events, we will trade it as we see it. The same as we always do, we look for high quality low risk reward trades.

Inter-market Analysis

Back towards the end of May I was actively looking for a reversal in the markets as the world was preaching the end of the Euro zone and a crash was around the corner, well crash or no crash, I felt it got a little too bearish and those late to the party bears needed a harsh lesson about staying out too late.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/25849/market-report-waiting-for-waddle

Saturday, June 16, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of SENSEX

I was asked to have a look at this market.

Firstly i dont have much prior experience watching this market, so i dont know how it moves, but this is an opinion based on what i see

There is 2 ways to look at this, because of the advance from the 2008 lows into the 2010 highs being a 3 wave rally if could be a large X or B wave of a triangle

Idea 1 suggests that the market needs to come back to test the 2008 crash lows and a final target to around 7000

Idea 2 suggests lower but it could be a 3 wave decline and wave C of a larger multi-year triangle. This option i suspect is the better of the 2

However both options are based on the idea of price remaining under the red line at 18451

So it seems Indian traders have some nasty price action ahead whilst price remains under 18451

It looks like the SENSEX follows HG and AUDUSD so it pays to track HG and AUDUSD if you trade Indian markets

Intermarket Analysis

Just before the turn, i mentioned to members that with a 5 wave move seen in virtually all the DX crosses (USDCAD, GBPUSD,EURUSD and USDCHF) a strong reversal was setting up

You could see a 5 wave move from the May 1st period, there was way too much bearishness around at the time on EURUSD and GBPUSD, and that needed to be eradicated

Well fast forward we are getting those bounces as predicated from the Elliott Wave pattern

The Bearishness has worn off, the Bears are coming out of hiding on the US$ (surprise surprise)

Yes those that were tracking the 5 wave pattern on the DX knew BEFORE that there was a big reversal looming for the US$ and to get out of shorts on GBPUSD and EURUSD, and longs on USDCHF and USDCAD

As a 3 wave correction was due, the result speaks for itself

Here is what i wrote on 30th May

"With a 5 wave move suspected on EURUSD coming to an end from May 1st, we also have what appears as a 5 wave move on GBPUSD, you can see how these have mirror each other, and opposite the DX and USDCHF markets"

Using the forex markets foretold of the bounce in US equity markets such as the DOW and SPX as "risk on" was back and the trend from the May 1st highs was over and needed a correction

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Natural Gas

After putting in a potential decade and long term low, we have been tracking this decline from back at 2.55.

As this approaches the target area, we are now in what i call defcon mode, as we can be potentially setting up a strong move higher.

Here is what i wrote back then around 2.55

So we should see more downside over the coming weeks and my best guess is a very sharp and deep correction to get traders all Bearish again, but the decline should remain as a 3 wave decline to around the 786-618 retrace areas.

Fast forward, it appears to have worked well as i suspected it would, but now that we have arrived at my target areas, i am actively looking for evidence to support a strong break higher.

The great thing about this idea, is we know what we want to see, as well as we know where the idea is wrong .

If this is about to put in a secondary low, i think it will surprise many with the next expected direction .

Sunday, June 10, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold

Extract taken from this weekend’s analysis.


With the decline seen this past week it makes the move from $1526.30 a 3 wave move, so whilst price is under $1641, the option is that prices will see under $1526 and likely to test the lower support band between $1460-80.

Unless this pushes back above $1641, the bears are still in control of all the time frames except the daily picture, so the bears have a clear control point short term which is at $1641.

The rest can be downloaded here:


Saturday, June 9, 2012

"Trade of the year" GBPUSD

You want a trade setup that potentially could yield a 1700-1300 pip move

This is it.

If my current Elliott wave count is correct, (i dont have any reason to think it wont work out) then any rejection from the target areas, can setup the monster of breaks lower in this pair and see a sizable move if the "granite floor" gives out .

If you are looking to follow this market then come and join us.

It costs $30 a month for forex analysis, there you get daily updates of the 4 major FX crosses we follow USDCAD, EURUSD,GBPUSD,AUDUSD, along with many others like NZDUSD, USDCHF, EURCAD etc (when setups arise)

Take up the 4 week trial, come check our services, make your own mind up and see if we are the "real deal or not

Elliott Wave Analysis of 6C Futures

Following on from my last post


It did indeed push to a 5th wave low and a reversal as expected, and it appears to be involved in some sort of correction to correct the move from the May 1st period, as i posted before the same 5 wave move is seen on many of the US$ crosses such as GBPUSD,EURUSD and even USDCHF, so virtually all the majors that are linked with the DX are in a correction mode.

Now corrections have a nasty habit of making life tough for traders, so it comes down to experience as there are many forms this can take, but if you overlay the 6C chart with the ES you can clearly see how using the 6C pair is a useful tool for US stock markets aka the ES e-mini contract

So with a 5 wave decline in US stock markets as well as the 6C contract the odds say that we are involved in a correction now in both US stocks as well as USDCAD aka 6C

6C = USDCAD inverted

Friday, June 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold

This is a great example to anyone that wants to see a text book move in progress and the expected outcome

If you look at the move prior to the decline you can see it has 5 clear waves from $1530

You will will also note wave 3 is the longest wave, thats generally normal as wave 3s are the strongest and most aggressive in a 5 wave sequence

Wave 2 looks like a ZZ (Zig Zag) which again is normal for a wave 2

Wave 4 is a slow sideways move as the trend takes its break from the strong wave 3, in this case a triangle

And wave 5 was a short thrust out of the triangle, but more importantly do you see the RSI divergence

That tells Elliotticians the trend has likely come to an end, in fact that whole move from $1530 is literally an Elliottcians dream wave count.

So it sets up a trade, in this case, we traded it to the downside yesterday once it broke $1610

After the end of a 5 wave sequence the market will either correct or retrace the move depending on where the 5 wave move is in an Elliott Wave sequence

Now this might morph into another variation, but that is not the point of this posting, what i wanted to show is the text book waves, you can see on charts if you look around

So what are you waiting for? get counting!!

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE

Short term this should open around 5420, so a few more gyrations should finish off a 5 wave move from 5320, on the open it will have a 5 wave look, so technically it can be completed, but i suspect it is still inside a wave [iii] so ends wave iii of [iii] then a small dip around 5390 for iv of [iii] and carry on higher for wave [iii], from there i suspect we would pullback in wave [iv]

If we were to see a strong decline under 5350-60, then its likely wave [v] was extended from 5300, once any 5 wave move is completed, then we see a reversal of some sort, the RSI supports idea 1, so expecting to hold above 5350 on a pullback

Look to buy any corrective move above 5350 for wave iv of [iii], only a strong move under 5350 would i take notice

Target is above 5450

Monday, June 4, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold in AUD$

I first wrote about Gold priced in AUD $ back in Jan 2012


I remember watching the 3 wave decline in Gold in US$ and Gold in AUD$ at the same and made it known to members that it was ample evidence that a low was in place back in Dec 2011.

A lot has gone on since the. We have seen a $250 whipsaw in Gold in US$, but i thought i would dig out some other clues to see if i could find an edge to Gold in US$

When i see this chart, it dont bode well for this market, although its not a 100% correlation with Gold in US$, it dont exactly inspire me to be Bullish on this market at least not when i see the potential for a reversal as shown here

You can clearly see a 3 wave decline from Aug 2011, into its lows in Dec 2011, and what i suspect now is a 3 wave bounce

If so, the Bears are going to be setting up a strong move lower and really slam this lower over the coming months

You could genuinely make a valid case if we saw more weakness in Gold in AUD$, then Gold in US$ is going to follow

I would tend to agree, hence my caution here on being Bullish, until we can really confirm the direction in both currencies is not setting up a strong break lower

So this is a decent idea over the coming days to be watching, it probably needs a bit higher towards $1700-1720

A strong break under $1640 is weak sign for this market.

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Elliott Wave Trading Made Easy Part 2

Following on from part 1, I want to show readers some easy and simple ideas that even the basic user of Elliott Wave can use.

The examples shown here are real life examples that were shown to members before the moves and gave us the confidence to trade the expected direction; they were trade setups from the week just gone.

The 3 wave correction (ABC Correction)
I like this setup very much; it's one of my personal favorites, as I have a high degree of confidence when I see a setup like this.

In a trend setting move, the market will from time to time correct and take a breather, it's a normal event and virtually all traders have seen it, only you probably don't know the importance of the actual waves and what they represent.

As the title says it's an easy pattern and involves finding a simple 3 wave move that is correcting against the trend. Elliotticians call this an ABC correction.

Generally wave C is equal to wave A, although it can be a little short or just above, but the idea is a simple 3 wave move that is against the trend, so it can be a 3 wave decline, or a 3 wave dip. I have shown examples of 3 wave bounces as the market spent most of the time in sell mode this week.

The rest can be dowloased here:


Friday, June 1, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of CADJPY

When you see structure like this, it really does not get much easier, to an experienced Elliottician[s], he/she simply knows with a level of confidence the next direction

Many claim that Elliott is only good after the event, the reason why traders think like that is they dont understand risk, and actual Elliott setups

Its about probability, putting the odds in your favor, using your skills to interpret what you are seeing

Before and after shots

You can see 5 wave declines and 3 wave bounces, the market is virtually giving you free $$$.

Until that changes the trend remains down , Show me a system that makes it that easy with rules and guidelines

I wrote this on 29th May

This is worth watching over the coming hours as it looks like a abc count against 78.64, ideally a bit high towards the 50% retrace around 77.80

I dont want to see this higher than 78.10/20, so we can keep risk tight here, although its not broken until its above 78.64, but i tend to get very cautious if a move is strong and pushes above the 61.8% retrace