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Sunday, September 30, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/CAD

This could be a very low risk setup next week, as against the last swing low at 1.2607 is the risk control point, below that area the idea is wrong, if the market is setting up for wave [iii] of the larger [v] we should see some upside from Sundays open

Target  is towards 12850-129 (subject to the advance)


I am still expecting a potential test of 1420SPX in what i consider wave [iv] from the June 2012 lows.

I have overlaid the SPX on top of the XLF chart, and you can clearly see the 15 area on the XLF is a strong pivot area

If the pullback were to come back even to test 1400SPX (which is still fine fro what i am expecting) then we could see a test of the 15 XLF, although i will see from next week if 1420SPX is even tested let alone broken

With all the euphoria about bear markets and the next wave has started, it might be an idea to remind those bears that have convinced themselves the next bear market has arrived, that until you see strong downside in the financials and break the 15 area on the XLF, i think its way premature to announce some sort of super crash around the corner

The market has not even broke trend on either market, we can talk about large moves to the downside when 15 is taken out of the XLF and 1390 on the SPX, until then the bulls are in charge and own the markets

This is going on the case that the market sees a larger decline that i expect, if we see buyers step up at 1420SPX the XLF wont reach the 15 are before buyers step in and buy the financial stocks

15 on the XLF is a big area for the bulls to hold

Elliott Wave Analysis of Silver

Market Report: Elliott Wave Analysis of Silver
The advance from the pivot lows on 25th Jul have seen strong moves in the US$, Gold and Silver, we can clearly see that they are moving opposite to each other.

Using AGQ as a proxy for the price of Silver I suspect it’s in a smaller 4th wave and looking for higher prices over the coming weeks and the decline on the US$ appears to setting up for more downside.
There is likely to be some back and forth filling as this market like Gold has come into stiff resistance.
Gold resistance is at $1800, Silver resistance is at $35, and with a wave count that suggests a bit of consolation, we could see a bit of sideways price action for a few days before further upside expected

Market Report: Ready For the Next Wave Higher?

US markets

The corrections that I was looking for finally started to correct last week, although it started a little later than I initially figured, it finally caught up to the other markets.

I have been using the forex markets for a while now for clues to the cycles and wave patterns with the US markets, we went into last Sunday looking for a reversal on the ES e-mini and head lower to what I think is a 4th wave pull back from the June 2012 lows.

As the market has started to pull back, it has amazed me how quickly traders had turned bearish, just after 2 days I was seeing messages of SPX at 600 on social media websites, it's not even broke support under 1400SPX and traders are looking for the SPX at 600, I just have to shake my head at this sort of thinking, its dangerous to have a bias looking out that far, there is a lot of points between here and 600SPX, but after 20 handles of decline we had figures of 600 being floated around the internet.

It's a good job we follow what we see and not what others post or try to make vocal in the media. There were many reasons this past week for why the market started its decline, but we simply were not interested, as we had already been looking for a pull back towards 1420 on the ES e-mini contract.

Read the rest here:  http://www.safehaven.com/article/27114/market-report-ready-for-the-next-wave-higher

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/SGD

I found this an interesting idea while scanning some charts this weekend, i think it could be a short term trade that suggests more weakness and it pushes lower in a 5th wave

Its been pushing lower even before we saw the DX weakness starting from the 25th July highs, and IMO this supports the idea of more DX weakness

Readers maybe aware i have spoke in length about watching the other US$ crosses for clues, it was how i was able to identity that the DX was making a big turn at the 25th July highs

2 US$ crosses that i like to follow for reference are USD/NOK and USD/SGD,

Staying under the last swing high (blue line) suggests more downside as i suspect this will be a 5 wave impulse wave from the 1.2554 high (red line)

So going into next week, traders can look to sell any further strength in this pair with protective stops at the blue line at 1.2333

Friday, September 28, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of DAX

I still suspect this advance is actually still part of an impulse wave and will ultimately end up being a 5 wave impulse wave.

Like the US markets it started off with a corrective look to the move, but eventually it showed strong impulse moves to the upside with price action to support an impulse wave

So i suspect we are correctly in wave [iv] from the June lows, although being in a correction there is going to be a few ways to count the correction

I am showing a simple ABC decline to around 7150, but it might have to be adjusted as like all corrections they have a habit of morphing. Instead f a simple ABC decline it could be a WXY move, as if we see a push above 7368 that will negate the idea of wave [a] being a 5 wave decline, but it still could see a bit lower towards 7150 before mounting a move higher.

I don't see any bearish price action to suggest the market has topped or about to see a strong break lower, the trend is up till its not and the bulls own the markets for the time being.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Sensex

With the upside move above key resistance it appears that this market has morphed into a potential complex pattern, although confirmation of a breakdown will not come until back under 17256, with the fibbo targets now hit for a potential high, its time to be watching this market for a potential breakdown

As the advance still looks corrective, but the bulls are still currently in charge, a reversal around the 19000 area is the target zone, but this has hit the edge of the target area already, so caution is required for the bulls

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURCAD

The wave [iv] can be counted complete, although like all corrections they can morph into another variation, but its holding well above key support and its not really showing impulsive price action, so the odds suggest currently more upside in what i think will be wave [v] of a 5 wave impulse wave that started back in August.

A strong break down under 1.2250 will be a warning that the idea is looking wrong, but even with a marginal new low (if the low is not in for wave [iv]) it could still setup nicely for a break higher.

Friday, September 21, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Google (GOOG)

Potentially this could be setting up for a reversal as i can count a 5 wave advance, and its hit a measured target, although seeing a potential 5 wave completion does not automatically mean a reversal, we need to see some price action 1st

A swift break of $720 can be used an the initial clue, but ideally the NDX will reversal, and an idea i am tracking from the June 2012 lows potentially could see a reversal on the NDX upon the next price high

I will be watching both the NDX and GOOG for clues

Thursday, September 20, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDJPY

The last few months have seen a series of whipsaw moves but the sideways look suggests a triangle that should break to the upside when its finished with wave [e]

As long as it stays above the red line then the potential still suggests a thrust higher, the 80.00 needs defending from the bulls on any downside move from here, a break below 78.65 will negate the idea

Sunday, September 16, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of TBT (Proshares Ultrashort)

A update to the previous ideas, of a substantial low in TBT and a generational top in ZB.

I think there is a great low risk opportunity here to buy TBT on a pull back, it appears that the FED is going to sacrifice the bond market for the stock markets to rally.

Bernanke thinks he can control both, but money moves out of one market into another, whilst there can be periods of manipulation the FED will not be able to control rates forever as the remaining holders of US treasuries flee and sell those bonds and buy into other assets then interests rates will push higher.

I am sure that's really going to help the FEDs book as they are carrying a ton of US treasuries (sarc), not to mention all those loans and credit cards that will see interest payments increase, so the US consumer will get shafted one way or the other.

So look for weakness now as we can use $15.80 as risk control, if the bond market is about to break down then TBT will move higher, so traders can profit from traders running out of the bond market.

By creating more QE all the FED will do is force traders into "real assets" and see the stock markets and commodities move higher, and the bond market will suffer as traders sell US paper to buy other assets.

Monday, September 10, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Soybeans

The potential for Soybeans to break lower is very real now, it has a completed looking 5 wave advance, although there is a divergence in the grains markets as both Wheat and Corn have failed to push higher as i wanted to see

So it will be interesting to see if Soybeans leads a reversal.

If a bounce fails to push above the red line, then traders can look to sell any bounce around $17.50, especially if a choppy advance, as the decline from the red line looks like a small 5 wave decline

That's a strong RSI divergence and supports the idea of a high in place

Sunday, September 9, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of CAC 40

With the new high in the CAC it actually opens the door for a potential ugly impulse wave, whilst some European markets don't support the case for an impulse wave from the June lows the CAC actually can be counted as such

The key will be on any decline, as currently there can be counted a simple ABC advance as well as the end to wave [iii]

If support is found around 3350 and a choppy corrective looking decline, it would suggest a 4th wave pullback as part of an impulse wave

However if we saw a strong break under the red line it would clearly give the bears an advantage

Friday, September 7, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of DX aka US$

The reversal from the 25th Jul highs is what traders need to be focused on atm, currently its a 7 wave decline, we are also seeing 7 wave advance in the EURUSD

Whats so special about a 7 wave move, well in Elliott Wave terms that's what is called a correction

3,7 or 11 waves constituents a correction, so its important for both the bears and bulls to monitor the number of waves and structure from here

If the US$ is setting up for a strong reversal, it will have big implications on the risk markets, likewise if the US$ collapses and it breaks strong support between 80.50-80.20 then the US$ bulls are going to be in trouble

The direction from here is key for both sides and if the US$ pukes hard, my best guess is that anything and everything gets bought and a "full on" risk buying sprees and the carry trade kicks back in and risk markets get bid up


If the US$ is trying to base (EURUSD making a high) and it remains above support at 80.50 -80.20, and reverses, IMO it will have a major affect on the risk markets as $$$ runs back into the safety of the US$

So its important to stay vigilant from both angles

A measured move at 80.72 is sitting underneath, with the look of a potential ending diagonal (the same ideas on EURUSD) things could get very interesting shortly

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/JPY

A follow up from the last posting on EURJPY


This appears to have confirmed my earlier thoughts and moving in on the original target around 100.00, its still look a few gyrations short, but if this interpretation is correct (i don't have any reason not to think its not as i have been tracking it for many weeks now)

We should be close to ending the move that started from the 25th Jul lows, much the same as the EURUSD

A break under the red line can confirm a failed move, but we have the new high and its met the minimum target, so time to be on high alert, my guess is that this also aligns with a reversal in EURUSD as both markets are in sync with each other

Sunday, September 2, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of COST (COSTCO)

Potentially there is a 5 wave advance for this stock from the 2009 lows, so the bulls need to be very cautious, as Elliott Wave theory suggests a sharp reversal is setting up

The 1st sign of a reversal will be back under $94

Elliott Wave Analysis of INTC (INTEL)

INTC is looking bearish atm, with what looks like a clear 3 wave advance from the March 2009 lows, the potential is for a serious decline

Its broke down under 25 (although a small bounce can be seen) the next objective is $19

A move back above $27 negates this idea (red line)

If a 3rd of a 3rd is setting u we should be seeing a strong break lower soon and easily see $21

Saturday, September 1, 2012

Divergences Forex Markets

The divergences still appear to be mounting, (they can of course reverse).

In this market there is a series of forex pairs that i personally follow to keep looking for ideas on the direction of the trend in risk markets etc.

Now every market should be viewed on its on merits, but there are times that you can use a combination of similar markets to look for important clues to a trend reversal

Back at the March 2012 highs i started to notice the forex risk pairs NZDUSD and AUDUSD bleed lower, then slowing the AUDJPY followed, and the last to reverse was the 6C aka CADUSD (USDCAD in reverse)

I could not understand why US stocks had not puked and followed AUDUSD, AUDJPY, NZDUSD and the European markets lower (all those markets were in sell mode)

But the clue finally came from the USDCAD aka 6C in reversal, and that was the link as to why the US markets held up into the May 2012 highs

The same appears to be happening again and that 6C has gone it alone and is supporting US stocks, so when the USDCAD/6C markets reverse, its my belief that you will see a reversal in the US stock markets

So i suggests those that are looking for a reversal in US stocks, is to watch the patterns and price evidence on USDCAD/6C

Don't take my word for it, see for yourself (or you can sign up and follow my work)