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Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Soybeans

After nailing the top in beans and going against the majority of the crowd, (you all remember the droughts don't you, oh yeah that was going to see Soybeans go to $50 a bushel yeahhhhhhhhhh that went well didn't it lol)

Why was a mega bearish on Soybeans when virtually the crowd was long and bullish? why that would be because of a 5 wave advance, nothing complicated at all

Traders are bullish at the top of a move and bearish at the bottom, its never changes traders follow each other, its traders that think outside the box that are usually a head of the herd

I thought i would share with you how this trade went in real time as it involved timely updates helped a few members make some serious $$$ on this trade, as well as letting them know when to get out and lock in the gains.

5th Sept 2012, market is mega bullish as usual at the highs, but i am mega bearish based on Elliott Wave patterns.

17th Sept 2012

20th Sept 2012

27th Sept 2012

15th Oct 2012 (ready to bounce)

24th Oct 2012

29th Oct 2012

What is next for Soybeans?

Well after a 5 wave decline we have seen a 3 wave bounce just fall short of the $16 target, but if the next move lower has started, then its game over for Soybeans as i am targeting far far lower prices

Elliott Wave makes sense if its used in the right hands, you think its worth the $15 a month charge to see other commodities?

Or do you want to keep 2nd guessing?

I do this for many more markets from US and European stocks to other commodities such as Oil, Gold and Silver, as well as many Forex pairs

Elliott Wave is a great tool if its used by an experienced Elliottcian, its not perfect, but with a road map you can have an idea where you are going and can control risk.

This is what i do day in day out 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year, find opportunities so members can make great trades

Are you ready to make some great trades?

Monday, October 29, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil and CAD futures

I have been tracking ideas in 6C (CAD futures) and Oil since the September 14th highs, and i suspect that the decline will end up being a 3 wave decline in both markets

As per this weeks article, (see last 2 posts ) we have what appears to be a 3 wave advance on the US$ (DX), it just so happens that that too started from Sept 14th , so tracking a potential high in the DX, should see a low in both 6C and Oil

If you look closely there appears to be a potential 5 wave decline ending on Oil, so that is a great clue for an end to both 6C and USDCAD spot markets

 Remember 6C is the CAD futures so opposite to the USDCAD spot market

A small low towards the measured 1x1 fibbo target at $83.80, i suspect align with a low in 6C and high in USDCAD, so traders can also watch the DX to see if a strong rejection under 80.50

Market Report: Cross Correlations Between Markets

If readers take a look at the chart below you can see how highly correlated the markets are and looking for that little edge can sometimes literally be the missing piece of the jigsaw puzzle that can make the difference to being on the right side of the trend.
ES versus USD/CAD and DX
As an Elliottician I look at charts every single day of the week trying to evaluate and find little edges that can make the difference.

Presently I think the markets are at inflection point that should decide the next strong trade.
If we use the ES e-mini contract as a proxy for the US stock markets, we can also see how it has moved opposite virtually tick-tick to the DX (US$) and the USDCAD forex pair.

But I am more interested in what the moves are actually doing from the September 14th lows (ES would be a high).I currently see a 3 wave move on the DX and USDCAD, and likely wise I see a 3 wave decline on the ES.

A 3 wave move is considered a corrective move in an ongoing trend, hence why at this juncture I think if the US$ reverses, we should see the other 2 markets ES move to the upside and USDCAD move to the downside.

Because of where the DX and USDCAD are situated, it's important for stock traders to monitor those 2 markets as they will likely decide the trend of the US markets. As the DX and USDCAD pushes higher up, US stocks markets push lower.

But as mentioned, if the bounces in USDCAD and DX remain as a 3 wave move, that should be a corrective move in the current downtrends, hence why a potential turning point I suspect is at hand and if traders are not watching carefully they might get caught napping.


If we take a close look at the advance we can clearly see that it's a 3 wave advance (so far), its hit a technical measured target where the 2nd advance is equal to the 1st advance.
A 3 wave bounce is important to Elliotticians as not only does it suggest a corrective ABC bounce, the next potential trade is a complete reversal of the move, if the USDCAD pair reverses, then the likely- hood is ES/SPX will reverse to the upside, as seen in the above chart as they are virtually trading tick-tick opposite each other.

Larger Image

You can also see how it's contained via a corrective channel, that's another key characteristic of a corrective wave.
So currently we have a 3 wave bounce that has hit a measured fibbo target, it's inside a corrective channel, so all that is missing is a strong reversal under the red line to confirm the move is complete.

You can rest the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27485/market-report-cross-correlations-between-markets


Sunday, October 28, 2012

Market Report: A Week of Mixed Emotions

We went in Monday looking for a low on US stocks as I was seeing setups to suggest getting long risk markets and particularly we wanted to get long US stocks. Having hit our 1420-1416ES target on ES, I personally bought the 1418ES area, but anywhere around the 4 handle target was the expected reversal zone, we were then pleasantly rewarded with a strong bounce into the close. 1416ES was a gap down Sunday Globex low and it had been a target for a while as the cash markets like to test Globex lows in the pit session hours.

Looking for 1416-1420 ES Test

Thursday, October 25, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDCAD

Another pair that i think its setting up for a strong reversal, similar idea to the last post on AUDNZD,and once a 5 wave advance is in place a reversal is likely setting up. At least a 3 wave decline should take it back to 1.0150, so a 150-200 pips decline due soon

If you are interested in following the ideas i post on this blog check out the main site at www.wavepatterntraders.com

Although its not a common pair i follow, but when ideas present themselves for a trade, members are informed, as a clear trade is what we are looking for, if it looks poor we simply leave the market alone then look to another market

The main main FX pairs i follow are the main major pairs such as GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, and other such as NZDUSD, EURJPY and AUDJPY are followed on a frequent basis

So watch this pair if you are interested as i suspect a bit more price action could see a reversal soon

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDNZD

Its not a pair i follow much, and i was asked by a member could i take a look

I was pleasantly surprised at what i saw, i think it has the basis for a potential 5 wave impulse wave from 12368

Currently in wave [iv] so a move towards 12590-70 would end wave [iv] then rally to new highs, towards 127, and then see a trend change for at least a correction to this current move

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of CMG (Chipotle)

Blow offs always end in tears as the holders of this stock found out, in a few short months what took just over 3 years to get to the peak, in a few months 50% has been lost

Simply vanished from the giant ponzi scheme that this stock was, everyone loves this stock when its going up, but when the rug is pulled, we see this stock for what it was, a great big ponzi scheme

So it cant happen to AAPL right??

Just before the highs i posted this chart of APPL

Side by side we can see what happens when these types of moves breakdown

Earnings are out next week, it will be an interesting week for AAPL and the NDX if AAPL don't deliver

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES

Currently i suspect this is close to the wave [iii] peak, so a 4th wave pullback should be seen, we can see the same setup on EURUSD, and EURJPY, so a pullback today should be close, i thought we might see some weakness overnight and into the European session, but its probably going to come from the US session

I am looking for around 1445-47ES as a target for wave [iv], then rally to new highs in wave [v]

Only a seriously strong puke in the other markets such as EURUSD and EURPY would i be concerned if this dumped hard under 1440ES but if we see a choppy decline, that will likely support the idea of a 4th wave pullback

I wrote this on Oct 16th

"This is set up to rally big time if it can get over 1435ES and force the bears to cover shorts, we can move risk control to 1430ES above there sets up a 3rd wave to the upside"

Indeed it followed the script nicely much to the dismay from the bears, if the bears had bothered to do some research they would have seen many markets all pointing to the same thing.

It was not that hard of a call, it was a small risk set up

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASX

I took a hard look at this over the weekend, although its not the best of counts, the advance i initially thought would prove corrective from the June lows has IMO turned into a 5 wave advance

That idea comes from the potential 5 wave move on the US markets from the same June lows, those that trade the ASX know to well it follows the US markets

And whilst there are elements that are not exactly 'to the book", in the real world we have to make decisions based on what we have in front of us

Strict Elliotticans will say the move is wrong, but then i live in the real world where we dont have perfect 5 wave moves all the time, the overall look counts fine for a 5 wave impulse wave.

Traders trade, book Elliotticians make pretty pictures, thats the big difference

In FX we use what we got as Elliott Wave is about the skills of the user, the trend is up, but it counts near to a potential 5 wave move from the June lows, and using the price and pattern on the US markets suggest that the impulse idea is the correct idea, even though its not perfect

So we should be in the last stages now of wave C for a possible flat pattern from the Oct 2011 lows

Targets are sitting just above, between 4520-70, so a bit higher in the US markets could align nicely with new yearly highs on the ASX and the SPX

Monday, October 15, 2012

Market Report: All Eyes on the Dollar

I left readers last week with the idea of the stock markets to move lower, prior to that the expectation was for a move lower in the precious metals and a move higher in the DX to correct the powerful decline we have seen since the 25th July highs in the US$.

The market followed that script nicely as we can see on the updated charts from my last publication. We remained short the markets for the majority of last week, I was looking for 7200 to be hit on the DAX and 2750 on the NDX.

I also had 2 targets in mind on the ES, either 1435ES or 1420ES; having failed to get back above 1435ES on Friday it was clear the market was making its intentions known to see the lower target. It's now I suspect we have a setup on the US markets to push higher, as many of the jigsaw pieces look like they all could come together.

Read the rest here:  http://www.safehaven.com/article/27304/market-report-all-eyes-on-the-dollar

Sunday, October 14, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCHF

Currently based on the gyrations in the DX and EURUSD markets, i suspect we are still involved inside a 4th wave.

There is 2 ways you can count the move, but its a moot point as to which idea is correct as both ideas suggest more downside, the advance appears to be a 3 wave move and ended with a small truncation as the EURUSD made a new low at the same point

So if a bounce is seen early next week and fails to capture 0.9417 then traders should look to sell this pair, i also suspect that the US$ will be heading lower (the DX and USDCHF are essentially trading together)

As well as seeing EURUSD and GBPUSD head higher as shown in the charts, they are all interlinked with each other

DX and  USDCHF are opposite GBPUSD and EURUSD

Saturday, October 13, 2012

Free Week 14th October - 19th October 2012

Starting from Sunday 14th October midday (noon) EST, the main forums will be open to the public for viewing until Friday 19th October after the markets close

There is no need to join or pay any fees as it will be available for all guests to view, simply click on the forums to see the updates

Markets that will be available to view:

US Stock markets - DOW,SPX, NDX, NQ, ES

European Markets - FTSE,DAX


Edit - I have opened up the EURJPY, NZDUSD and AUDJPY forums

Commodities - GOLD, SILVER, OIL

Enjoy, it should be a good week ahead based on where the markets are placed




Monday, October 8, 2012

Market Report: More Chop Ahead

Last week I left readers with the idea that more upside is expected in US stocks, nothing really has changed those thoughts, although short term we could see some early weakness, I still feel that the dip will provide an opportunity to get long US stocks.

It seems many premature bears last week were once again looking for that elusive crash that for some reason never seems to go away, and got run over again. I guess when some "papa" bears keep telling their readers and subscribers "it's just around the corner" for the last 3 years it kind of gets thin.

The past week spent most of the week chopping higher, but whilst we saw a new yearly high on the DOW on Friday, the other broad markets failed to register that high hence I suspect we see some weakness early next week and the market pulls back.


From the June 2012 lows, it's my belief that the market is still involved inside a 4th wave, although I am allowing for a deeper pullback as the recent bounce suggests a 3 wave bounce which should see more weakness towards 2750 as a potential target.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27217/market-report-more-chop-ahead

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of DAX

Following on from my last post a week or so back, i still suspect this is involved inside a 4th wave from the June lows, i have the same working count of the US markets, so they appear to be in sync with one another

From the price action i have seen so far it supports those ideas hence i remain bullish on US and European stocks

Unless i see price evidence to negate that view then IMO traders should remain bullish and look higher

Short term we have a small 5 wave decline for what i think is wave [a], then it appears that we have a 3 wave advance for wave [b] (suspected), so to finish this off we really want to see a new move to 7200 for wave [c]

So aggressive traders can look for a move lower early next week, with small risk, if the DAX can stay below 7400 early next week, we can use that for risk control

If a decline is setting up on the DAX, then we should see a decline in the US stock markets which further agrees with some ideas i am working with on US stocks

We can also see that the DAX and EURUSD are tracking each other, which is basically the same trade as ES and EURUSD

So being bullish on US and European stocks confirms that we need to remain bullish on EURUSD, as its the same trade, only when we see a break down of the ideas would we need to be cautious, but for now.

"if it ain't broke why fix it"

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURSD

Following on from my last post on this pair, it appears to be working well, although there is a potential triangle that traders need to be careful above should this pair see a strong break under 12960

But above 12802 the market is bullish, and above 12960 the market is very bullish, but we wont really know until we see some price action on Sunday/Monday

The one issue is that some of the European and US stock markets really could do with a move lower and that may support a bit of "risk off" selling and a move higher in the US$ hence the triangle idea could come into play, although recently we have seen the EURUSD hold its ground even when we have seen a push lower in stocks, but in general the ES and EURUSD are moving in sync

For now lets use 12960 for guidance

Monday, October 1, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

I was originally working 2 ideas, and initially thought the decline would be a small 4th wave pull back, but due to the time aspect, i suspect this is a larger wave [iv] and target the 38.2% fibbo retrace of wave [iii] around 12775

The June highs come in at around 12745, there is the room to push lower if needed, although the decline from the high on wave ( what i suspect is wave [iii]) appears to be corrective looking and a 38.2% retracement of wave [iii] is a normal correction for wave [iv]

So any small bounce that fails under 129 should lead to a new low, a strong bid above 12959 suggests the low is in and a move to 13250 is suggested

If we are working a triple ZZ in EURUSD it seems likely that we will see a reversal in both AUDUSD and 6C (aka USDCAD in reverse), so its important to be watching all 3 markets as i suspect if the EURUSD reverses higher it will see a risk on bid higher, and i suspect US stocks will get a bid as well

So even e-mini traders should be watching the EURUSD pair from here