Elliott Wave Training
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Saturday, July 28, 2012
It appears that these 2 markets are in sync, although we have been tracking both these patterns and a larger 5 wave decline prior to these moves
But a closer look reveals what i suspect is a 5 wave advance, so a 3 wave move should offer a setup to buy into a corrective decline for a move higher
Only a strong decline below key support areas would the bulls need to be cautious, but it looks a decent setup for both pairs if any decline is a corrective looking move for higher prices over the coming days
EURJPY is on the left
EURUSD is on the right
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We only trade the high liquid major forex crosses as they offer the cleaner wave patterns for clarity and risk, as well as the spreads being the smallest.
Friday, July 27, 2012
After completing a 5 wave move into the lows at 12039 the market was ready and ripe for a reversal
How or why is not the concern, but Elliott Wave is a probability based forecast system and if the Elliottician is a skilled user, he/she can often predict with some clarity that a reversal is at hand
Even if you never wanted to get long, the actual wave count was suggesting that the short side was extremely dangerous as the Elliott Wave principle says
After every 5 wave move a 3 wave correction is seen.
So being short at the lows of a multi-year low and with the sentiment so one sided, the odds favoured staying out of the move to sell, as the best part of the move was over
Staying out was just as good as being long, as not loosing $$ and being on the wrong side of the move is as key to trading as making a wining trade
Its not always as clean as this, but using the power of the Elliott Wave principle at least told me and members that we should not be aggressive on the short side here as the odds favored an aggressive rally
I wrote this on 25th July
Well there is the new low and potentially you have a 5 wave decline ending from 12741, and the news frankly is at its worst.
But as pointed out, if everyone knows that Greece is finished and most of the issues are out, does that bring traders to look at it from another angle and that it can only get better not worse, as the worst is behind us
The bears still need to be VERY cautious here, as we are seeing completed looking patterns in the DX, EURUSD and USDCHF, so whilst its not a buy atm, its not a place to get sloppy and think we could see another 500 pips
The odds suggest with the way the structure is setting up a potential bounce
wave [v] = [i] 12050
Elliott Wave used in the right hands makes sense
If price holds key support the trend remains up if the spike holds firm and traders embrace the Draghi rally (labels removed only for members)
Thursday, July 26, 2012
Following on from my last update, the SENSEX indeed has dropped lower as i suspected it would, but now we have reached a a critical place if the decline is a 3 wave ABC move, we should be setting up for a strong reversal and potentially still inside the larger triangle idea and in wave C
If this is actually involved in a bearish 12 12, then its about to start a huge waterfall downside more in a potential 3rd of a 3rd
Or push lower for wave D of the triangle and target around 16000
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
The gist of the email was asking why i was not that active on Twitter as some others are and why i don't post more free stuff on this blog or twitter as a means of advertising
I thought long and hard over the past 2-3 days but i think i finally have the answer
I basically use Twitter as a means of advertising, as do i use this blog, most businesses use Twitter, face book and such for advertising, there is nothing wrong with it, as we live in a Internet world
But in order to advertise one must show his/her work, but i think there is a fine balance between literally posting all your charts and ideas and just enough for potential members to be interested in your work
I made a vested interest to respect my current members and simply not post massive amounts of charts and ideas
I am simply going respect the membership of the site and not going to post charts day after day for viewers to use for free
After all they are paying members and if i put myself in their shoes, i would be cheesed off if i saw loads of charts posted everyday for free when i pay for that privilege
Frankly i don't think its right, so there is going to be a fine balance between what i think is interesting to post or keeping for membership eyes only
There will be those that say well if you don't advertise then potential members will not be able to view your work
Well for those that are not aware, you can view my work at http://www.safehaven.com/ (search for Nouf)
As well as search for Wavepatterntraders at http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/
I try to post 1-2 times a week on this blog and occasionally post trading ideas, but frankly i am not going to go through the route that i have seen others adapt, and post loas of ideas for free.
Its none of my business how others run their site or membership, but i respect my members enough not to post loads of my ideas for free (the work they pay for the privilege to see)
If anyone is interested in seeing my work and ideas then they can join the site and take the 4 week trial.
Its been 4 weeks virtually since the start of the website, if anyone is truly interested then they have an option inside the 4 weeks to terminate for a no questions refund
So you can get to view my work for a period of 4 weeks for free, if you don't like it, simply ask for a refund inside the 1st 4 weeks
Then you can see if we are the real deal or not, or if my works suits your trading profile
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Any reader has my permission to use or post my work. Providing recognition is give to either myself or the website www.wavepatterntraders.com
I have a unique style of counting and can spot my work, so if i find out any person is using my work but claiming it to be their own work, i will do everything in my power to expose that you have stole my work.
Sunday, July 22, 2012
That looks like a clear 7 wave move and the reversal in the financials suggests this has likely topped, or i should say it has a high odds of a top in place and the move from the June lows is over, which further supports the case SPX has topped.
The XLF is virtually back under the 12th Jul 2012 lows, you will not see the markets push higher when the financials are puking, as well as seeing tech dump as well.
Which is confirmed by the wave count as the move since the June lows in the XLF is weaker looking than the SPX, so look for vehicles to buy like an ETF that makes $$$ when the financials push lower, as i am confident this is going to see the June lows tested.
I sometimes wonder, did anyone actually read
Elliott Wave Principle Key to Market Behavior by A.J. Frost and Robert R. Prechter
Elliott Wave is not that difficult, yet when i see obvious 3 waves being counted as a 5 wave advance, from alleged Elliott Wave experts then clearly it will cause the public to disrespect other fellow Elliotticians work as we all get labelled the same.
And if further just gives the ammo to the non believers that Elliott Wave is just some goof with some labels and numbers and does not really have any purpose.
I cant argue for other Elliotticians but only argue for myself, you will never see me count waves that are blatantly abusing the rules and guidelines.
If its so obvious, then its obvious how you must count it regardless of the larger picture, the waves themselves will fit in somewhere, but there are rules and guidelines.
I have a qualification, i have studied the rules and guidelines and read countless books and articles from the person that bought Elliott wave to the forefront.
Whilst i may not agree with Roberts wave counts, i will say that i am truly grateful for him allowing me to share in Ralph Elliott's work.
There is a marked difference between 3 waves and 5 waves, i understand that sometimes there is a bit of confusion with patterns like triple ZZ (triple ZZ ie WXYZ) but for this post i am going to refer to the move from the June 2012 lows into the June 2012 highs and show you why its not a 5 wave move.
I have seen on more than 3 occassions from different sources it being counted as a 5 wave advance
The pattern is ongoing but that part of over, its a clear 3 wave move.
There can be no question about it.
An ABC is a 3 wave move, generally consider to have 2 legs of the same length with the B wave around the 50% of the length of the move.
A 5 wave impulse, has a clear 5 wave structure that should be clear to anyone, even the most basic of traders, and generally consider that wave 3 is the longest wave of the 5 waves
So if you cant tell the difference between a 5 wave move and a 3 wave move by simply looking, then either you cant count, or you are forcing wave labels to your bias its as simple as that.
Lets review the move
Its a clear 3 wave move, if you cant spot that, you have no business counting or even attempting to use Elliott Wave, professional or not, if you have a hard time spotting basic patterns then you are going to run into trouble.
Notice how the move stays sideways, and we dont see a deep correction, that's a characteristic of a B wave, if you have studied Elliott Wave for a while you get to understand the nuances and characteristics of each wave and what to expect.
One of the main guidelines of a ABC is that wave C generally will met the length of A, as you can see on this occasion it never even reached the C = A target.
It has an obvious 3 wave look, the correction is around the 50% of the whole move, and the 2 upside legs are approx the same length.
That is a classic 3 wave move, NO ifs or buts, its not a 5 wave move.
If its a 5 wave move, then its being counted wrong, and its being counted wrong for a reason.
That reason is due to a bias, failure to accept what you see against what you want to see (forced counting)
If you cant distinguish between the basic 5 wave pattern and 3 wave pattern, you are going to run into issues.
If you are a professional reading this and you count waves like that, i question your integrity, as its clear that you are NOT following the rules that are laid out in Frost and Prechters book.
Or did you even read the book?
PS - I am aware of Ian Copseys work, but this post is not referencing his work, as he uses his own adapted version of Elliott's work
The past 4 weeks we have seen some very confused markets that any self respecting technician should be confused about.
Back when the risk markets were falling into the June lows, the call to look for a major turn and a reversal was a very easy call and worked out well, and we had a target of 1360SPX. That was based off the US$ aka DX making a 5 wave advance from the May 1st lows into the June 4th highs. It was a high odds trade that if the US$ reversed we would see risk markets such as US stocks and risk currencies move higher.
Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/26268/market-report-summer-trading-gone-crazy
Friday, July 20, 2012
You can see how Oil has gone berserk for the last few days, but yesterday was contract roll over from the Jul to Aug
So i suspect the shorts have been blown out of the water, the last time Oil tried to go it alone, it fell back to reality (middle of May)
Using the patterns on the precious metal could be a vital clue on oil, as the advance, although strong has been in 3 waves, and we have not seen the metals follow
A strong break under $89 will be a strong clue of a reversal, target is under $75
Hint: Silver is below and if you click the Gold link on the right hand side it will show you the Gold ideas. I am sure you can work it out from that.
Thursday, July 19, 2012
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
This pair could be an exciting opportunity for swing traders, as we have a controlled risk point at 1.3043.
If this interpretation is correct, then a big more to the downside is setting up and a likely a multi-hundred move towards 1.20
Monday, July 16, 2012
The move from the June 2012 lows seems like an eternity with all the swings we are seeing, although I am sure it's causing pain to both bull and bears alike, I don't think anyone is immune to it.
To those traders that were trading back in 2008 some of you may remember the March-May 2008 rally, seeing the moves now reminded me back then, and I can recall a nightmare set of trading conditions we were trading back then.
You can see the similarities between the fractals and it's something I am watching, although I follow price 1st and fractals 2nd, but if price holds our key support then we must give some credit to this idea and the potential to move back above the July 2012 highs.
So if we have just finished point 6 then we could have a bit more upside to go, although this is simply an idea, and always open to adjustments, as is any idea.
Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/26192/market-report-complex-just-became-more-complex
Sunday, July 15, 2012
With all the attention in the grains lately i thought i would have a look at Corn, although i am aware of the situation in the grain markets
However i still believe the markets simply still come down to a seller and a buyer, I am not interested in the whys or hows, just price
I dont understand nothing about the grains, i dont follow the news, (only the crop reports, just so i know when to expect big moves)
Price gives me the waves, and waves i know how to count, with that i am presenting an idea i am watching, well members and i are watching, as Soybeans has a similar move from the June lows
I suspect the grains will go together, it potentially looks near completed, so i am still on DEFCON mode for some strong evidence of a reversal
Stay tuned to Soybeans and Corn, i think they could be setting up for a strong reversal lower
Friday, July 13, 2012
Thursday, July 12, 2012
Bottom Line: We are seeing slow gradual weakness in some markets linked with the risk markets such as AUDUSD and NZDUSD, however there is one caution point I want to raise, and that what the EURUSD and US$ potentially “might” be doing.
I have a concern about the move that started from Feb 2012, and that it might be ending a 5 wave decline on EURUSD so the bears in risk need to be careful here.
As if the US$ is setup to potentially reverse, then logically that suggest other markets will push higher such as AUDUSD, NZDUSD & US, European stocks, so it’s a concern that I see a potential setup for a strong break lower in risk markets, yet when I look at the EURUSD and DX charts, they suggest a potential end to the move that start from Feb 2012, so it’s important to stay in touch with the EURUSD pair here and watch for any aggressive move back above 124 for the 1st sign of a move higher.
If we see other risk associated markets join EURUSD higher, then it’s a warning for the shorts that are selling other risk markets.
Now that is a big if, but I want to highlight it, in case the US$ and EURUSD are potentially signally a message, but for now whilst the EURUSD is under 124, I am comfortable looking lower with a view to seeing 120 hit.
That’s a clear 3 wave move from the 1367ES highs, and well as finding support from the trend line, so we come to the point where we confirm if the decline is a small [x] wave or not. We can use 1345-47ES now for guidance, as a strong push above that area and then above 56ES suggests a test of 1370ES.
We have seen a lot of nasty waves on this current upside move and its making trading tough, so if you are felling worn out then the market is doing its job well.
So let’s stick with the plan and adjust, I understand that many probably just want to put on a trade and see if we can run a strong break lower, but the markets don’t always make it easier and it’s how we deal with the tape that will make us better traders.
I have been here countless times, but it still doesn’t get any easier, chop is chop and no one is immune to it.
Read the rest here: http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/ElliottNewsletter/Marke%20reportMidweekUpdate.pdf
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
I have been recommending them to clients that have approached me about 1-2-1 training.
Rather than spend loads and loads of $$$ on courses, you simply have the course right here on You Tube for free.
Then clients have only needed 1 or 2 sessions to fine tune the basics where they were still confused, its a very cost effective way.
I am not in the business of taking someones hard earned $$$ if i can help them save $$$ 1st, and viewing something for free.
So if you are serious about learning Elliott Wave theory you have no excuses, its right there free on You Tube.
And if you need any further help with the final touches of the theory then you can get in touch and arrange a session or 2 to iron out those issues you might have. Clients have simply made a list and we have gone over the list with examples and used real life charts, but the basics and more are included in these videos.
So don't spend $$$ if you don't have to, its all there for free, and i have counted waves for many years and got taught from the best Elliotticians and those courses are some of the best i have seen.
I am part 1 CEWA qualified.
I hope that helps.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPgirJ0I4rM - Elliott Wave Course Module 01
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VoO82alMT6g&feature=relmfu - Elliott Wave Course Module 02-A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ioPgEvmEJdk&feature=relmfu - Elliott Wave Course Module 02-B
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8eedki9xu8&feature=relmfu - Elliott Wave Course Module 02-C
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmqNTOJtBr4&feature=relmfu - Elliott Wave Course Module 03-A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hryyxAjHj7Q&feature=relmfu - Elliott Wave Course Module 03-B
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VqJM_2tMdmU&feature=relmfu - Elliott Wave Course Module 03-C
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iQttnRevB9k&feature=relmfu - Elliott Wave Course Module 04-A
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F8bNYPy5jkc&feature=relmfu - Elliott Wave Course Module 04-B
You can also click on these links to find the best 2 books out there for studying Elliott Wave
http://www.scribd.com/doc/7381626/The-Elliott-Waves-Principles-Frost-AJ-PrechterRobert-R (Robert Prechter)
http://www.scribd.com/doc/7122262/Balan-Robert-Elliott-Wave-Principle-Forex (Robert Balan)
Monday, July 9, 2012
My answer is simple, it has to be worth my while, so if i am going to invest time and effort if into providing analysis it must be beneficial to me
I have thought about it, and if there is enough interest i am more that willing to provide a service to help Indian traders with the Sensex, Nifty 50 etc or the Indian rupee VS US$ etc
So if you are interested in a possible Indian market service, please can you let me know
Send an email to: Enquiries@wavepatterntraders.com
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Looking around it seems we finally have some clues to the bulls cracking and throwing in the towel, yet I have been telling members that Gold or Silver is not a buy as the trend has been down since the Feb 2012 highs. Staying under $1641 on Gold has been key for us and try as they like the Gold bulls have failed at every attempt, although the usual crackpot excuses are coming out, like JPM made the markets lower and the markets are rigged etc.
The best one I have seen was the mysterious "London trader from the pits."
Give me a break with the conspiracy theories, if you are going to trade the markets, at least stand up and admit you were wrong, looking to blame others is a poor excuse for being wrong. The great thing about price and patterns is I don't need to go looking for excuses, as I know where I am wrong on an idea before I even take the trade.
I don't need to know what JPM is going or anyone else; all I am interested in is what price is doing.
I am not concerned that the world is going into hyper-inflation in 1 year or 10 yrs, I trade here and now, I can assure you I am not going to wait for the end of the world as some are.
Many newsletter writers and commentators need to look at themselves in the mirror, as If that is all that they have to sell you, ask yourselves is it really worth the $$$ you are paying?
Well I have a confession to tell you, the markets are rigged, they have been for years, ever since I have traded the markets we have seen insiders trading, the fact remains if you can't accept that stay well away from the markets, as you will always have an unfair advantage if you are trying to justify trading the precious metal markets using "Da Funnymentals".
With Elliott Wave we have fixed stops for the patterns and we respect those stops, no excuses.
Decide if you are interested in making money as we are, or are you interested in following the usual crack pot crowd preparing for the end of the world.
I am very bullish on Gold from a daily perspective pattern, but there is a right time to buy as there is a right time to sell. There is also a time to stand aside, as I have advised members that never wanted to short the precious metals is hold on to their $$ and wait for the buying opportunity.
Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/26102/market-report-a-glimpse-of-gold-capitulation
This stocks is like a freight train, although i suspect its nearing the end of a 3rd wave, so a move lower is expected soon, although that could be a few days away
Even as the SPX dumped hard, this stock is a safety play, as a blue chip defensive stock
Another stock that is slowly progressing nicely towards its overall target
Its sill got a bit of way to go, but i don't have a reason yet to abandon this wave count or target at $65
Its been a while since i updated some of the stocks i follow, but this one really came up good, although i don't update them much on the blogsite, i do update them on the main site.
I tend to use the big stocks as a proxy for the main markets, and this still looks like it needs a 5th wave and eventually see its $85 target
The decline from the April highs unfolded in a 5 wave decline, and what we have seen these past 4-5 weeks is a series of junk moves, which suggests, that the advance we have seen is a series of waves that should be retraced
There is a potential that the advance is completed, but it now needs to see some aggressive downside price action to help confirm the move, as i have also included an alternative (shown in blue)
Like all corrections you never really can predict with any certainly until most of the moves are in place, especially with one just as complicated as this.
Back when we were puking heavily into the June lows, i felt the markets had got too bearish on the GBPUSD and EURUSD pairs and a correction was needed to shake out that bearish sentiment
I wrote this on May 31st
Thats the target for wave [v] hit, but as the EURUSD is a little shy of gyrations, this might push lower towards 154-15450, but there is now a completed looking 5 wave move from 163, so a correction is potentially setting up, one that could see 50% of this decline, so 15850-160 is very possible
At minimum i would expect to see 157-15720 around the previous 4th wave
It actually overshot to 153s, as the EURUSD and DX markets were not ready to reverse
Well fast forward and we most certainly have shook out that bearish sentiment, so much that i have seen calls for 165 in the media
Funny what a near 500 pip move can do.
Yet i am very confident that once this correction is completed we will see this whole move from the June lows retraced
I was confident on the EURUSD and that move has been fully retraced, so i see no reason that this pair wont follow in the same foot steps
The structure suggests a corrective series of waves to the prior impulsive drop
A strong break under the red line will help the bears and attack the 153 support area over the coming weeks
If we see a strong bid above 156, then 158s are back in the frame as the alternative idea is being suggested
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Following on from my last post on the DAX
See here: http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2012/06/elliott-wave-analysis-of-dax.html
We did indeed get a large reversal as expected from our target zone, and a few members caught most of the decline, i personally traded the move along side members.
But in light of the advance seen on Friday its clear that we have to alter the ideas a little, i try to look at this from a positive angle, as the advance is still a corrective move. and the move simply give me a chance to sell again and make the same $$$ twice, which is a good thing.
Only its simply morphed into a more complex correction, i see nothing Bullish about the structure, so still Bearish the DAX and aggressively looking to sell setup when they set up
Short term it appears as we likely are going to test 6550-6600 in what is likely wave [y] of a complex correction
So a small dip then push higher is needed to finish the pattern, thereafter i am expecting a move back under 5900
My daily wave analysis is reserved for members along with targets
If you are looking for analysis on the DAX and FTSE on a daily basis, and want solid ideas, then sign up here: http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/topic/647-subscription-packages/page__pid__12411#entry12411
For $15 a month, its great value, but dont take my word for it, sign and up and see if we are the real deal or not
With the rally seen last week, it has morphed the correction into a more complex WXY setup, (suspected)
The move is likely to be in wave [y] and requires to see some sort of 3 wave move, overall i dont see much in the way of a Bullish setup, although this potentially could see towards 102-103, but that will be subject to pattern and structure
You can see this idea on many of the JPY crosses, so its something to watch out for if you follow the others such as CADJPY and GBPJPY etc