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Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GG, ABX, NEM, BVN, KGC, GFI, GOLD, HUI, GDX, XAU, HMY, SSRI

Being the season of good will, as a good will gesture, i have decided to make this months Gold stocks report free to readers.

Simply click on the link to download the PDF

Have a wonderful new year everyone, see you in 2014


Sunday, December 29, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of XLF Vs SPX

The advance from the 2009 lows on the XLF so far appears to be a 3 wave move. Its nearly met the measured target where wave [C] = [A], so in Elliott Wave terms we can label it as a potential ABC corrective advance.

Although a bullish move, its actually a bearish bounce against the decline from 2007-2009. its almost at the 50% retrace levels as well.

One of the reasons i suspect the SPX move from the 2009 lows is a B wave is the XLF showing a 3 wave bounce. A check of the history between the 2 markets reveals that in true bull markets the XLF and SPX tend to move in tandem.

If the XLF is actually coming to a conclusion and ending its cycle from the 2009 lows, then i would suspect the trend in the SPX will end as well

Interesting times ahead for both markets, the bulls need to really confirm a strong uptrend in both markets.

Failure to move much higher here could be a warning sign for the bulls.

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

The spike we saw last week could have possibly ended wave E of a large triangle (bearish idea) or wave [D] (bullish idea)

Usually when you see a move like we saw, that runs buy stops (above 13831 and 13850) and reverses back under the area where it rallied from, it generally marks a peak

So the evidence, whilst not conclusive, it does potentially suggest a peak and a move lower can be seen

Idea 1 suggests the large triangle that many Elliotticians are following, so its either finished wave E or close to finishing wave E

So in 2014 its going to be a nasty time for the EURUSD

Idea 2 suggest it can still see a pullback towards 128-130 but it will setup for a large move higher towards 155, that will suggest the US$ is going to pretty much crash

This idea actually aligns much better with my ideas Gold seeing a large move higher in 2014 back to $1500-1600

Due to the sideways range we have witnessed for the past 4 years (same as GBPUSD) there is no one pattern that stands out, its really all about the next large move lower, based on that structure will help confirm which idea is finally in control

We can clearly see where one goes, so will the other, i am still expecting some large moves in both pairs even if they stay in this range for another year, scaling down to the shorter term time frames we can easily find trade set ups

So if EURUD sees 120 GBPUSD should see sub 140

If EURUSD sees 155, GBPUSD should go to 170+

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

In my previous post,i showed a setup that i suggested to members to buy the dip with a target of 165


That target has now been reached, although there is the option of more upside whilst it remains above 16450

Its a deep pullback, larger than i would want to see, but if it can find some buyers above 16450 then i think this has the chance to see 166+

A strong break below 16540 would suggest a peak is in place and target 163 then 16220

You can count a 5 wave move from 16321, although the 5th wave is unusably large, it look more like its part of a 3rd wave as opposed to being a 5th wave.

16450 is a key area for both bull and bears

The bulls need to find some buyers quickly

Resistance at 16480

Long term ideas could suggest it might have ended (or close to ending) a large triangle over the past 4-5 years

With such a large range and the fact this pair has gone nowhere for nearly 5 years, traders need to focus on the 60 or 120 min charts for trade ideas, there have been plenty of opportunities if you know where to look

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Market Report: JPY Carry Trade Reversal?

In my last article I left readers with the potential idea of a peak in the US markets, although we saw a minor pullback, it was not the move or the initial decline I am expecting.

Although this minor new high in the SPX has caused me to adjust my wave counts a little, the thesis is still on track and I am expecting a large decline in the markets, in the early part of 2014.

Bearish Idea

S&P500 Weekly Bearish Idea Chart
Larger Image

I suspect this last spike we have seen over the past week is wave 5 of [5], so whilst it can push a bit higher I do think it's close to a reversal.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/32234/market-report-jpy-carry-trade-reversal

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

A setup that we are watching is to buy the pullback on this pair.

Stops need to be put at the last swing low at 16220, ideally this finds buyers between 16280-16320

You can see that buyers have stepped in already at the 61.8% retrace of the prior rally, but if a bit lower down, then i would expect buyers to support the market between 16280-163

Target 165+

So a nice risk/reward trade if you get the opportunity to buy nearer 163

Strong weekly support at 16280

Friday, December 20, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

I last wrote about this pair back in Oct see here: http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/10/elliott-wave-analysis-of-usdjpy.html

In that article i mentioned the fact that i believed the USDJPY was setting up for an exciting trade, true to its word it do not disappoint.

Having had a 105 for a few months now, the last few gyrations of this market appear to have possibly been put in place.

We have met those targets i put out in the Oct post.

Now that does not necessary mean a top is locked in place, what is does say is that i am no longer bullish this pair.

I am extremely cautious and looking for signs of a major top in USDJPY and have warned members that the time for being bullish is potentially over, we need to tread VERY CAREFULLY.

I am targeting a major move lower, one that can see towards the 95.00 area.

With the setup on NIK-225, I think 2014 could be once again "all about the JPY"

Bulls consider this a warning.



Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of VOD (FTSE)

I recently posted a potential timing chart of VOD on StockTwits see here: http://stocktwits.com/message/18150839

Its met a time and price fibbo cluster and i think holders of this stock should take some precautions and watch this stock very closely.

The FTSE is showing significant weakness compared to many other world markets.

From the highs made on the 12th Oct 2013 i can count a 5 wave decline, so if a bounce fails to completely retrace the decline, then it can setup for more downside in this stock and add further weakness to the FTSE, as the banks are also suffering in the FTSE.

There is a nice gap just above which will be the perfect area for this to tag and end the correction before setting up and moving lower.

The idea is wrong above the last swing high, (blue line) so that's where the stop needs to be.

Friday, December 13, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (via GLD)

The market continues to move lower towards our targets, whilst its causing frustration to many traders, for us its been a great ride. Members have continued to stay on the right side of the trend, either selling rallies or staying to sidelines until a trade setup presents itself.

Suffice to say i am quite proud of the way i have navigated the gyrations for members, as long as members are happy that makes me a happy person.

I am still looking for the 110 area but a new low under the June lows would technically complete the move. with some missing gyrations i still don't feel a long term buying opportunity has presented itself yet, although when the time comes members will be the 1st to know when i recommend we get long Gold.

Yes you read the right "get long and buy Gold"

What i find ironic is that i am now receiving mail telling me  i must be crazy to want to buy a "train wreck" (that was the best description i read)

Gold top

HUI top

I need to remind readers back in 2011 i was looking for a major top on HUI and Gold, i was getting the same sort of mail back then telling me i was nuts and crazy to be looking for a top,"don't stand in front of the freight train"  funny how sentiment has changed.

Now you cant find a Gold bull in sight (well apart from us). The lower this moves the more bullish i become.

When things are on sale in a supermarket, you see queues 2 miles long, yet when things are on sale in the markets, people run away. I never can work that out.

Decide if you want to be buying low when its nice and cheap. (subject to patterns and setups)


Follow the bag holders and buy high and sell low, its your choice.

Members of WPT will likely be buying when most are probably selling. But then we like to buy when no one want to hold them, and sell when everyone wants them.

As long as we come out on top its all good.


A look at GLD suggests the same idea as i am working on GC.

So a bit lower down towards 116 should end wave [v] of the larger wave 3 then setup for a bounce in wave 4 to around 122 before moving lower in wave 5 to under 114 and target the 110 area.

For now, continue to look lower under 120, as we are in a series of 4th waves, things can get a bit messy, i will adjust as needed ONLY if the current idea gets invalidated, but remain bearish under 120.

If this is the sort of analysis you are after then take a test drive.

For $9.99, decide if its right for you.

Sign up and put yourselves on the right side of the market, i cant promise you the earth, but i can promise you i will do my best to make sure members are on the right side of the trend.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Market Report: Clues From The Dow Industrials

In my last article I was looking for a reaction from the 1750SPX area. The continuation of the move higher has again forced me to reconsider other ideas.

In my last article, I was initially looking at a possible ending diagonal on the SPX (bearish wedge to non Elliotticians) but as I re-evaluated price structure in the other main US markets it became much clearer that the pattern in the SPX was not an ending diagonal as I initially thought, but some sort of ugly unorthodox flat pattern.

Although technically the ending diagonal pattern is still valid, but in light of the evidence in other US markets I decided to adjust the pattern to reflect the ideas on the Dow Industrials as well as the Dow Composite.

Bearish Idea

The move off the March 2009 lows currently counts best as a 3 wave move; I can count a 3 wave move, which in my opinion is very close to a reversal.
SPX Chart
Larger Image

Since my last article the SPX has moved just over 50 points, however the angle of the advance looks wrong for the previous ending diagonal idea. As I mentioned earlier, the patterns on the Dow industrials and Dow composite show a much clearer idea, which I think are important clues.

The SPX is slowly coming into a fibbo price time target I have been following. But without a reversal clue, this grind can push higher than the bears can stay solvent. Although we have been following the short term charts higher, it's now I think once again that a possible reversal can be seen, it's this area that an important reaction could be seen.

You can read the rest here:  http://www.safehaven.com/article/31974/market-report-clues-from-the-dow-industrials

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

With the market erasing the prior decline its forced me to look at other ideas.

I still suspect this whole series of waves we have seen from the Nov lows at 133 is a corrective bounce, although its morphed into an ugly correction, much uglier than i wanted.

I traded with my OWN $$$$ the setup i previously posted, in front of members, so its not a case of "hiding" my losses when things go bad.

Members of the site can see i also lose $$$, i am not ashamed of my losses, i respected the setup and moved on to the next idea.

I don't have nothing to prove to anyone, for the record i took a draw down of 142 pips, so to my Twitter fans that abused me.

If you are reading this and you are getting a kick out of me losing $$$, hey i am happy for you.

But rest assured i make far more $$$ than i lose.

These things happen, its happened before and will no doubt happen again, for my "fans" i am generous and giving you a setup i will be looking to trade.

I am watching for a strong break under 13550, but a closer look appears to be a small ED.

Furthermore, although i wont post them, we are watching set ups on EURCAD, EURNZD (posted above) and EURAUD.

Other ideas and setups are reserved for members only

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURNZD

I suspect this is close to ending a large 3 wave ABC, its met a measured target objective where wave C = A

If you look closely you can see a wedge shape, Elliotticians call that an ending diagonal

The 1st sign of a reversal is under 16550, once an ending diagonal, we should see a swift reversal, so i would wait for a break under the blue line at 1.6550 1st.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of NZDUSD

From 0.8404 we have a pretty text book 5 wave decline

So a standard set up is to sell the end of a 3 wave bounce into a target area, stick a stop at the origin of the 5 wave move.

So the stop is at 0.8404, we know its wrong above that area as the retracement can not retrace more than 100% of the prior move, so in this case it cant go above 0.8404.

A target band is between the 50-618 fibbo retracements, we also have a 1x1 measured move where the 2nd up leg equals the 1st up leg of the suspected 3 wave move

Any strong powerful move above 0.8300 is a warning that this is something more bullies, we want to see a reversal and the market stall our around 0.8280-8300

So so can watch and see the reaction from the target zone to get a better "feel" if this current move off the last swing low is a 3 wave bounce

Monday, November 25, 2013

Market Report: More Downside Likely in Gold

 Original article http://www.safehaven.com/article/31906/market-report-more-downside-likely-in-gold

Since my last report some 5 month ago see here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/30253/market-report-gold-to-go-to-700-or-3000 the market appears to have made its intentions of more downside.

This chart was in that article, and you can clearly see that our line in the sand was $1450.
I also wrote this:

"The bear case suggests the market is about to start to accelerate lower in what Elliotticians call a "3rd of 3rd", so we are unlikely to see a strong break above $1400-1425 and any bounce will be corrective and more downside is expected."

The actual downside was further than I initially thought, but the resultant bounce failed to get above our line in the sand at $1450 and subsequently rallied in a corrective structure, thus has likely confirmed the bearish case of more downside and a test of the $1180 area towards $1150, although I have adjusted the idea a little, I am still expecting a test $1150 before we see a stronger bounce back to the $1400 again.

Hopefully by the time we see under $1180 the media will be freaking out and probably have the likes of Peter Schiff on for a media appearance, maybe even mocking him. (Good sign that a low is near)
If you look back to the time when Gold put in the lows at $1180 the media did an interview with Peter Schiff and were mocking him for his Gold call.

When the media is in a state of panic and freaking out, when Gold bulls are being mocked that's usually the time a market turn is close.

Currently Gold is still on a sell on all time frames under $1293, there are a few ideas I am watching.

One idea is a triangle for wave 4 of [3]. I would need to see a reversal above $1293 to start to look at other options but suffice to say, failing to see a move above $1293 suggests more downside and target under $1180.

Whilst it's been some time since I last wrote about Gold. Members at WPT have been trading the swings as usual with some members making great profits, with the help of our Elliott Wave maps, it has clearly aided members, week after week members have known where Gold was likely going regardless of the FOMC meetings in between. For $15 a month some members have expressed it's the bargain of a lifetime.

Gold Daily Chart 2
Larger Image

Short term charts will need to continue with the downside from here, a quick acceleration would really scare many Gold bulls, and if I could chose I would like to see a scary spike lower and really "stick" it to the bulls, thereby pushing lower towards our targets under $1180.

XAU Chart
Larger Image

AUY (Yamana Gold)

This stock appears to be close to setting up for a buying opportunity, with all the negativity in the media and even on financial websites, it seems the love is almost gone for Gold stocks, that's the sort of negativity I thrive on and like to see when I am looking for a low in a market.

As they say, "you should be buying when you crying, selling when you are yelling"

Yamana Gold Cart
Larger Image

I suspect this is now in a final 5th wave and close to ending the trend that started from the 2012 peak. Having retraced over 50%, it's now that I think it offers a great potential buying opportunity.

I am closely watching this stock, when I think its close I will be informing members and readers of the Gold stocks news letter to the potential buying opportunity and set up. It appears that wave 5 could be a small ending diagonal (ED). If so we should see a small wedge, that's a great clue that the trend is exhausted and ready to set up for a reversal to the upside.

Gold Stocks Newsletter

I have been closely watching many Gold stocks for members; slowly I have amassed a large number that I decided to produce a report each monthly for members, which on its own can be purchased for $20 a month see here: http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/topic/1818-gold-stocks-report-gg-abx-nem-bvn-kgc-gfi-gold-hui/page__pid__53287#entry53287

It is however free and available for downloading to members of both the US stocks section and commodities section.

I see some great opportunities for both Gold and Gold stocks, whilst the trade this year has been sell Gold and Gold stocks, in fact anything Gold related, buy US stocks, I believe based on where the US stock markets reside and where many Gold stocks are with respect to their Elliott Wave patterns, things are about to get really shaken up and a complete reversal of the trade we have been seeing the past 12 months is going to be seen.

What I mean is we could see a complete 180 of that trade. Gold and Gold stocks move higher, US stocks and equities move lower.

Ask yourselves this question?

What is going to offer you value, GOOG at $1000 and near a potential top? Or any of the battered Gold stocks that are 50-70% off their peaks.

The situation we have in the US markets reminds me of the peak around the 2000 top.
SPX versus Gold and HUI Chart

If you look at the chart we can clearly see Gold stocks started their moves higher as US equities moved lower.

I strongly suspect we are setting up for something similar again. The situation we have today is completely different to what we had in 2008. Gold stocks have already crashed so they are limited to the downside, if anything, a move lower in US equities I suspect could ignite a move back into Gold and Gold stocks as a possible fear trade. It remains to be seen if that is the case.

I think the bulls are close to getting close to ramming their horns right through the buttocks of the bears. Based on the readings of their patterns, I think many of the Gold stocks are very close to setting up for some substantial and tradable moves.

Remember "It's always the darkest before dawn"

Dawn is fast approaching on Gold and Gold stocks.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD (short term)

I am looking for a choppy/corrective bounce into the target reversal zone around 13490-13520

Stops need to be put at 13577, although i would be a little concerned if we saw a strong break above 13550

Simply put, sell the blue box area, stick a stop at 13577, we know where its wrong

Long term and 4hr wave counts are reserved for members, but this is a "bread and butter" setup

Please i am posting this idea BEFORE any potential reversal.

Yes, before you ask i will be trading the setup as well.

Update: I took the trade and got stopped out for a loss of 144 pips

Sunday, November 17, 2013

Gold Stocks Report Updated 17th Nove 2013 GG, ABX, NEM, BVN, KGC, GFI, GOLD, HUI, XAU, GDX, HMY, SSRI, SLW, AAU

The next updated report is available for purchasing (members get it for free, it will be posted in HUI forum).

If you never purchased the 1st report, then in order to purchase the current updated report as well as the previous reports (I will send all the previous reports, as it helps with the ideas).

Click the PayPal link to the right hand side.

Once I receive your payment I will send your reports to the email address that is on your purchase statement (please check your spam or trash folder).

If you have already purchased a report from the previous months, then you can purchase the updated report for a reduced price of $10, that’s a saving of $10.

You don’t have to purchase the report, you can wait and purchase any additional reports when you feel it necessary, but any further reports will still be the same reduced price.

Simply select the option of "Updated Report" for $10.

However I will require you to forward me evidence of a prior purchase, if you can’t supply me an invoice, then I will not accept your order; you will require to purchase any order at the full price.

The reason why I ask for evidence or a prior purchase, is to stop anyone trying to purchase a report for the 1st time at a reduced price.

Stock included are: Gold Corp (GG), Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM),

Compania De Minas Buenaventu (BVN), Kinross Corp (KGC), Gold Fields (GFI), Randgold (GOLD) and analysis of the $HUI.

I have also added additional analysis of SSRI $XAU, GDX and Harmony Gold (HMY) 

The report is 17 pages long.



Here are 2 stocks from the report, they were requests from 2 readers.

AAU (Almaden Minerals)

At the request of a reader, I have included another Gold stock, as it has a clear pattern that I think readers could really benefit.

I am waiting for a new low, that could potentially complete a long term pattern, So watch for support into the target zone to end wave [5] of C around $1.05 – 0.70.

SLW (Silver Wheaton Corp)

A reader asked me to take a look at SLW, although it’s a Silver Stock, it has a potential pattern readers could follow.

I think this stock would look better with a new low, then it potentially could setup for a meaningful low if it’s ending wave [C] or a larger ABC decline, target around $12.50-13.00

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of SPI (XJO)

I would still like to see that new yearly high above 5450 to complete this idea, i am not a fan of truncations and the ES (aka SPX cash market ) still have a set up that can see new all time highs, as does the INDU.

So above 5372, short term i will give the benefit to the bulls to rock it on higher and stick it to the bears.

Only a strong reversal would suggest a peak in place, but atm i don't yet see the evidence on this market or the US markets. for a peak in place.

I have a cycle chart that suggests a peak into the end of Nov early Dec on SPX.

That fits nicely with this idea of a push higher.

Alt idea is a small triangle (sideways zzzzzzzzz price action for a few more days).

If we do see a new yearly high, i am watching for a RSI divergence with price, that will be a good sign its a small 5th wave.

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDUSD

I suspect this is still inside a 4th wave labelled as wave [iv] of A, staying under 0.9607 suggests a move towards 0.9400, which would then complete a 5 wave decline from 0.9757 and set up for bounce higher in what i suspect will be wave B of [B].

A move above 0.9607 negates the short term idea, that this is still inside wave [iv].

Ideally it stays inside this smaller triangle idea, but under 0.9550 offers a setup to sell, stops 0.9607

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Before & After GOLD & GLD

Another easy idea, some members traded the actual Gold spot price, as we KNEW BEFORE where the idea was wrong. That was at $1365.92

Other members could have traded GLD, it made no difference the idea was the same.

The result speaks for itself.

Risk $9-10, Reward $40-50. Target was $1300-1310

Please note the price when the trade was presented to members.

Price now $1315, some members took their $$$ on Friday as it hit our target area, now looking for the next trade setup.

Job done, take the $$$ sit back and wait on the next idea.

Say no more, another simple easy trade for members, those that understand price and patterns are killing this market.

Still think we are not worth $15 a month??  (Price of the commodities package).

Oh well your loss, members will just keep making the $$$ while others keep losing it.

Before & After AUDJPY

Another simple, yet easy trade for members.

I even posted this trade setup on Stock Twits/Twitter.

See here: http://stocktwits.com/message/16951324

So it was presented BEFORE the move and i even explained the move , so it was a freebie for my followers.

Risk was to 93.65, if you look carefully there is a 5 wave decline into the lows near 92.70, so active traders could of locked in at least upwards of 50 pips, this is a short term idea, but i tend to encourage members to try and run ideas for larger profits and swing trade.

Staying 93.60 suggests more downside.

Still think we are not worth $30 a month?? (Price of the forex package)

Friday, November 1, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GLD (update)

I have been uninitiated with emails asking for an update.

I don't generally do requests, but i will make an exception, considering i did a post yesterday, as i put my time and effort in to the main site, i have many other markets i have to watch over and update.

Anyhow here goes:

Its hit the target, and impressive move to stay the least, but if you have been watching the US$ or even EURUSD as a proxy, you can see why

The US$ aka DX is killing US$ linked markets such as Gold, Silver EURUSD &GBPUSD etc

USDCHF is getting a bid as well.

I suspect its close even if the idea in blue for a bounce, forex pairs like EURUSD and GBPUSD are at strong support, so a bounce to correct  this decline will or i should say "should be seen"

If the bullish case is happening, we are nearing a reversal and rally hard above $129.35

However the "look" appears to be more bearish than i initially thought, so if we ONLY see a weak crappy bounce, and it fails to get above 128-128.20, then i strongly suspect the idea in blue, then more downside.

So GLD at $128 aligns with Gold spot to around $1335

US$ is back to resistance, Gold is coming into natural support at $1300, i do expect a reaction there.

Before & After AUDUSD

Another great decline that some members rode down.

Appears to have a bit more downside left 1st before a decent bounce.

Still think we are not worth $30 a month??

Before & After EURJPY

Another move that members caught.

We knew where we were wrong, the result speaks for itself.

Still think we are not worth $30 a month??

Before & After GBPUSD

I am not a fan of posting before and after shots i don't have nothing to prove. As long as members are making $$$$, that's all i am interested in, this week members are happy, so that's always a good thing.

It generally comes across as "boasting" and marketing, which if you know me i detest.

However it seems no matter what i do, no matter how many times we "nail it" at WPT, there are always going to be people that simply don't believe us , that we are that good.

So i have decided, i am going to start a "before and after section to simply prove that we do "nail it" week in week out, and its not just a "one off".

So yes by all means this is marketing, but take it as evidence of our abilities at wavepatterntraders.com

We are the "real deal" we can count waves.

Evidence provided forthwith and will do every week.

You decide if we are any good.

Members rode  this down this week.

Still think we are not worth $30 a month??

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GLD

This is a follow up to a chart i posted on Stock Twits

See here: http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_16838429.png?1382971322

It appears that its pulling back, i am targeting towards the previous 4th wave at 126.57, the 50% retracement area is also a good spot at 126.14.

I think its probably going to be a messy decline, but as long as it shows the characteristics of a corrective decline, then we should find support around 126-126.50.

Short term, traders can look lower under 131, a strong move above 131 is a bullish sign.