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Thursday, February 28, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (short term)

Copied from short term ES forum


I suspect wave [iii] is in place and a pullback for wave [iv] should be close if not already started, so a move towards 1510-1512ES is the target, with lower targets at 1508ES

So watch for support around 1510-1512, that should setup for a move higher towards 1530ES

A strong breakdown under 1502ES is a warning for the bulls as its far deeper than i would expect for a 4th wave

Monday, February 25, 2013

Market Report: It Has Started

Well not quite, but it's very possible now a high is in place. In last week's I was looking for a push higher to test the prior highs. We have been tracking an ending diagonal for the past few weeks, only the trouble with that pattern is they have a tendency to morph and waste time.

Last week

SPX Chart
Larger Image

It's the time wasting as it forms the wedge shape that frustrates traders, until a point it breaks hard and almost all traders are not aware what has happened.
When markets are like that I strongly encourage members to look at other markets, with over 25 markets
that we follow a decent idea is never far away.

SPX Chart
Larger Image

Well we finally got what appears to be the break we were expecting, and we even followed it lower to cover our shorts on the end of a 5 wave move.

If the bounce remains under the prior swing high at 1531SPX, we are looking to put shorts back on for what I expect will be a strong breakdown towards 1450SPX.

With our risk known, it offers a higher reward for a small risk, exactly the sort of trades that I encourage members to take, I think if the market fails to see a strong break above 1520SPX, it should setup for a decent move lower, having put in a 5 wave decline it's a strong start that a peak is in place.
As always we use stops and know our risk before we put the trade on.


As mentioned above, some members trade the ES, so we have almost 24hr coverage of the markets. If members want an update as to the ideas, they can come into the chat room and ask questions or see the latest ideas in the forums. With the extensive range we trade there is always a market for everyone.
Some members, including myself were short the ES well before the move as we knew the risk to the idea was just under 1540SPX, so using the ideas on the SPX for risk control on the ES.
I was personally short from 1517-20ES as suggested in our swing trades service, so members had the ability to follow my personal trades.

Read the rest here:  http://www.safehaven.com/article/28924/market-report-it-has-started

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Elliott Wave USDJPY Vs NIK-225

An addition to my last post reveals that the triangle idea might need revising as i noticed that it might also be happening on the NIK-225

So the wave [a] of the triangle needs to be placed at the Feb 15th lows, not as i initially suspected, that would align with a potential triangle as per the NIK-225

As most traders know the USDJPY and NIK-225 are trading virtually tick-tick, so its worth watching the NIK-225 for clues

Although the triangle is suspected to break to the upside, there is a "trap" that many traders miss, as shown on the NIK-225 chart, and that whilst many look to the upside, its actually a B wave triangle and you get a thrust lower and fool the majority of traders, although it quickly reverses once its took out the wave A stops

Although i don't suspect it atm, its always an option, as 4th waves are notorious for messing with traders and choppy them up to pieces, and this has been no exception

It is looking like some sort of 4th wave in progress on both markets, so that suggests once they have finished more upside expected in both markets, at least one more high needed to finish a 5 wave impulse move.

The very fact the declines are looking corrective looking,  supports the 4th wave idea currently in progress, so be prepared for more chop on both markets if its inside a triangle

Stops need to be placed at the wave [a] lows (Feb 15th) as triangles have a nasty habit of morphing and chopping traders up

The idea of a 4th wave also agrees with my work on EURJPY, AUDJPY , those 2 are the other main JPY crosses i follow, they too appear to be in a 4th wave patten, but not a triangle as i suspect on USDJPY and NIK-225

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

It appears the USDJPY is tracing out a triangle.

How to trade it? that's what everyone that is reading this wants to know don't they??

That's the easy part, you simply place a stops at 92.20, as 1 pip below 92.21 the triangle is wrong

Although there is another idea that suggests a push towards 91.70, so traders could hedge its what we call "Elliott hedging"

But the objective is for traders to get long now and start looking higher, the trend is strong and suggests a triangle, which is a 4th wave of "some degree" so its likely going to test the 95.00-97.00 (subject the the triangle thrust) over the coming weeks, although the thrust to the upside will be a 5th wave to end a 5 wave sequence, so will pullback back to the 92.00 area again, but i am expecting a 95.00 test

Knowing your risk and objective is very important before you place a trade, if you don't have a plan, then you are better off going to Vegas

I would like to see a bit lower to around 92.50 before it setups a move higher, but a strong thrust higher is expected

So the lower this pushes to 92.21 then less risk you are exposed to

Monday, February 18, 2013

Market Report: Calling All Bears

It's been a few weeks since my last report so I thought I would update the ideas we have been working and what I think it's potentially setting up going forward.

US markets

Although we have seen some great price action in other markets, the US markets have remained in a small range, and we still are waiting for a strong break, or a resolution to our current ideas I suggested to members that we go looking for other ideas.

Since my last report back in Jan 27th the SPX has moved a whopping 17 points as of Fridays close, so not exactly something to write home about, although judging from the euphoria out in trader land you would think it's up 150 points.

On the SPX I am still working the large ending diagonal and whilst its chopped higher it's not yet negated the idea, although if the idea is going to work then it's at these levels I would expect to see a reversal, I originally penciled in a target of 1480-1500SPX back in Nov 2012 and found myself fighting the premature bears that were looking for crashes, thinking the high was finally in, much to their surprise, the markets melted higher and forced the bears to cover, although it came of no surprise to us as we understood what was going on and looking for the US markets to break above their respective September 2012 highs.

SPX Chart
Larger Image

You can read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/28842/market-report-calling-all-bears

Saturday, February 16, 2013

Contributors to Wavepatterntraders.com

Are you interested in becoming a contributor and seeing our ideas for FREE?

As www.wavepatterntraders.com grows and expands, i have decided that i would like to offer other trading techniques to members, and as much valuable information as possible.

So in order to try and improve the services that we offer, i am looking for contributors to the site

If you have a special skill in a certain area of the markets that you are an expert at, for a few ideas a week, you can gain FULL access to wavepatterntraders.com

Example, you maybe a Gann expert, or Harmonics expert, so all i ask is that you post your ideas and share with members of the site, and you are active, you don't have to be glued to the site, but a few ideas a week is great, especially if you see a decent setup, as combining many ideas will help all members

You can post your work outside of the site if you wish, i don't have any issues with that, as the work is copyrighted to you.

But as a contributor, all i ask is that you post quality ideas, that will help other members including myself

The idea is that if we can all pull our work together, we can find quality ideas that ALL members can benefit

You might be an Elliott Wave expert, Gann expert, Cycles expert or a Harmonics expert, maybe an options expert (this would be useful as when we have ideas, if members can find ways to buy options, that IMO would help greatly), there are areas of the markets i have no experience, but if you prove that you are an expert, i am willing to consider anyone

You do not need to "whore" yourselves out to promote www.wavepatterntraders.com

Just type in "Elliott wave" on Twitter you will see how many have sold themselves out to a certain logo

I am not looking for that sort of thing, i am after contributors that can add value to the site.

There are a few Rules:

1) You are not affiliated with ANY other services, if i find out, i will ask you to leave. if you are a subscriber, that's OK, but if you are an owner or more than just a subscriber, then i am not interested, i have had issues with some companies that are on Twitter, and i am not going there again.

If you have a blog that is fine, i dont have any issue with you keeping your blog and posting your work inside wavepatterntraders.com

2) You need to be an expert, someone that has some experience in the skill set you say you have, so if you have just started, sorry that don't qualify

3) I want to see some of your work beforehand, so if you cant prove you have the skills, then please don't apply, so maybe you post your work on public forums, or you have your own blog etc, please provide me a link

4) You will answer any questions that a member asks, IE you wont keep your work as some sort of voodoo secret. As an Elliottician, i can answer any questions about my work, and i have a responsibility to the members of the site to answer, but i all ask if that you reply in a civilized manor

So here is your chance to gain access for FREE, if you are an expert at something, then please let me know

Other Elliotticians can apply, as the more minds the better, but other technical analysts are very welcome

Send an email to enquires@wavepatterntraders.com


Jason (Nouf)

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

Taken from this weekends post:


So what are the ideas so far?

1: The idea shown in blue is bullish and suggest we should see a low shortly around 13320-50 and see an aggressive rally higher back above 13480-500

Support is at 13280 lower down

2: The idea shown in black is very aggressive and suggests a weak bounce in a small wave [ii] then setups for a "3rd of 3rd" lower, it should fail under the 13480 area (red line) but more importantly any advance will be corrective looking

The bearish idea agrees with the European markets seeing a correction to the 5 wave decline and then they all setup for a move lower

Short term i suspect a low can be seen to the end of a 5 wave decline from 13595

Wave v = i @ 13326

Its a great start for the bears although we are into a setup where we can confirm if the market has a new high looming, or if the market is setup to smash any bullish setup and move lower under this trend line 

Costs Of Trading

Someone sent an email last week asking why my prices of my work were not on par with other competitors and do i offer a sub par service??

I guess he could not understand why i don't charge $150 a month as opposed to my low prices etc

At the time i thought it was an offensive comment to make considering the work i put into the site and forums etc

But having thought about it, it actually came of a surprise to the sender when i replied with my answer:

When you start trading there are costs involved, trading is NOT a hobby its a business and like every business it has up-front costs

So like my site at www.wavepatterntraders.com i have minimum costs each year/month that i have to pay

I have a chat room so i have to pay for costs for the software to be leased each year (plus there is an add on now which allows members to use an I-pad or smart phones like I-phones etc etc)

The server space to host the forum/site, i have to renew the domain each year as well

Occasionally i have to adjust the forum and add modifications, so i have to pay a developer to modify the site

And one last thing i have to pay for charting software from e-signal

So as traders you might have charting software which involves a cost per month/year

You also might have a subscription to a trading site if you are looking for ideas to trade etc

So if you are spending a set amount of $$ per month, then the 1st thing you need to be doing is making that $$$ back before you are break even

Ask yourselves the question? When you subscribe to any subscription service, are you finding value in that service? that is enough to make back those costs per month?

So if you are paying $150 or $200 a month, are you making those costs back each month?

Many traders get seduced with all the whistles and bells that services offer and actually forget that they are paying for these "so called benefits" when in fact they are not helping them make $$$

Things like, Overview, Buzz, Economic insight, the list goes on with all this "special stuff"

But the majority of it is worthless, all you should be interested in is ideas to make $$$, not spend hours reading stuff about what the ECB could do, or what Bernanke might do

Most of the stuff is free anyhow, just look at any of the forex sites out there and you can read a ton of articles

Do you really want to pay for something you can get for free?

I posted the links to a great Elliott Wave course on my site, its free on You Tube

Yet why would i do that if i offer one-one training?

Well again i want to help most that are interested in Elliott Wave, not try and rip them off and charge for something you can get for free on the Internet

After all you trade to make $$$, or is this some sort of addictive gambling game you are into?

So don't forget you pay costs each month, regardless if you have a full time job or full time trading, those are still costs each month you MUST recover 1st before you make a profit

Why are my prices far cheaper? Well i can assure its not because my work is sub par, i will put myself up against ANYONE and anyones work, i consider myself to be at the top of the game in my analysis

I charge what i charge for 2 reasons

1) If you a running a business you want to try and keep your costs low, i consider my work to be better than most peoples analysis you will see, certainly better than many that are charging in excess of $150 a month

The benefits of my site far outweigh what others that are charging 3 times as much as the most expensive package i offer, so if you subscribe to either a $30 or $50 package, then that's going to be easier to recover those costs back straight away than $150- 200 etc

But don't take my word for it, use the 4 week free trial

I want to open the doors of my site to everyone, not just the select few who can afford it. 

2) I have been where most traders have been, and when you start on the road to trading or looking to make money in the markets, you can ill afford to be spending fees of $150-250 a month just for ideas

So whilst this may seem a bit unconventional that i offer prices considerably below others, its because unlike many others i do it because i enjoy what i do and have passion in what i do and want to share that with other like minded traders/investors

I am a one person show, i don't give you whistle and bells i try to help members make $$$ and find strong high reward trades

Remember costs matter, unless you just like giving away free $$$, so think about your monthly costs.

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASX

Post taken from swing trade setup

Interested in following this trade? sign up and become a member.


I have been watching this for a few weeks and waiting patiently for it to enter its target zone at 4932 - 5150

I am now looking for evidence to sell this market, although its still in an uptrend, but with the US potentially near a peak, and the European markets now in a suspected correction to correct the 5 wave decline on the CAC, DAX and EURSTOXX50

I strongly suspect that the ASX could top out if the other markets head lower, and particularly as its entered the target zone, i am now in DEFCON mode for a potential peak

Short term we could be right on top of a peak inside the next few days, from 3985 i have labeled it as wave [a], and from the wave [b] low at 4333 it looks like a 5 wave advance is nearing its ending stages, and its hit the measured [c] = [a] objective as well

With strong resistance above things look good for the idea of a peak and a potential major peak as well, one that could see a move back to 3500

If the larger idea is correct and this is a [B] wave, then i would at least expect a move back towards 3650

If this truly was on the verge of a strong bull market, then it should not hang around the 5000 area, it should breakout to the upside and blow right above 5000

So this area into 5150 is now a key juncture for the ASX, if a larger [B] wave we should be in the process of finding a major peak

Many brokers and spread betting companies offer ASX as a trading vehicle, i think this is a great looking idea, all i need to see is some evidence of a reversal, to place short trades

Tuesday, February 5, 2013


Anyone that has been around the markets a while, will note the VIX tends to diverge at major turning points, at the last high on the SPX we got that divergence between the 2 markets

If you look back to the previous lows in the VIX, it shows a divergence (never makes a lower peak) between the SPX

The bulls would do well to head the signal as its a decent signal, although its far from confirmed, but the active trader, could have protected his/her portfolio with some cheap puts as the VIX was hitting extremes near 12.50

If the VIX rallies and we see a strong move lower in US stocks, protection is going to get a whole lot more expensive, but as usual not many will see any decline coming and it will only be when we see a serious decline will people take note and wake up

 When one looks at a daily chart of the SPX, we can clearly see an divergence on the last price, that couples with the VIX having seen a potential lower along with our working daily count suggests there could be strong evidence soon (if not completed already) of a serious decline setting up in US stocks