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Monday, May 27, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold Stocks (AUY, AG, RGLD)

A scan of some of the well known Gold stocks reveals a pattern that appears be familiar.


From the Nov 2012 highs, it still looks like its missing some gyrations to complete a 5 wave move, so for now i am looking lower under $13.61.

With a few gyrations missing, i suspect whilst staying under the blue line we will see some more sideways whipsaw.

Unless this stock can show me some impressive upside movement above $13.61, i still feel lower prices are ahead over the coming weeks/months.


This stock appears to be a little ahead of the some other Gold stocks, but i think any bounce will only be wave 4 of the trend that started back in Oct 2012.

So a bounce towards $60-62, for wave 4, then setup for wave 5 under $45.

A strong move above $70 would be a concern for the bears. Although a decent $10-12 move should be very close to setting up, if not already started.


Although its not a Gold stock its showing similar wave structure as the other 2 stocks, which makes sense as both Gold and Silver follow each other, and Gold stocks and Gold follow each other.

I am firm believer that if you find out when the Gold and Silver stocks put in a low, then you will find out when Gold and Silver put in a low.

From the Nov 2012 high, it appears to be close to ending wave 3, although it maybe in place, so a decent move to the upside towards $14.00 can be seen for wave 4, before moving lower in wave 5 to end a 5 wave cycle from the 2011 peak, much like the other Gold stocks.


If you are interested in following these stocks or analysis of these and other Gold stocks such as ABX, NEM, GFI, BVN

Both long and short term wave count ideas.

I am potentially going to put together a newsletter that i will send out once a week and update Elliott Wave counts and suggest trade setups, you get to know where the likely direction and when to buy and sell the stocks listed.

You will get to monitor these stocks via a PDF that will be sent to your email address once, maybe twice weekly if there is a need for it.

So this would be great for the Gold stocks investor, considering the declines on the markets, i think investors of Gold stocks can ill afford to be without solid analysis and Elliott Wave has led the field with predicating Gold stocks moving lower.

See my analysis here on the HUI


If you are interested in viewing this analysis, then please send me an email to enquires@wavepatterntraders.com

The report will be $15 a month and i am positive it will help your trading, knowing when to get in and when to get out without emotion must be better than getting butchered by what the Gold stocks have done to traders and investors over the past 6 months.

Simply understanding what was going on in the stocks mentioned could have saved you $1000s, isn't it about time you trusted someone with a proven history, or will you stick to the funnymentals argument that does not work, or those perma bullish Gold stock analysts that will never tell you to sell a stock.

If there is enough interest i will setup the report for investors to purchase, for $15 a month can you really afford to be without it?

Sunday, May 26, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of NEW (Newmont Mining Corp)

The monthly chart is now coming into some decent fibbo support, the decline from the Nov 2011 highs has matched the prior decline from the 2005-2008 move.

So just based on history it can suggest a low is close by, its already met a 78.6%  fibbo retracement, much like the retracement back in 2008.

Furthermore the point at which wave [C] = [A] is close by as well.

Short term there looks to be a few waves missing and i suspect we could still target that [C] = [A] area around $28.45.

It appears to still need waves [iv] & [v] of wave 3 then a bounce in wave 4.

A bounce for wave 4 of [C] should stay under the blue line, but ideally around $36.00, then head lower for wave 5 of [C].

As long as it stays under the blue line, then wave 4 should chop around under that area and head lower to target $28.45.

Its at that point i suspect a low risk buying opportunity will be setting up, although there are still a few opportunities for the short term trader that is flexible enough.

Sentiment is probably matching the sentiment back in 2008, Gold stock have fell out of love with investors and traders. although its natural to feel like that, everyone loves stock at the highs, but never at the lows.

Yet in order to make profits you need to be buying when its nice and cheap, but this is where i firmly Elliott Wave can help ups find some entries to get long this stock when the time come to "jump in".

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE

Update to the last FTSE posting

Short term i suspect this is ending wave [iii] from the 6225, this is a similar wave count to the SPX, so a reversal around 6830 would be the ideal around, its closing in on a fibbo target

Whilst it is above 6750 the trend remains up, a move back under 6750 will be a clue to suggest wave [iv] has started

I am targeting the 6600-6650 area for wave [iv], before setting up in wave [v] above 6900-7000

If we can see a decent decline for wave [iv] to 6650,  then a move higher for wave [v] it can also align with a peak around the 20-25th June as per the timing chart

Thursday, May 16, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE

The overall look on the FTSE in my opinion supports the case for a large ABC advance, although there are 2 ideas i am currently tracking, both ideas really suggest a potential pullback, based on the pullback will help confirm which idea is in progress

Idea 1: The idea in black suggests a potential termination to a larger WXY correction and is the preferred idea, based off the May 2012 lows it looks like its ending a 5 wave advance

The latest advance is showing a strong RSI divergence which supports the case of a 5th wave ending form the May 2012 lows

Idea 2: However, it maybe only be ending the idea in blue, but eventually a decent pullback towards 6200 is the idea and target the lower trend channel line

Although i have been looking for a peak in this market for the past 2 weeks, the structure suggests at minimum i would expect to see 6200 once a pullback starts. So whilst i am waiting for evidence of a reversal, i still suspect we could be close to a reversal based on the short term charts, although they maybe a few days away from completion

Another long term idea, is that of a triangle and its now ending wave C, so in a 5th wave of a potential C wave of a larger ABC, but the idea is still suggesting a potential peak and something significant

Although i am not much of a cycle trader there appears to be a nice 56Week cycle running on this market, so gives a potential date around the 24th June, although i focus on wave structure more than cycles

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of CBA,RIO and BHP (ASX)

Some of the resource and banking stocks in the Australian markets are looking like there could be some clean ideas to trade

Although i don't personally follow these stocks that much i am watching these banking and resource stocks for clues on the ASX


After a 5 wave decline from $72.38, its now correcting that decline, i am targeting the previous 4th wave around the $59.47 -60.00area, and that would also coincidence with the 38.2% of the whole 5 wave decline

As long as we see a 3 wave advance from $52.00 (ie wave [v] low) then it can setup for a move lower

Higher target could be as high as the $62.00, but for now i am focused on the initial target area around $59.50-60.00


Very similar to RIO and that its working the same corrective bounce, i would like to think we can see $34.34.50 before a reversal lower, but these 2 stocks appear to be tracking each other, so likely to peak and reverse lower together


Long term this could be close to ending a large WXY correction

Short term i suspect this is now in a 4th wave and could target towards $65-62

Saturday, May 4, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD

A small minor low here should complete a C wave of a flat pattern, which is likely ending a larger [X] wave and setting up a move towards 1.0700-800, so a good potential setup for a swing trade

I am really looking for support to be found around the 1.000, the 200DMA sits around that area as well.

For swing traders this is a great looking setup and the exact sort of setup that Elliott Wave traders thrive on.

So traders want to be actively looking for support on or above 1.000-1.0050

Elliott Wave Analysis Natural Gas

The past weeks reversal i suspect has finally marked an important peak and over the course of the following week ahead i am expecting a significant move lower on NG.

Currently we can label a small 5 wave decline from the last swing high, so a small bounce could be seen the early part of next week, as long as any bounce is a corrective move in 3 waves, that should offer traders the chance to sell this market as i suspect it will set up a 3rd wave which will be a very profitable wave to trade.

The advance over the the past 12 months is a corrective looking move, so argues strongly for the move to be completely retraced over the months ahead.

Target under $3.20