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Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GG, ABX, NEM, BVN, KGC, GFI, GOLD, HUI, GDX, XAU, HMY, SSRI

Being the season of good will, as a good will gesture, i have decided to make this months Gold stocks report free to readers.

Simply click on the link to download the PDF

Have a wonderful new year everyone, see you in 2014


Sunday, December 29, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of XLF Vs SPX

The advance from the 2009 lows on the XLF so far appears to be a 3 wave move. Its nearly met the measured target where wave [C] = [A], so in Elliott Wave terms we can label it as a potential ABC corrective advance.

Although a bullish move, its actually a bearish bounce against the decline from 2007-2009. its almost at the 50% retrace levels as well.

One of the reasons i suspect the SPX move from the 2009 lows is a B wave is the XLF showing a 3 wave bounce. A check of the history between the 2 markets reveals that in true bull markets the XLF and SPX tend to move in tandem.

If the XLF is actually coming to a conclusion and ending its cycle from the 2009 lows, then i would suspect the trend in the SPX will end as well

Interesting times ahead for both markets, the bulls need to really confirm a strong uptrend in both markets.

Failure to move much higher here could be a warning sign for the bulls.

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

The spike we saw last week could have possibly ended wave E of a large triangle (bearish idea) or wave [D] (bullish idea)

Usually when you see a move like we saw, that runs buy stops (above 13831 and 13850) and reverses back under the area where it rallied from, it generally marks a peak

So the evidence, whilst not conclusive, it does potentially suggest a peak and a move lower can be seen

Idea 1 suggests the large triangle that many Elliotticians are following, so its either finished wave E or close to finishing wave E

So in 2014 its going to be a nasty time for the EURUSD

Idea 2 suggest it can still see a pullback towards 128-130 but it will setup for a large move higher towards 155, that will suggest the US$ is going to pretty much crash

This idea actually aligns much better with my ideas Gold seeing a large move higher in 2014 back to $1500-1600

Due to the sideways range we have witnessed for the past 4 years (same as GBPUSD) there is no one pattern that stands out, its really all about the next large move lower, based on that structure will help confirm which idea is finally in control

We can clearly see where one goes, so will the other, i am still expecting some large moves in both pairs even if they stay in this range for another year, scaling down to the shorter term time frames we can easily find trade set ups

So if EURUD sees 120 GBPUSD should see sub 140

If EURUSD sees 155, GBPUSD should go to 170+

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

In my previous post,i showed a setup that i suggested to members to buy the dip with a target of 165


That target has now been reached, although there is the option of more upside whilst it remains above 16450

Its a deep pullback, larger than i would want to see, but if it can find some buyers above 16450 then i think this has the chance to see 166+

A strong break below 16540 would suggest a peak is in place and target 163 then 16220

You can count a 5 wave move from 16321, although the 5th wave is unusably large, it look more like its part of a 3rd wave as opposed to being a 5th wave.

16450 is a key area for both bull and bears

The bulls need to find some buyers quickly

Resistance at 16480

Long term ideas could suggest it might have ended (or close to ending) a large triangle over the past 4-5 years

With such a large range and the fact this pair has gone nowhere for nearly 5 years, traders need to focus on the 60 or 120 min charts for trade ideas, there have been plenty of opportunities if you know where to look

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Market Report: JPY Carry Trade Reversal?

In my last article I left readers with the potential idea of a peak in the US markets, although we saw a minor pullback, it was not the move or the initial decline I am expecting.

Although this minor new high in the SPX has caused me to adjust my wave counts a little, the thesis is still on track and I am expecting a large decline in the markets, in the early part of 2014.

Bearish Idea

S&P500 Weekly Bearish Idea Chart
Larger Image

I suspect this last spike we have seen over the past week is wave 5 of [5], so whilst it can push a bit higher I do think it's close to a reversal.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/32234/market-report-jpy-carry-trade-reversal

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

A setup that we are watching is to buy the pullback on this pair.

Stops need to be put at the last swing low at 16220, ideally this finds buyers between 16280-16320

You can see that buyers have stepped in already at the 61.8% retrace of the prior rally, but if a bit lower down, then i would expect buyers to support the market between 16280-163

Target 165+

So a nice risk/reward trade if you get the opportunity to buy nearer 163

Strong weekly support at 16280

Friday, December 20, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

I last wrote about this pair back in Oct see here: http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/10/elliott-wave-analysis-of-usdjpy.html

In that article i mentioned the fact that i believed the USDJPY was setting up for an exciting trade, true to its word it do not disappoint.

Having had a 105 for a few months now, the last few gyrations of this market appear to have possibly been put in place.

We have met those targets i put out in the Oct post.

Now that does not necessary mean a top is locked in place, what is does say is that i am no longer bullish this pair.

I am extremely cautious and looking for signs of a major top in USDJPY and have warned members that the time for being bullish is potentially over, we need to tread VERY CAREFULLY.

I am targeting a major move lower, one that can see towards the 95.00 area.

With the setup on NIK-225, I think 2014 could be once again "all about the JPY"

Bulls consider this a warning.



Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of VOD (FTSE)

I recently posted a potential timing chart of VOD on StockTwits see here: http://stocktwits.com/message/18150839

Its met a time and price fibbo cluster and i think holders of this stock should take some precautions and watch this stock very closely.

The FTSE is showing significant weakness compared to many other world markets.

From the highs made on the 12th Oct 2013 i can count a 5 wave decline, so if a bounce fails to completely retrace the decline, then it can setup for more downside in this stock and add further weakness to the FTSE, as the banks are also suffering in the FTSE.

There is a nice gap just above which will be the perfect area for this to tag and end the correction before setting up and moving lower.

The idea is wrong above the last swing high, (blue line) so that's where the stop needs to be.

Friday, December 13, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (via GLD)

The market continues to move lower towards our targets, whilst its causing frustration to many traders, for us its been a great ride. Members have continued to stay on the right side of the trend, either selling rallies or staying to sidelines until a trade setup presents itself.

Suffice to say i am quite proud of the way i have navigated the gyrations for members, as long as members are happy that makes me a happy person.

I am still looking for the 110 area but a new low under the June lows would technically complete the move. with some missing gyrations i still don't feel a long term buying opportunity has presented itself yet, although when the time comes members will be the 1st to know when i recommend we get long Gold.

Yes you read the right "get long and buy Gold"

What i find ironic is that i am now receiving mail telling me  i must be crazy to want to buy a "train wreck" (that was the best description i read)

Gold top

HUI top

I need to remind readers back in 2011 i was looking for a major top on HUI and Gold, i was getting the same sort of mail back then telling me i was nuts and crazy to be looking for a top,"don't stand in front of the freight train"  funny how sentiment has changed.

Now you cant find a Gold bull in sight (well apart from us). The lower this moves the more bullish i become.

When things are on sale in a supermarket, you see queues 2 miles long, yet when things are on sale in the markets, people run away. I never can work that out.

Decide if you want to be buying low when its nice and cheap. (subject to patterns and setups)


Follow the bag holders and buy high and sell low, its your choice.

Members of WPT will likely be buying when most are probably selling. But then we like to buy when no one want to hold them, and sell when everyone wants them.

As long as we come out on top its all good.


A look at GLD suggests the same idea as i am working on GC.

So a bit lower down towards 116 should end wave [v] of the larger wave 3 then setup for a bounce in wave 4 to around 122 before moving lower in wave 5 to under 114 and target the 110 area.

For now, continue to look lower under 120, as we are in a series of 4th waves, things can get a bit messy, i will adjust as needed ONLY if the current idea gets invalidated, but remain bearish under 120.

If this is the sort of analysis you are after then take a test drive.

For $9.99, decide if its right for you.

Sign up and put yourselves on the right side of the market, i cant promise you the earth, but i can promise you i will do my best to make sure members are on the right side of the trend.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Market Report: Clues From The Dow Industrials

In my last article I was looking for a reaction from the 1750SPX area. The continuation of the move higher has again forced me to reconsider other ideas.

In my last article, I was initially looking at a possible ending diagonal on the SPX (bearish wedge to non Elliotticians) but as I re-evaluated price structure in the other main US markets it became much clearer that the pattern in the SPX was not an ending diagonal as I initially thought, but some sort of ugly unorthodox flat pattern.

Although technically the ending diagonal pattern is still valid, but in light of the evidence in other US markets I decided to adjust the pattern to reflect the ideas on the Dow Industrials as well as the Dow Composite.

Bearish Idea

The move off the March 2009 lows currently counts best as a 3 wave move; I can count a 3 wave move, which in my opinion is very close to a reversal.
SPX Chart
Larger Image

Since my last article the SPX has moved just over 50 points, however the angle of the advance looks wrong for the previous ending diagonal idea. As I mentioned earlier, the patterns on the Dow industrials and Dow composite show a much clearer idea, which I think are important clues.

The SPX is slowly coming into a fibbo price time target I have been following. But without a reversal clue, this grind can push higher than the bears can stay solvent. Although we have been following the short term charts higher, it's now I think once again that a possible reversal can be seen, it's this area that an important reaction could be seen.

You can read the rest here:  http://www.safehaven.com/article/31974/market-report-clues-from-the-dow-industrials