Elliott Wave Training

Are you looking to learn the Elliott Wave principle? Or maybe you already have some experience and want to find the ways to improve your skills better.

Click on this post for details:

http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2012/04/elliott-wave-training.html



Thursday, October 31, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GLD

This is a follow up to a chart i posted on Stock Twits

See here: http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_16838429.png?1382971322

It appears that its pulling back, i am targeting towards the previous 4th wave at 126.57, the 50% retracement area is also a good spot at 126.14.

I think its probably going to be a messy decline, but as long as it shows the characteristics of a corrective decline, then we should find support around 126-126.50.


Short term, traders can look lower under 131, a strong move above 131 is a bullish sign.



Saturday, October 26, 2013

Market Report: SPX Target Achieved, Game time!!



It’s been a couple of weeks since my last article, so I figured it would be a good time for an update.

See here:  http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/10/market-update-wave-4-in-place.html

I left readers with the idea wave 4 was in place of the ending diagonal, a lot of has happened since then and we have actually hit my target of 1735-1750SPX and some more.


I have been working this ending diagonal pattern for a number of weeks, with the new all time highs, we now have enough gyrations in place to suggest the markets could well be setting up for a strong move lower.

With this last high now in place, it’s now that I am looking back to the bearish camp and a potential move lower, with many bears having thrown in the towel, I think the conditions are setting up nicely for a substantial reversal, if you look around, the bears that were too early in selling the rally have pretty much given up, despair and despondence is rife.

Equally the bulls are all out singing “Kumbaya my lord” as they are still betting that the FED will be the savior and this market can’t possibly move lower ever again.

Whenever a market is so one sided, generally I like to take the other side, although timing is crucial, this is where Elliott Wave patterns can help close the gap between being too early to fade a move.

Over the past month I have been expecting a new all time high in the SPX. We now have that new high and potentially the final piece of the jigsaw puzzle.

Friday could have ended that move, the short term the structure looks complete, enough to suggest that we should be on guard and actively looking for evidence of a move lower.


If I am right about this idea, then I am expecting a big move lower, a move that will likely shock most market participants.

However we need to see a strong break back under 1740SPX as the 1st clue. 

The euphoria about the stock markets reminds me of the peaks in Gold and Silver back in 2011, pretty much most participants were convinced that the markets would never move lower, or it was impossible for Gold and Silver to move lower with all the money printing. 

Well that thesis has been squashed and annulled, yet here we are with the SP-500 making new all time highs like it’s going out of fashion and the same market participants back in 2011 arguing that Gold and Silver would never go down are telling us the same thing, that the US stock markets will never go lower.

The stock market can never go lower, or will never move lower because of the FED.

The FED is not in control of the markets, they are simply providing the confidence for people to buy stocks,  sentiment is the main driver of the stock market right now.

When sentiment has had enough, things will reverse, and reverse in a big way, and likely to surprise many traders that get caught "holding the bag".

But when it happens, no one will see it coming expect for a few people, and when it does reverse, we will be there trading the decline. Just as members of WPT, who have been trading the upside of this move.

Readers need to decide if they want to be caught holding the bag, trying to get off the boat before it sinks, or think independently outside of the box.

Back when I was looking for a major peak on Gold and Silver, I was seeing similar market circumstances that I am seeing now on the US stock markets.

I suspect the US stock markets are setting up for a large reversal, and those that not prepared for such a move might just wish they got off the boat before it capsizes.

 If you are an independent thinker and looking for a non biased opinion, come and join us, having followed this market higher in the face of all the bearishness, and now seeing the bears all fold and scream, I believe it’s now that the markets could finally see a large reversal.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.

Nouf

Monday, October 21, 2013

Gold Stocks Index (NUGT & DUST) Elliott Wave Analysis

This is an update to my last post dated 15th Oct 2013.

http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/10/elliott-wave-analysis-of-gold-short-term.html

I cautioned the bears on Gold stocks that a bounce was likely setting up, i was seeing negative sentiment, as well as the set up on DUST and on HUI.

The actual set up on DUST and $HUI was key for me, there was too many DUST bulls on Stock Twits. proclaiming  this was "too easy"

When sentiment gets like that, alarm bells need to be ringing.

It appears that was the case

DUST Before:


DUST After:







The decline from the last high appears to be in 3 waves so far, so we want to see a new low to make it a 5 wave decline.

That will be a negative sign for the DUST bulls, although once a 5 wave decline is seen we should see a bounce in 3 waves to correct the decline, followed by more downside.

Any short term bounce i suspect is wave [iv], so requires to remain under $38.70.

But we can also watch the same idea on both NUGT and GLD.

Although i actually prefer to count on the underlining market as i find these 3xETFs have to much skew and don't always align 1-1 with the market they are meant to be tracking.

So the trade is to look to sell a bounce on DUST stops at $38.70.

NUGT




Or you can buy NUGT above $42.47 (its wrong below the blue line) and target a move above the last swing high to around $49.00.

GLD

Alternatively you can just play it via GLD.




 A dip to around $125.50 would be ideal stops need to be at $124.38 as that would be a rule violation if wave [iv] moved below the top of wave [i].

Target 128.50

If we were to see a 5 wave move on both NUGT and GLD, that would be bullish sign (5 wave decline on DUST).


Sunday, October 20, 2013

Gold Stocks Report (Updated)

The next updated report is available for purchasing (members get it for free, it will be posted in HUI forum).

If you never purchased the 1st report, then in order to purchase the current updated report as well as the previous reports (I will send both so it helps with the ideas).

You will require to go to select the Gold stocks report option (look right) for $20.00.

Once I receive your payment I will send your reports to the email address that is on your purchase statement (please check your spam or trash folder).

If you have already purchased the first report last month, then you can purchase the updated report for a reduced price of $10, that’s a saving of $10.

You don’t have to purchase the report, you can wait and purchase any additional reports when you feel it necessary, but any further reports will still be the same reduced price.

Simply select the option of "Updated Report" for $10.

However I will require you to forward me evidence of a prior purchase, if you can’t supply me an invoice, then I will not accept your order; you will require to purchase any order at the full price.

The reason why I ask for evidence or a prior purchase, is to stop anyone trying to purchase a report for the 1st time at a reduced price.

Stock included are: Gold Corp (GG), Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM),

Compania De Minas Buenaventu (BVN), Kinross Corp (KGC), Gold Fields (GFI), Randgold (GOLD) and analysis of the $HUI.

I have also added additional analysis of SSRI $XAU, GDX and Harmony Gold (HMY)



The PDF is actually larger than the 1st report at 17 pages.

Regards

Jason Soni (aka Nouf)

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (short term)

I have been working the idea of seeing $1240 for a few weeks, just after the FOMC was when i really started to suspect its a possible triangle


Although it needs far more price action to fully confirm that idea, based on the daily chart i suspect its working a complex 4th wave.

A triangle is a very common pattern, hence i got on board about 2 1/2 weeks ago and working the idea of a low around $1240 for a possible [b] wave.




The decline from $1433 is NOT impulsive, contrary what other Elliotticians are counting, its a corrective looking decline, although as we have been targeting $1240 it has made no difference as i have been advising members to to remain short this market.

Currently Gold is a sell under $1300, but the closer it gets to $1240 (our 1st target) then more cautious i become.

I have noticed sentiment has really tuned nasty over the last few days.

When this was at $1420 i suggested that this would be setting up for a reversal, much to the disgust of the Gold bulls that idea as promptly ignored..

Funny how it worked out quite well, when Gold was at $1420 all i kept reading was the "low was in" and say hello $1640 next stop.

I guess traders never spotted the 3 wave bounce from $1180 then?

I think the Gold bull bus must of derailed or something?

Which brings me back to my point about being cautious here if you are short Gold or bearish here.

Now i am reading targets of $1100 and $1000.

Funny how i never saw those targets when it was at $1420, yet as Gold has puked, the "late to the party" bears come out and get vocal, errrr where have you been?

If i am right about a possible bear trap, then i suspect its going to find support around $1240 and potentially surprise many bearish traders.

That's not to say I am uber bullish, but there can be a nasty move higher here for those that are now deciding to join the "short bus".

I still think this sees under $1180, but i personally don't think it will be a straight run lower, i think the market could have a few tricks left.

I would be very careful if you are short Gold as it approaches $1240.

As Gold approaches $1240 i am also watching Gold stocks via the $HUI.

We can see from the last swing high it looks like a 3 wave decline and getting close to support near $200-2010

If both Gold and $HUI stay as a 3 wave decline, that will support the idea of this being in a [b]
 wave and a possible bear trap.


 
When i look at $DUST, it reminds me of the peak on $DUST a few months again, the sentiment towards $HUI, $NUGT and $DUST is starting to get intensive, hence if $DUST stays as a small wedge/ending diagonal it is suggesting a reversal.

So if $DUST reverses HUI and NUGT should reverse as well



Sunday, October 13, 2013

Market Update: Wave 4 in Place?



Last week I left readers with the idea that I was looking for a low for wave 4, of what I believe is an ending diagonal on the weekly chart of the SPX.

See here : http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/10/market-report-set-up-of-lifetime.html

We got the gap down I suspected, although it did run a bit lower than I initially targeted, I was looking for around the 1660SPX area, it over ran that move, but like all good “flushes” they tend to squeeze out most traders right before it reverses.

Last week’s rally was actually expected by us, as we were looking for wave 4 of the ending diagonal idea, however the strength was something that did surprise me, although with the bearish blogs proclaiming the end of the world again, its set up a great bear trap for most of the participants, thankfully not us.

This is exactly why I focus on price and patterns and not the news, most traders get bearish at the lows and bullish at the highs, we went into last week looking for a low as I still feel this market will see a new all time high.


Before
 





After



The powerful rally last week suggests that is still to be the case.

Short term there appears to be a 5 wave advance off the lows made last week, so we should see some sort of pullback early next week. Providing any decline remains above last week’s lows at 1646, then I still think we can look higher and target 1735-1750SPX.

So readers/traders can look to buy into any corrective decline, ideally around the 1670SPX stops at 1646SPX.

With the large swings, I suggest using options as the market volatility is picking up and we are seeing large moves, and traders need to adjust to that.


Before



After



Only a reversal back under last week’s lows would negate the set up.

An alternative idea I am also watching is that of a possible new all time high, but in 5 waves not in 3 as the prior idea would need.



This would suggest the advance is now in wave [5] and likely target above 1750SPX, again any decline would require to remain above 1646SPX.

I will leave it there for this week.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week.