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Sunday, April 20, 2014


Looking around for an edge, i noticed the TNX yields have yet to make a new low, that is basically the same idea as the USDJPY and NIK-225 ideas and at least one more new low needed

So this current rally i believe is a "head fake" and a trap for the bulls. If i am correct then we should see a reversal in all 3 markets.

The SPX is making minor new yearly and all time highs, but "under the hood" USDJPY and TNX (10 year yields) are not confirming the SPX move, hence i believe this rally is still a trap.

If yields on TNX and TYX are correcting the previous rally into the new year highs we should still see a bit more downside on yields, hence stocks move lower along with USDJPY.

ZB and ZN should move higher etc.

So whilst US stocks are giving an impression of a bullish setup, i caution traders to be too bullish as the moves into the last 2 highs on SPX (ie the last 2 all time highs) were not confirmed by TNX and USDJPY, we saw the result of that non confirmation.

Unless USDJPY and TNX joins the party the move on the SPX and US stocks is probably a "bluff" and the bulls will be trapped again.

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of NIK-225 & USDJPY

Bottom line: Sell Japan, I think both markets still need at least one more leg lower to complete a corrective WXY decline from their respective peaks.


If you take a non-biased approach and simply counted the decline as you see it, you can clearly see there are 7 swings from 105.34 - 100.74, so by definition its a corrective decline, or part of a larger more complex pattern. The move from 100.74 - 104.12 is also a corrective set of waves and thus labeled a corrective bounce.

This would still imply that USDJPY should see a move back under 100.74 to complete a potential WXY correction from 105.34, ideally targeting towards 99.50.

The market is bearish under 104.12, whilst it remains under that area we should see at least a new swing low under 100.74. Resistance is between 102.80 - 103.50 but its subject to the current bounce.


The decline from 16452 - 13943 appears to be a 7 swing move, so by definition its a corrective decline or at least part of a larger more complex pattern.

The move from 13943 - 15236 is again a corrective series of waves, if you take a closer look you will notice the large divergence between the 2 markets, a sure sign of an impending reversal.

When we see this inter-market divergence its generally seen at reversal points, in this case it was a peak for both markets, but we can also see that sort of divergence at major lows as well, 2 markets that follow in each others footsteps suddenly diverge from one another.

Whilst the NIK-225 is under 15236 we should see at least a new low towards 13500 possibly towards 13000 depending on the next decline.

Based upon the current wave structure it still appears to be missing at least another leg lower in both markets, so the moral of the story is to look to sell Japan for a move lower.

USDJPY is bearish below 104.12

NIK-225 is bearish below 15236

NIK-225 = NIK-225 futures not the cash market

Its now closing in on my initial target i had targeted back in  Dec 2013, way before this current decline, such is the power of Elliott Wave used in  the right hands.

If it remains as a corrective looking decline, then it could potentially be a large 4th wave, which would imply new yearly highs to come before the trend is finished from the 2009 lows.