In my last article I wrote that we were looking for more upside, the SPY and ES are the first markets to confirm the upside move we have been expecting, although the SPX has yet to confirm a new all time high, the DAX and DOW are likely to confirm the move that we have seen on the ES and SPY. Both the DAX and DOW have similar patterns to the SPX but they need a bit more upside, which I think will be seen this coming week.
For the last few weeks I have been monitoring a potential ending diagonal and in the face of all the bearish news the bulls did what was needed and really stuck it to the bears. As I mention numerous times to members, news is just garbage and those that use the news to make trading decisions are likely to be on the wrong side of the market direction.
The bears have tried to use virtually every conceivable excuse to look to sell, but the stubbornness of the markets have completely wrong footed those that were convinced of a sell off due to the Crimea or Ukraine conflicts. It just goes to prove that the news is garbage and price and patterns are more important. Well they are to us.
Simply put the market was suggesting it wanted higher, patterns also confirmed it wanted higher, and here we are, just about to make a new all time high.
It’s now that I am warning members not to get too overly bullish on these markets, if I am right about the ending diagonal, we are likely a few days away from completion and a strong decline setting up, with the media all gleefully happy about the market sitting just under the prior all time highs, now is not the time to be throwing caution to the wind, whilst I have been warning members not to be getting too bearish, as soon as we get a new high its then I will be looking to jump back into my bear suit.
If you recall as the market sold off in April, the media was convinced that it was starting a 10% correction. What about “sell in May” that everyone was so convinced of, sell in May huh! More like spank the bears in May.
We at wavepatterntraders simply follow what we see; we don’t confirm to any market statistics, if the markets suggest they want up, we will follow it higher. Likewise if we see a setup that can suggest a move lower we will look to sell the market, we feel that such an occasion has presented itself once again and we are looking to try and capitalize on that just as we did on the January puke I warned about.
If the market is finally ending the trend from the Oct 2011 lows, then we can expect to see a target initially towards 1750SPX, but suspect we could see towards 1600-1550SPX, our focus now is trying to confirm that this ending diagonal idea is coming to an end and try to get positioned for a large decline.
We have also been watching a possible timing peak window, a 53 week cycle (+/- 2 weeks) seems to be a common theme for this market, so that’s a potential clue to suggest the ending diagonal could be very close to completion and see the much awaited pullback everyone expects, although I think with the market making new all time highs, I would dare say not many are not expecting a “swift swoon” a decline that could really shake up the bulls.
The furthest thing on the bulls minds is a sell off, if the ending diagonal is correct, hold on to your hat things are about to get a little uncomfortable for our horned friends.
Whilst the decline in January was a great move for us, I am expecting a much larger decline, so looking to get members properly positioned for the expected decline.
As always ideas are always subject to revision, nothing is every case in stone, our objective is to find ideas to help members make $$$, if we are wrong, we can live with that. Being wrong is OK, but just make sure you are not wrong for long is our motto.
Until next time,
Have a profitable week ahead.