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Thursday, July 24, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold

Post taken from the forum.


From 1324.60 this is not a great looking decline, so i am going to keep some options open, below 1305 is near term bearish, but there could still be a couple of other ideas that we need to watch for.

Above 1305 can start to suggest a move to 1315-1320 for wave [c] of a triangle, or even a move back towards 1325-1330 and a nasty short squeeze, in wave [y].

The key point i want to make, regardless of the move, the market remains bearish below 1345 on a 4h time frame, lets not forget the larger 5 wave decline from 1345.

Saturday, July 19, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of XLF & SPX

From the 11th April lows both the XLF and SPX appear to be working an impulse wave, the Elliott Wave structure suggests that a new high is to come to complete the cycle.

An impulse wave consists of 5 waves, I suspect the last few days the SPX and XLF have been inside a messy sideways triangle and probably started the 5th wave"thrust" to new yearly highs. A triangle is a nasty pattern to trade, but to an Elliottician its a great clue, the most common position for a triangle is a 4th wave.

So just by knowing that we can summarize that the SPX and XLF likely still have a new high to come for a 5th wave and end a 5 wave move from the 11th April lows.

That will then setup for a reversal. So the trade short term is to try and get in early for the "thrust" (so buying longs) or if you are looking to sell, I would wait for the new highs, then sell those highs.

The RSI is confirming that the move we have seen is likely a 4th wave triangle, so we still need new highs to complete its cycle. Once we see a new high on the SPX the next target after that is around 1920-30SPX, this cycle is part of a larger 5 wave move that started from the Feb 2014 lows.

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Friday, July 18, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold

Whilst many traders react to the news, we at wavepatterntraders.com react to the charts.

We don't care for the news, we only are interested in the reaction to the news. As you can see we had a great road map to use, nailed many turns on the way, whilst many were bullish at the 1340 area we were bearish looking for a reversal. Once it took out our key support at 1330, we knew then we were selling against 1338.

Members were given the map to use, we knew what to look for and where the idea was wrong.

Once again Elliott Wave nails the gyrations to the tick, Elliott wave in the right hands is deadly. Of course having an expert Elliottician sure helps things go along smoothly.

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Below 1345 we are bearish and looking for more downside .

Sunday, July 6, 2014

Elliott Wave Hedging (TBT)

At times there are various ways an Elliottician can count a number of corrections but its still part of a larger pattern.

A recent example was on TBT

I was looking at 2 ideas, the first idea was very bullish, the other idea was bullish but needed a bit more downside first before more upside.


You can see that we could count a 5 wave move on TBT from 59.57, looking at TLT we could count the same move only it was down instead of up.

So i was looking for a corrective pullback, corrections are difficult to count let alone trade, so you can only really target specific zones.

"A small pullback here can setup for a move higher, although i can see the potential for a minor new low towards 61.00 for an alt idea in blue
So i can only suggest you hedge the ideas and buy a dip for the idea in black but add if a dip to 61.00, put your stops at 59.57

That way you are covered for both ideas"

I wrote the above with the chart on 20th June.

But we knew that the idea was wrong below 59.57 so members were advised to buy dips at 62.50 and if it dipped lower, buy and add at 61.00

By splitting the position in 2 parts it allowed us to "Elliott Wave  hedge" ideas.

As long as the stop was at 59.57 members knew where the risk point was.

You can see it did actually push under 61.00 but in the context of the prior 5 wave move from 59.57 it was still valid as a correction and pullback against that move.

Elliott Wave hedging is very common amongst good Elliotticians as long as you understand the context of the pattern its a very valuable tool.

Above 60.45 we remain bullish TBT, so rates are set to move to the upside.


Now being bullish is fine, but any good Elliottician will also be fully aware that this could actually be a simple 3 wave ABC bounce from 59.57 as shown.

If the market struggles to move much above 65.00, it could suggest some weakness, if it reverses and pukes hard back under 61.50 i would say that's a big warning for the bulls on TBT.