Elliott Wave Training

Are you looking to learn the Elliott Wave principle? Or maybe you already have some experience and want to find the ways to improve your skills better.

Click on this post for details:

http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2012/04/elliott-wave-training.html



Monday, October 27, 2014

Market Report: Has The FTSE Put in a Major Top?

The strong decline on the FTSE over the past few weeks may have come as a surprise to many traders but for us it was expected. It really could not have gone any better for members. I have been warning members for a number of weeks to expect a strong reversal and a crash style move, although we have been preparing for a strong decline; members have also been trading the upside, as before members could trade the downside we needed to see the 6900 area tested.


Before


After

Short term we can count a 5 wave decline from 6904, so that's a positive sign for the bears, currently we are looking for a corrective bounce in 3 waves to end around 6400-6500. Once any corrective bounce and retracement of the prior decline is finished. We are looking for the next leg lower, that move is expected to exceed 6000, if it's as aggressive and bearish as I think it will be, it's going to be a terrific trade and better than the initial decline from 6904. Our risk point at this stage is 6904, which is too large, so we are looking for evidence of the next leg lower.
The key now is the make sure any retracement is in 3 waves, if so then we will be looking to put on shorts and advise members to sell this market, if it's really put in a long term major top we are expecting a serious decline over the next few months and potentially retesting the March 2009 lows again.
As always the long term ideas are subject to revision as a lot can happen between now and a few years out, but as our primary focus is on the short term charts the long term charts usually take care of themselves.
If this style of analysis is the sort of analysis that you are interested in, then I encourage you to check out our site, if you need to know what is likely to happen before it happens then I think our work can help you, no matter if you are an investor or trader.
Until next time,
Have a profitable week ahead

Saturday, October 18, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis on USD/SGD

A pair that i track closely for clues on the DX momentum, is USD/SGD, although we don't actually follow it regularly over at wavepatterntraders.com, it is a good proxy for the US$ movements.

You can see that its stalled a bit over the last few days, i suspect its a triangle, so once its finished we should see more upside and "thrust" higher towards 1.1283 - 70 to end wave [v]. As USD/SGD moves higher so should the DX and USDCHF.

So by using other closely correlated patterns we can get a strong opinion now on what the US$ should do over the week ahead.




The price structure on both USD/SGD and EURUSD is very corrective looking and supports the idea that once they are both finished the US$ should resume higher. Which fits in with our thesis that as EURUSD moves lower, the DX and USD/CHF move higher.



Sunday, October 12, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Coffee (JO)

Back in April I issued a couple of warnings on StockTwits that a significant pullback was setting up, I was targeting the $32.00 area, which around the 50% retracement of the prior rally

See here: http://stocktwits.com/message/22165570

And here: http://stocktwits.com/message/22388553

As you can see those charts nailed the top and bottom near $32.00, virtually to the tick and that warning was very real. I noticed at the time that  sentiment was very bullish, which is usually the case when a market makes a 5th wave, yet those that understand price action were the ones trying to "get out" as most traders/investors were trying to "get in".

Such is the way with the markets, most are bullish at the top and bearish at the lows.

I am now issuing another warning for those that wish to listen. Sentiment is once again bullish and many are expecting the market to race higher, but i urge some caution here as a suspect this maybe a "B wave trap".

The move from the lows in Jul 2014 appear to have a 3 wave look, further more the measured move target where the 2nd up leg equals the 1st leg sits at around 43. Hence it could be a B wave of a flat pattern.

If the market finds trouble at 43 and we see a strong reversal back under 37.00 I fear traders will again buying a bull trap just as they bought the Apr 2014 highs only to see it crash 50%.

In order to confirm a strong 3rd wave to the upside, the bulls need to see a strong gap up over 44.00 and blast higher, failing that i suspect the bulls maybe disappointed.



A bit of patience here could save you making a big mistake buying the market.

If a 3rd wave to the upside you will have plenty of time to get on board as there will be plenty of upside.