Elliott Wave Training

Are you looking to learn the Elliott Wave principle? Or maybe you already have some experience and want to find the ways to improve your skills better.

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http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2012/04/elliott-wave-training.html



Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AAPL. Show all posts

Monday, August 12, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL

The post was copied from the forum.

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We can label this as a possible end to wave [4], if so we should see an aggressive decline from here for wave [5] and target $365, we can look lower under $471.92.



One reason i suspect this is still inside wave [4] is the last low failed to show any RSI divergence whilst its not mandatory for a 5th wave to show RSI divergence, its very common and that generally tends to warn traders that a trend change is about to happen.



The alt idea is that we see a dip to around $410-415 then setup a move higher for a larger wave B to around $530-550.


Friday, April 19, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL

I have received a few requests for this stock and could i explain my projections and ideas.

Normally i don't really do requests, expect from members, but as its been more than a few requests i am going to make an exception.

If seems many bulls are still pulling their hair out trying to understand what is going on and i think many are "desperately" trying to convince themselves that this is suddenly going to rally back to the lofty highs it attained at the $700 mark.

Having studied and researched the DNA of many "blow offs' in history it was without doubt IMO a blow off, to those analysts that actually took the time to research this, you could see all the hallmarks of a mania and the likely reversal that ALWAYS occurs after such a move.

Gold, Silver, Oil, other commodities etc, AAPL traded like a commodity and reversed like a commodity as well. A momentum driven speculative bubble driven on greed.

Lets start with some of the basics to a "blow off"

1. Parabolic curve and insane angle -  AAPL clearly had this as i posted right before the "top" (check)



2. Mania herding - Traders piling in at the top, not a care in the world, revised targets every day, cant do no wrong, its the easiest trade in the world, Grandma and Grandpa are making tons of money. (check)

It was clearly a speculative mania, that brought almost everyone to buy this stock.

Remember the calls for $1000, 1200 etc. its the easiest call on the planet to just  follow others.

People giving their life savings to a rookie such as Andy Zaky of Bullish Cross is a classic example of greed and how the mighty have fallen. Zaky destroyed many lives in the process as well, although he is not to be blamed, the investors that never understood the risk have to accept their mistakes as well.

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2013/03/04/apple-zaky-bullish-cross/

3. Greed and denial -  When i made the call on Twitter to get out of AAPL at $700 as it was likely going to crash  i was harassed for days and abused by the bulls, i had emails calling me names and telling me i was a fool and an idiot, AAPL will never go down because it makes gazillliioonnnsss, and a cash cow, that was basically the gist of the emails.

Oh how wrong those AAPL bulls were. If they just stopped to look at history they really could have saved themselves a lot of pain. Instead of looking at history, the AAPL bulls were too busy counting the millions of $$ that they thought they would be getting and not looking at the potential for things to go wrong.

4. I guess a completed Elliott Wave pattern, that suggests the end to the trend and end of wave 5 would help as well , i posted this to members before the peak.

So lets look at what is going on in AAPL and what i expect to happen going forward

Long term


If you look at the long term chart it shows a 5 wave advance from the lows made in 1997, and furthermore you can clearly see it was a 5th wave "blow off"

Its rare to see such a move in a stock, as generally extended 5th waves are seen in commodities, such as the move we saw on oil into the all time high in 2008.

Having put in a 5 wave advance into the $700 area, the likely target and guideline is for the market to come back and test the 2nd wave of the extended 5th wave.

So that's basically a test of $200 (red line). Before readers disregard this target, i want to point out, "my precious" AAPL was at $700 and now sits at just under $400.

If the trend keeps moving lower and it shows no sign of reversing and the declines are moving lower in 5 waves and correcting in 3 wave bounces, then i expect the $200 area to be reached. (subject to bounces and corrections)

There is a 2nd target lower down and target the $75 area, although for now the $200 still seems the safer bet and another 50% haircut from current levels.

Medium term

Its not a clean picture although its clearly moving lower, its not showing much clarity, hence i suggest focusing on the short term charts for trades and risk analysis. When its unclear on a time frame, its much better to move to a time frame that does make sense.

Short term

Whilst it remains under $437.98 we can continue to look lower, whist the medium picture is a little confusing with regards to the Elliott Wave on a 4hr and daily level.

On a 60 and 120 min level its much clearer and we can use $437.98 as a key area the bears must defend.

It appears to be a small 5 wave decline from $437.98, so if a small bounce is seen in 3 waves it will offer traders the chance to sell the market.













Monday, January 28, 2013

Market Report: Still Waiting

From last week's report, the markets have not done much, other that chop and around, although they did move a little bit higher. My main wave count is still applicable at this time; I don't see anything at this time to concern me, although should the markets go on a tear to the upside I will obviously have to consider my options, but as it stands I still like the idea of a potential reversal setting up.
Is it time to put on the bear suits? Currently the answer is still a no, although the potential is there, the trend is still up and must be respected until we see a breakdown.
I originally targeted the 1480-1500SPX as an area of interest, and we briefly hit the top end of that range, although the idea is not actually invalid until its above 1551SPX, although personally I wouldn't want to see this above 1530SPX, so we still have some room to spare should the market want to squeeze a bit higher first.


SPX
Larger Image


You can read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/28566/market-report-still-waiting

Saturday, October 20, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of CMG (Chipotle)

Blow offs always end in tears as the holders of this stock found out, in a few short months what took just over 3 years to get to the peak, in a few months 50% has been lost

Simply vanished from the giant ponzi scheme that this stock was, everyone loves this stock when its going up, but when the rug is pulled, we see this stock for what it was, a great big ponzi scheme

So it cant happen to AAPL right??


Just before the highs i posted this chart of APPL


Side by side we can see what happens when these types of moves breakdown


Earnings are out next week, it will be an interesting week for AAPL and the NDX if AAPL don't deliver

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL






The advance from the lows at $565 looks to be ending a potential 5 wave rally. However what is that rally part of? If you know the answer to that, you should have 2 important decisions to make:

1) The direction of the next large move in AAPL

2) The direction of the next large move in the NDX

Most traders should be aware of the close relationship between AAPL and the NDX, so its important to follow AAPL as it has such an important effect due to the weighting in the NDX

If you want to follow the next likely outcome, then come and join us, we cant make promises but you have a game plan to take with you going forward, and most importantly what we are expecting and where the idea looks wrong

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL


Time to buy some puts on AAPL?, it sure does like a wedge for wave [v]

If so a strong reversal is suspected to be setting up

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL (again)



One day this might actually go down, but it sure reminds me of the NAZ bubble and some stocks that at the time never looked like reversing

Then one day, they stopped!!! oh they crashed and the rush of sellers dwarfed any buyers

Virtually everyone must be long this stock, still got a nasty RSI divergence

Monday, March 5, 2012

Market Report: Is Apple a Blow Off?

Anyone that has studied the markets for a length of time, should really have seen many examples of a blow offs over the past 10 years or so, there appears to be a characteristic that you see just before the eventual reversal.

Read the rest here.

Friday, March 2, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL


From the last minor swing low at $486, this looks like it still potentially needs a pop higher to finish an ugly looking 5 wave advance, there is a possibility that its actually finished, as per the alt count, but whilst it appears as a possible triangle, i will give the benefit to the Bulls to run it higher

Blow off style moves are very difficult to count let alone trade, think back to Gold and Silver last year, the rally recently in AAPL reminds me of that, it goes up till the very last buyer stops buying, then eventually it will puke under its own weight as the buyers have exhausted themselves

Monday, February 6, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL


AAPL is to the NDX as IBM is the DOW

With what i think is a 5 wave advance completed and hit a much awaited target of $430

We are now at a point that the Bulls imo should take note, as a reversal from here could be an aggressive move and one that could just surprised many

In order for the market to go off in some massive upside move here, i would like to see both the IBM and AAPL ideas blow away 1st