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Showing posts with label ASX. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ASX. Show all posts

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of SPI (XJO)

I would still like to see that new yearly high above 5450 to complete this idea, i am not a fan of truncations and the ES (aka SPX cash market ) still have a set up that can see new all time highs, as does the INDU.

So above 5372, short term i will give the benefit to the bulls to rock it on higher and stick it to the bears.

Only a strong reversal would suggest a peak in place, but atm i don't yet see the evidence on this market or the US markets. for a peak in place.

I have a cycle chart that suggests a peak into the end of Nov early Dec on SPX.

That fits nicely with this idea of a push higher.

Alt idea is a small triangle (sideways zzzzzzzzz price action for a few more days).

If we do see a new yearly high, i am watching for a RSI divergence with price, that will be a good sign its a small 5th wave.

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of XJO/ASX "The Case for a Major Peak"


The decline from 2007 into the 2009 lows appears to be complex decline so I am labeling it as a large [W] wave; I am not comfortable labeling it as a 5 wave decline. Currently it’s in wave [X], so we ideally see a simple ABC bounce.  As we take a closer look it also looks like its ending wave C of that bounce as both waves A and C have a “5 wave look”.

We currently have a large divergence which is what we would expect to see on a 5th wave, and it’s still under the equality target where wave C = A. So whilst we could label it as waves 1 and 2 of a bull market (where we have labels waves A & B) the fact that we are seeing momentum loss and we can also count 5 waves for wave C of [X], suggests this is part of a large ABC from the March 2009 lows.

Regardless of the time frame, a 3 wave bounce (suspected at this stage) is still a 3 wave move. So by definition it’s a counter trend bounce against the decline from 2007-2009.

We have sentiment that is bullish, I am reasonably sure not many traders or investors think this market can reverse, but many traders thought that at the last peak. Incidentally the same sort of sentiment was seen back then at the May 2013 high, before it crashed 600 points. I was bearish at the May 2013 highs as well just before it topped. As shown in this chart just before the May 2013 top. 

I would say it has followed the script nicely.

I am expecting a far stronger reversal than 600 points.

This is just a sample of the report

To view the rest please click on the link, its a free PDF


Wednesday, August 7, 2013

For the Attention of Australian & Asian Traders

I have been thinking about putting together a package for Australian and Asian traders, judging from the conversations i have had with traders from that part of the world, it appears that there is a lack of Elliott Wave analysis towards the Asian and Australian markets.

Although currently i do monitor markets like the Hang Seng, Nikkei and ASX. I also monitor some ASX stocks. They are not as frequent as my postings on the US and European markets, this is simply because most of the members are either US or European traders.
However if there is enough support i am potentially looking at putting together a package for Australian and Asian investors/traders.

So if you are an Asian or Australian investor/trader and have some suggestions can you please let me know what sort of markets you would be interested in.

Stocks as well as the main index markets.

As if i put together something it needs to be of value to any potential member.

Initially it will be free as i want to generate interest, so you can see my work 1st hand, then decide if it is of any benefit, but it would be on par with my other work.

Any ideas and suggestions can be forwarded to Enquires@wavepatterntraders.com

If you are interested in viewing this analysis, can you please let me know as i will add your name to a list and then setup an account for each member, should i eventually start something.


Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of CBA,RIO and BHP (ASX)

Some of the resource and banking stocks in the Australian markets are looking like there could be some clean ideas to trade

Although i don't personally follow these stocks that much i am watching these banking and resource stocks for clues on the ASX


After a 5 wave decline from $72.38, its now correcting that decline, i am targeting the previous 4th wave around the $59.47 -60.00area, and that would also coincidence with the 38.2% of the whole 5 wave decline

As long as we see a 3 wave advance from $52.00 (ie wave [v] low) then it can setup for a move lower

Higher target could be as high as the $62.00, but for now i am focused on the initial target area around $59.50-60.00


Very similar to RIO and that its working the same corrective bounce, i would like to think we can see $34.34.50 before a reversal lower, but these 2 stocks appear to be tracking each other, so likely to peak and reverse lower together


Long term this could be close to ending a large WXY correction

Short term i suspect this is now in a 4th wave and could target towards $65-62

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASX

Post taken from swing trade setup

Interested in following this trade? sign up and become a member.


I have been watching this for a few weeks and waiting patiently for it to enter its target zone at 4932 - 5150

I am now looking for evidence to sell this market, although its still in an uptrend, but with the US potentially near a peak, and the European markets now in a suspected correction to correct the 5 wave decline on the CAC, DAX and EURSTOXX50

I strongly suspect that the ASX could top out if the other markets head lower, and particularly as its entered the target zone, i am now in DEFCON mode for a potential peak

Short term we could be right on top of a peak inside the next few days, from 3985 i have labeled it as wave [a], and from the wave [b] low at 4333 it looks like a 5 wave advance is nearing its ending stages, and its hit the measured [c] = [a] objective as well

With strong resistance above things look good for the idea of a peak and a potential major peak as well, one that could see a move back to 3500

If the larger idea is correct and this is a [B] wave, then i would at least expect a move back towards 3650

If this truly was on the verge of a strong bull market, then it should not hang around the 5000 area, it should breakout to the upside and blow right above 5000

So this area into 5150 is now a key juncture for the ASX, if a larger [B] wave we should be in the process of finding a major peak

Many brokers and spread betting companies offer ASX as a trading vehicle, i think this is a great looking idea, all i need to see is some evidence of a reversal, to place short trades

Friday, December 21, 2012

Time to get out? (ASX)

With potential patterns on all 3 markets, AUDUSD, HG (Copper) and ASX now met their objectives, we are seeing a reversal in AUDUSD and Copper, the ASX is a little behind the curve, but you can see how the AUDUSD and HG markets tend to give a little warning 1st

So the question is:

Q: Is now the time to get out of Australian stocks?

A: I think the bulls need to think about taking some $$ of the table, having hit my 4650 target, i would be a seller if i owned Australian stocks and take the $$$ and go and enjoy the New Year and Christmas time without any stress

If the ideas change you can always get back in, but you cant get your $$ back if you see a hard sell off and you are not prepared.

The ASX is getting ahead of itself and the patterns from the 2011 lows in many Asian markets are suggesting a setup to reverse, particularly the Hang Seng (HSI), which has a high correlation with the ASX, as does Copper.

The don't ring the bell at the top, but clues from other markets could be suggesting the time has come to take profits and be cautious.

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Asian Markets ASX, HSI, SET100, NIK-225, KOSPI, SENSEX

I have decided to open the Asian forums for the rest of December. Although i never actually offered a service on these markets, they were provided for members as an "add on" to full members (only full members have access). They were generally requests from members.

I tend to update them when something has either negated the idea, or if a market is nearing a suspected conclusion.

Its built up now to around 6 markets from the Asian area.

Markets included are: ASX, HSI, SET100, NIK-225, KOSPI, SENSEX

They are not updated that regularly, as mentioned i don't offer a service for updating these markets on a regular basis (there does not appear to be enough interest), they are generally for swing traders as most of my clients are from the US and European countries so i focus on those markets from the US and Europe.

But i do occasional requests on stocks or other markets if a member requests it.

Click here: http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/forum/59-asian-australian-stock-markets/


Any questions you can contact me via Twitter or email to: enquires@wavepatterntraders.com 

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASX

I took a hard look at this over the weekend, although its not the best of counts, the advance i initially thought would prove corrective from the June lows has IMO turned into a 5 wave advance

That idea comes from the potential 5 wave move on the US markets from the same June lows, those that trade the ASX know to well it follows the US markets

And whilst there are elements that are not exactly 'to the book", in the real world we have to make decisions based on what we have in front of us

Strict Elliotticans will say the move is wrong, but then i live in the real world where we dont have perfect 5 wave moves all the time, the overall look counts fine for a 5 wave impulse wave.

Traders trade, book Elliotticians make pretty pictures, thats the big difference

In FX we use what we got as Elliott Wave is about the skills of the user, the trend is up, but it counts near to a potential 5 wave move from the June lows, and using the price and pattern on the US markets suggest that the impulse idea is the correct idea, even though its not perfect

So we should be in the last stages now of wave C for a possible flat pattern from the Oct 2011 lows

Targets are sitting just above, between 4520-70, so a bit higher in the US markets could align nicely with new yearly highs on the ASX and the SPX

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASX

Is this wave [iv]?, and setting up for a move lower in wave [v] from 4448, its been a great move for those that followed it off the ED reversal , but sheesh its been aggressive to say the least

I still expect to see 3800 (daily wave count) tested or lower. Until i see something to invalidate this idea i will stick with it, we should see sub 4000 tested to end wave [v]

Friday, May 11, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASX 200

A quick update, i suspect this is signaling a small bounce, at least to 4320 is the ideal target, but it could be weak

With some other markets suggests a bounce from the trends we have seen in risk markets over the past 2 weeks, we can potentially see a relief bounce to correct this decline

Tuesday, May 8, 2012


If the ASX200 is sending out a message, it suggests that the the AUDUSD is likely on its way lower, anything to do with Australia appears to be having issues

I have not checked the major mining stocks, but i suspect they are in down trends, as the ASX200 has been weak and a poor bounce from the 2011 lows

Sunday, April 29, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASX 200

There could be a great trade setting up on this market if you have access to it, the advance is typical of a corrective move seen over the past few months

Generally you see a strong move higher after an initial heavy decline, then a correction and the next move is weak as it simply shows that buyers have not forget about the previous decline and not interested in buying

Presently you have a wedge, which looks like an ending diagonal, so the expected move is a strong push lower back under 3800 as this current move seen over the past few months i suspect is coming to an end

Look at the angle to confirm the buying strength, notice how weak it is compared to the initial strong thrust higher

The thrust higher is the shorts covering their trades, then a pullback then we see weak Bulls trying to push it higher

A great example of a corrective move recently seen was on the CAC, a initial strong push higher, then a correction and a move against above the previous higher, but it lacked the strength to continue higher, thus it "fell apart"

Friday, February 3, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ASX 200

The Australian markets have been suggesting a potential triangle, which overall is not Bullish imo, so if the wave E of a suspected wave [X] is in place then this should be about to setup to thrust lower and head towards 3800 for a retest

Its possible that the triangle can morph and we maybe still in wave C, but the sideways nature of the price action over the past 6 months suggests a large triangle and once done we should reverse lower

When price action is like this, it does make the Elliott Wave count a bit tricky and it comes from personal experience that time is the best friend you have when price action is sideways and most times it suggests a triangle formation or some variation of a triangle

Overall price action does not support an aggressive rally higher, i would lays odds say more see 3800 than 4800

But as with everything stops are there for a reason and this has a built in stops currently that is at the area marked with a red line