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Showing posts with label AUD/USD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AUD/USD. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDUSD

I suspect this is still inside a 4th wave labelled as wave [iv] of A, staying under 0.9607 suggests a move towards 0.9400, which would then complete a 5 wave decline from 0.9757 and set up for bounce higher in what i suspect will be wave B of [B].

A move above 0.9607 negates the short term idea, that this is still inside wave [iv].

Ideally it stays inside this smaller triangle idea, but under 0.9550 offers a setup to sell, stops 0.9607

Friday, November 1, 2013

Before & After AUDUSD

Another great decline that some members rode down.

Appears to have a bit more downside left 1st before a decent bounce.

Still think we are not worth $30 a month??

Sunday, June 23, 2013

Elliott wave Analysis of AUDUSD

From the high made in April 2013 there still appears to be a 5 wave looking decline

In a trending move a 5 wave sequence suggests to Elliotticians that the trend is mature and a correction is shortly due, although there are far more bearish alternatives, but such an event is rare and only akin to an event like 2008.

So unless there is a full blown crash setting up i suggest that traders that have been short this pair take some precautions as this pair could easily see a bounce to 0.9800-1.000.

I posted an idea i have been working on StockTwits http://stocktwits.com/message/13416574 (now you can see the benefits of following me on StockTwits)

It appears we have a 5 wave decline close to completing for wave A, although at the time i thought 0.9600 as a comfortable target, 0.9200 is a bit more than i figured but the markets do what they do and we simply follow.

There are 2 ways a 5 wave decline can be counted

So if a 5 wave decline is ending for wave A, then i would expect wave B to correct a good portion of wave A.

The trade to sell was back at 1.0200 once it broke down, the risk to continue selling is that you get trapped in a wave B short squeeze to the 0.9800 area

You can see the multiple divergences on the RSI, that's indicative of a potential 5th wave ending

So a minor new low needs watching and aggressive bullish traders can look for some evidence of a reversal higher, as i strongly suspect any squeeze that gets going to the upside will be fast and surprise the "late to the party shorts"

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDUSD

Does this look familiar?

The insert has been taken from Frost & Prechters book

It appears the AUDUSD is setting up for a potential reversal as the recent price action is forming a potential wedge, which as the insert shows, should see a reversal to the upside

There is a risk point to the pattern as wave 5 of the ending diagonal can not be longer than wave 3, as the pattern is a contracting wedge, so the moves get smaller and the market is getting compressed and likely to break to the upside

Of course nothing is a guarantee in the market, but this is where knowing the risk control point can offer us a low risk trade

The risk point to the pattern is at 1.0132, thats the stop for the trade, if you look carefully you can see the positive divergence on the RSI, thats a good sign for the pattern and is confirming the loss of momentum

Now i want to show the range that this pair is trading, notice that this is coming into strong support at the 1.0200 area, this is simply in a 400 pip range, so if a stop is placed at 1.0131, the risk from here is around 70 pips at current levels.

If we can get a bit lower from Sunday, we could limit the risk even more, but i want to see this stay in the context of the wedge formation, NOT an impulsive breakdown, that is wrong for the pattern

Coming into a strong area of support offers us some more information that can help the setup and a potential buy side trade early next week

The target initially is around the 1.0400 area, but based on any upside move should help decide if a stronger upside move is possible

But i would be happy with risking 60 pips or so for 180-200 pips

Wouldn't you??

Good luck!!!

PS-  Do you notice how i am posting the setup BEFORE the move? I believe in full transparency, members see the bad trades as well as the good ones, most Elliott Wave services only show you the AFTER shots, so they are "selective" with the marketing of their services.

I don't think that is the right way, even if you are not a member but read my work, this way you can share the benefit's of my work, although i wont be updating this chart on the blog, you have a trade and you know the risk point

Only members will see the updates

You wont find many other services like us, open and transparent, warts and all, we trade the ideas we post in the forum, so we got "skin in the game"

I will very likely be trading this in my personal account as a swing trade, so members will be able to trade this along side with me

Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDUSD

Following on from my last update of AUDUSD, this pair has reversed nicely and nearly 200 pips from our 1.0550 target, this has been a great trade for members and a nice clear decline which is clearly impulsive looking.

We had a timing for a high on the 14th Dec, the high was on the 13th, so only a few hours out, but i can live with that, i think this pair has further to go as the decline does look bearish.


Post taken from the AUDUSD forum

I have adjusted the decline to reflect the weakness, as the RSI and the actual structure suggest its actually likely ending a small "3rd of 3rd" so small bounces are expected and then further downside, as it don't appear to be ending a 5 wave decline from 1.0586 as i initially thought, it looks more bearish

The alternative in blue suggests a 5 wave decline completed, but the RSI suggests its really only just ending the middle 3rd wave section of a 3rd wave hence the market should see weak bounces under 1.0450 then move lower

So look to sell weakness under 1.0450, if we see a strong move i will adjust as necessary but i think this is the better wave count to reflect price and what we are actually seeing

The 200DMA sits at the 1.0300 so watch that area for support should we see further weakness

Friday, December 21, 2012

Time to get out? (ASX)

With potential patterns on all 3 markets, AUDUSD, HG (Copper) and ASX now met their objectives, we are seeing a reversal in AUDUSD and Copper, the ASX is a little behind the curve, but you can see how the AUDUSD and HG markets tend to give a little warning 1st

So the question is:

Q: Is now the time to get out of Australian stocks?

A: I think the bulls need to think about taking some $$ of the table, having hit my 4650 target, i would be a seller if i owned Australian stocks and take the $$$ and go and enjoy the New Year and Christmas time without any stress

If the ideas change you can always get back in, but you cant get your $$ back if you see a hard sell off and you are not prepared.

The ASX is getting ahead of itself and the patterns from the 2011 lows in many Asian markets are suggesting a setup to reverse, particularly the Hang Seng (HSI), which has a high correlation with the ASX, as does Copper.

The don't ring the bell at the top, but clues from other markets could be suggesting the time has come to take profits and be cautious.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDUSD

This pair has been a tough pair to track let alone trade, its a clear corrective advance since Oct, but like most forms of corrective move, they have a habit of morphing and making our lives tough

However it finally appears that we have met its object at 1.0550

Its not been easy and i kinda wished i could of just ignored the last 6 weeks or so and fast forward to today ;-)

But now that we have arrived, it looks like we could be within the finish fine

We have a price and timing setting up, with the prior fractals of the last set of waves hit, we also have a timing setting up for the 14th, so as price and time come into a confluence we should be close to a reversal that should take this pair a lot lower

So from 1.0550-600 i am actively looking for a top and strong reversal

Previous posts:



Conservative traders can wait for a strong break under 1.0450 to help confirm a reversal

Aggressive traders can look for a strong break under 1.0500

Thursday, December 6, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDUSD

Post taken from the forum

The more this keeps failing to break down the more i think this is still inside wave [b] of the larger wave [y], so whilst it might come back and test 1.0390-80 to end wave [b], there is an option of a potential small [b] wave triangle

If this remains sideways and we dont see a strong breakdown, whilst it is above 1.0336 i strongly favor the market has unfinished business with 1.0550

The smaller [b] wave triangle is valid above 1.0392

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDUSD

I am currently working 2 ideas from the 1.0148 lows

Idea 1 - Suggests finally a triple zigzag is completed and now a strong reversal lower under 1.0148 expected, so a strong break of 1.0400 is the 1st clue

Having hit the target band at 1.0480-500 we have seen a decent decline but the bears need to see a strong break and follow through

Idea 2 - A 3 wave decline from 1.0488 that holds above 1.0366 would setup for a move towards 1.0550

One thing that i am confident in, is that the advance from 1.0148 is some of the most corrective looking wave structure i have ever had to count, its caused me no end of issues, but i feel that i have 2 working ideas and confident 1 will play out

If your interested in following this pair and the other forex pairs i follow sign up for a free trial, you have 4 weeks to decide if the site is right for you, if you find no value in my work then simply ask for a full refund inside the 1st month, no questions asked

For $30 a month, its probably the best $30 you will ever spend for quality analysis from a seasoned Elliottician

Monday, October 1, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

I was originally working 2 ideas, and initially thought the decline would be a small 4th wave pull back, but due to the time aspect, i suspect this is a larger wave [iv] and target the 38.2% fibbo retrace of wave [iii] around 12775

The June highs come in at around 12745, there is the room to push lower if needed, although the decline from the high on wave ( what i suspect is wave [iii]) appears to be corrective looking and a 38.2% retracement of wave [iii] is a normal correction for wave [iv]

So any small bounce that fails under 129 should lead to a new low, a strong bid above 12959 suggests the low is in and a move to 13250 is suggested

If we are working a triple ZZ in EURUSD it seems likely that we will see a reversal in both AUDUSD and 6C (aka USDCAD in reverse), so its important to be watching all 3 markets as i suspect if the EURUSD reverses higher it will see a risk on bid higher, and i suspect US stocks will get a bid as well

So even e-mini traders should be watching the EURUSD pair from here

Saturday, September 1, 2012

Divergences Forex Markets

The divergences still appear to be mounting, (they can of course reverse).

In this market there is a series of forex pairs that i personally follow to keep looking for ideas on the direction of the trend in risk markets etc.

Now every market should be viewed on its on merits, but there are times that you can use a combination of similar markets to look for important clues to a trend reversal

Back at the March 2012 highs i started to notice the forex risk pairs NZDUSD and AUDUSD bleed lower, then slowing the AUDJPY followed, and the last to reverse was the 6C aka CADUSD (USDCAD in reverse)

I could not understand why US stocks had not puked and followed AUDUSD, AUDJPY, NZDUSD and the European markets lower (all those markets were in sell mode)

But the clue finally came from the USDCAD aka 6C in reversal, and that was the link as to why the US markets held up into the May 2012 highs

The same appears to be happening again and that 6C has gone it alone and is supporting US stocks, so when the USDCAD/6C markets reverse, its my belief that you will see a reversal in the US stock markets

So i suggests those that are looking for a reversal in US stocks, is to watch the patterns and price evidence on USDCAD/6C

Don't take my word for it, see for yourself (or you can sign up and follow my work)

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDUSD

Simple set up before and after shots.

We knew where the risk was, the result speaks for itself

"This pair has not confirmed the move in US stocks, and it looks like a 3 wave advance, and a sharp decline from 0.9933 and currently a 3 wave bounce to the 618 retrace from 0.9933

So we can setup now for a strong break lower, risk is to 0.9933 the prior highs"

Tuesday, May 8, 2012


If the ASX200 is sending out a message, it suggests that the the AUDUSD is likely on its way lower, anything to do with Australia appears to be having issues

I have not checked the major mining stocks, but i suspect they are in down trends, as the ASX200 has been weak and a poor bounce from the 2011 lows

Saturday, April 21, 2012


The correlation between Oil and AUDUSD is still strong and i dont think you are going to see a strong move lower in risk markets whilst these 2 markets are firm.

The Bulls in both markets are defending key areas:

AUDUSD - 1.0300

Oil (crude) - $102

Each time the bears have tried to take out those areas the markets have held firm, thats a positive for the bulls in risk and the bears need to respect that, dips are buying opportunities against the lows made on 11/04

But i prefer to buy the dips around $102 on Oil and $1.0300 on AUDUSD, as if you are going to see a "full on" risk sell off, those areas imo wont hold, but the declines in most risk markets are corrective atm and support the idea of looking higher in "some" not all but "some" markets

I suspect we are going to see other markets peel away, but a select few are still holding firm, noticeably these 2 markets

Thursday, March 15, 2012


If you have been watching the markets for any length of time, you will note the high correlation between certain high yielding FX pairs, 2 such example's are AUD/USD and NZD/USD

Although personally i place far more importance on the AUD/USD pair

You can see the huge divergence between the 2 markets, in fact the ONLY time i see this sort of spread is when there is a big move

Most times its the FX markets that tell the truth, so that indicates that the move in stocks is a bluff

Now that is never any reason to follow anyone analysis just because i say its so, check out the times the spread between the 2 markets have widened and the subsequent result

There is an arbitrage here, either the ES is about to reverse and catch up with the AUD/USD pair


The AUD/USD pair is about to play catch up and push higher in what i would suspect is a move that sends stocks to the Oct 2007 highs and AUD/USD towards 112+ in what would be a new round of risk asset buying.

Sooner or later this disparity between these markets will get resolved, the trader that can spot the edge and get the trade right will make some impressive gains

So either buy AUD/USD to play catch up with the ES


Sell the ES to play catch up with the AUD/USD

Monday, February 6, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUD/USD

Well we have finally arrived at my target of 1.0760-1.0800 all that is required is for evidence of a reversal, if you look closer you can see a potential smaller ED which fits in with my short term time frame Elliott Wave count (not shown)

Big area here for a trade which i suspect will be a trend setting move

Bears step up here and smash this lower or they are in trouble

The idea of a high also aligns with a high in AUD/CAD as i have posted a few days back

A strong reversal from the Bears is needed, as we come back to this obvious resistance area, and then a strong reversal back under the 200DMA (currently 1.0400)

If we don't see a reversal and its partner the USD/CAD pair continues to puke lower, that is sending out a "risk on" message

You DON'T want to be short stocks or risk markets such as NZD/USD AUD/USD and stocks if that happens

Watch USD/CAD and AUD/USD they will help confirm if this is the "real deal" of not or if a suspected Bull trap (which is the idea i am working)

1st major clue for the Bears is loss of the mid line then the lower trend line support then finally the 200DMA