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Showing posts with label DOW. Show all posts
Showing posts with label DOW. Show all posts

Thursday, May 1, 2014

Elliott wave Analysis of Dow Industrials via DIA

The trend from Oct 2011 is in its final stages, it appears wave [5] could be a possible ending diagonal so we are monitoring a potential bearish wedge shape, the RSI appears to be confirming the advance being a 5th wave terminating rally.

Once completed we are looking for opportunities to sell the DOW either by selling the market directing via the YM (e-mini futures) or potentially buying puts.

A great opportunity i suspect is close by and although i am initially targeting the 145 area, the potential for much more downside could suggest targets well under 130-120.

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Market Report: Dow Industrials Top in Place?

To answer that question truthfully, its way too early to confirm the answer to that question. I have posted previously there is still a bullish wave count that suggests a possible move to 14000 before it moves higher and  targets 17000 - 19000, but to those traders that are flexible and can trade both sides of the trend there is plenty of $$$ to be made for those that can find the right set ups.

My last few articles have been prepping readers for a potential setup for a large decline, so far its not disappointed, many members caught a large percentage of the decline, although we were watching a couple of ideas this past week that suggested a rally was due and after 2 attempts we caught the lows last week, so traders made $$$ from the upside as well

Traders that are flexible and have the right setups are making serious $$$, as the swings we have seen recently are a traders best friend, although you still need to find the right setup.

Anyhow back to the setup in hand.

If you have not been involved on the short side like some members have, then you may have another chance later, but short term this appears to be inside an upwards correction to correct the decline

From 16523 it appears to be a 5 wave decline, so I suspect we can see a large bounce to correct the decline, a 3 wave bounce that remains under 16523 is a setup to sell, so readers that are interested in looking to sell this market need to wait for the market to set itself up.

Whilst its never a foregone conclusion that we are going to see more downside, if the market has put some sort of peak, then I still think we at least see a move back to 14000 or lower.

So if the idea shown sets up, you have a low risk setup to sell, limited risk with a potential target towards 14000.

If the idea is wrong then its a small loss and live to fight another day, but the key to this idea is to see a 3 wave bounce NOT a strong impulsive move that going crazy to the upside, there is a clear setup we are looking for.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead

Monday, January 6, 2014

Market Report: US Stock Markets Still Setting Up


Short term

We went into this week looking for a short term top for wave [iii], the late day spike on New Year's eve appeared to give us the small spike from a small triangle, so it set up for a reversal this past week for wave [iv]. My preferred idea is that this is still in wave [iv] and a new high is still to come, although there is an alternative count that suggests the peak is in place for wave [v] of 5, however I would need to see a strong decline under 16200 to suggest a reversal.

So going into next week I am still looking a bit lower for wave [iv], where we will look to get long for a move higher once the market meets our targets.

YM Before Chart
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YM After Chart
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We are still targeting the 16300 area for wave [iv], so a bit a more downside is ideally seen early next week, then setup for a move higher for wave [v]. Although I am still looking for a major peak, I would prefer to see a minor new all time high first before setting up for a large decline.

Long term

I am still working 2 ideas from the March 2009 lows, both ideas suggest a short term top should be close and set up for a large move lower towards to at least 14000-14200. The bullish idea shown in blue suggests a pullback for a large 4th wave, the bearish idea suggests the move from the March 2009 lows is coming to an end, although at wavepatterntraders we focus on actually trading to make $$$ not hero calls, whilst I am a fan of having some long term plans, the real trading is still done on 60 and 240 min charts.

YM Long Term Chart
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In my last article I wrote about the potential for the JPY carry trade to unwind. The past week we saw some weak price action on the JPY pairs, if a peak is in place on Japanese stocks and the JPY pairs then I suspect that is going weigh heavily on US stocks. So it's important to watch the Japanese markets over the coming days & weeks.

This past week we finally saw some decent moves in the markets, if our ideas work out the way we want things are just getting started and a significant move lower is expected.

The moves we saw on US markets, EURJPY, GBPJPY and USDJPY are nothing compared to what I am expecting over the next few months, I am looking for some huge moves in the markets, exactly the conditions traders need to make $$.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Market Report: A Good Start But More Needed

In my article 2 weeks ago, I was looking for a top in the US stock markets. Since that article we have a seen a decent reversal and one that potentially has confirmed a peak is in place, although technically speaking we don't yet have a 5 wave decline in place from the all time highs, but the potential for such an important clue (important to Elliotticians) is serious enough to consider the US markets could well have put in an important peak.


We went into the week after that last article with a potential setup for a reversal, although I did not post this chart in that article, it was one of the clues I mentioned that suggested a peak was close by.

Dow Jones Chart
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This chart was on Fridays close being the 2nd of August. The DOW made an all time high, if you remember back 2 weeks ago, the world was all giddy with delight about the DOW making record highs.

However I was not impressed, in fact I was more bearish than I have been of late, seeing such a pattern suggested we needed to be looking for a reversal, as I spoke about in that article 2 weeks ago.

I was working a pattern Elliotticians call an ending diagonal, and with the new spike high we had enough price action to consider a potential top in place and that set the tone for a reversal on Monday, some members went into the weekend short, although we never had any confirmation of a reversal signal until it dropped under our key support zone we was watching, but based on the larger pattern as well as this short term chart, it made sense to be looking for a top, just as most were celebrating the DOW making a new all time high.

Kind of ironic, the majority of the trading community bullish and we were mega bearish, but I find my best ideas come from fading the crowd, especially when I see a set up that suggests a reversal, I have done that at tops and bottoms many times over the years.

The setup on the DOW was too good of a setup not to recommend to members to look at ways to get short the US markets.

Fast forward and that chart looks like this.

Dow Jones Chart 2
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As I wrote earlier, we don't yet have a 5 wave advance in place, but the potential for one is there, I suspect a smaller wave [iii] is close to ending, so a small bounce in wave [iv] to around 15200 could be seen Monday/Tuesday before heading lower in wave [v], that would then complete a 5 wave decline from the all time highs.

I am working 2 ideas on the daily time frame, and depending on the reaction around 14000-14500 will suggest if the market needs to come back and retest the all time highs and print a move to 15700, or the top is in and we just witnessed a major high in place.

However I am not looking that far ahead as I still need to see a small 5 wave decline from the all time highs to have some confidence of a peak in place.

Should the market decide to adopt a different script, we will of course have to adjust our ideas, but until the market negates the ideas I will stick with what is working.

I use Elliott Wave to look for ideas to help members make $$$, we trade 1st count 2nd, we are more interested in making $$$ not looking for the "hero" call.


We went into the week looking for a peak and a breakdown in the NDX although the QQQs had started to show more strength than the other markets, I noticed the DOW was the weaker market and the SPX was not much better, but the NDX was still firm, which was causing me some issues, and at one stage I was considering the DOW and SPX potentially making a new all time highs, however like all good set ups, things eventually cleared us for us, and the NDX showed its hand.

NDX/QQQ Chart 1
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I posted this idea for members in the week, to non Elliotticians it probably don't mean a lot, but to those of us that study Elliott Wave it was a massive clue for us, and one that finally had us looking for a peak.

As the NDX made a new yearly high and multi-year high, the media was again celebrating this fact, but we on the other hand were looking at something totally different, we were getting bearish just as most were bullish.

The pattern is a triangle, and I was looking for a "thrust higher", once that "thrust" was in place, I was confident we would see a reversal. It could not have worked out better.

NDX/QQQ Chart 2
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With the SPX and DOW failing to make the new highs, it set the stage for a reversal in all the US Stock markets.

Again if the NDX/QQQs have put in an important high, we need to see a 5 wave decline, it's not completed a 5 wave decline yet, but the potential like the SPX and DOW is enough to take it seriously if we do see more downside.

The weekly chart can suggest something really bearish has just finished, although that is the furthest thing from my mind at the moment. I am more interested in trying to confirm a 5 wave decline in the US markets.


SPY Chart 1
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I posted this chart to my Stock Twits account, so it was a freebie for those that follow me, and those that took notice could have traded an nice 30-40 point move on the SPX, even 20 or 30 points is a good move and good $$ if you trade the right set up.

We knew where the idea was wrong and a 3 wave bounce would have offered a setup to sell, with risk defined, there was no second guessing, we had a clear guideline of where the idea was wrong.

Many members made in excess of 25 ES points, at $50 a point that's $1250 a contract, even if you traded puts as some members did, I am sure the gains were more than the monthly fee of $20. Probably even more than the yearly fee.

If things have just got started and my preferred daily idea works out the way I suspect, we can see 1500 on the SPX in no time at all, that's a few points to those that are interested in making $$$.

SPY Chart 2
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The chart of the SPY looks similar to the DOW, so we still need to see a 5 wave decline, but a small bounce for wave [iv], then a new low, will complete a 5 wave move from the all time highs and potentially suggest an important peak is in place.

I will leave it there for this week.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.


Wednesday, August 7, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of DOW

Has the trend reversed??

Its possible to count the end to a 5 wave advance from June 24th. We have a clear RSI divergence, so that's a good start and suggests the last move was a 5th wave.

Further more it looks like the 5th wave could have ended with an ending diagonal, which is a terminal pattern ( bearish wedge).

What we need to see is a small 5 wave decline from 15659, followed by a small 3 wave bounce that remains under 15659, it it gaps down on Wednesday that would be a positive start for the bears.

As of now we don't have enough evidence to suggest a peak in place, but we can speculate on a potential reversal as shown.

We need 5 waves for an impulse wave, once a 5 wave move is complete we can expect a trend reversal.

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of DOW

Post taken from the forum

If Friday ended wave [iii] then we should be spending a bit of time chopping around in a 4th wave and my best guess is a test of the 12800 area, the alternative is that Fridays bounce was part of an on-going 3rd wave and simply a subdivision of a longer 3rd wave, but there is enough gyrations to consider wave [iii] in place and a move back towards 12800.

Fridays bounce is a potential start but not enough to convince me fully yet, if would need to hold in Globex in Sunday/Monday and hold above Fridays low in Globex before I suspect then the US markets head higher.

A strong gap down suggests the alternative in blue and its simply subdividing and still inside a 3rd wave which is a very bearish wave count, so it’s going to come down to the movements in Globex to help confirm negate this idea shown.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of DOW

The advance from the June lows has taken on a slightly different set of waves depending on which market you look at, as the DOW has an overlap on the last series of waves where as the other markets such as the SPX does not possess that overlap (as shown)

Considering that the DOW is the easy market to run higher, i don't think its a bullish sign when you have sloppy price action on the leader of the pack at the highs

The bulls seldom appear to forget this important clue when it comes to be truthful to what is happening in the markets, the DOW is showing some sign of weakness against other markets

Because of the overlap we can label the advance as an ending diagonal (wedge to non Elliotticians) as we have an overlap between waves 1 and 4 which is a requirement for an ending diagonal

If this is the correct interpretation then it should be on the verge of a complete reversal and retrace all of the rally from the June lows

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Market Newsletter (Weekend Edition)

While its free i suggest taking a look at the contents in this weeks newsletter



The trial ends on 29th March 2012

Read the rest here.


Monday, February 13, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of DOW

The same Elliott Wave Count I am working on the SPX is the same on the DOW

So based off the decline and if it holds up above 12300 or not will confirm or negate this idea

The next decline is key to help confirm or negate this idea