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Showing posts with label ES. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ES. Show all posts

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of DAX (short term)

Short term it appears that this is close to ending wave [iii], so a pullback should be close for wave [iv], i am targeting around the 9500-9450 area, although it will be decided on the form of the decline.

Once wave [iv] is in place we should then see a new high for wave [v] where upon a large decline is likely setting up to at least 9000, much more if my primary idea is correct.

The market is so weighted to one side and whilst we have been trading this current move to the upside i will be advising to be looking at long term puts once we can see a 5 wave advance completed from 8985.

I will be getting very aggressively short at the end of a 5 wave move from 8985, although short term i am looking to be buying some short term calls and get long on the end of wave [iv] and trade the 5th wave to new highs.

A strong decline under 9400 starts to be a concern but only if its a strong impulsive decline, then the bulls should most definitely have cause for concern.

The ES is virtually the same idea.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (E-mini)

As long as it continues to move higher traders need to respect it

I have been posting updates quite frequently on Stock Twits, check the ideas here: http://stocktwits.com/Wavepatterntraders

But i figured the juncture where we are at, requires a bit more elaboration, so decided to make a post about it

Currently from 1552ES there is a 3 wave bounce and a measured move targets just over 1660ES, which has been hit

Whereas the bearish idea suggests this is only a 3 wave bounce, for a larger correction (Idea 2)

The more bullish idea i have been tracking is Idea 1 and potentially wave 3 could be counted completed and about to start wave 4 to around 1640ES

If we see a corrective decline that fits the profile of a 4th wave (sloppy and corrective decline) then it will argue for Idea 1

There is a very bullish idea as shown by Idea 3, the key to Idea 3 is staying above the red line (1641.90)

If so then this market is going to go crazy on the upside today and see a large move higher

Idea 2 requires to see a strong reversal back under 1620ES, but a decline that looks heavy under 1630ES is a warning for the bulls

Staying above 1635ES suggests more upside and the trend will continue higher and target new all time highs

Bottom line: Staying above 1635-1640ES keeps the trend looking higher, forget the news, forget the bearish sentiment

Only price rules

I have remained bullish this market, due to the trend simply impulsing higher, until the market confirms a bearish setup, higher prices are expected, but the market is at a point that requires some careful monitoring

Monday, June 3, 2013

USDJPY VS ES (Elliott Wave)

Most traders that are trading the ES and USDJPY markets are probably aware of the correlation between the 2 markets.

However there is a bullish setup, and whilst many are looking at the H&S patterns on both the ES and USDJPY markets.

I would like to bring to your attention a bullish setup which IMO needs respecting, as if the USDJPY is involved in an ED (ending diagonal) and fails to break under 99.59 and the bulls step up and support the 100 area, i suspect it could align with a potential bullish setup on the ES, and a low around the 1620ES is bought in parallel with the JPY pairs moving higher.

The trading world expects a strong breakdown now in US stocks and whilst i wont deny its not a potential bearish setup if the bears see heavy selling today in the European session, but if there is NO follow through to Fridays late day dump in US stocks and we only see a minor new low to around the 1620ES and the ED idea on the USDJPY holds firm.

I would caution the bears that are expecting a strong breakdown, whilst i would prefer to see a strong breakdown in both US stocks and the USDJPY ( as it makes my job easier) i have to respect what i see, as i write this post the potential is there for the bulls to step up a bit lower on both markets.

The way i see it, its up to the bears to deliver and continue lower from Fridays dump in US stocks.

The bears need a confirmation of the JPY pairs to dump to see more downside in US stocks

Failure to break back above 1640ES and 101.25 USDJPY short term keeps the trend looking lower on both markets.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES

There are 2 waves that can be suggested

The idea in blue is the alternative idea and potentially a dip then push to a new high and a strong reversal after completing a 5 wave advance from 1533ES

The preferred idea is in black and its currently in a 3rd of 3rd wave and needs a few more gyrations higher, so could see about 20-30 points

As long as the market stays bid above 1572ES i like the idea of more upside here and traders should remain bullish until we either see a strong break down under 1572ES

Or a 5 wave advance from 1533ES

Traders MUST stay bullish above 1572ES and forget selling this market unless you see a strong breakdown under 1572ES

If you see a choppy decline and holds around 1575-1578ES then i suspect more upside for the idea in black

So based on the next decline will help suggest which path

Dont forget the 10 handle rule

Thursday, March 14, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (short term)

Post taken from ES forum


You could label wave [iv] in place, although its far from what i wanted to see, that's one of the issues of 4th waves, they are nasty waves to trade, and this has been no exception

Corrections in general are a problem, and whilst i wanted to see a bit lower to offer us a buying opportunity, its simply refused to do that, so the setup never really came into focus

The idea in blue is a possibility, but it would need a decent decline today to revive that idea, and the odds based on the reluctance to move lower are poor

I suspect we have virtually no market players before the rollover, so this will probably chop around even more today and Friday for OPEX

When you see a market like this, i STRONGLY suggest moving away and literally just monitor the market, its not worth the time of effort, we don't want to burn ourselves out watching paint dry

Certainly try to avoid 4th waves unless you are a very experienced trader/Elliottician , but even i have got bored of this market, i will wait until the end of a 5 wave move to sell it aggressively

This is a great opportunity to move to other ideas and setups whilst it finishes off its pattern

With the DAX and EURSTOXX50 looking like they need a move higher in wave [v] for their respective patterns, this sure looks like its in wave [v] now

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (short term) & DAX

The last few sessions have created some issues for traders, not only is it contract rollover week, we have diminishing volumes, this is normal before a new contract, and i have found over the years some big moves tend to happen just after the new contract is fully in place, although most traders have moved into the M contract now (June)

From last Fridays decline we have seen a nasty series of chop, and its not clear how this is shaping up, my initial reaction is a triangle, but that still lacks structure and wave [c] needs to come back to around the 1540ES area

If i had my way we would test1535ES, but this market is not exactly respecting what i am saying atm

It was working great, then me and the market had a fall out, errr whatever the reason we don't have a clear view just yet

I suspect its still working wave [iv], as when we look at the DAX we have a similar idea there, and its declined in a 3 wave move, so OK for a 4th wave pullback, as i don't have a breakdown confirmation i consider the market incomplete from the 26/27th Feb lows

We should still see a new high for a 5th wave in both the ES and DAX. Unless i see a breakdown under 1520ES, i still suspect this is a 4th wave in progress

The DAX would need a strong breakdown under 7830 to be a concern for the bulls

Friday, March 8, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (short term)

Copied from ES forum


Because of the sideways junk, i am still not sure we are finishing off wave [iii], or just starting wave [iv] towards 1530ES

With the NFP out later, we could see it go both ways, but i think it still would see a pullback

If it spikes high it can end wave [iii], then see traders sell the spike for a move back to 1530ES

If wave [iii] is already in place, then we should see a spike lower from the NFP then traders should look to buy any dip above 1524ES for a move towards 1550-60+ in wave [v]

Only a severe breakdown under 1524ES would negate this idea

Until this moves away for this narrow range i wont have a strong clue to which idea, the NFP should help confirm where we are

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (short term)

Copied from ES forum


A small decline to around 1532-1528 ES should setup another opportunity to add to longs or buy the dip, this is working out very well, so for now i don't have any reason to change the idea

We want to see a choppy decline, when i look at the European markets such as the DAX and EURSTOXX they suggests a small dip needed as well

Unless i see a strong breakdown under 1420, i am looking higher as i don't have any completed pattern from 1482ES

A market that keeps impulsing higher and correcting with choppy price action is a market that wants to go higher, we have no impulsive downside to be cautious about, the bulls are in FULL control atm.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (short term)

Copied from ES forum


We can move key support now to 1516ES, as if this is in a 3rd wave then we should power higher in the European session and see a strong move from the European markets and gap up today on US stocks

An alternative idea shown in blue suggests a move back to 1497ES, although i would need to see a move under 1516ES before i would even consider that idea

Its hit the 1x1, so we need to be careful this is not a 3 wave advance from 1499ES, hence the warning and caution about a possible [b] wave, so if you are long, respect any strong breakdown under 1516ES

If we so see a breakdown, we can simply evaluate the markets after a move under 1516ES and see how it sets up, but for now, the bulls have the edge and a gap up here and strong European session will really punish the shorts that have not covered and they will get run over today if a 3rd wave

As i pointed out in the SPX forum, the FTSE is the most clear idea i see on the major stock markets and IMO is a clear clue and suggests more upside, which is why i am remaining bullish until it looks completed, or i see a severe break down

Monday, March 4, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (short term)

With a clear 5 wave advance from the 1482ES lows the bulls are firmly in control above that area, although there is a couple of ways you can count this move

The preferred idea is in place and comes back to test the 1507ES area for a small expanded flat for wave [ii]

A strong break under 1505ES, likely suggests a move to 1495ES, although the preferred idea is valid above 1499ES, but in these sort of situations i like to "Elliott hedge"

What that basically means, because i am unsure of which idea, i will trade them both, so i will enter positions at 1507ES (25% of normal size positions)

The enter at 1492-3ES (extra 25%)

Stops need to be at 1482ES, i will add if the trade reverses to the upside and i am confident a low is in place

But the setup on both ideas remains valid as long as the bulls hold above 1482ES

With the decline from 1524ES looking corrective and in 3 waves, the odds favor the bulls, if the current decline remains as a corrective move, although i cant rule out a test of 1495-90ES

Targeting above 1550ES

Thursday, February 28, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (short term)

Copied from short term ES forum


I suspect wave [iii] is in place and a pullback for wave [iv] should be close if not already started, so a move towards 1510-1512ES is the target, with lower targets at 1508ES

So watch for support around 1510-1512, that should setup for a move higher towards 1530ES

A strong breakdown under 1502ES is a warning for the bulls as its far deeper than i would expect for a 4th wave

Monday, February 25, 2013

Market Report: It Has Started

Well not quite, but it's very possible now a high is in place. In last week's I was looking for a push higher to test the prior highs. We have been tracking an ending diagonal for the past few weeks, only the trouble with that pattern is they have a tendency to morph and waste time.

Last week

SPX Chart
Larger Image

It's the time wasting as it forms the wedge shape that frustrates traders, until a point it breaks hard and almost all traders are not aware what has happened.
When markets are like that I strongly encourage members to look at other markets, with over 25 markets
that we follow a decent idea is never far away.

SPX Chart
Larger Image

Well we finally got what appears to be the break we were expecting, and we even followed it lower to cover our shorts on the end of a 5 wave move.

If the bounce remains under the prior swing high at 1531SPX, we are looking to put shorts back on for what I expect will be a strong breakdown towards 1450SPX.

With our risk known, it offers a higher reward for a small risk, exactly the sort of trades that I encourage members to take, I think if the market fails to see a strong break above 1520SPX, it should setup for a decent move lower, having put in a 5 wave decline it's a strong start that a peak is in place.
As always we use stops and know our risk before we put the trade on.


As mentioned above, some members trade the ES, so we have almost 24hr coverage of the markets. If members want an update as to the ideas, they can come into the chat room and ask questions or see the latest ideas in the forums. With the extensive range we trade there is always a market for everyone.
Some members, including myself were short the ES well before the move as we knew the risk to the idea was just under 1540SPX, so using the ideas on the SPX for risk control on the ES.
I was personally short from 1517-20ES as suggested in our swing trades service, so members had the ability to follow my personal trades.

Read the rest here:  http://www.safehaven.com/article/28924/market-report-it-has-started

Sunday, October 28, 2012

Market Report: A Week of Mixed Emotions

We went in Monday looking for a low on US stocks as I was seeing setups to suggest getting long risk markets and particularly we wanted to get long US stocks. Having hit our 1420-1416ES target on ES, I personally bought the 1418ES area, but anywhere around the 4 handle target was the expected reversal zone, we were then pleasantly rewarded with a strong bounce into the close. 1416ES was a gap down Sunday Globex low and it had been a target for a while as the cash markets like to test Globex lows in the pit session hours.

Looking for 1416-1420 ES Test

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES

Currently i suspect this is close to the wave [iii] peak, so a 4th wave pullback should be seen, we can see the same setup on EURUSD, and EURJPY, so a pullback today should be close, i thought we might see some weakness overnight and into the European session, but its probably going to come from the US session

I am looking for around 1445-47ES as a target for wave [iv], then rally to new highs in wave [v]

Only a seriously strong puke in the other markets such as EURUSD and EURPY would i be concerned if this dumped hard under 1440ES but if we see a choppy decline, that will likely support the idea of a 4th wave pullback

I wrote this on Oct 16th

"This is set up to rally big time if it can get over 1435ES and force the bears to cover shorts, we can move risk control to 1430ES above there sets up a 3rd wave to the upside"

Indeed it followed the script nicely much to the dismay from the bears, if the bears had bothered to do some research they would have seen many markets all pointing to the same thing.

It was not that hard of a call, it was a small risk set up

Sunday, October 7, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURSD

Following on from my last post on this pair, it appears to be working well, although there is a potential triangle that traders need to be careful above should this pair see a strong break under 12960

But above 12802 the market is bullish, and above 12960 the market is very bullish, but we wont really know until we see some price action on Sunday/Monday

The one issue is that some of the European and US stock markets really could do with a move lower and that may support a bit of "risk off" selling and a move higher in the US$ hence the triangle idea could come into play, although recently we have seen the EURUSD hold its ground even when we have seen a push lower in stocks, but in general the ES and EURUSD are moving in sync

For now lets use 12960 for guidance

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (e-mini S&P)

Surprising what you can do when you come up with a solid plan, as many probably would have been looking to sell the lows after the downside we saw yesterday, as well as the AAPL news, the setup actually called for a reversal and to burn the shorts that came late to the party

We had a target of 1319ES and 1.0220 on the USDCAD, that's where we fancied the reversal to come from, hence why i was pretty vocal about getting out of shorts as i posted on the twitter stream, and members knew that we should be taking the $$$ as a bounce was highly likely setting up

The low on ES was 1321.5 the USDCAD high was 1.0230

The bears have found out, when you get too bearish at the bottom of a 5 wave move it tends to bite you back as we are seeing today in the European session, that's near 18 handles or pain if you sold the AAPL bad news trap

Works virtually every time

Decide if you want to follow the herd or follow what price is doing.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

6C Futures (aka CADUSD) and ES

It looks like we have a nice arbitrage going on here, virtually every time i see the spread widening out, the ES gets a head of itself

So at some stage these markets will need to close the gap. That means the ES pukes or the 6C contract lifts higher (USDCAD pukes)

But the advance appears to be a corrective move so strongly favors a reversal in both markets, so the trade could be to sell the ES, as that has the most to gain.

The wild card is the FOMC later, so its not a great choice of set up to trade before the release of the statement, but still if no QE, my guess based on the idea is the lot simply comes right back off

Support on USDCAD 1.0150

Saturday, June 9, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of 6C Futures

Following on from my last post


It did indeed push to a 5th wave low and a reversal as expected, and it appears to be involved in some sort of correction to correct the move from the May 1st period, as i posted before the same 5 wave move is seen on many of the US$ crosses such as GBPUSD,EURUSD and even USDCHF, so virtually all the majors that are linked with the DX are in a correction mode.

Now corrections have a nasty habit of making life tough for traders, so it comes down to experience as there are many forms this can take, but if you overlay the 6C chart with the ES you can clearly see how using the 6C pair is a useful tool for US stock markets aka the ES e-mini contract

So with a 5 wave decline in US stock markets as well as the 6C contract the odds say that we are involved in a correction now in both US stocks as well as USDCAD aka 6C

6C = USDCAD inverted

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (e-mini S&P)

The last few days have seen some nasty whipsaw, and i still suspect its an ABC advance, as what you have seen is a strong wave A, then a deep wave B, followed by a wave [c] only this is what we call an ending diagonal (ED), then whipsaw is classic of that pattern, as its created a number of moves to cause trouble for both Bears and Bulls a like

But if this is complete we should be ready to puke now

Under 1325 then 1317ES are the 1st and 2nd clues

Resistance at 1330ES

Thats some nasty set of waves, but look carefully you can see its only just over its measured move target

So as it stands, it looks like a simple ABC advance

Thursday, March 15, 2012


If you have been watching the markets for any length of time, you will note the high correlation between certain high yielding FX pairs, 2 such example's are AUD/USD and NZD/USD

Although personally i place far more importance on the AUD/USD pair

You can see the huge divergence between the 2 markets, in fact the ONLY time i see this sort of spread is when there is a big move

Most times its the FX markets that tell the truth, so that indicates that the move in stocks is a bluff

Now that is never any reason to follow anyone analysis just because i say its so, check out the times the spread between the 2 markets have widened and the subsequent result

There is an arbitrage here, either the ES is about to reverse and catch up with the AUD/USD pair


The AUD/USD pair is about to play catch up and push higher in what i would suspect is a move that sends stocks to the Oct 2007 highs and AUD/USD towards 112+ in what would be a new round of risk asset buying.

Sooner or later this disparity between these markets will get resolved, the trader that can spot the edge and get the trade right will make some impressive gains

So either buy AUD/USD to play catch up with the ES


Sell the ES to play catch up with the AUD/USD