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Showing posts with label EUR/AUD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EUR/AUD. Show all posts

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURAUD

Looking at the long term charts of this pair, it potentially suggests a major low in place as i can count a large degree 5 wave move from the 2008 highs

Current price action is likely to decline towards 121-121.40 (thats the target) before wave [2] is in place

So short term/medium i am bearish but actually long term bullish on this pair

Past week price action

We went into this week with 2 ideas i  could not be sure which idea was setting up, but with some of the other EUR crosses looking like tops (EURCAD was a gem) i fancied a strong break lower

But i wanted to see a reaction from the 12550 area

Well we pushed right against that level in the week, but a failure was a bad sign for the bulls

By Wednesday we had a great low risk setup to sell against 12520 before the ECB, i personally took this trade, well why wouldn't i it was a great idea with low risk :-) just the way i like them

With a little help from the ECB price took out our key 124 area, that confirmed the idea and further supported that the recent advance was a corrective move so a strong sign that a move to 121 is needed to finish wave [2]

Staying under 124 is bearish sign and further supports our ideas

Saturday, November 10, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/AUD

Taken from the forum:

With the breakdown of this market, the initial ABC decline from 12824 never happen as i expected, and the continual move lower, is suggesting a much more aggressive bearish stance on this pair

With price moving lower we have seen the RSI confirming the move, that tends to suggest a 3rd wave and generally the "middle portion" of the 3rd wave, what Elliotticians call a "3rd of 3rd"

So the game plan from Sunday is to be bearish and sell bounces that look corrective and remain under or vibrate the blue line area around 12369

The look now appears as a 3rd wave

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/AUD

It appears to have ended a 3rd wave, so a pullback now should see the 1.200 area for wave [iv]

From there i am looking for a new high to end a 5 wave sequence from 1.1607

Its not a pair i follow, but if you notice if could be a good cue for the AUDUSD pair, which is a pair i follow every day

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/AUD

Before and after shots

Even in this mess of a market we can find ideas to trade, clean and simple, we never even needed to know the daily wave count

5 wave decline and a 3 wave bounce, that is all you need to trade

You can count, to 5 and 3 cant you?

Elliott Wave is easy, when you follow a technician who knows what they are doing

Saturday, April 28, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/AUD

Well i guess we know why the AUDUSD went higher as risk on was being suggested via this pair, this is an issue for the Bears in risk markets, as if this gets traction i suspect the AUDUSD goes higher and takes stocks higher (which is being suggested in European markets such as DAX, CAC etc)

So the expected pullback i thought we would see in risk markets wont happen and from next week risk gets even stronger?

Below 12720 the trend is down

So as expected should happen when AUDUSD goes higher along with risk markets, then EURAUD pukes, this could be a real important clue for risk markets such as AUDUSD and ES

Only a strong reversal back above 12720 will start to look wrong for this idea, but above 12750 really needed, this pair needs to be monitored not only for a trade, but for a clue to risk markets especially AUDUSD

The inverse correlation between the 2 pairs is not there 100%, sometimes it skews a little but generally they are inverse to each other

Sunday, March 25, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/AUD & EUR/AUD

When looking at the EUR/AUD it got me thinking to have another look at the GBP/AUD cross as they move in sync most of the time

It appears that we could have a completed pattern, so it will be interesting to note the direction of both EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD, more so for a clue on AUD/USD and potentially risk on or off into next week

Generally both the GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD pairs push higher when the AUD/USD pair goes lower, so if both the EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD is near or maybe finished their corrective looking ideas, we could be seeing a reversal in the AUD crosses

Friday, March 2, 2012

EUR Cross Analysis

When you are unsure of the trend or looking for clues, it helps to use other crosses for clues

In this case the other 2 crosses are well ahead of the EUR/USD pair, so the better sell appears to be EUR/USD, i suspect its waiting on the US$ to get a bid

So that should put pressure on the EUR/USD, if it catches up with the other crosses, the EUR/USD is going to be a great trade

The EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD are already in solid down trends atm

Imo its worth looking at other crosses in the group for edges

Having rallied together on the LTRO bail out fund, its clear that the market wanted more and duly disappointed, so sold off, the fact the EUR/USD has not sold off as hard, makes me want to turn my attentions to sell EUR/USD more than the other 2 crosses