The next bounce will help both ideas, if a crappy move that fails around 15050 if can setup for a bearish "3rd of 3rd", if a strong bid above 15050 it will suggest the move from 15587 was a simple ABC decline and likely setup for a move to new yearly highs.
15050 is a big area for both bulls and bears. the winner of that area should ultimately decide the next larger move.
The move so far is a bit scrappy, although we can actually count it as the start of something bullish it needs a lot more upside to suggest a bullish setup.
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Sunday, June 8, 2014
Sunday, September 30, 2012
Target is towards 12850-129 (subject to the advance)
Thursday, September 27, 2012
The wave [iv] can be counted complete, although like all corrections they can morph into another variation, but its holding well above key support and its not really showing impulsive price action, so the odds suggest currently more upside in what i think will be wave [v] of a 5 wave impulse wave that started back in August.
Tuesday, May 15, 2012
Saturday, March 31, 2012
I am big fan of watching other FX crosses of the same grouping and using those for edges on other markets
For example here we can see the EUR/CAD appears to be in sync with the EUR/USD pair from the mid March lows
In fact its been in sync since the mid Jan lows
Anyhow, using the idea of a potential ending diagonal on EUR/CAD (red) we have a clue to the potential reversal of EUR/USD
So i am watching the EUR/CAD next week to see if it offer more evidence not only for the EUR/CAD pair to reverse but EUR/USD as well
There is of course the obvious H&S on both patterns
The advance since the lows made in Mid March is very corrective looking in both pairs
Friday, March 2, 2012
When you are unsure of the trend or looking for clues, it helps to use other crosses for clues
In this case the other 2 crosses are well ahead of the EUR/USD pair, so the better sell appears to be EUR/USD, i suspect its waiting on the US$ to get a bid
So that should put pressure on the EUR/USD, if it catches up with the other crosses, the EUR/USD is going to be a great trade
The EUR/AUD and EUR/CAD are already in solid down trends atm
Imo its worth looking at other crosses in the group for edges
Having rallied together on the LTRO bail out fund, its clear that the market wanted more and duly disappointed, so sold off, the fact the EUR/USD has not sold off as hard, makes me want to turn my attentions to sell EUR/USD more than the other 2 crosses
Wednesday, February 15, 2012
Whats the Elliott wave count on the daily time frame??
Frankly i don't care, i just know that it appears as a 3 wave move, and i can control risk now to 13192, if this idea is correct and ended a 3 wave advance from the Jan lows, then under 129 is expected from here
A move back above 13192 negates this idea
Now the last high might be only wave [w] and the decline if it fails to break under the lower trend line could be labeled a [x] wave, but 13192 confirms or negates the current decline as a 3 wave drop, the Bears need to push this under the lower trend line