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Showing posts with label EUR/USD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EUR/USD. Show all posts

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

Do you remember the cheer leading for the EURUSD back in April - May 2014? All I read was EURUSD is going to 150 160, sell the US$ etc .

Back then I was looking for a major peak for EURUSD I posted a couple of charts on Stocktwits.

See here: http://charts.stocktwits.com/production/original_22387342.PNG?1398488058

Sentiment was really bearish for the US$, but the complete opposite pattern was also setting up for the US$ (aka DX). Its not easy looking to fade the majority at major turns, but this is where Elliotticians have a distinct advantage.

Fast forward to today, we now have the same setup for the US$, sentiment has completely reversed against the EURUSD, In May 2014 everyone loved EURUSD, but now everyone hates it.Yet we are actually looking for a major low for EURUSD, we feel there is a high reward and once again we find ourselves looking to fade the crowd, just like we did at the May 2014 highs.

There is a strong reward trade setting up for those that are looking to fade the majority.



A 5 wave advance appears to be close to ending on the DX, so subsequently we see a 5 wave looking decline on EURUSD, we can clearly see a large RSI divergence also setting up for both markets.



If we are correct (we think we are) then expect a larger reversal, a turn that the majority will miss, just like they missed in May 2014.

Target is 132-134, that's going to be a great trade for those on the right side, another way to trade the move is to sell USDCHF, either way we think a larger move lower is setting in for the US$

So the trade will be to sell DX (aka USD) and USDCHF, buy EURUSD and GOLD



Saturday, October 18, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis on USD/SGD

A pair that i track closely for clues on the DX momentum, is USD/SGD, although we don't actually follow it regularly over at wavepatterntraders.com, it is a good proxy for the US$ movements.

You can see that its stalled a bit over the last few days, i suspect its a triangle, so once its finished we should see more upside and "thrust" higher towards 1.1283 - 70 to end wave [v]. As USD/SGD moves higher so should the DX and USDCHF.

So by using other closely correlated patterns we can get a strong opinion now on what the US$ should do over the week ahead.




The price structure on both USD/SGD and EURUSD is very corrective looking and supports the idea that once they are both finished the US$ should resume higher. Which fits in with our thesis that as EURUSD moves lower, the DX and USD/CHF move higher.



Sunday, May 11, 2014

Market Report: More Upside Still Expected For SPX/SPY

SPY



A new week, same outcome.

This seems to be same message every week, up down up down, if you are getting dizzy because of this price action you are not alone with those thoughts. I suspect the market is still currently in an ending diagonal for what i think is a 5th wave to complete a larger 5 wave advance from the Oct 2011 lows.

The whipsaw we have seen over the past few weeks is an inherent characteristic of the ending diagonal pattern, chop up as many bulls as bears before it finishes and then sets up a reversal. The key factor to the pattern is the shape, most will refer to the pattern as a bearish wedge, although in Elliott wave circles we call it an ending diagonal, but the message is still the same.

I have been short term bullish for a few weeks now, although it feels like i have been looking higher for months, the choppy upside is slowing the rate of ascent rapidly and causing most traders to either move to the sidelines or be forced to participate begrudging.

Wedges in general tend to be lethargic patterns and bore everyone to death right about the time most have given up to the idea of a reversal, this is where experience really matters, having the confidence to stay with the idea and ignore outside forces. I still feel that this pattern has a bit more upside to resolve first, so unless i see a strong reversal that breaks support, then i am continuing to look higher.

EURUSD


A good example of a potentially completed ending diagonal was witnessed on EURUSD this past week. The rapid reversal of that market argues that the idea is completed and a large decline is likely, that too bored traders to death for weeks, although we stuck to our guns and kept looking higher much to the dismay from the EURUSD bears until we got the new high above 13965, I am looking much lower on EURUSD, initial targets are at 136 then 133.


If we do indeed have an ending diagonal setting up on the SPY/SPX then what we saw on EURUSD is what i would expect to see on the SPY/SPX once its completed then a strong reversal lower.

Bulls beware, the ending diagonal (bearish wedge) is a classic reversal pattern and one that should not be ignored, in my opinion ignore it at your peril, markets don't go up forever. Although you would think they do judging by the level of bullishness in the media.

If you are interested in following our ideas on EURUSD and SPX then we have a new package especially designed just for traders that trade only EURUSD, SPX and Gold. For $20 a month you can follow our analysis of 3 of the most popular markets.

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Conclusion

I am still looking for a bit more upside in the SPX/SPY to complete the wedge pattern, once completed we are likely to setup for a strong decline, a decline that should be in the order of what we saw in 2011.

The EURUSD has probably put in a major peak, so against last weeks highs at 13993 i am expecting more downside.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.




Saturday, March 22, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of DX (aka US$) & EURUSD

Its been a while since i updated the blog, although you can still check out my thoughts on Twitter and Stock Twits.

Or just look right and you can read those twits, i am still active, although i have not really had the desire to write an article, especially about the US markets as there are not doing much these days.

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DX (USD$)

I posted this DX chart on the 13th march 2014 http://stocktwits.com/message/20965942

It appears to have finally broke out to the upside as i wanted to see, the break out was impressive, which came off the back of the FOMC, but whilst the move was strong its still lacking an inertial 5 wave advance, so more upside is needed from the bulls.

Staying above 79.80 supports more upside, so upside from USDCHF should be seen (basically USDCHF and the DX are the same pattern) and downside for EURUSD as that pair is inverted to DX and USDCHF.




So as the DX moves higher we should see EURUSD move lower.

EURUSD

I initially posted the setup we have been following on 2nd March 2014 http://stocktwits.com/message/20545671

Well we got the spike and potential reversal i wanted to see, but like the DX and USDCHF markets, we are working the idea of a possible small 5 wave decline.

Its important for us to see that initial 5 wave move, as until we see that, we cant be sure of a potential trend change.

Staying below 138.50 should see more downside, both the DX and EURUSD are lacking a few gyrations to make an initial 5 wave move.

If we do see the 5 wave pattern as we expect, that will be a great clue to suggest a trend reversal, then we can look to sell corrective rallies on EURUSD, and buy dips on the DX and USDCHF.

The potential for the US$ to rally is HUGE, and IMO is worth following, sentiment is against a US$ rally and that's usually the time the US$ puts in a low when the world is looking for it to crash.




Trade safe

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

The spike we saw last week could have possibly ended wave E of a large triangle (bearish idea) or wave [D] (bullish idea)

Usually when you see a move like we saw, that runs buy stops (above 13831 and 13850) and reverses back under the area where it rallied from, it generally marks a peak



So the evidence, whilst not conclusive, it does potentially suggest a peak and a move lower can be seen



Idea 1 suggests the large triangle that many Elliotticians are following, so its either finished wave E or close to finishing wave E

So in 2014 its going to be a nasty time for the EURUSD



Idea 2 suggest it can still see a pullback towards 128-130 but it will setup for a large move higher towards 155, that will suggest the US$ is going to pretty much crash

This idea actually aligns much better with my ideas Gold seeing a large move higher in 2014 back to $1500-1600

Due to the sideways range we have witnessed for the past 4 years (same as GBPUSD) there is no one pattern that stands out, its really all about the next large move lower, based on that structure will help confirm which idea is finally in control



We can clearly see where one goes, so will the other, i am still expecting some large moves in both pairs even if they stay in this range for another year, scaling down to the shorter term time frames we can easily find trade set ups

So if EURUD sees 120 GBPUSD should see sub 140

If EURUSD sees 155, GBPUSD should go to 170+

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

With the market erasing the prior decline its forced me to look at other ideas.

I still suspect this whole series of waves we have seen from the Nov lows at 133 is a corrective bounce, although its morphed into an ugly correction, much uglier than i wanted.

I traded with my OWN $$$$ the setup i previously posted, in front of members, so its not a case of "hiding" my losses when things go bad.

Members of the site can see i also lose $$$, i am not ashamed of my losses, i respected the setup and moved on to the next idea.

I don't have nothing to prove to anyone, for the record i took a draw down of 142 pips, so to my Twitter fans that abused me.

If you are reading this and you are getting a kick out of me losing $$$, hey i am happy for you.

But rest assured i make far more $$$ than i lose.

These things happen, its happened before and will no doubt happen again, for my "fans" i am generous and giving you a setup i will be looking to trade.


I am watching for a strong break under 13550, but a closer look appears to be a small ED.

Furthermore, although i wont post them, we are watching set ups on EURCAD, EURNZD (posted above) and EURAUD.




Other ideas and setups are reserved for members only



Saturday, October 5, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

I was looking for a high in this pair this past week, with a 5 wave advance it look ready to reverse, although from the chart i posted on Stock Twits, it chopped a bit more to the upside, but the choppy upside was a strong clue that this pair was setup to reverse lower.

http://stocktwits.com/message/16229900


Going into next week i am working 2 ideas, potentially staying under 13580 can suggest the more aggressive idea, i was short on Friday and caught a good portion of the decline, but due to the uncertainty of the US shut down debacle i wanted to go in flat before the weekend and protect my gains.



But if this pair cant rally above 13580 then i will put the trade back and on and get short again as idea 2 would likely be in the picture.

I suspect we have some sort of peak in place.

What is it part off?? well i am not going to divulge that information as that is for members, but suffice to say i think big things are about to happen in the US$ and the associated pairs.

Moves that could surprise many traders.

Interested in knowing where this pair and many other pairs are going next?

Come and join us and get your road map.


Saturday, August 17, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

Short term there appears to be a low risk setup for this pair.

Staying under 13379 can set up for a move lower, so from Sundays open i want to see a 3 wave bounce fail around 13360, that will offer a low risk/high reward setup.

If the market has just finished an expanded flat and wave [c] ended at Fridays close, then the spike we saw over the past 2 days will be reversed and target back under 132.


So the setup is to look to sell 13350-60.

Stops at 13379 target sub 132, so a good R/R setup.

Daily and weekly wave counts are reserved for members.

Sign up for the Forex package for $30 a month if you want to know where the market is going next.

Saturday, April 27, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

Whilst it remains under 13093 i am looking at 2 ideas for this pair, although at this current time i am not biased yet to any idea, as we are right between both ideas

Idea 1 - Suggests its currently in wave [d] of a triangle and probably head towards 12970 before a bounce in wave [e], then head lower towards 129-12875 (as shown in red)

Idea 2 - Currently in wave [iii] of a possible ending diagonal (ED) and form what technicians called a "bullish wedge" although Elliotticians call this an ending diagonal (as shown in black)

Suffice to say traders can look to sell this market if it pushes to around the 13050-60 area with limited risk to 13093

Both ideas rely on staying below 13093, its that simple.

Target 129-12875


Thursday, April 18, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis EURUSD (short term)

With a clear 5 wave decline, I strongly suspect the advance we have seen over the last 2 weeks has ended

Its been a choppy advance and troubling to label, (most corrective structures are a problem) but the evidence of a potential US$ low is strong

As long as any bounce here is in 3 waves and stops under 13198 you have a setup to sell

Ideally a move to around 131-13120 in 3 waves is the target area, but it requires some sort of corrective 3 wave bounce

It may only get as far as 13080 before heading lower

I see evidence of a reversal in other US$ pairs such as the USDCHF and GBPUSD, so the US$ low that i  have been looking for this week, appears to be in place based on yesterdays price action

So more upside expected for the US$ and USDCHF (subject to corrections) and more downside for EURUSD and GBPUD (subject to corrections)

Lets say this is part of a larger correction, even still you have a simple setup, if a 3 wave bounce is seen, its a setup to sell, stops at 13198, target 12875


Friday, March 8, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

If we look at the basic pattern, it appears to be in wave [c] of an expanded flat, so, a small dip for a 4th wave then a new high will make it 5 up from the last swing low



 Now that maybe all of the correction or only the 1st leg, as it can be counted as an ABC, but only wave W of a larger WXY, so we would see a dip for wave X then push higher towards 133-134 for wave Y

 
But i suspect this has got a bit higher into the 13150 area for this wave [c], so watch carefully any new high for a reversal around 13140-13150

Monday, February 25, 2013

Market Report: It Has Started

Well not quite, but it's very possible now a high is in place. In last week's I was looking for a push higher to test the prior highs. We have been tracking an ending diagonal for the past few weeks, only the trouble with that pattern is they have a tendency to morph and waste time.

Last week

SPX Chart
Larger Image

It's the time wasting as it forms the wedge shape that frustrates traders, until a point it breaks hard and almost all traders are not aware what has happened.
When markets are like that I strongly encourage members to look at other markets, with over 25 markets
that we follow a decent idea is never far away.

SPX Chart
Larger Image


Well we finally got what appears to be the break we were expecting, and we even followed it lower to cover our shorts on the end of a 5 wave move.

If the bounce remains under the prior swing high at 1531SPX, we are looking to put shorts back on for what I expect will be a strong breakdown towards 1450SPX.

With our risk known, it offers a higher reward for a small risk, exactly the sort of trades that I encourage members to take, I think if the market fails to see a strong break above 1520SPX, it should setup for a decent move lower, having put in a 5 wave decline it's a strong start that a peak is in place.
As always we use stops and know our risk before we put the trade on.

ES

As mentioned above, some members trade the ES, so we have almost 24hr coverage of the markets. If members want an update as to the ideas, they can come into the chat room and ask questions or see the latest ideas in the forums. With the extensive range we trade there is always a market for everyone.
Some members, including myself were short the ES well before the move as we knew the risk to the idea was just under 1540SPX, so using the ideas on the SPX for risk control on the ES.
I was personally short from 1517-20ES as suggested in our swing trades service, so members had the ability to follow my personal trades.

Read the rest here:  http://www.safehaven.com/article/28924/market-report-it-has-started

Saturday, February 9, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

Taken from this weekends post:

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So what are the ideas so far?

1: The idea shown in blue is bullish and suggest we should see a low shortly around 13320-50 and see an aggressive rally higher back above 13480-500

Support is at 13280 lower down

2: The idea shown in black is very aggressive and suggests a weak bounce in a small wave [ii] then setups for a "3rd of 3rd" lower, it should fail under the 13480 area (red line) but more importantly any advance will be corrective looking

The bearish idea agrees with the European markets seeing a correction to the 5 wave decline and then they all setup for a move lower

Short term i suspect a low can be seen to the end of a 5 wave decline from 13595

Wave v = i @ 13326







Its a great start for the bears although we are into a setup where we can confirm if the market has a new high looming, or if the market is setup to smash any bullish setup and move lower under this trend line 



Saturday, January 19, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD (Long Term)

From its interception in 1999, we can clearly see that its pushed higher in a 5 wave advance into the 2008 peak at 160, although the data goes back further than 1999, i suspect its simply calculating the difference if we were using the same currencies today that make up the EURO

But for this post i will simply start at the date the EURO was a valid currency which was 1st Jan 1999

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_euro

The obvious pattern is a triangle, and working wave [E], there are still 2 outstanding targets at 13480 and the 138-13830 area where there is a confluence of fibbo resistance

How it gets to those targets is going to be the problem that traders will need to solve, although personally i like the idea of seeing 13480 if 132s can hold

But there is a more bullish idea if 13257 can hold, although holding 132 still can setup for a move higher, its just based on any declines



Long term targets are focused on the 1.10 area

Saturday, December 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

Having some knowledge about your chosen market before hand is a great asset and i encourage every trader to do some homework before you take a trade as you can not afford to freeze in moments of high volatility

Friday we were looking for the end of a 5 wave move on the EURUSD pair, as this starting to approach our target zone, i penciled in 12875-129 for a potential low on this pair

Having already known that 12875 is a huge area of support on a daily and weekly level, that was the 1st area of support to watch for, the round figure of 129 was always going to be a point of support as the markets love round numbers, psychology and all that stuff

Furthermore as we were in a suspect 5th wave of an Elliott Wave impulse move it was another factor to take into consideration.

I had a fibbo targeted as well just above the 129 area, so that was an area of support and combining these things together made sense to start to get out of shorts at the intended target band.

When you make a plan regardless if the markets continue further or not, you need to follow the ideas from start to finish, if you say you are going to cover a trade at a certain area, you should carry out those thoughts as its good discipline for when you need to take a loss, as if you dont follow through on your ideas it creates bad habits and those are deadly as they can lead to a bad trade where you refuse to accept you are wrong

The target band was 12875-129, as soon as this pushed under 129 i covered shorts, it may of moved far lower, but it may also bounced aggressively and i would have lost the gains i had at the time

With a 5 wave decline that was the 1st caution to get out of shorts, secondly the fibbo wave [v] target was hit, so that 2 areas of caution

Thirdly i already knew where support was at 12875 and it was weekly support, the low was 12876, and the bounce went as far as 12950 (so far)

But as i suspect a 5 wave decline is in place so the odds switch to a setup for a bounce and could see 130-13050, so a 5 wave decline gives us some price action to work with now, as if we see a 3 wave bounce then it sets up a move lower stops at 13127 (last weeks high) and target towards 128 as the next target

Just a little bit of effort and knowing your market can save you a lot of pain and save you $$ as well

Lazy traders make lazy trades, diligent traders make excellent trades, you decide what type of trader you want to be.


Sunday, October 7, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of DAX

Following on from my last post a week or so back, i still suspect this is involved inside a 4th wave from the June lows, i have the same working count of the US markets, so they appear to be in sync with one another

From the price action i have seen so far it supports those ideas hence i remain bullish on US and European stocks

Unless i see price evidence to negate that view then IMO traders should remain bullish and look higher

Short term we have a small 5 wave decline for what i think is wave [a], then it appears that we have a 3 wave advance for wave [b] (suspected), so to finish this off we really want to see a new move to 7200 for wave [c]

So aggressive traders can look for a move lower early next week, with small risk, if the DAX can stay below 7400 early next week, we can use that for risk control






If a decline is setting up on the DAX, then we should see a decline in the US stock markets which further agrees with some ideas i am working with on US stocks

We can also see that the DAX and EURUSD are tracking each other, which is basically the same trade as ES and EURUSD

So being bullish on US and European stocks confirms that we need to remain bullish on EURUSD, as its the same trade, only when we see a break down of the ideas would we need to be cautious, but for now.

"if it ain't broke why fix it"

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURSD

Following on from my last post on this pair, it appears to be working well, although there is a potential triangle that traders need to be careful above should this pair see a strong break under 12960

But above 12802 the market is bullish, and above 12960 the market is very bullish, but we wont really know until we see some price action on Sunday/Monday


The one issue is that some of the European and US stock markets really could do with a move lower and that may support a bit of "risk off" selling and a move higher in the US$ hence the triangle idea could come into play, although recently we have seen the EURUSD hold its ground even when we have seen a push lower in stocks, but in general the ES and EURUSD are moving in sync

For now lets use 12960 for guidance

Monday, October 1, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

I was originally working 2 ideas, and initially thought the decline would be a small 4th wave pull back, but due to the time aspect, i suspect this is a larger wave [iv] and target the 38.2% fibbo retrace of wave [iii] around 12775

The June highs come in at around 12745, there is the room to push lower if needed, although the decline from the high on wave ( what i suspect is wave [iii]) appears to be corrective looking and a 38.2% retracement of wave [iii] is a normal correction for wave [iv]

So any small bounce that fails under 129 should lead to a new low, a strong bid above 12959 suggests the low is in and a move to 13250 is suggested


If we are working a triple ZZ in EURUSD it seems likely that we will see a reversal in both AUDUSD and 6C (aka USDCAD in reverse), so its important to be watching all 3 markets as i suspect if the EURUSD reverses higher it will see a risk on bid higher, and i suspect US stocks will get a bid as well

So even e-mini traders should be watching the EURUSD pair from here

Monday, August 27, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD






The advance from the 25th July lows has likely morphed into a double ZZ although i am watching for an equally valid wave count (labeled alternative)

The overall look suggests the advance should still see 127-12750 before a resumption lower, although with the Jackson Hole meeting this week, there is many markets waiting on the direction from the FED.

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EUR/USD






I thought readers might be interested in an update to this pair

A couple of weeks back i wrote a post suggesting that we should see a decent bounce, or something to correct the 5 wave decline from 12741

http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2012/07/elliott-wave-analysis-of-eurusd-before.html

So as a reminder to those that don't know, after every 5 wave move we should see a correction in 3 waves, that's the simplest form of Elliott Wave

If we fast forward, we have a 3 wave bounce as expected and potentially the start of something more stronger, although we will only will know the true extent of the move as we monitor the waves, but we can use wave structure to control risk and monitor the ideas.

I have included in an alternative wave count, that's not to say i don't have faith in my ideas, far from it, but there is the potential to morph on corrections and we might see only a 3 wave bounce from 12440 and then push to 125 (that idea comes from an idea on the GBPUSD)

The EURUSD pair is anything but a friendly pair when it comes to corrections, but i still think if the high is not in on this pair, then regardless if we see a dip then higher, IMO we are likely going to see lower prices on the EURUSD over the coming weeks/months

The bounce has likely neutralised the bearish sentiment, but its a 3 wave bounce and the odds suggest that if its not all of the correction then being part of a correction still suggests lower prices only it will waste time as it did on the prior correction around the 12320 area before heading lower in wave [v] from 12741

From the last swing high it appears to be a 5 wave decline, so a 3 wave bounce is a setup against the last swing high (red line) we have risk control

Target - open based on any subsequent decline

5 waves to the downside and 3 waves to the upside is a trend that wants to go lower


If you look at the fractal chart do you notice how the bounce is pretty much the same as the prior blue fractal a bit higher up, by using the history of the corrections we can find price windows and hone down that using the Elliott Wave principle.