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Showing posts with label EURUSD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EURUSD. Show all posts

Friday, November 22, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD (short term)

I am looking for a choppy/corrective bounce into the target reversal zone around 13490-13520

Stops need to be put at 13577, although i would be a little concerned if we saw a strong break above 13550

Simply put, sell the blue box area, stick a stop at 13577, we know where its wrong

Long term and 4hr wave counts are reserved for members, but this is a "bread and butter" setup

Please i am posting this idea BEFORE any potential reversal.

Yes, before you ask i will be trading the setup as well.

Update: I took the trade and got stopped out for a loss of 144 pips

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of TBT (Proshares Ultrashort)

In my weekend article i wrote about my concerns of a market that is very confused and we have 2 sides fighting each other for control.

On one side we have a potential reversal setup in the US aka DX and the US 30year bonds.

Yet since June 21st we have seen a bid come into the market and push up risk markets such as the ES and AUDUSD.

So we have to ask ourselves who is right?

The issue the bears in risk need to be concerned about is the US$ and its ramifications in the overall risk on/off trade, as if $$ moves away from safety, where does it go?

If the EURUSD is ending its cycle from the Feb 2012 highs and a 5 wave decline, then logically one one think that the move moves into assets that look cheap.

At this present stage, The markets that stand out are Gold and Silver, as value wise, i think i would would rather buy a market(s) that are near the lows, than to buy a market(s) that has travelled a large way since the June lows such as the ES and AUDUSD markets.

The question still needs to be answered, if we are seeing a cycle end where does the $$ go?

Looking at the TBT ETF, there is a strong case for a 5 wave decline ending or very near to a terminal point, and seeing how it closely tracks the EURUSD, (which it should as the EURUSD is basically opposite of the DX, EURUSD is 57% of the DX)

I still think traders on both sides of the aisle need to be vigilant here as we have a strange market.

But as we are seeing time and time again, when there is a safety flight bid, traders are running to the US$ and US bond market, but my work potentially suggests that cycles in both those markets could be signally a reversal.

Just how much lower can yields go on TYX? And how much lower does TBT go before a significant reversal?

One thing for sure is that when everyone is on one side of the boat, the market tends to reverse after a mature trend.

Based off my work, a mature trend appears to be ending on the EURUSD, DX, TBT and ZB.