Elliott Wave Training

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http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2012/04/elliott-wave-training.html



Showing posts with label FTSE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label FTSE. Show all posts

Monday, October 27, 2014

Market Report: Has The FTSE Put in a Major Top?

The strong decline on the FTSE over the past few weeks may have come as a surprise to many traders but for us it was expected. It really could not have gone any better for members. I have been warning members for a number of weeks to expect a strong reversal and a crash style move, although we have been preparing for a strong decline; members have also been trading the upside, as before members could trade the downside we needed to see the 6900 area tested.


Before


After

Short term we can count a 5 wave decline from 6904, so that's a positive sign for the bears, currently we are looking for a corrective bounce in 3 waves to end around 6400-6500. Once any corrective bounce and retracement of the prior decline is finished. We are looking for the next leg lower, that move is expected to exceed 6000, if it's as aggressive and bearish as I think it will be, it's going to be a terrific trade and better than the initial decline from 6904. Our risk point at this stage is 6904, which is too large, so we are looking for evidence of the next leg lower.
The key now is the make sure any retracement is in 3 waves, if so then we will be looking to put on shorts and advise members to sell this market, if it's really put in a long term major top we are expecting a serious decline over the next few months and potentially retesting the March 2009 lows again.
As always the long term ideas are subject to revision as a lot can happen between now and a few years out, but as our primary focus is on the short term charts the long term charts usually take care of themselves.
If this style of analysis is the sort of analysis that you are interested in, then I encourage you to check out our site, if you need to know what is likely to happen before it happens then I think our work can help you, no matter if you are an investor or trader.
Until next time,
Have a profitable week ahead

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of VOD (FTSE)

I recently posted a potential timing chart of VOD on StockTwits see here: http://stocktwits.com/message/18150839



Its met a time and price fibbo cluster and i think holders of this stock should take some precautions and watch this stock very closely.

The FTSE is showing significant weakness compared to many other world markets.

From the highs made on the 12th Oct 2013 i can count a 5 wave decline, so if a bounce fails to completely retrace the decline, then it can setup for more downside in this stock and add further weakness to the FTSE, as the banks are also suffering in the FTSE.

There is a nice gap just above which will be the perfect area for this to tag and end the correction before setting up and moving lower.

The idea is wrong above the last swing high, (blue line) so that's where the stop needs to be.

Sunday, July 7, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of RDSA and HSBA

An quick update to this article http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/06/elliott-wave-analysis-of-ftse-major.html

We have what appears as a 3 wave bounce in both these 2 stocks, so both of these stocks will be crucial clues to the FTSE100 next direction.

If we see a strong sell off on Monday and follow through from Fridays decline it will suggest the bounce i was looking for in the FTSE is finished.

I was targeting 6500 in the FTSE, we achieved that on Friday.

If you have access to sell these 2 stocks (via options or spread bet if you live in the UK) it could be a good trade.

Or you could simply look to sell the FTSE under Fridays high (6500 would be the stop).

RDSA


HSBA




A reversal back above Fridays high will suggest some other variation of pattern

Sunday, June 30, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE (Major High in Place)?

The case for a long term major top looks very compelling.

The advance from the March 2009 lows has a 3 wave look and to an Elliottician that's significant as it only suggests a corrective advance.



I strongly suspect the FTSE has indeed put in a major top, the subsequent decline off the 6876 high is impulsive and argues for a trend change.

I suggest traders that are holding stocks in the FTSE use the next bounce to sell into and off load all stocks and investment's, as if a major high is in place, then you may live to regret not talking prudent action.

So if the advance from the 2009 lows is finished, the question Elliotticians are asking themselves is where does it fit in on the macro wave count? Whilst i am not a fan of trading daily or weekly time scales, i suspect what we have seen is a large [B] wave as part of a lager flat pattern.



Wave [A] appears to be a 3 wave flat, [B] i suspect is a simple Zig Zag, which is a 3 wave pattern.

So the piece we are missing is wave [C], which is likely to be a 5 wave decline, back to test the March 2009 lows.

So if the FTSE has indeed put in a major high, I am looking for a price target under 3400.

The idea is invalidated above 6876.

I am watching 2 stocks that are heavily weighted in the FTSE, well in fact they are  the 1st and 2nd holdings according to this data http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTSE_100_Index


The first is Royal Dutch Shell.

RSDA

It looks like a 5 wave decline, from the same time the FTSE put in its yearly high, so with a 5 wave decline appearing to be locked in place, i am looking for a 3 wave bounce, once any correction is completed we should see more downside.



The other stock is HSBC.

HSBA

The same idea, a 5 wave decline that appears to have started from the high on the FTSE.

So if we see a 3 wave correction, i suspect it will setup more downside much similar to  RSDA.



 I am sure its obvious what should happen to the FTSE should both HSBA and RSDA follow the script i have shown.





Friday, June 7, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE (update)

Since my last posts on the FTSE (see here http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/search/label/FTSE) the market has pulled back well and in alignment with the expectation for at least a move to 6200

Looking at the daily ideas i can make a case for both bullish and bearish, although at this stage i am partially biased more to the bullish count, based on some ideas with the SPX, but happy to switch bias should i see a major breakdown in the market. Its too early to confirm that breakdown.

Bear

The market has topped and ended the bull market from the 2009 lows in a larger ABC advance

We have a RSI div, which is a positive sign for the the bear count, its hanging on for dear life to the RSI trend line.




Short term its not been a great decline to count and the DAX is far from looking the same, but i treat each market on its own merits.



Staying below 6500 suggests more downside and the bears have nothing to fear if the market cant bounce above the blue line.

It looks like its ending wave [iii] of a larger [iii], so we should be entering a series of small bounces and then move lower, we call that a series of 3s and 4s.

But the key area at 6500 should keep the trend looking lower as there is still some gyrations missing to complete a 5 wave decline from 6876 which is the 1st major stepping stone for the bears on the daily chart.

If we did see a 5 wave decline at daily level it would virtually confirm the trend has reversed.

Bull

The last peak at 6876 only ended wave [3] of a larger wave C, so we would need to see some sort of corrective decline for wave [4], my initial target was 6000-6200, but its also to do with "form" so i need to be able to count some sort of 3 wave decline.



Short term its basically the same as the prior short term idea, although its a 3 wave decline, you could label it as a ABC decline, i have chosen to label it as a WXY decline, but its essentially the same idea.

A short term pop into the 6450 area in 3 waves should setup a move lower and target under 6300.

So both ideas will rely on the idea of a corrective pop and then setup more downside.

The short term resistance areas, relative to the pattern will help confirm which pattern long term is working.

.

As long as the market remains below key resistance then the ideas are valid.

Are you interesting in following these ideas on the FTSE? Come and join us, a road map knowing the likely path going forward, has got to be better than trading blind.

If you know where you are going then the market is a lot easier, and by knowing where you are wrong will help you stay in the trade for much longer, staying in the trade longer will help you stop over trading and help increase your gains.

Elliott Wave used in the right hands is a great tool

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE

Update to the last FTSE posting

Short term i suspect this is ending wave [iii] from the 6225, this is a similar wave count to the SPX, so a reversal around 6830 would be the ideal around, its closing in on a fibbo target

Whilst it is above 6750 the trend remains up, a move back under 6750 will be a clue to suggest wave [iv] has started



I am targeting the 6600-6650 area for wave [iv], before setting up in wave [v] above 6900-7000



If we can see a decent decline for wave [iv] to 6650,  then a move higher for wave [v] it can also align with a peak around the 20-25th June as per the timing chart


Thursday, May 16, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE

The overall look on the FTSE in my opinion supports the case for a large ABC advance, although there are 2 ideas i am currently tracking, both ideas really suggest a potential pullback, based on the pullback will help confirm which idea is in progress

Idea 1: The idea in black suggests a potential termination to a larger WXY correction and is the preferred idea, based off the May 2012 lows it looks like its ending a 5 wave advance

The latest advance is showing a strong RSI divergence which supports the case of a 5th wave ending form the May 2012 lows

Idea 2: However, it maybe only be ending the idea in blue, but eventually a decent pullback towards 6200 is the idea and target the lower trend channel line

Although i have been looking for a peak in this market for the past 2 weeks, the structure suggests at minimum i would expect to see 6200 once a pullback starts. So whilst i am waiting for evidence of a reversal, i still suspect we could be close to a reversal based on the short term charts, although they maybe a few days away from completion


Another long term idea, is that of a triangle and its now ending wave C, so in a 5th wave of a potential C wave of a larger ABC, but the idea is still suggesting a potential peak and something significant


Although i am not much of a cycle trader there appears to be a nice 56Week cycle running on this market, so gives a potential date around the 24th June, although i focus on wave structure more than cycles


Monday, December 31, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE

Post taken from the forum:

The FTSE has the potential now for the rally from the Nov lows to have ended as there is simply no way i can label it as part of a 5 wave impulse move, it is very corrective and we finally have seen an impulsive looking decline that can suggest far far lower prices ahead

A 7 wave swing is corrective and suggests what Elliotticians call a double Zig Zag or a WXY correction

Which is simply and ABC (which is called wave W) then a X wave, followed by another ABC (which we call wave Y)

So with a 7 wave swing looking completed this looks like high in place and substantial downside is setting up

Idea 1: A small 5 wave decline from 5997 will be seen followed by a 3 wave bounce to around 5950-60 then that will setup a more lower, the stops need to be placed at 5997

Idea 2: A more aggressive bearish setup and it fails to get above 5910-30 and then we see a strong break lower, stops will need to be placed at 5947

You can see the overlapping waves as it struggled to get above the 6000 mark, there is a strong suggestion this has topped the rally from the November lows, many other markets like CAC and Eurostoxx have similar  advances from the same time frame


Thursday, June 7, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE



Short term this should open around 5420, so a few more gyrations should finish off a 5 wave move from 5320, on the open it will have a 5 wave look, so technically it can be completed, but i suspect it is still inside a wave [iii] so ends wave iii of [iii] then a small dip around 5390 for iv of [iii] and carry on higher for wave [iii], from there i suspect we would pullback in wave [iv]

If we were to see a strong decline under 5350-60, then its likely wave [v] was extended from 5300, once any 5 wave move is completed, then we see a reversal of some sort, the RSI supports idea 1, so expecting to hold above 5350 on a pullback

Look to buy any corrective move above 5350 for wave iv of [iii], only a strong move under 5350 would i take notice

Target is above 5450

Friday, May 4, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE


























The FTSE has been mediocre compared to the US markets, but held up better than its counter parts the DAX,CAC & EURSTOXX

Currently there is 2 ways to label the moves, its always been my thoughts that the move is a corrective move, so far we have see a great reaction from my target areas from back in March 2012

Idea 1 is that of an expanding leading diagonal, a rare pattern, but very valid, if the bounce we are currently involved in remains around the 5850 area and a 3 wave advance, i suspect there is far more downside looming and towards 4800 is an initial target

Idea 2 delays the decline but working an ending diagonal so a move towards 6100-6150 then a reversal.

So currently its about the current advance to confirm or negate this suspected 3 wave advance

I wrote this back in 13th March

"I still think we need to retest the highs again between 5860-6000 again, to finish this idea i posted yesterday, so on a new high, i am actively looking for a reversal again"

The result speaks for itself

Are you looking to follow these ideas?

For $15 a month you can follow my European market ideas

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Market Newsletter (Weekend Edition)

While its free i suggest taking a look at the contents in this weeks newsletter

http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/ElliottNewsletter/WPT-18-03-2012.pdf

Analysis on EUR/USD, SPX,DOW,RUT,FTSE,DOW UTIL,GOLD,SILVER &Bonds

The trial ends on 29th March 2012

Read the rest here.

here.

Monday, February 27, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE


Is the high in place??? we will find out very soon, but readers of the newsletter (which is still free by the way, as its a trial) as well as members were aware of the short term risk for this idea

Are we on our way to 4800 again?, time will tell

Thursday, February 9, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of FTSE


Currently still within the realms of a correction move off the Oct 2011 low

Now whilst other markets have shown more upside potential the FTSE has lagged somewhat and barely at a measured 1x1 move at 5955 where Y=W

I still consider the actual advance as a correction as this stage, although other markets are really pushing any Bearish potential here

But i am working some ideas in the USD/CAD and AUD/USD pairs that suggests an aggressive reversal to set up

See previous postings, those ideas have not changed although the ES chart i posted a few days back is on day 50 so getting nearer to time fractals based off the 2010 rallies (previous fractals were 53 and 55 days)

The suspected advance atm is a 3 wave move labeled [X] and potentially a move back to see the Oct 2011 lows again

Any continuation higher in stocks and aggressive buying in AUD/USD and selling in USD/CAD will suggest the market has other ideas and likely kill the ideas i am currently working

As with everything risk is involved in every set up.