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Showing posts with label Forex. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forex. Show all posts

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of NZDUSD (short term)

The daily chart of this pair is messy and no clarity at all, but that don't mean there is never any trade ideas, if you scale down to a 30 min chart you can see from 0.8391 that there is a 5 wave decline

From 0.8242 i want to see a 3 wave bounce towards 0.8330

That will setup for a potential move lower in another 5 wave decline.

Stops need to be put at 0.8391

Target 0,8150-70

Credit to @GregInBaltimore for bringing this idea to my attention


Saturday, January 4, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPJPY

Potentially this has finally ended a 5 wave advance from the lows made on 9th Oct 2013. From the last swing high at 174.82 there is a 5 wave decline, so I am looking for a 3 wave bounce to around 173-173.50

That can set up for a strong break lower towards 168-166

Stops need to be put at the last swing high 174.82

This looks a high reward trade providing we see a 3 wave corrective bounce, it MUST remain under the prior swing low of 174.82 as well as bounce in a corrective manor.

A strong break above 173.50 would be a caution for the bears, but this current bounce is the key aspect of this trade set up.

Friday, January 3, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

Post taken from the forum

Please note i don't post "after the event" marketing shots to show you how good we are, we try to find trade setups like this everyday.

I see little point in showing you shots after the event, its just marketing, if you are going to post those sorts of shorts at least show the next set up. Unless someone can benefit in "real time" then its all marketing, only showing the ideas that work out.

Win, lose or draw, i put am confident in the ideas, to put the ideas out BEFORE the expected move and explain how to trade them. We know what we want to see, and we know where our risk is.


The lack of a new low has forced me to adjust the initial start to a small LD for wave [i], thereby realigning the idea

The sideways price action is not fitting with the initial decline, so it appears we are now in a correction to the decline from 16602

I am looking for a reversal between 16470-16510, we know there is HUGE resistance at 16480

So a 3 wave bounce from 16409 into the 16470-16510 are can offer members to get short, stops need to be put at 16602

The key is that we need a 3 wave bounce from 16409, target towards 162 then 160

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

The spike we saw last week could have possibly ended wave E of a large triangle (bearish idea) or wave [D] (bullish idea)

Usually when you see a move like we saw, that runs buy stops (above 13831 and 13850) and reverses back under the area where it rallied from, it generally marks a peak

So the evidence, whilst not conclusive, it does potentially suggest a peak and a move lower can be seen

Idea 1 suggests the large triangle that many Elliotticians are following, so its either finished wave E or close to finishing wave E

So in 2014 its going to be a nasty time for the EURUSD

Idea 2 suggest it can still see a pullback towards 128-130 but it will setup for a large move higher towards 155, that will suggest the US$ is going to pretty much crash

This idea actually aligns much better with my ideas Gold seeing a large move higher in 2014 back to $1500-1600

Due to the sideways range we have witnessed for the past 4 years (same as GBPUSD) there is no one pattern that stands out, its really all about the next large move lower, based on that structure will help confirm which idea is finally in control

We can clearly see where one goes, so will the other, i am still expecting some large moves in both pairs even if they stay in this range for another year, scaling down to the shorter term time frames we can easily find trade set ups

So if EURUD sees 120 GBPUSD should see sub 140

If EURUSD sees 155, GBPUSD should go to 170+

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

In my previous post,i showed a setup that i suggested to members to buy the dip with a target of 165


That target has now been reached, although there is the option of more upside whilst it remains above 16450

Its a deep pullback, larger than i would want to see, but if it can find some buyers above 16450 then i think this has the chance to see 166+

A strong break below 16540 would suggest a peak is in place and target 163 then 16220

You can count a 5 wave move from 16321, although the 5th wave is unusably large, it look more like its part of a 3rd wave as opposed to being a 5th wave.

16450 is a key area for both bull and bears

The bulls need to find some buyers quickly

Resistance at 16480

Long term ideas could suggest it might have ended (or close to ending) a large triangle over the past 4-5 years

With such a large range and the fact this pair has gone nowhere for nearly 5 years, traders need to focus on the 60 or 120 min charts for trade ideas, there have been plenty of opportunities if you know where to look

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Market Report: JPY Carry Trade Reversal?

In my last article I left readers with the potential idea of a peak in the US markets, although we saw a minor pullback, it was not the move or the initial decline I am expecting.

Although this minor new high in the SPX has caused me to adjust my wave counts a little, the thesis is still on track and I am expecting a large decline in the markets, in the early part of 2014.

Bearish Idea

S&P500 Weekly Bearish Idea Chart
Larger Image

I suspect this last spike we have seen over the past week is wave 5 of [5], so whilst it can push a bit higher I do think it's close to a reversal.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/32234/market-report-jpy-carry-trade-reversal

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

A setup that we are watching is to buy the pullback on this pair.

Stops need to be put at the last swing low at 16220, ideally this finds buyers between 16280-16320

You can see that buyers have stepped in already at the 61.8% retrace of the prior rally, but if a bit lower down, then i would expect buyers to support the market between 16280-163

Target 165+

So a nice risk/reward trade if you get the opportunity to buy nearer 163

Strong weekly support at 16280

Friday, December 20, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

I last wrote about this pair back in Oct see here: http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/10/elliott-wave-analysis-of-usdjpy.html

In that article i mentioned the fact that i believed the USDJPY was setting up for an exciting trade, true to its word it do not disappoint.

Having had a 105 for a few months now, the last few gyrations of this market appear to have possibly been put in place.

We have met those targets i put out in the Oct post.

Now that does not necessary mean a top is locked in place, what is does say is that i am no longer bullish this pair.

I am extremely cautious and looking for signs of a major top in USDJPY and have warned members that the time for being bullish is potentially over, we need to tread VERY CAREFULLY.

I am targeting a major move lower, one that can see towards the 95.00 area.

With the setup on NIK-225, I think 2014 could be once again "all about the JPY"

Bulls consider this a warning.



Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of AUDUSD

I suspect this is still inside a 4th wave labelled as wave [iv] of A, staying under 0.9607 suggests a move towards 0.9400, which would then complete a 5 wave decline from 0.9757 and set up for bounce higher in what i suspect will be wave B of [B].

A move above 0.9607 negates the short term idea, that this is still inside wave [iv].

Ideally it stays inside this smaller triangle idea, but under 0.9550 offers a setup to sell, stops 0.9607

Saturday, October 5, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

I was looking for a high in this pair this past week, with a 5 wave advance it look ready to reverse, although from the chart i posted on Stock Twits, it chopped a bit more to the upside, but the choppy upside was a strong clue that this pair was setup to reverse lower.


Going into next week i am working 2 ideas, potentially staying under 13580 can suggest the more aggressive idea, i was short on Friday and caught a good portion of the decline, but due to the uncertainty of the US shut down debacle i wanted to go in flat before the weekend and protect my gains.

But if this pair cant rally above 13580 then i will put the trade back and on and get short again as idea 2 would likely be in the picture.

I suspect we have some sort of peak in place.

What is it part off?? well i am not going to divulge that information as that is for members, but suffice to say i think big things are about to happen in the US$ and the associated pairs.

Moves that could surprise many traders.

Interested in knowing where this pair and many other pairs are going next?

Come and join us and get your road map.

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

I believe there is an exciting setup now in this pair.

I have been working the triangle idea idea for a while now and its been working well, much to the disgust of bulls and bears, the whipsaw has been rather text book Elliott Wave.



Its worked out surprisingly well, but we are at a cross roads where a big choice will be made for this pair.

When we look at the short term structure it looks like a small ending diagonal (ED), as part of wave [E] of the larger wave 4.

Which as the patterns suggests is a terminal pattern.

The large weekly triangle is invalidated under 95.82, but we can also limit risk  to 96.25 as that's where the short term ED idea is invalidated, so the closer this moves to 96.25 then less risk you are exposed to.

So the risk is limited, the gain is potentially a strong break higher, considerably more than the risk.

An alternate set up i am also watching is what i call the "Da bull tri trap".  Where the upside will be limited and potentially setup for a move lower to test 92.00. (not shown as its reserved for members).

We wont know until we see the next course of events, but suffice to say i will adjust accordingly and members will be on top of the next big move in this pair.

Interested in following our ideas on this pair and other forex pairs we follow?

For $30 a month, it might just be the bargain you never thought possible, i don't charge silly prices, i try to accommodate the small trader, up to the institutional trader. All are welcome.

Sunday, June 23, 2013

Elliott wave Analysis of AUDUSD

From the high made in April 2013 there still appears to be a 5 wave looking decline

In a trending move a 5 wave sequence suggests to Elliotticians that the trend is mature and a correction is shortly due, although there are far more bearish alternatives, but such an event is rare and only akin to an event like 2008.

So unless there is a full blown crash setting up i suggest that traders that have been short this pair take some precautions as this pair could easily see a bounce to 0.9800-1.000.

I posted an idea i have been working on StockTwits http://stocktwits.com/message/13416574 (now you can see the benefits of following me on StockTwits)

It appears we have a 5 wave decline close to completing for wave A, although at the time i thought 0.9600 as a comfortable target, 0.9200 is a bit more than i figured but the markets do what they do and we simply follow.

There are 2 ways a 5 wave decline can be counted

So if a 5 wave decline is ending for wave A, then i would expect wave B to correct a good portion of wave A.

The trade to sell was back at 1.0200 once it broke down, the risk to continue selling is that you get trapped in a wave B short squeeze to the 0.9800 area

You can see the multiple divergences on the RSI, that's indicative of a potential 5th wave ending

So a minor new low needs watching and aggressive bullish traders can look for some evidence of a reversal higher, as i strongly suspect any squeeze that gets going to the upside will be fast and surprise the "late to the party shorts"

Saturday, May 4, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD

A small minor low here should complete a C wave of a flat pattern, which is likely ending a larger [X] wave and setting up a move towards 1.0700-800, so a good potential setup for a swing trade

I am really looking for support to be found around the 1.000, the 200DMA sits around that area as well.

For swing traders this is a great looking setup and the exact sort of setup that Elliott Wave traders thrive on.

So traders want to be actively looking for support on or above 1.000-1.0050

Saturday, April 27, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY (short term)

Update to the idea i posted last week http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/04/elliott-wave-analysis-of-usdjpy-short.html

It seems the bulls got trapped for the 3rd time, with everyone dead sure it was going to 100, the market generally does not make it that easy.

I was reading many traders getting long right into our sell target zone i highlighted in my last post.

It simply amazed me that many traders would even buy into a move just underneath the 100 area and looking for a few pips, when the risk as we have seen has been nasty if you were long looking for the same trade 99% of traders were looking at.

Its a good job we were looking lower and not caught out by the market making a trap.

Elliott Wave analysis nailed the move, whilst everyone looking higher we were looking lower.

There is the potential for some sort of temporary low in place, although it would need to see a strong break above the 98.75 area 1st, its a bit early to say a low is in place, but if any bounce is corrective and fails to get above 98.75 then, i suspect we will see more downside and a much more complex decline, one that could take this well under 95.00.

The move from 99.88 appears to be a corrective decline, so based on the next bounce, it will confirm if this is setting up for more downside, as if its a weak 3 wave corrective bounce that fails under the blue line, its not a good sign for the bulls.



Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

Whilst it remains under 13093 i am looking at 2 ideas for this pair, although at this current time i am not biased yet to any idea, as we are right between both ideas

Idea 1 - Suggests its currently in wave [d] of a triangle and probably head towards 12970 before a bounce in wave [e], then head lower towards 129-12875 (as shown in red)

Idea 2 - Currently in wave [iii] of a possible ending diagonal (ED) and form what technicians called a "bullish wedge" although Elliotticians call this an ending diagonal (as shown in black)

Suffice to say traders can look to sell this market if it pushes to around the 13050-60 area with limited risk to 13093

Both ideas rely on staying below 13093, its that simple.

Target 129-12875

Saturday, April 20, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY (short term)

Short term this pair looks like a 3 wave bounce from 95.78.

By definition a 3 wave move is correction, so the odds suggest, that we likely see this advance from 95.78 completely retraced, i am looking for a reversal early next week from the 99.50-100 area.

I think this setup will offer trader the chance to sell this pair, if you look at the other JPY crosses you can see the same 3 wave look, some pairs like NZDJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY show a weaker move than the USDJPY

I would also watch the RSI if we saw a minor new high into the target area. A strong break under 98.50 should help confirm a several in place.

My longer term ideas are reserved for members.

Thursday, April 18, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis EURUSD (short term)

With a clear 5 wave decline, I strongly suspect the advance we have seen over the last 2 weeks has ended

Its been a choppy advance and troubling to label, (most corrective structures are a problem) but the evidence of a potential US$ low is strong

As long as any bounce here is in 3 waves and stops under 13198 you have a setup to sell

Ideally a move to around 131-13120 in 3 waves is the target area, but it requires some sort of corrective 3 wave bounce

It may only get as far as 13080 before heading lower

I see evidence of a reversal in other US$ pairs such as the USDCHF and GBPUSD, so the US$ low that i  have been looking for this week, appears to be in place based on yesterdays price action

So more upside expected for the US$ and USDCHF (subject to corrections) and more downside for EURUSD and GBPUD (subject to corrections)

Lets say this is part of a larger correction, even still you have a simple setup, if a 3 wave bounce is seen, its a setup to sell, stops at 13198, target 12875

Sunday, April 14, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURJPY

If you look at the EURNZD idea i posted below, you can see the potential for an ending diagonal reversal, I thought i would show you an example of what happens with a low is in place and a strong reversal is seen from an ending diagonal

As the EURJPY pair pushed into wave [5] of C you can see the aggressive reversal as the market has compressed to a point where the sellers are exhausted and the market has nowhere to go but up (thats the wedge shape)

I strongly suspect the same on EURNZD, and a similar result should be seen, so looking forward this year i think EURNZD could be a setup much like EURJPY was last year.

Incidentally EURJPY has a 5 wave advance, so at minimum a 3 wave decline that could take it back to the 110-112 area is likely, which i suspect will align with a serious of "risk off" events across the globe

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURNZD

I have been tracking an ending diagonal idea for this pair since Dec last year, and its slowly coming into a potential low, although it needs a bit lower 1st, but it could be a serious upside reversal if a low can be found on a new low.

I noticed many Elliottcians labelling the low already in place, but one look at the structure should have told you that it needed a new low for a larger ending diagonal.

Now that its coming into a potential low, this is one pair that swing traders can monitor

1st Dec 2012

27th Dec 2012

14th Apr 2013

Although wave [5] of C could push towards the 1.49 area, the min objective that would be needed is a minor new low, and it could be a major low as well

This is a trade setup for traders that have time and margin, although i don't track this pair that much, i do watch a number of pairs on a weekly scale for members

Friday, April 12, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

I originally had 15350 penciled in for a target, and once we confirmed a new move higher had started from 14831, i was expecting to see a corrective structure (some sort of 3 wave advance)

Its morphed a little from the original idea, although its now at areas of interest where i think sellers will stamp on this pair

The advance appears corrective and i am labeling it as WXY correction, we can see the waves overlap each other, so its NOT impulsive, and it channels nicely, so i strongly suspect one this finishes its correction, a move back under 14831 will be seen

A strong break under 153 will be the 1st clue a reversal is taking place