Elliott Wave Training

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Showing posts with label GBP/USD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GBP/USD. Show all posts

Friday, January 3, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

Post taken from the forum

Please note i don't post "after the event" marketing shots to show you how good we are, we try to find trade setups like this everyday.

I see little point in showing you shots after the event, its just marketing, if you are going to post those sorts of shorts at least show the next set up. Unless someone can benefit in "real time" then its all marketing, only showing the ideas that work out.

Win, lose or draw, i put am confident in the ideas, to put the ideas out BEFORE the expected move and explain how to trade them. We know what we want to see, and we know where our risk is.

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The lack of a new low has forced me to adjust the initial start to a small LD for wave [i], thereby realigning the idea

The sideways price action is not fitting with the initial decline, so it appears we are now in a correction to the decline from 16602

I am looking for a reversal between 16470-16510, we know there is HUGE resistance at 16480

So a 3 wave bounce from 16409 into the 16470-16510 are can offer members to get short, stops need to be put at 16602

The key is that we need a 3 wave bounce from 16409, target towards 162 then 160


Sunday, December 29, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

The spike we saw last week could have possibly ended wave E of a large triangle (bearish idea) or wave [D] (bullish idea)

Usually when you see a move like we saw, that runs buy stops (above 13831 and 13850) and reverses back under the area where it rallied from, it generally marks a peak



So the evidence, whilst not conclusive, it does potentially suggest a peak and a move lower can be seen



Idea 1 suggests the large triangle that many Elliotticians are following, so its either finished wave E or close to finishing wave E

So in 2014 its going to be a nasty time for the EURUSD



Idea 2 suggest it can still see a pullback towards 128-130 but it will setup for a large move higher towards 155, that will suggest the US$ is going to pretty much crash

This idea actually aligns much better with my ideas Gold seeing a large move higher in 2014 back to $1500-1600

Due to the sideways range we have witnessed for the past 4 years (same as GBPUSD) there is no one pattern that stands out, its really all about the next large move lower, based on that structure will help confirm which idea is finally in control



We can clearly see where one goes, so will the other, i am still expecting some large moves in both pairs even if they stay in this range for another year, scaling down to the shorter term time frames we can easily find trade set ups

So if EURUD sees 120 GBPUSD should see sub 140

If EURUSD sees 155, GBPUSD should go to 170+

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

In my previous post,i showed a setup that i suggested to members to buy the dip with a target of 165

http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/12/elliott-wave-analysis-of-gbpusd.html

That target has now been reached, although there is the option of more upside whilst it remains above 16450

Its a deep pullback, larger than i would want to see, but if it can find some buyers above 16450 then i think this has the chance to see 166+

A strong break below 16540 would suggest a peak is in place and target 163 then 16220

You can count a 5 wave move from 16321, although the 5th wave is unusably large, it look more like its part of a 3rd wave as opposed to being a 5th wave.

16450 is a key area for both bull and bears


The bulls need to find some buyers quickly

Resistance at 16480

Long term ideas could suggest it might have ended (or close to ending) a large triangle over the past 4-5 years




With such a large range and the fact this pair has gone nowhere for nearly 5 years, traders need to focus on the 60 or 120 min charts for trade ideas, there have been plenty of opportunities if you know where to look

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

A setup that we are watching is to buy the pullback on this pair.

Stops need to be put at the last swing low at 16220, ideally this finds buyers between 16280-16320

You can see that buyers have stepped in already at the 61.8% retrace of the prior rally, but if a bit lower down, then i would expect buyers to support the market between 16280-163

Target 165+

So a nice risk/reward trade if you get the opportunity to buy nearer 163


Strong weekly support at 16280


Friday, April 12, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

I originally had 15350 penciled in for a target, and once we confirmed a new move higher had started from 14831, i was expecting to see a corrective structure (some sort of 3 wave advance)

Its morphed a little from the original idea, although its now at areas of interest where i think sellers will stamp on this pair

The advance appears corrective and i am labeling it as WXY correction, we can see the waves overlap each other, so its NOT impulsive, and it channels nicely, so i strongly suspect one this finishes its correction, a move back under 14831 will be seen

A strong break under 153 will be the 1st clue a reversal is taking place


Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD

The advance from 14831 is in 3 waves, so against the current down trend that is considered to be a correction, so the odds strongly favor once the correction is completed a new low under 14831 will be seen

Wave [c] appears to have ended as an ending diagonal  (ED), so staying under 15206 will keep the trend looking lower and what could be a "3rd of 3rd setting up




A strong break under 151 would help confirm that idea

Saturday, March 16, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBPUSD & GBPCAD (Short term)

Both GBPUSD and GBPCAD appeared last week to have traveled in a 5 wave bounce and i suspect a pullback in 3 waves would offer traders a setup for at least another move higher of similar length to the rally last week

GBPCAD

I was looking at this pair as a possible clue to a low in GBPUSD

As GBPUSD was nearing 148 i suspect it would find buyers and GBPCAD appeared to be thrusting out of a triangle, and once we had 5 waves i suspected would align nicely for a reversal in both GBPCAD and GBPUSD



It could not of gone any better






So a 3 wave decline early next week should offer traders a setup to buy a dip in GBPCAD with a stop at 15245

I suspect a dip should find buyers step up around 15330

Target 156

GBPUSD

148 was an area i was focusing on whilst it remained under 150, and sure enough it failed earlier to get back above 150, so the focus was for a low around 148, with the GBPCAD setup, it suggested that a reversal would be seen in GBP crosses

Sure enough that's exactly what happened, and like GBPCAD there appears to be a 5 wave advance, so a 3 wave dip to around 150 should offer traders a similar setup of buying the dip with stops at 14831


Target 15350





What was once support, should now be resistance, but still a decent upside move for the short term trader if it hits 15350 and a decent short term setup



Saturday, January 26, 2013

Elliott Analysis of GBPUSD

This pair has been working well for us, i noticed many traders on twitter and social media sites still trying to justify that this pair would rally higher, but they failed to notice the link between EURUSD and GBPUSD had broken down

I was quick to notice that, and whilst its a great edge when we have strong correlations, price is still king and you must respect what you see

Currently it still looks like it needs a bounce (under 159 is OK) then a new low, its on that low that i suspect we see a better bounce

I am still targeting the 157-15715 area for the end of wave [iii] or [c], then the next bounce should help us confirm if this pair is bearish as any bounce will be a 4th wave in the trend that started from 16378 and probably target around 15950

We have been using the 159-15950 area as a cluster to sell rallies, and i still think that will be the case until we see a 5 wave decline from 16378


You can clearly see the support area, like most times the markets simply travel from support to resistance, with the market firmly under the 200DMA it remains on a sell below 159, although i do expect the 157-15715 area to see a decent bounce, likely to be back to 15950 area for a suspected wave [iv]


So where does that leave traders on the long term ideas?

Where if GBPUSD actually put in a high and ended the long winded triangle, we would need to see a 5 wave decline, currently its only 3 waves, but it has the potential to become a 5 wave decline

If however it remains a 3 wave decline from 16378 and we saw an aggressive reversal back above 160, then it can suggest a move back above 16378 and target 168 to complete a large WXY correction

So this decline from 16378 is important as depending if its a 3 or 5 wave move will confirm the likely path going forward for the next 6-12 months


Either way i am expecting some great trading in this pair, as long as it moves i can count it, if i can count it members can make $$$

Sunday, July 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD



The decline from the April highs unfolded in a 5 wave decline, and what we have seen these past 4-5 weeks is a series of junk moves, which suggests, that the advance we have seen is a series of waves that should be retraced

There is a potential that the advance is completed, but it now needs to see some aggressive downside price action to help confirm the move, as i have also included an alternative (shown in blue)

Like all corrections you never really can predict with any certainly until most of the moves are in place, especially with one just as complicated as this.

Back when we were puking heavily into the June lows, i felt the markets had got too bearish on the GBPUSD and EURUSD pairs and a correction was needed to shake out that bearish sentiment

I wrote this on May 31st

Thats the target for wave [v] hit, but as the EURUSD is a little shy of gyrations, this might push lower towards 154-15450, but there is now a completed looking 5 wave move from 163, so a correction is potentially setting up, one that could see 50% of this decline, so 15850-160 is very possible

At minimum i would expect to see 157-15720 around the previous 4th wave


It actually overshot to 153s, as the EURUSD and DX markets were not ready to reverse

Well fast forward and we most certainly have shook out that bearish sentiment, so much that i have seen calls for 165 in the media

Funny what a near 500 pip move can do.

Yet i am very confident that once this correction is completed we will see this whole move from the June lows retraced

I was confident on the EURUSD and that move has been fully retraced, so i see no reason that this pair wont follow in the same foot steps

The structure suggests a corrective series of waves to the prior impulsive drop

A strong break under the red line will help the bears and attack the 153 support area over the coming weeks

If we see a strong bid above 156, then 158s are back in the frame as the alternative idea is being suggested

Saturday, June 16, 2012

Intermarket Analysis







Just before the turn, i mentioned to members that with a 5 wave move seen in virtually all the DX crosses (USDCAD, GBPUSD,EURUSD and USDCHF) a strong reversal was setting up

You could see a 5 wave move from the May 1st period, there was way too much bearishness around at the time on EURUSD and GBPUSD, and that needed to be eradicated


Well fast forward we are getting those bounces as predicated from the Elliott Wave pattern


The Bearishness has worn off, the Bears are coming out of hiding on the US$ (surprise surprise)


Yes those that were tracking the 5 wave pattern on the DX knew BEFORE that there was a big reversal looming for the US$ and to get out of shorts on GBPUSD and EURUSD, and longs on USDCHF and USDCAD


As a 3 wave correction was due, the result speaks for itself

Here is what i wrote on 30th May


"With a 5 wave move suspected on EURUSD coming to an end from May 1st, we also have what appears as a 5 wave move on GBPUSD, you can see how these have mirror each other, and opposite the DX and USDCHF markets"


Using the forex markets foretold of the bounce in US equity markets such as the DOW and SPX as "risk on" was back and the trend from the May 1st highs was over and needed a correction

Saturday, June 9, 2012

"Trade of the year" GBPUSD




You want a trade setup that potentially could yield a 1700-1300 pip move

This is it.

If my current Elliott wave count is correct, (i dont have any reason to think it wont work out) then any rejection from the target areas, can setup the monster of breaks lower in this pair and see a sizable move if the "granite floor" gives out .

If you are looking to follow this market then come and join us.

It costs $30 a month for forex analysis, there you get daily updates of the 4 major FX crosses we follow USDCAD, EURUSD,GBPUSD,AUDUSD, along with many others like NZDUSD, USDCHF, EURCAD etc (when setups arise)

Take up the 4 week trial, come check our services, make your own mind up and see if we are the "real deal or not

Friday, May 11, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD







Nice simple setup yesterday, me and members traders entry 16170 stops 162

Target 16060 or lower towards 160

Whats the daily count, do you need to know? NO

Simple ABC a 3 wave bounce to a measured 1x1 target, dont get any easier, legally stealing $$$

Saturday, April 14, 2012

GBP/USD Fractals (Elliott Wave)




As traders, actually humans we are a herd, we do the same things over and over again, so as patterns repeat,we can use those for potential setups, its the basic concept and the building blocks for Elliott Wave theory, although fractals often get overlooked

I am fan of looking at certain waves created from the past and mirroring those to project potential targets along with a valid Elliott Wave count

If the next sequence is setting up for this move (marked in red) we should be on the cusp of a big move lower, towards 152, although the initial support of the 200DMA and 157 will need to be broken as that is strong support

With a potential smaller H&S within a larger H&S, this really does make it an interesting pattern

You will note there are no Elliott Wave counts, i am just using symmetry

Of course it helps when you are tracking a valid wave count, as it builds a picture of evidence, as shown for the obvious wedge formation which we call an Ending Diagonal a very high probability pattern which yielded a great reversal as was expected

Simple Effective analysis

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD



This is a great example of text book Elliott Wave in action and if everything counted as clean as this i would have a very easy job

Friday, March 9, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD and EUR/USD


Looking at both these pairs together in conjunction with each other, it appears ideally that both need a pop higher as the current price action is a small 4th wave (suspected) then setup a reversal after a 5 wave move.

If the subsequent decline on both pairs is a 3 wave decline to support, it will suggest overall that the DX is still in trouble, as the crosses on the DXY that really shine through for the DXY ideas is the EUR/USD and GBP/USD due to the weighting

Friday, February 10, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of GBP/USD



From 15233 its been one impressive rally, and i think one to put in the record book, i don't recall many occasion's of seeing a 800+ rally in such a short span of time, but then the decline into that low was equally impressive

Is the high in place? well track back to a post i made for members on 14th Jan 2012

Targets were either 158 or on wards towards 162

Fast forward i find myself trying to decide if we are going to continue or fall short as a poss running flat, but with a suspected 5 wave advance i am now focused on trying to confirm if indeed the high is in as a correction or a complete retrace of the advance should be setting up, but the focus is at least a retrace towards 155

Either Elliott Wave count i suspect should be near a reversal