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Showing posts with label GLD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label GLD. Show all posts

Saturday, December 6, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (GLD) (Update)

A lot has gone on since my last article on GLD see here:


We found the low to wave 3 and looked for a bounce towards 120 for wave 4, as you can we pretty nailed that target for wave 4, whilst many were bullish at those highs we again turned bearish and started looking for wave 5 towards our 110 target which I have had for a while.

Again we found the low to that move and members were looking to buy at the exact time the world turned really bearish, so far that call has turned out to be correct.

The low so far is 109.51, considering we have been looking for 110 when GLD was at 129, i think its a great example of Elliott Wave used correctly.

Looking ahead we like the setup we have atm, whilst its above 110.90 I am still bullish, there is a strong bullish setup here if the market can hold around 113 - 114.50. A 3 wave pullback from the last swing high is a good sign and will support the idea of a strong rally higher.

Readers can look to buy the pullback against 110.90 stops. If the preferred idea works out, I think it could surprise most traders, just like it surprised most traders by rallying higher when it was at 110 back in November.

Are you ready to jump on the bull bus? It not too late.



Need regular updates on Gold? Come and join us, for $15 a month, you to could have access to charts like this.

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Saturday, September 27, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (GLD) (Update)

Update to this post http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2014/09/elliott-wave-of-gold-gld.html

Currently the market appears to be in wave 3 of [5] (alt idea is in wave D of the triangle). A closer look suggests its in a smaller degree 4th wave, so a bit more downside is needed to complete wave 3. My guess is around 115-116, then set up for a rally back to 120 before continuing lower towards its long standing target of 110.

Based on some of the Gold stocks and Gold stock indexes a great buying opportunity is setting up. Sentiment is at its worst, no one is interested in this sector, yet we are are looking forward to getting long the metals and Gold stocks. we like to "buy em when no one wants em".

Contrary to what others think, we simply follow our script and look to get members positioned for the moves, Forget what the perma bears are saying, the trend is likely coming to an end soon, and a great opportunity to buy is at hand for those that can control their emotions and ignore the "noise".

Whilst everyone can fight amongst themselves we at wavepatterntraders.com will be getting members ready for the rally that is going to setup and surprise most traders.

The time to buy is when no one is interested, Elliott Wave is not perfect, but its closest thing i have found to perfection and a great tool that if used in the right hands is a tool we can use to get positioned BEFORE the move.

Interested in getting positioned before the move and making $$$.

Take a trial here: http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/

Sunday, September 14, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (GLD)

This is an update to the prior posts (see blog).

Just to show readers that i don't always show the ideas that work out i am updating an idea that never worked out and to hopefully guide readers to the next direction of Gold.

The prior idea has been negated, so the question needs to be asked. Are we now in wave [5]? Or is it still in the wave [4] triangle? I cant say want to see this weakness so quickly, I would have preferred to see a better bounce then setup for a strong decline.

But the market always rules and we need to adjust and follow the market.

I have been targeting $1150 on Gold (17.50 on Silver) for a while, although how it got there was always going to be an issue, we have done really well with the swings on Gold over the last 12-16 months, although the last setup was a failed trade setup.

But rather than cry about it we simply need to adjust the ideas and try to understand where we are on our working map.

I suspect its still in wave D, although if Gold complete pukes under $1220 (approx 117.50-118 on GLD), I will likely concede that this is actually now in wave [5] and on its way to wards 110 which has been a long standing target for a while (Gold under 1150).

Once we see 5 waves from  the 2011 top, its then I will be come "raving" bullish, I have been one of the biggest bears on the planet, but if i see a completed 5 wave pattern from the 2011 highs i will be recommending that members start looking to buy Gold for a larger bounce. its then I will be turning bullish on a weekly time frame.

For now we are watching 118-117.50 for support to see if it buyers support the market, any bounce for wave E will likely fail around 126 before a move lower. A strong break of 117.50 will likely suggest this is already in wave [5].

Sunday, September 7, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (GLD)

This is an update to this post:  http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2014/08/elliott-wave-analysis-of-gold-gld.html

The decline still suggests the move from 129,51 is in 3 waves, furthermore if you look closely we can see a potential "wedge". Elliott wave calls this pattern an ending diagonal.

What is needed now is a strong break above 123 to suggest a low. So conservative traders can wait for a strong break above 123 (1280 on Gold) before getting long, then stick a stop under the last swing low. Aggressive traders can look to buy (its got risk) stick a stop at 119.59.

I still like this setup, it seems no matter where i go many traders are bearish, it reminds me of the low into 119.43, bearish traders were caught offside back then and i think they could be caught off side now.

As always, it comes with risk, but the risk is small now compared to the upside potential.

Edit: This idea has been negated, so as traders we simply need to respect the breakdown and adapt, it offered a limited risk setup, but when you are wrong you are simply wrong.

New ideas have been posted at www.wavepatterntraders.com

Saturday, August 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (GLD)

The move from 129.51 so far appears to be in 3 waves, (1345 on XAU/USD), as long as the move remain in 3 waves there is still a strong chance we see a move to target 130 again.

We have been using the same script on Gold for a few months and the range we are seeing still fits well for a large triangle which we suspect is a 4th wave.


At this stage i don't think wave E of the triangle is completed, if the short term decline from 129.51 remains as a 3 wave decline then there is still scope for a move back to 130.

The bulls need a strong break above 125 to suggest a move higher, short term a grind lower towards 121 is still possible but the bullish case rests on remaining above 119.43.

So it you are looking to get long Gold, then it maybe an idea to wait for a move above 125 first.

Overall i am still bearish and looking lower, but short term i am not convinced this is in wave [5] and targeting 110 or lower.

Although if we were to see 110 it will be a great buying opportunity, but i will worry about that later.

Friday, December 13, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of Gold (via GLD)

The market continues to move lower towards our targets, whilst its causing frustration to many traders, for us its been a great ride. Members have continued to stay on the right side of the trend, either selling rallies or staying to sidelines until a trade setup presents itself.

Suffice to say i am quite proud of the way i have navigated the gyrations for members, as long as members are happy that makes me a happy person.

I am still looking for the 110 area but a new low under the June lows would technically complete the move. with some missing gyrations i still don't feel a long term buying opportunity has presented itself yet, although when the time comes members will be the 1st to know when i recommend we get long Gold.

Yes you read the right "get long and buy Gold"

What i find ironic is that i am now receiving mail telling me  i must be crazy to want to buy a "train wreck" (that was the best description i read)

Gold top

HUI top

I need to remind readers back in 2011 i was looking for a major top on HUI and Gold, i was getting the same sort of mail back then telling me i was nuts and crazy to be looking for a top,"don't stand in front of the freight train"  funny how sentiment has changed.

Now you cant find a Gold bull in sight (well apart from us). The lower this moves the more bullish i become.

When things are on sale in a supermarket, you see queues 2 miles long, yet when things are on sale in the markets, people run away. I never can work that out.

Decide if you want to be buying low when its nice and cheap. (subject to patterns and setups)


Follow the bag holders and buy high and sell low, its your choice.

Members of WPT will likely be buying when most are probably selling. But then we like to buy when no one want to hold them, and sell when everyone wants them.

As long as we come out on top its all good.


A look at GLD suggests the same idea as i am working on GC.

So a bit lower down towards 116 should end wave [v] of the larger wave 3 then setup for a bounce in wave 4 to around 122 before moving lower in wave 5 to under 114 and target the 110 area.

For now, continue to look lower under 120, as we are in a series of 4th waves, things can get a bit messy, i will adjust as needed ONLY if the current idea gets invalidated, but remain bearish under 120.

If this is the sort of analysis you are after then take a test drive.

For $9.99, decide if its right for you.

Sign up and put yourselves on the right side of the market, i cant promise you the earth, but i can promise you i will do my best to make sure members are on the right side of the trend.

Sunday, November 3, 2013

Before & After GOLD & GLD

Another easy idea, some members traded the actual Gold spot price, as we KNEW BEFORE where the idea was wrong. That was at $1365.92

Other members could have traded GLD, it made no difference the idea was the same.

The result speaks for itself.

Risk $9-10, Reward $40-50. Target was $1300-1310

Please note the price when the trade was presented to members.

Price now $1315, some members took their $$$ on Friday as it hit our target area, now looking for the next trade setup.

Job done, take the $$$ sit back and wait on the next idea.

Say no more, another simple easy trade for members, those that understand price and patterns are killing this market.

Still think we are not worth $15 a month??  (Price of the commodities package).

Oh well your loss, members will just keep making the $$$ while others keep losing it.

Friday, November 1, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GLD (update)

I have been uninitiated with emails asking for an update.

I don't generally do requests, but i will make an exception, considering i did a post yesterday, as i put my time and effort in to the main site, i have many other markets i have to watch over and update.

Anyhow here goes:

Its hit the target, and impressive move to stay the least, but if you have been watching the US$ or even EURUSD as a proxy, you can see why

The US$ aka DX is killing US$ linked markets such as Gold, Silver EURUSD &GBPUSD etc

USDCHF is getting a bid as well.

I suspect its close even if the idea in blue for a bounce, forex pairs like EURUSD and GBPUSD are at strong support, so a bounce to correct  this decline will or i should say "should be seen"

If the bullish case is happening, we are nearing a reversal and rally hard above $129.35

However the "look" appears to be more bearish than i initially thought, so if we ONLY see a weak crappy bounce, and it fails to get above 128-128.20, then i strongly suspect the idea in blue, then more downside.

So GLD at $128 aligns with Gold spot to around $1335

US$ is back to resistance, Gold is coming into natural support at $1300, i do expect a reaction there.

Thursday, October 31, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GLD

This is a follow up to a chart i posted on Stock Twits

See here: http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_16838429.png?1382971322

It appears that its pulling back, i am targeting towards the previous 4th wave at 126.57, the 50% retracement area is also a good spot at 126.14.

I think its probably going to be a messy decline, but as long as it shows the characteristics of a corrective decline, then we should find support around 126-126.50.

Short term, traders can look lower under 131, a strong move above 131 is a bullish sign.

Monday, October 21, 2013

Gold Stocks Index (NUGT & DUST) Elliott Wave Analysis

This is an update to my last post dated 15th Oct 2013.


I cautioned the bears on Gold stocks that a bounce was likely setting up, i was seeing negative sentiment, as well as the set up on DUST and on HUI.

The actual set up on DUST and $HUI was key for me, there was too many DUST bulls on Stock Twits. proclaiming  this was "too easy"

When sentiment gets like that, alarm bells need to be ringing.

It appears that was the case

DUST Before:

DUST After:

The decline from the last high appears to be in 3 waves so far, so we want to see a new low to make it a 5 wave decline.

That will be a negative sign for the DUST bulls, although once a 5 wave decline is seen we should see a bounce in 3 waves to correct the decline, followed by more downside.

Any short term bounce i suspect is wave [iv], so requires to remain under $38.70.

But we can also watch the same idea on both NUGT and GLD.

Although i actually prefer to count on the underlining market as i find these 3xETFs have to much skew and don't always align 1-1 with the market they are meant to be tracking.

So the trade is to look to sell a bounce on DUST stops at $38.70.


Or you can buy NUGT above $42.47 (its wrong below the blue line) and target a move above the last swing high to around $49.00.


Alternatively you can just play it via GLD.

 A dip to around $125.50 would be ideal stops need to be at $124.38 as that would be a rule violation if wave [iv] moved below the top of wave [i].

Target 128.50

If we were to see a 5 wave move on both NUGT and GLD, that would be bullish sign (5 wave decline on DUST).