Elliott Wave Training

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Showing posts with label Gold Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Gold Stocks. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of GG, ABX, NEM, BVN, KGC, GFI, GOLD, HUI, GDX, XAU, HMY, SSRI

Being the season of good will, as a good will gesture, i have decided to make this months Gold stocks report free to readers.

Simply click on the link to download the PDF

Have a wonderful new year everyone, see you in 2014

http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/ElliottNewsletter/Gold%20Stocks%20Report%20Update%20%20free%20report%2031-12-2013.pdf

Monday, November 25, 2013

Market Report: More Downside Likely in Gold

 Original article http://www.safehaven.com/article/31906/market-report-more-downside-likely-in-gold


Since my last report some 5 month ago see here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/30253/market-report-gold-to-go-to-700-or-3000 the market appears to have made its intentions of more downside.


This chart was in that article, and you can clearly see that our line in the sand was $1450.
I also wrote this:

"The bear case suggests the market is about to start to accelerate lower in what Elliotticians call a "3rd of 3rd", so we are unlikely to see a strong break above $1400-1425 and any bounce will be corrective and more downside is expected."

The actual downside was further than I initially thought, but the resultant bounce failed to get above our line in the sand at $1450 and subsequently rallied in a corrective structure, thus has likely confirmed the bearish case of more downside and a test of the $1180 area towards $1150, although I have adjusted the idea a little, I am still expecting a test $1150 before we see a stronger bounce back to the $1400 again.

Hopefully by the time we see under $1180 the media will be freaking out and probably have the likes of Peter Schiff on for a media appearance, maybe even mocking him. (Good sign that a low is near)
If you look back to the time when Gold put in the lows at $1180 the media did an interview with Peter Schiff and were mocking him for his Gold call.

When the media is in a state of panic and freaking out, when Gold bulls are being mocked that's usually the time a market turn is close.

Currently Gold is still on a sell on all time frames under $1293, there are a few ideas I am watching.

One idea is a triangle for wave 4 of [3]. I would need to see a reversal above $1293 to start to look at other options but suffice to say, failing to see a move above $1293 suggests more downside and target under $1180.

Whilst it's been some time since I last wrote about Gold. Members at WPT have been trading the swings as usual with some members making great profits, with the help of our Elliott Wave maps, it has clearly aided members, week after week members have known where Gold was likely going regardless of the FOMC meetings in between. For $15 a month some members have expressed it's the bargain of a lifetime.

Gold Daily Chart 2
Larger Image


Short term charts will need to continue with the downside from here, a quick acceleration would really scare many Gold bulls, and if I could chose I would like to see a scary spike lower and really "stick" it to the bulls, thereby pushing lower towards our targets under $1180.

XAU Chart
Larger Image


AUY (Yamana Gold)

This stock appears to be close to setting up for a buying opportunity, with all the negativity in the media and even on financial websites, it seems the love is almost gone for Gold stocks, that's the sort of negativity I thrive on and like to see when I am looking for a low in a market.

As they say, "you should be buying when you crying, selling when you are yelling"

Yamana Gold Cart
Larger Image


I suspect this is now in a final 5th wave and close to ending the trend that started from the 2012 peak. Having retraced over 50%, it's now that I think it offers a great potential buying opportunity.

I am closely watching this stock, when I think its close I will be informing members and readers of the Gold stocks news letter to the potential buying opportunity and set up. It appears that wave 5 could be a small ending diagonal (ED). If so we should see a small wedge, that's a great clue that the trend is exhausted and ready to set up for a reversal to the upside.

Gold Stocks Newsletter

I have been closely watching many Gold stocks for members; slowly I have amassed a large number that I decided to produce a report each monthly for members, which on its own can be purchased for $20 a month see here: http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/topic/1818-gold-stocks-report-gg-abx-nem-bvn-kgc-gfi-gold-hui/page__pid__53287#entry53287

It is however free and available for downloading to members of both the US stocks section and commodities section.

I see some great opportunities for both Gold and Gold stocks, whilst the trade this year has been sell Gold and Gold stocks, in fact anything Gold related, buy US stocks, I believe based on where the US stock markets reside and where many Gold stocks are with respect to their Elliott Wave patterns, things are about to get really shaken up and a complete reversal of the trade we have been seeing the past 12 months is going to be seen.

What I mean is we could see a complete 180 of that trade. Gold and Gold stocks move higher, US stocks and equities move lower.

Ask yourselves this question?

What is going to offer you value, GOOG at $1000 and near a potential top? Or any of the battered Gold stocks that are 50-70% off their peaks.

The situation we have in the US markets reminds me of the peak around the 2000 top.
SPX versus Gold and HUI Chart

If you look at the chart we can clearly see Gold stocks started their moves higher as US equities moved lower.

I strongly suspect we are setting up for something similar again. The situation we have today is completely different to what we had in 2008. Gold stocks have already crashed so they are limited to the downside, if anything, a move lower in US equities I suspect could ignite a move back into Gold and Gold stocks as a possible fear trade. It remains to be seen if that is the case.

I think the bulls are close to getting close to ramming their horns right through the buttocks of the bears. Based on the readings of their patterns, I think many of the Gold stocks are very close to setting up for some substantial and tradable moves.

Remember "It's always the darkest before dawn"

Dawn is fast approaching on Gold and Gold stocks.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.

Sunday, October 20, 2013

Gold Stocks Report (Updated)

The next updated report is available for purchasing (members get it for free, it will be posted in HUI forum).

If you never purchased the 1st report, then in order to purchase the current updated report as well as the previous reports (I will send both so it helps with the ideas).

You will require to go to select the Gold stocks report option (look right) for $20.00.

Once I receive your payment I will send your reports to the email address that is on your purchase statement (please check your spam or trash folder).

If you have already purchased the first report last month, then you can purchase the updated report for a reduced price of $10, that’s a saving of $10.

You don’t have to purchase the report, you can wait and purchase any additional reports when you feel it necessary, but any further reports will still be the same reduced price.

Simply select the option of "Updated Report" for $10.

However I will require you to forward me evidence of a prior purchase, if you can’t supply me an invoice, then I will not accept your order; you will require to purchase any order at the full price.

The reason why I ask for evidence or a prior purchase, is to stop anyone trying to purchase a report for the 1st time at a reduced price.

Stock included are: Gold Corp (GG), Barrick Gold (ABX), Newmont Mining (NEM),

Compania De Minas Buenaventu (BVN), Kinross Corp (KGC), Gold Fields (GFI), Randgold (GOLD) and analysis of the $HUI.

I have also added additional analysis of SSRI $XAU, GDX and Harmony Gold (HMY)



The PDF is actually larger than the 1st report at 17 pages.

Regards

Jason Soni (aka Nouf)

Sunday, June 30, 2013

Market Report: Low in for Gold Stocks?

$HUI

I have been tracking a potential 5 wave decline in Gold stocks to help me also find a low in Gold

Fridays reversal in both the $HUI and Gold was an encouraging sign for the bulls and whilst its only a 1 day move, it has the potential for something much more.

Off the lows we don't yet have a small 5 wave move, but its encouraging to see a decent reversal, every turn starts out with the not many believing the market has turned, but when i can count a market having made a 5 wave completed sequence, i go into DEFCON mode looking for evidence a potential reversal.



The reason i was holding off suggesting to members to buy Gold and Gold stocks was the lack of evidence of a completed 5 wave decline in the $HUI.

But now we might have some evidence to suggest the trend from the Sept 2012 high (530) is over and a strong counter trend rally is under way, one that could possibly take the $HUI back to the $350 area.




Short term we need to see a small 5 wave advance, followed by a small 3 wave pullback, that will offer traders the chance to get long with limited risk.


So rather that "take a stab" at the low, we have a controlled setup that we want to see before we put $$ to work, whilst many others have been completely wrong footed by this decline.

I have been recommitting to members to stay well away from Gold and Gold stock until we have a completed 5 wave decline in place, we now have some evidence to suggest we could have a strong setup for a trade able move.

ABX

If you are aware of the component makeup of the HUI, you will be aware then that Barrick Gold is a large component of the $HUI, in fact its number 2 in the weighting of the HUI, so it pays to watch other stocks and their relative Elliott Wave counts.







The monthly chart of ABC suggests wave [3] of a larger wave C is close if not completed, with the evidence shown last week, there is a strong evidence a low could be in place

With a decent bounce expected on the HUI based on its wave count, that should also align nicely with a bounce to around $20-25 on ABX, before new lows would be expected and finally completing long term patterns.

With Gold stocks probably one of the most hated investment vehicles around and a wave structure that looks complete, it makes for a low risk setup for a decent profitable trade, to those that have waited for the conditions to align.

Its times like these, that the if the conditions dictate, we need to rise in the face of fear and buy when not many are interested, i find the most profitable trades are when i go against the majority of the crowd, that's not to say we just fade the crown at any point, we still need a certain number of things to align.

A i write this, those conditions appear to be in place to offer a low risk setup, with minimum risk, the reward could be a substantial trade if it works out the way i suspect it will.

One day does not confirm a reversal, but we have to start somewhere.

Until next time

Have a profitable week ahead




Sunday, May 26, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of NEW (Newmont Mining Corp)

The monthly chart is now coming into some decent fibbo support, the decline from the Nov 2011 highs has matched the prior decline from the 2005-2008 move.

So just based on history it can suggest a low is close by, its already met a 78.6%  fibbo retracement, much like the retracement back in 2008.



Furthermore the point at which wave [C] = [A] is close by as well.

Short term there looks to be a few waves missing and i suspect we could still target that [C] = [A] area around $28.45.

It appears to still need waves [iv] & [v] of wave 3 then a bounce in wave 4.

A bounce for wave 4 of [C] should stay under the blue line, but ideally around $36.00, then head lower for wave 5 of [C].

As long as it stays under the blue line, then wave 4 should chop around under that area and head lower to target $28.45.

Its at that point i suspect a low risk buying opportunity will be setting up, although there are still a few opportunities for the short term trader that is flexible enough.




Sentiment is probably matching the sentiment back in 2008, Gold stock have fell out of love with investors and traders. although its natural to feel like that, everyone loves stock at the highs, but never at the lows.

Yet in order to make profits you need to be buying when its nice and cheap, but this is where i firmly Elliott Wave can help ups find some entries to get long this stock when the time come to "jump in".