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Showing posts with label Market Report. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Market Report. Show all posts

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Market Report: Dow Industrials Top in Place?

To answer that question truthfully, its way too early to confirm the answer to that question. I have posted previously there is still a bullish wave count that suggests a possible move to 14000 before it moves higher and  targets 17000 - 19000, but to those traders that are flexible and can trade both sides of the trend there is plenty of $$$ to be made for those that can find the right set ups.

My last few articles have been prepping readers for a potential setup for a large decline, so far its not disappointed, many members caught a large percentage of the decline, although we were watching a couple of ideas this past week that suggested a rally was due and after 2 attempts we caught the lows last week, so traders made $$$ from the upside as well

Traders that are flexible and have the right setups are making serious $$$, as the swings we have seen recently are a traders best friend, although you still need to find the right setup.

Anyhow back to the setup in hand.

If you have not been involved on the short side like some members have, then you may have another chance later, but short term this appears to be inside an upwards correction to correct the decline


From 16523 it appears to be a 5 wave decline, so I suspect we can see a large bounce to correct the decline, a 3 wave bounce that remains under 16523 is a setup to sell, so readers that are interested in looking to sell this market need to wait for the market to set itself up.
 

Whilst its never a foregone conclusion that we are going to see more downside, if the market has put some sort of peak, then I still think we at least see a move back to 14000 or lower.

So if the idea shown sets up, you have a low risk setup to sell, limited risk with a potential target towards 14000.

If the idea is wrong then its a small loss and live to fight another day, but the key to this idea is to see a 3 wave bounce NOT a strong impulsive move that going crazy to the upside, there is a clear setup we are looking for.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead

Sunday, January 26, 2014

Market Report: Dow Crashes 450 in 2 Days

Anyone reading that headline would think it's some sort of surprise to most traders that the markets crashed 450 points in 2 days, but for us a wavepatterntraders.com we have been looking for a reversal in the markets for a few weeks and it was only a matter of time before things reversed. So it's no surprise to us, it was expected and I expect much more if a top is in place.

Is this the start of the large move lower that I am expecting? Well to answer that question honestly, it's too early to say, but regardless of the answer, what we can say for sure is that if it is the start of something sinister, we will be riding it lower.

In my last few articles I left readers with the idea of a potential JPY carry trade reversal. The analysis holds true today as it did the end of last year. I am a big believer that if the JPY carry trade unwinds, we will see much more downside in the markets, it will make last week look like a picnic, if the markets have indeed topped out as we expect they have, then its only just getting started. I urge all bullish traders and investors to pay attention to the JPY carry pairs, particularly USDJPY, those that understand the drivers of the market should be fully aware that the past 12 months it's the JPY carry trade that has helped stocks push to current levels.

Just as the markets move higher due to the borrowing of JPY, they can easily reverse lower as margin calls get called in as the selling forces more and more sellers to cover those margin calls. It's a self-fulfilling spiral that once it gets going is very difficult to stop until the sellers have been washed out.

SPX long Term

Preferred Idea

SPX Long term Preferred Count Chart
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I have posted this chart before, but as a recap I will post it again. If the trend from the March 2009 lows is only a 3 wave move, then the likelihood is that it's a B wave of a possible expanded flat pattern.

For those traders that argue that the March 2009 lows will never be seen again, I merely suggest you check the history of the markets, 2 examples are the 1966-1974 bear market, the market made a new high in 1973 and then made new lows, the other example which many investors are probably aware was the decline from 2000-2003, which made a new all time high in 2007, then subsequently crashed under the 2002/3 lows.

I think it's very naive to outright say there is no chance that the US markets can't revisit the March 2009 lows.

Look at it like this, when Gold was at $1900, I bet many thought it was a sure bet 100% that Gold was going to $2000, so at the time if you said Gold seeing $1180 was a possibility most Gold investors would have laughed in your face, 2 years on and Gold investors are not exactly pleased.

Put yourself in the position of those Gold investors, do you think that US stocks will be going up indefinitely?

And there is no chance of a move lower?

Bullish Alternative Idea

SPX Long term Bullish Alternative Count Chart
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Even if I am wrong and this will end up being a 5 wave impulse from the March 2009 lows, that still implies we will see a 4th wave pullback, so a large move back towards Dow 14500, SPX 1550 should be seen. Do you really want to be caught holding the bag and suffer a pullback to 1550SPX?

Short Term

SPX Dhort-Term Chart
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The 1st bearish clue would be a 5 wave decline from the highs; Friday's mini crash suggests it's still inside a small 3rd wave, so we want to see a 4th and a 5th wave to complete a 5 wave impulse wave, if that is seen it will be a strong clue of a trend change, the minimum target would be 1550SPX.

Whilst we don't have any crystal balls we do have a mine in the sand, if the market continues lower as we expect then we will look to see the bounce for a 4th wave and look lower for a 5th wave, then we should see a corrective 3 wave bounce as shown.

All is not as it seems

If you look around the globe and "under the hood" you can see all is not as is seems, whilst some US markets have made new all time highs, that can't be said for many other markets.

XLF

XLF Chart
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If you look at the XLF we can clearly see that it's lagged the SPX and by any criteria you want to choose in my book that's a bear market rally. We can clearly see it's a 3 wave bounce, so by definition it's a corrective bounce in Elliott wave terms, furthermore it's virtually met its measured move target where [C] = [A].

SPX versus XLF Chart
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Not exactly screaming a bull market is it?

We think the XLF could be a great set up to sell, if it's just put in a peak, and topped, then I am expecting a strong move lower. That's one sector I suggest readers watch for weakness.

NYSE

NYSE Chart
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The NYSE is a very important US market and is often over looked, but as we can clearly see its only "just" tested its Oct 2007 highs, if that's a simple double top, then we could be on the verge of a strong move lower, again another market I think investors and traders should be watching.

Do you notice the look? It appears to be in 3 waves and only just above the measured move target where [C] = [A], so whilst the SPX and DOW have got all the headlines if you look around thins are not what they seem.

Around the world

What about other markets that "used" to closely follow the US markets?

CAC40

CAC 40 Chart
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That sure looks like a 3 wave bounce to me, if you are an Elliottician and reading this, I will gladly debate the merits of a potential 5 wave move from the March 2009 lows, because I can't find a way to label that even remotely as a potential 5 wave impulse wave, it's a clear 3 wave move, so in Elliott wave terms a corrective bear market rally.

Incidentally we think this a great market to look to sell and if we can count a small 5 wave decline from the highs then we have a strong clue of a trend reversal, I am targeting 2500, so plenty of downside.

There are many other markets and stocks that suggest the move from the March 2009 is a 3 wave bounce, a 3 wave move is important to Eliotticians as it suggests it's a counter trend bounce.

So you are probably thinking, well you have just picked the markets to curve fit your bias. Why don't you pick a market that has made new all time highs?

Let's do that, what about the DAX, is that ok with you?

DAX

DAX Weekly Chart
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Do you notice the look; it sure looks like a 3 wave move to me. Do you see a 5 wave move there? Furthermore it is only just above the measured move target where C = A.

So whilst it's made a new all time high, it can be considered a B wave of an expanded flat pattern and if the pattern is correct we should see a strong move lower.

DAX Monthly Chart
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I have been targeting this box area for a few months, but if the DAX fails to continue higher and we see a closing print under the top of the box, I would consider that as a bearish sign, especially if we see a bearish candlestick such as a shooting star or a bearish engulfment, on a monthly scale that's a strong signal.
Now let's look at what is happening in Europe.

DAX versus CAC and EURSTOXX Chart
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The CAC and EURSTOXX50 sure don't look like a bull market to me, what do you think?
So having followed each other for years, we finally see a divergence between the DAX and the rest of Europe; I would say that's a pretty convincing statement to say something is wrong with the move in the DAX.

Whilst we will trade the markets both long and short, when you look at the bigger picture around the rest of the globe, both in stocks and other closely linked markets, it sure don't look like a bull market in many other sectors and world markets.

If you are interested in trading with a bunch of traders that don't drink the "cool aid" and looking to actually find trades to make $$, try us out, we offer a trial now for $9.99 for 1 week, if you don't like the site, you have no future commitments.

We are traders that trade for a living, not newsletter writers that have no "skin in the game" when we make mistakes we loss $$ just like you. You can rest assure no matter if its stock futures, forex or commodities we will always find something to trade with clear risk/reward trade.

Conclusion

The markets potentially have a peak in place, the evidence last week was encouraging for the ideas we have been using, however we need to see a 5 wave decline 1st from the all time highs, until we have that we don't yet have a strong clue of a trend change, if we do see more downside, it's likely to be much larger move that many think, with so many traders now addicted to buying the dip, Its sure to surprise a few traders, as it did last week.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Market Report: Clues From The Dow Industrials

In my last article I was looking for a reaction from the 1750SPX area. The continuation of the move higher has again forced me to reconsider other ideas.

In my last article, I was initially looking at a possible ending diagonal on the SPX (bearish wedge to non Elliotticians) but as I re-evaluated price structure in the other main US markets it became much clearer that the pattern in the SPX was not an ending diagonal as I initially thought, but some sort of ugly unorthodox flat pattern.

Although technically the ending diagonal pattern is still valid, but in light of the evidence in other US markets I decided to adjust the pattern to reflect the ideas on the Dow Industrials as well as the Dow Composite.

Bearish Idea

The move off the March 2009 lows currently counts best as a 3 wave move; I can count a 3 wave move, which in my opinion is very close to a reversal.
SPX Chart
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Since my last article the SPX has moved just over 50 points, however the angle of the advance looks wrong for the previous ending diagonal idea. As I mentioned earlier, the patterns on the Dow industrials and Dow composite show a much clearer idea, which I think are important clues.

The SPX is slowly coming into a fibbo price time target I have been following. But without a reversal clue, this grind can push higher than the bears can stay solvent. Although we have been following the short term charts higher, it's now I think once again that a possible reversal can be seen, it's this area that an important reaction could be seen.

You can read the rest here:  http://www.safehaven.com/article/31974/market-report-clues-from-the-dow-industrials

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Market Report: A Good Start But More Needed

In my article 2 weeks ago, I was looking for a top in the US stock markets. Since that article we have a seen a decent reversal and one that potentially has confirmed a peak is in place, although technically speaking we don't yet have a 5 wave decline in place from the all time highs, but the potential for such an important clue (important to Elliotticians) is serious enough to consider the US markets could well have put in an important peak.

DOW

We went into the week after that last article with a potential setup for a reversal, although I did not post this chart in that article, it was one of the clues I mentioned that suggested a peak was close by.

Dow Jones Chart
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This chart was on Fridays close being the 2nd of August. The DOW made an all time high, if you remember back 2 weeks ago, the world was all giddy with delight about the DOW making record highs.

However I was not impressed, in fact I was more bearish than I have been of late, seeing such a pattern suggested we needed to be looking for a reversal, as I spoke about in that article 2 weeks ago.

I was working a pattern Elliotticians call an ending diagonal, and with the new spike high we had enough price action to consider a potential top in place and that set the tone for a reversal on Monday, some members went into the weekend short, although we never had any confirmation of a reversal signal until it dropped under our key support zone we was watching, but based on the larger pattern as well as this short term chart, it made sense to be looking for a top, just as most were celebrating the DOW making a new all time high.

Kind of ironic, the majority of the trading community bullish and we were mega bearish, but I find my best ideas come from fading the crowd, especially when I see a set up that suggests a reversal, I have done that at tops and bottoms many times over the years.

The setup on the DOW was too good of a setup not to recommend to members to look at ways to get short the US markets.

Fast forward and that chart looks like this.

Dow Jones Chart 2
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As I wrote earlier, we don't yet have a 5 wave advance in place, but the potential for one is there, I suspect a smaller wave [iii] is close to ending, so a small bounce in wave [iv] to around 15200 could be seen Monday/Tuesday before heading lower in wave [v], that would then complete a 5 wave decline from the all time highs.

I am working 2 ideas on the daily time frame, and depending on the reaction around 14000-14500 will suggest if the market needs to come back and retest the all time highs and print a move to 15700, or the top is in and we just witnessed a major high in place.

However I am not looking that far ahead as I still need to see a small 5 wave decline from the all time highs to have some confidence of a peak in place.

Should the market decide to adopt a different script, we will of course have to adjust our ideas, but until the market negates the ideas I will stick with what is working.

I use Elliott Wave to look for ideas to help members make $$$, we trade 1st count 2nd, we are more interested in making $$$ not looking for the "hero" call.

NDX/QQQ

We went into the week looking for a peak and a breakdown in the NDX although the QQQs had started to show more strength than the other markets, I noticed the DOW was the weaker market and the SPX was not much better, but the NDX was still firm, which was causing me some issues, and at one stage I was considering the DOW and SPX potentially making a new all time highs, however like all good set ups, things eventually cleared us for us, and the NDX showed its hand.

NDX/QQQ Chart 1
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I posted this idea for members in the week, to non Elliotticians it probably don't mean a lot, but to those of us that study Elliott Wave it was a massive clue for us, and one that finally had us looking for a peak.

As the NDX made a new yearly high and multi-year high, the media was again celebrating this fact, but we on the other hand were looking at something totally different, we were getting bearish just as most were bullish.

The pattern is a triangle, and I was looking for a "thrust higher", once that "thrust" was in place, I was confident we would see a reversal. It could not have worked out better.

NDX/QQQ Chart 2
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With the SPX and DOW failing to make the new highs, it set the stage for a reversal in all the US Stock markets.

Again if the NDX/QQQs have put in an important high, we need to see a 5 wave decline, it's not completed a 5 wave decline yet, but the potential like the SPX and DOW is enough to take it seriously if we do see more downside.

The weekly chart can suggest something really bearish has just finished, although that is the furthest thing from my mind at the moment. I am more interested in trying to confirm a 5 wave decline in the US markets.

SPY

SPY Chart 1
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I posted this chart to my Stock Twits account, so it was a freebie for those that follow me, and those that took notice could have traded an nice 30-40 point move on the SPX, even 20 or 30 points is a good move and good $$ if you trade the right set up.

We knew where the idea was wrong and a 3 wave bounce would have offered a setup to sell, with risk defined, there was no second guessing, we had a clear guideline of where the idea was wrong.

Many members made in excess of 25 ES points, at $50 a point that's $1250 a contract, even if you traded puts as some members did, I am sure the gains were more than the monthly fee of $20. Probably even more than the yearly fee.

If things have just got started and my preferred daily idea works out the way I suspect, we can see 1500 on the SPX in no time at all, that's a few points to those that are interested in making $$$.

SPY Chart 2
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The chart of the SPY looks similar to the DOW, so we still need to see a 5 wave decline, but a small bounce for wave [iv], then a new low, will complete a 5 wave move from the all time highs and potentially suggest an important peak is in place.

I will leave it there for this week.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/30819/market-report-a-good-start-but-more-needed

Monday, February 25, 2013

Market Report: It Has Started

Well not quite, but it's very possible now a high is in place. In last week's I was looking for a push higher to test the prior highs. We have been tracking an ending diagonal for the past few weeks, only the trouble with that pattern is they have a tendency to morph and waste time.

Last week

SPX Chart
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It's the time wasting as it forms the wedge shape that frustrates traders, until a point it breaks hard and almost all traders are not aware what has happened.
When markets are like that I strongly encourage members to look at other markets, with over 25 markets
that we follow a decent idea is never far away.

SPX Chart
Larger Image


Well we finally got what appears to be the break we were expecting, and we even followed it lower to cover our shorts on the end of a 5 wave move.

If the bounce remains under the prior swing high at 1531SPX, we are looking to put shorts back on for what I expect will be a strong breakdown towards 1450SPX.

With our risk known, it offers a higher reward for a small risk, exactly the sort of trades that I encourage members to take, I think if the market fails to see a strong break above 1520SPX, it should setup for a decent move lower, having put in a 5 wave decline it's a strong start that a peak is in place.
As always we use stops and know our risk before we put the trade on.

ES

As mentioned above, some members trade the ES, so we have almost 24hr coverage of the markets. If members want an update as to the ideas, they can come into the chat room and ask questions or see the latest ideas in the forums. With the extensive range we trade there is always a market for everyone.
Some members, including myself were short the ES well before the move as we knew the risk to the idea was just under 1540SPX, so using the ideas on the SPX for risk control on the ES.
I was personally short from 1517-20ES as suggested in our swing trades service, so members had the ability to follow my personal trades.

Read the rest here:  http://www.safehaven.com/article/28924/market-report-it-has-started

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Market Report: Bulls Back in Town?

Firstly I want to wish readers and members a happy New Year for 2013 and look forward to making more successful trades with members, even more than we did in 2012 as I think 2013 is going to start out with a bang, and if my long term ideas plan out the way they have so far, then we are going to be seeing some very large swings in both directions. What you saw this past week or so is nothing, I suspect we will be seeing moves like we saw in 2007-2008.


ES

The past 10 days we have seen crazy swings in both directions, from the flash crash that saw a 50 handle spike down, to Monday's impressive near 40 handle rally.

Regular readers of my work will be aware that I have been looking for a move in the DOW and SPX to exceed their respective September 2012 highs. It's because I have missing pieces of the jigsaw puzzle that I refuse to give up and pin the market having a top in place as some bears have done.

Aside from the fact the decline from the September high into the November low is a 3 wave decline, but I covered that issue in my last article so I won't cover that again in this article.

Now as I pointed out in my last article some markets have made new highs above their September 2012highs, such as the XLF, NYSE, DAX & Value line index etc. But seeing major markets such as the SPX fail to exceed those September highs, has kept me looking for a move in the SPX above 1474.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/28236/market-report-bulls-back-in-town

Monday, December 24, 2012

Market Report: 3 Down 2 More to Go!

I have been following a number of markets since late September, and I have been looking for new highs and price to exceed those highs made on September 2012. Early this week 2 of those markets took out and surpassed the prior September highs, the NYSE and XLF making those new highs confirmed my original thoughts that the decline from the September high was a clear 3 wave decline, which I have maintained only to the cries of the bears telling me it is the start of some gigantic market crash.

Well the DAX made a new yearly high as did other European markets earlier in the month, now we have the XLF and the NYSE making new highs above the September 2012 high. So the bears that were counting those markets as topped in September have got that completely wrong, which does not surprise me at all considering they are not respecting what price is suggesting.

Why did they get it wrong? Well its simple, it was a 3 wave decline, NOT a 5 wave decline as some Elliotticians tried to count it.

Why is this important?

Well a 3 wave decline in an uptrend is a corrective pullback and should see new highs as we have seen this week on the NYSE and XLF, I have been a working a theme with many markets and patterns and it seems we are only pieces away from a full set. The DOW and the SPX have yet to exceed their respective September highs, so whilst the market is not showing signs of a strong reversal, I am going to continue to give the benefit to the bulls, to run the market higher and take out the buy stops that will be sitting at those highs. Not only would it complete some ideas I am working with, but it will also likely turn the majority of traders and the media bullish at precisely the wrong time.

Just the way I like it. Trader's getting mega bullish at the highs, like they were at the highs in 2010, 2011 & 2012

NYSE

This market can stretch a bit higher, which would help my ideas of seeing the DOW and SPX see that new price high above the September 2012 high, which would complete their ideas. It's only just touching the target zone, so a bit more inside would setup up nicely as there is also a strong area of resistance just above that should pose as significant resistance, around 8665-8800.

Non Elliotticians can see the basic bearish wedge shape and the lack of strength to make a new high with a new price highs suggests that the market is in a topping phase, and if my main wave count is correct as shown we are setting up for a large move lower soon, although I still ideally want to see the DOW and SPX exceed their respective September 2012 high first.

Target is a test of the March 2009 lows round 4000.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/28176/market-report-3-down-2-more-to-go

Sunday, December 16, 2012

Market Report: Gold Vs Gold Stocks ($HUI) who is leading who?



The Gold stocks have failed to deliver on my expectations of a move higher and it has caused me to re-think the direction of the yellow metal.

The past few weeks I have suspected that Gold stocks and Gold was a corrective pullback but should have been a shallow pullback, relative to the ideas I was expecting. With the breakdown in the $HUI, it strongly suggests Gold and the Gold stocks could be in some trouble.

HUI versus Gold
Larger Image

When you look at this chart, you can clearly see that the Gold stocks and Gold move well together, but it's when they diverge that it becomes an issue.

The $HUI has been underperforming the price of Gold for a number of weeks, but it's the latest breakdown that should be of concern to the bulls in both markets.

Back in April last year whilst Gold has hovering around the $1650 area, those that were watching the Gold stocks were one clue ahead of the move as it was suggesting that there was an arbitrage between the 2 markets. The same is setting up again, clearly one market is either behind the curve or ahead of it.


Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/28082/market-report-gold-vs-gold-stocks-hui-who-is-leading-who

Monday, December 10, 2012

Market Report: Long Term Elliott Wave Analysis of SPX

 SPX Long Term

My preferred wave count is similar to the idea I posted some weeks back on the DAX and that I suspect the SPX is inside a 5th wave for an ending diagonal so likely to chop higher into Jan-Feb period next year before a meaningful high. It would need a seriously strong break below the 200DMA on the SPX before I would switch to an alternative bearish idea, whilst this market continues higher I still prefer the bullish option over the bearish option.

Although I am certainly no perma bull and calling for SPX 2000 or anything like that, recent price action over the last few days suggests the market is simply correcting the advance from the Nov 2012 lows and likely to push higher once the correction has finished.
 
Read the rest here: http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article37963.html

Monday, December 3, 2012

Market Report: Using Elliott Wave on Stocks

Many Elliotticians and traders feel that you can't use Elliott Wave on individual stocks and that it's only for selective markets. I actually disagree with that statement; Elliott Wave can be used on a number of markets providing you have good volume and a number of participants to make up the collective opinion needed to move price around to creative the waves.

Now I will say that a penny stock is hardly likely to get the attention of big hedge funds, but large stocks such as AAPL, IBM, GOOG etc are big stocks that have a lot of shares and big volume, those are the stocks where Elliott Wave can be applied.

Here are some examples I would like to share.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27900/market-report-using-elliott-wave-on-stocks

Monday, October 29, 2012

Market Report: Cross Correlations Between Markets

If readers take a look at the chart below you can see how highly correlated the markets are and looking for that little edge can sometimes literally be the missing piece of the jigsaw puzzle that can make the difference to being on the right side of the trend.
ES versus USD/CAD and DX
As an Elliottician I look at charts every single day of the week trying to evaluate and find little edges that can make the difference.

Presently I think the markets are at inflection point that should decide the next strong trade.
If we use the ES e-mini contract as a proxy for the US stock markets, we can also see how it has moved opposite virtually tick-tick to the DX (US$) and the USDCAD forex pair.

But I am more interested in what the moves are actually doing from the September 14th lows (ES would be a high).I currently see a 3 wave move on the DX and USDCAD, and likely wise I see a 3 wave decline on the ES.

A 3 wave move is considered a corrective move in an ongoing trend, hence why at this juncture I think if the US$ reverses, we should see the other 2 markets ES move to the upside and USDCAD move to the downside.

Because of where the DX and USDCAD are situated, it's important for stock traders to monitor those 2 markets as they will likely decide the trend of the US markets. As the DX and USDCAD pushes higher up, US stocks markets push lower.

But as mentioned, if the bounces in USDCAD and DX remain as a 3 wave move, that should be a corrective move in the current downtrends, hence why a potential turning point I suspect is at hand and if traders are not watching carefully they might get caught napping.

USDCAD

If we take a close look at the advance we can clearly see that it's a 3 wave advance (so far), its hit a technical measured target where the 2nd advance is equal to the 1st advance.
A 3 wave bounce is important to Elliotticians as not only does it suggest a corrective ABC bounce, the next potential trade is a complete reversal of the move, if the USDCAD pair reverses, then the likely- hood is ES/SPX will reverse to the upside, as seen in the above chart as they are virtually trading tick-tick opposite each other.

USD/CAD
Larger Image



You can also see how it's contained via a corrective channel, that's another key characteristic of a corrective wave.
So currently we have a 3 wave bounce that has hit a measured fibbo target, it's inside a corrective channel, so all that is missing is a strong reversal under the red line to confirm the move is complete.

You can rest the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27485/market-report-cross-correlations-between-markets

 










Sunday, October 28, 2012

Market Report: A Week of Mixed Emotions

We went in Monday looking for a low on US stocks as I was seeing setups to suggest getting long risk markets and particularly we wanted to get long US stocks. Having hit our 1420-1416ES target on ES, I personally bought the 1418ES area, but anywhere around the 4 handle target was the expected reversal zone, we were then pleasantly rewarded with a strong bounce into the close. 1416ES was a gap down Sunday Globex low and it had been a target for a while as the cash markets like to test Globex lows in the pit session hours.

Looking for 1416-1420 ES Test

Monday, October 15, 2012

Market Report: All Eyes on the Dollar

I left readers last week with the idea of the stock markets to move lower, prior to that the expectation was for a move lower in the precious metals and a move higher in the DX to correct the powerful decline we have seen since the 25th July highs in the US$.

The market followed that script nicely as we can see on the updated charts from my last publication. We remained short the markets for the majority of last week, I was looking for 7200 to be hit on the DAX and 2750 on the NDX.

I also had 2 targets in mind on the ES, either 1435ES or 1420ES; having failed to get back above 1435ES on Friday it was clear the market was making its intentions known to see the lower target. It's now I suspect we have a setup on the US markets to push higher, as many of the jigsaw pieces look like they all could come together.

Read the rest here:  http://www.safehaven.com/article/27304/market-report-all-eyes-on-the-dollar

Monday, October 8, 2012

Market Report: More Chop Ahead

Last week I left readers with the idea that more upside is expected in US stocks, nothing really has changed those thoughts, although short term we could see some early weakness, I still feel that the dip will provide an opportunity to get long US stocks.

It seems many premature bears last week were once again looking for that elusive crash that for some reason never seems to go away, and got run over again. I guess when some "papa" bears keep telling their readers and subscribers "it's just around the corner" for the last 3 years it kind of gets thin.

The past week spent most of the week chopping higher, but whilst we saw a new yearly high on the DOW on Friday, the other broad markets failed to register that high hence I suspect we see some weakness early next week and the market pulls back.

NDX

From the June 2012 lows, it's my belief that the market is still involved inside a 4th wave, although I am allowing for a deeper pullback as the recent bounce suggests a 3 wave bounce which should see more weakness towards 2750 as a potential target.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/27217/market-report-more-chop-ahead

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Market Report: Summer Trading Gone Crazy

Confused Markets

The past 4 weeks we have seen some very confused markets that any self respecting technician should be confused about.
Back when the risk markets were falling into the June lows, the call to look for a major turn and a reversal was a very easy call and worked out well, and we had a target of 1360SPX. That was based off the US$ aka DX making a 5 wave advance from the May 1st lows into the June 4th highs. It was a high odds trade that if the US$ reversed we would see risk markets such as US stocks and risk currencies move higher.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/26268/market-report-summer-trading-gone-crazy

Monday, July 16, 2012

Market Report: Complex Just Became More Complex




The move from the June 2012 lows seems like an eternity with all the swings we are seeing, although I am sure it's causing pain to both bull and bears alike, I don't think anyone is immune to it.

To those traders that were trading back in 2008 some of you may remember the March-May 2008 rally, seeing the moves now reminded me back then, and I can recall a nightmare set of trading conditions we were trading back then.

You can see the similarities between the fractals and it's something I am watching, although I follow price 1st and fractals 2nd, but if price holds our key support then we must give some credit to this idea and the potential to move back above the July 2012 highs.

So if we have just finished point 6 then we could have a bit more upside to go, although this is simply an idea, and always open to adjustments, as is any idea.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/26192/market-report-complex-just-became-more-complex

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Market Report: Waiting for Waddle

QE or not, this is the question that most want the answer to come Wednesday 20th June.

Frankly to me it makes no difference as an Elliottician, I follow price and make my decision based on what the waves create.

Many are going into this weekend calling for the end of days as if Greece getting a new government sends the world into mad max.

Yet ordinary folks around the world will get on with their lives as the Greece elections take place. Some probably will never even know Greece has an election this weekend.

Regardless of the outcome of both those events, we will trade it as we see it. The same as we always do, we look for high quality low risk reward trades.

Inter-market Analysis

Back towards the end of May I was actively looking for a reversal in the markets as the world was preaching the end of the Euro zone and a crash was around the corner, well crash or no crash, I felt it got a little too bearish and those late to the party bears needed a harsh lesson about staying out too late.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/25849/market-report-waiting-for-waddle

Sunday, June 3, 2012

Elliott Wave Trading Made Easy Part 2

Following on from part 1, I want to show readers some easy and simple ideas that even the basic user of Elliott Wave can use.

The examples shown here are real life examples that were shown to members before the moves and gave us the confidence to trade the expected direction; they were trade setups from the week just gone.

The 3 wave correction (ABC Correction)
I like this setup very much; it's one of my personal favorites, as I have a high degree of confidence when I see a setup like this.

In a trend setting move, the market will from time to time correct and take a breather, it's a normal event and virtually all traders have seen it, only you probably don't know the importance of the actual waves and what they represent.

As the title says it's an easy pattern and involves finding a simple 3 wave move that is correcting against the trend. Elliotticians call this an ABC correction.

Generally wave C is equal to wave A, although it can be a little short or just above, but the idea is a simple 3 wave move that is against the trend, so it can be a 3 wave decline, or a 3 wave dip. I have shown examples of 3 wave bounces as the market spent most of the time in sell mode this week.

The rest can be dowloased here:

http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/ElliottNewsletter/elt2.pdf

Saturday, May 26, 2012

Elliott Wave Trading Made Easy

As the title says, the aim of this article is for readers to come away after reading the article better informed and take the information and use it in their daily trading and become better informed applying the Elliott Wave Principle.

If you are new to the principle or have a passing interest in the Elliott Wave Principle, then I am sure that the information found in this article should benefit readers greatly.

Much has been written over the years about the principle, and it really has not changed that much since the days that Frost and Prechter first wrote the book Elliott Wave Principle I believe in 1978.

Although published a long time ago, that book is still considered the “bible” of the Elliott Wave Principle, and I suggest anyone that is seriously interested in the Elliott Wave Principle should try to get themselves a copy.

Although if you click on this link, you can download yourselves a copy in a PDF format from Scribd.com.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/7381626/The-Elliott-Waves-Principles-Frost-AJ-PrechterRobert-R

Elliott Wave is considered to be extremely complicated, too much ambiguity and simply put many think of it as some sort of voodoo that only a selective few can decipher.

Well I hope over the next few pages to change that way of thinking, and make it easy for readers to apply the principle and to show you that Elliott Wave is far easier than many are lead to be believe.

It’s not some voodoo system; it’s a very simple system that anyone that can count to 3 and 5 can use.

Simply put if you can’t count to 3 or 5, then yes its likely to be very difficult for you to understand.

My approach to using Elliott Wave is likely to be far different to the academics that have learn the theory but never actually used it in real life trading conditions, it’s my opinion that unless you are a skilled and season trader, you simply will never understand its quirks and use the theory to its maximum potential and understand it in great detail.

Being a full time professional and using the Elliott Wave Principle daily and finding ideas for members is where experience can only be taught or learn from someone who has many years watching, breathing the waves as they involved over time.

That part you will never learn from a course or book, that will only come from time spent watching 100s of hours screen watching.

Over the years I have honed down the theory to keep it as basic as possible, no fancy corrections or letters, just a basic setup that even the traders with a little knowledge will be able to understand.

I have been working with clients to improve their knowledge, but I have shown them my way of thinking.

The rest can be dowloaded from here:

http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/ElliottNewsletter/easy.pdf

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Market Report: The Dam Has Broke

Last week, I left readers with the possibility of the US markets finding a low if they could hold support early last week, we were expecting a gap down towards 1333-1338ES, to finish a potential 5 wave decline from 1411ES.

It was then I was expecting some sort of rally to try and confirm the working ideas we had, well we got a rally (if you can call it that) but it was not what we were expecting for either the bullish or bearish ideas we were working, so much that we had to take invasive maneuvers quickly, the markets lack of strength was alarming and whilst we bought the lows around 1333ES twice, we simply never seen the sort of strength I was expecting, by Wednesday I had other ideas and made it known to members that failure to get above 1342ES (1340SPX) was a big issue and was very bearish, well the market failed to get above our area, in fact it struggled right at our 1342ES #, so much that is got us short and looking lower, and throwing away our initial ideas that we were working the start of the week and got us aggressively bearish.

That's call turned out to be a great call as it has yielded over 50 handles.

I was very bullish at the start of the week looking for an important low, by Tuesday I had my doubts, by Wednesday it was pretty clear the bulls had failed and as my motto says.

"If what you expect to happen does not happen get out"

Which is exactly what we did, we ditched the bull idea and flipped back to being short, as we had been short most of last week into 1333ES, the failure to get above 1342ES suggested the market has finally caught up with the massive divergences that have been seen on the forex risk markets as well as the European stock markets.

I have shown this chart before, but it's a very important chart and has kept us selling and remaining short European stocks and forex risk pairs.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/25496/market-report-the-dam-has-broke