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Showing posts with label NDX. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NDX. Show all posts

Saturday, September 28, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of QQQ

The recent price action we have seen over the past few days suggests it could be a triangle

Observant traders will have noticed the NDX and R2K have been the strongest, whilst the DOW and the SPX have been the weakness markets.

I suspect we still need a "thrust for this idea, (basically the same as the NQ/NDX) for wave [v], that would complex a 5 wave advance from the lows made in Aug 2013.

Once a 5 wave move is in place we should see it setup for a reversal, as Elliott Wave suggests once a 5 wave move is complete a correction at least will be seen.

Ideally we see a RSI divergence as well if we see a new price high.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

Market Report: A Good Start But More Needed

In my article 2 weeks ago, I was looking for a top in the US stock markets. Since that article we have a seen a decent reversal and one that potentially has confirmed a peak is in place, although technically speaking we don't yet have a 5 wave decline in place from the all time highs, but the potential for such an important clue (important to Elliotticians) is serious enough to consider the US markets could well have put in an important peak.


We went into the week after that last article with a potential setup for a reversal, although I did not post this chart in that article, it was one of the clues I mentioned that suggested a peak was close by.

Dow Jones Chart
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This chart was on Fridays close being the 2nd of August. The DOW made an all time high, if you remember back 2 weeks ago, the world was all giddy with delight about the DOW making record highs.

However I was not impressed, in fact I was more bearish than I have been of late, seeing such a pattern suggested we needed to be looking for a reversal, as I spoke about in that article 2 weeks ago.

I was working a pattern Elliotticians call an ending diagonal, and with the new spike high we had enough price action to consider a potential top in place and that set the tone for a reversal on Monday, some members went into the weekend short, although we never had any confirmation of a reversal signal until it dropped under our key support zone we was watching, but based on the larger pattern as well as this short term chart, it made sense to be looking for a top, just as most were celebrating the DOW making a new all time high.

Kind of ironic, the majority of the trading community bullish and we were mega bearish, but I find my best ideas come from fading the crowd, especially when I see a set up that suggests a reversal, I have done that at tops and bottoms many times over the years.

The setup on the DOW was too good of a setup not to recommend to members to look at ways to get short the US markets.

Fast forward and that chart looks like this.

Dow Jones Chart 2
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As I wrote earlier, we don't yet have a 5 wave advance in place, but the potential for one is there, I suspect a smaller wave [iii] is close to ending, so a small bounce in wave [iv] to around 15200 could be seen Monday/Tuesday before heading lower in wave [v], that would then complete a 5 wave decline from the all time highs.

I am working 2 ideas on the daily time frame, and depending on the reaction around 14000-14500 will suggest if the market needs to come back and retest the all time highs and print a move to 15700, or the top is in and we just witnessed a major high in place.

However I am not looking that far ahead as I still need to see a small 5 wave decline from the all time highs to have some confidence of a peak in place.

Should the market decide to adopt a different script, we will of course have to adjust our ideas, but until the market negates the ideas I will stick with what is working.

I use Elliott Wave to look for ideas to help members make $$$, we trade 1st count 2nd, we are more interested in making $$$ not looking for the "hero" call.


We went into the week looking for a peak and a breakdown in the NDX although the QQQs had started to show more strength than the other markets, I noticed the DOW was the weaker market and the SPX was not much better, but the NDX was still firm, which was causing me some issues, and at one stage I was considering the DOW and SPX potentially making a new all time highs, however like all good set ups, things eventually cleared us for us, and the NDX showed its hand.

NDX/QQQ Chart 1
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I posted this idea for members in the week, to non Elliotticians it probably don't mean a lot, but to those of us that study Elliott Wave it was a massive clue for us, and one that finally had us looking for a peak.

As the NDX made a new yearly high and multi-year high, the media was again celebrating this fact, but we on the other hand were looking at something totally different, we were getting bearish just as most were bullish.

The pattern is a triangle, and I was looking for a "thrust higher", once that "thrust" was in place, I was confident we would see a reversal. It could not have worked out better.

NDX/QQQ Chart 2
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With the SPX and DOW failing to make the new highs, it set the stage for a reversal in all the US Stock markets.

Again if the NDX/QQQs have put in an important high, we need to see a 5 wave decline, it's not completed a 5 wave decline yet, but the potential like the SPX and DOW is enough to take it seriously if we do see more downside.

The weekly chart can suggest something really bearish has just finished, although that is the furthest thing from my mind at the moment. I am more interested in trying to confirm a 5 wave decline in the US markets.


SPY Chart 1
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I posted this chart to my Stock Twits account, so it was a freebie for those that follow me, and those that took notice could have traded an nice 30-40 point move on the SPX, even 20 or 30 points is a good move and good $$ if you trade the right set up.

We knew where the idea was wrong and a 3 wave bounce would have offered a setup to sell, with risk defined, there was no second guessing, we had a clear guideline of where the idea was wrong.

Many members made in excess of 25 ES points, at $50 a point that's $1250 a contract, even if you traded puts as some members did, I am sure the gains were more than the monthly fee of $20. Probably even more than the yearly fee.

If things have just got started and my preferred daily idea works out the way I suspect, we can see 1500 on the SPX in no time at all, that's a few points to those that are interested in making $$$.

SPY Chart 2
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The chart of the SPY looks similar to the DOW, so we still need to see a 5 wave decline, but a small bounce for wave [iv], then a new low, will complete a 5 wave move from the all time highs and potentially suggest an important peak is in place.

I will leave it there for this week.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.


Monday, February 25, 2013

Market Report: It Has Started

Well not quite, but it's very possible now a high is in place. In last week's I was looking for a push higher to test the prior highs. We have been tracking an ending diagonal for the past few weeks, only the trouble with that pattern is they have a tendency to morph and waste time.

Last week

SPX Chart
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It's the time wasting as it forms the wedge shape that frustrates traders, until a point it breaks hard and almost all traders are not aware what has happened.
When markets are like that I strongly encourage members to look at other markets, with over 25 markets
that we follow a decent idea is never far away.

SPX Chart
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Well we finally got what appears to be the break we were expecting, and we even followed it lower to cover our shorts on the end of a 5 wave move.

If the bounce remains under the prior swing high at 1531SPX, we are looking to put shorts back on for what I expect will be a strong breakdown towards 1450SPX.

With our risk known, it offers a higher reward for a small risk, exactly the sort of trades that I encourage members to take, I think if the market fails to see a strong break above 1520SPX, it should setup for a decent move lower, having put in a 5 wave decline it's a strong start that a peak is in place.
As always we use stops and know our risk before we put the trade on.


As mentioned above, some members trade the ES, so we have almost 24hr coverage of the markets. If members want an update as to the ideas, they can come into the chat room and ask questions or see the latest ideas in the forums. With the extensive range we trade there is always a market for everyone.
Some members, including myself were short the ES well before the move as we knew the risk to the idea was just under 1540SPX, so using the ideas on the SPX for risk control on the ES.
I was personally short from 1517-20ES as suggested in our swing trades service, so members had the ability to follow my personal trades.

Read the rest here:  http://www.safehaven.com/article/28924/market-report-it-has-started

Monday, January 28, 2013

Market Report: Still Waiting

From last week's report, the markets have not done much, other that chop and around, although they did move a little bit higher. My main wave count is still applicable at this time; I don't see anything at this time to concern me, although should the markets go on a tear to the upside I will obviously have to consider my options, but as it stands I still like the idea of a potential reversal setting up.
Is it time to put on the bear suits? Currently the answer is still a no, although the potential is there, the trend is still up and must be respected until we see a breakdown.
I originally targeted the 1480-1500SPX as an area of interest, and we briefly hit the top end of that range, although the idea is not actually invalid until its above 1551SPX, although personally I wouldn't want to see this above 1530SPX, so we still have some room to spare should the market want to squeeze a bit higher first.

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You can read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/28566/market-report-still-waiting

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of NDX

A new high here would complete a nice looking 5 wave advance, then i suspect we should then see at least a correction potentialy back towards 2550-60

But a 5 wave advance is a bullish event and potentially could have more bullish ramifications for prices over the coming weeks into Christmas

2617 is where [v] = [i] so 2600-2620 is a target area to end the 5th wave then a reversal is expected

Saturday, February 4, 2012

Market Report: Are US Treasuries a Sell?

Impressive gains on stocks, it seems nothing can derail this trend atm.

Finally however we meet some awaited targets, although I will be the 1st to admit I am really pushing the boat here and allowing for the bears to come up with some magic before I potentially revert and relinquish and ideas of seeing a reversal.

Sometimes you got to know when to fold, we are at that point where if the bears don't come up with something, then the likely hood is that the markets are in something special and a test of the Oct 2007 highs are most probable.

I have been more interested in the NDX that any other US market, from a technical perspective if offers more clues that the other major markets.

However we have reached a point where the bears really do need to find some magic or a miracle to derail this beast of a trend from Dec 2011 lows, its exceeded my targets, and I am trying to give the benefit to a potential reversal up here, but if it don't come, then the bears are in trouble.

My original targets were 2400 on the NDX and SPX 1300-1320, but so far nothing to suggest a reversal.

What we do have is price structure, and a very giddy market that thinks that it can never reverse now.

Those same components were in place at the 2011 highs.

But we have yet to see any impulsive price structure to suggest a reversal.

Potentially the trend now from this area is a trend setting move and one that could last out for months potentially a year or so.

Read the rest here.

Elliott Wave Analysis of the NDX

Update to the previous posting

We have the 5th wave in for a completed 5 wave count from the DEC 2011 lows, so this is now ready to reverse

If no reversal then the Bears are in trouble, and likely to have a big effect on the ideas going forward over the coming year(s)

Time to put up or shut up

Wednesday, February 1, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of the NDX

The trend has been one relentless move from Dec, and i have always considered the NDX/NQ Elliott Wave count to be the primary wave count that traders should be following, as tech leads others follows

So when tech decides its time to reverse so will the other markets imo

Now i wont go into too much details but the ramifications of this 5 wave move from the Dec 2011 are potentially more alarming than you think, the past few months have shaped up into what i suspect is a culmination of a pattern from the 2008 lows and ultimately from the 2000 highs

All in all the bottom line is the message form the NDX/NQ is the one to follow for the US markets in the authors opinion

So looking for a new high where i suspect this should be final a high and eventually roll over

This has exceeded my original target, but it appears that the last few waves are a series of 3s and 4s, so still expecting a final push higher, as i write Globex has put in that high