Elliott Wave Training

Are you looking to learn the Elliott Wave principle? Or maybe you already have some experience and want to find the ways to improve your skills better.

Click on this post for details:


Showing posts with label NIK-225. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NIK-225. Show all posts

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of NIK-225 & USDJPY

Bottom line: Sell Japan, I think both markets still need at least one more leg lower to complete a corrective WXY decline from their respective peaks.


If you take a non-biased approach and simply counted the decline as you see it, you can clearly see there are 7 swings from 105.34 - 100.74, so by definition its a corrective decline, or part of a larger more complex pattern. The move from 100.74 - 104.12 is also a corrective set of waves and thus labeled a corrective bounce.

This would still imply that USDJPY should see a move back under 100.74 to complete a potential WXY correction from 105.34, ideally targeting towards 99.50.

The market is bearish under 104.12, whilst it remains under that area we should see at least a new swing low under 100.74. Resistance is between 102.80 - 103.50 but its subject to the current bounce.


The decline from 16452 - 13943 appears to be a 7 swing move, so by definition its a corrective decline or at least part of a larger more complex pattern.

The move from 13943 - 15236 is again a corrective series of waves, if you take a closer look you will notice the large divergence between the 2 markets, a sure sign of an impending reversal.

When we see this inter-market divergence its generally seen at reversal points, in this case it was a peak for both markets, but we can also see that sort of divergence at major lows as well, 2 markets that follow in each others footsteps suddenly diverge from one another.

Whilst the NIK-225 is under 15236 we should see at least a new low towards 13500 possibly towards 13000 depending on the next decline.

Based upon the current wave structure it still appears to be missing at least another leg lower in both markets, so the moral of the story is to look to sell Japan for a move lower.

USDJPY is bearish below 104.12

NIK-225 is bearish below 15236

NIK-225 = NIK-225 futures not the cash market

Its now closing in on my initial target i had targeted back in  Dec 2013, way before this current decline, such is the power of Elliott Wave used in  the right hands.

If it remains as a corrective looking decline, then it could potentially be a large 4th wave, which would imply new yearly highs to come before the trend is finished from the 2009 lows.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Market Report: JPY Carry Trade Reversal?

In my last article I left readers with the potential idea of a peak in the US markets, although we saw a minor pullback, it was not the move or the initial decline I am expecting.

Although this minor new high in the SPX has caused me to adjust my wave counts a little, the thesis is still on track and I am expecting a large decline in the markets, in the early part of 2014.

Bearish Idea

S&P500 Weekly Bearish Idea Chart
Larger Image

I suspect this last spike we have seen over the past week is wave 5 of [5], so whilst it can push a bit higher I do think it's close to a reversal.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/32234/market-report-jpy-carry-trade-reversal

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of NIK-225

Since my last post: http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/02/elliott-wave-usdjpy-vs-nik-225.html

The NIKKEI as expected has pushed higher in what i suspect is wave 5 from the lows made back in Oct 2012

If we look closer, it appears we need a minor new high, although the wave [iv] of 5 might take on a complex formation and chop around a bit more before heading higher

From 11067, it still lacks the new high needed to complete a 5 wave advance, although wave [iv] might chop around, before heading higher

I would be surprised if we saw a truncation, but that is something we should consider, its come a long way of the back of a "promise" and i suspect the market has go ahead of itself


If we look at the same date the rally in the NIK-225 started, and count the USDJPY pair, we can see that too is suggesting the end to a 5 wave rally from Oct 2012 and an important peak is nearing for both markets

Note: there is a way you can label USDJPY completed, as shown in the idea in blue, so its a truncated high, a strong break back under 94.00 will suggest that idea, the Cyprus gap down held the key 94.00 area, so the bullish case for one last high is still valid, and potentially aligns with the NIK-225 pushing to new highs

Bottom line: In my opinion bit these markets are very close to a substantial reversal, the trade to be long these markets is nearing a conclusion, every man and his dog is long this trade and when a market or trend is too obvious and we can see a 5 wave move, its time for caution,

The USDJPY and AUDJPY may have topped already as on the last high AUDJPY put in a new high but USDJPY failed to follow AUDJPY, but the patterns on both pairs can allow for a marginal new high, but i strongly suspect if a peak is not in then it will be on the next high, or i should say i strongly suspect that to be the case, and thats the way i am trading it personally

Do you notice the RSI divergence? that's classic on a 5th wave, so that's some evidence to support our ideas

The Oct 2012 low is key for many of the JPY pairs as some pairs count well for a potential 5 wave advance from that low, the AUDJPY can be counted complete, the USDJPY would be counted with a truncation, but both pairs may or may not see a new high, but even so, it is my opinion that new high should if come is a setup to sell

I am bearish the JPY crosses and actively looking for a reversal to sell and looking for evidence to sell NIK-225 based on a suspect 5 wave advance from the Oct 212 lows

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Elliott Wave USDJPY Vs NIK-225

An addition to my last post reveals that the triangle idea might need revising as i noticed that it might also be happening on the NIK-225

So the wave [a] of the triangle needs to be placed at the Feb 15th lows, not as i initially suspected, that would align with a potential triangle as per the NIK-225

As most traders know the USDJPY and NIK-225 are trading virtually tick-tick, so its worth watching the NIK-225 for clues

Although the triangle is suspected to break to the upside, there is a "trap" that many traders miss, as shown on the NIK-225 chart, and that whilst many look to the upside, its actually a B wave triangle and you get a thrust lower and fool the majority of traders, although it quickly reverses once its took out the wave A stops

Although i don't suspect it atm, its always an option, as 4th waves are notorious for messing with traders and choppy them up to pieces, and this has been no exception

It is looking like some sort of 4th wave in progress on both markets, so that suggests once they have finished more upside expected in both markets, at least one more high needed to finish a 5 wave impulse move.

The very fact the declines are looking corrective looking,  supports the 4th wave idea currently in progress, so be prepared for more chop on both markets if its inside a triangle

Stops need to be placed at the wave [a] lows (Feb 15th) as triangles have a nasty habit of morphing and chopping traders up

The idea of a 4th wave also agrees with my work on EURJPY, AUDJPY , those 2 are the other main JPY crosses i follow, they too appear to be in a 4th wave patten, but not a triangle as i suspect on USDJPY and NIK-225

Sunday, December 2, 2012

Asian Markets ASX, HSI, SET100, NIK-225, KOSPI, SENSEX

I have decided to open the Asian forums for the rest of December. Although i never actually offered a service on these markets, they were provided for members as an "add on" to full members (only full members have access). They were generally requests from members.

I tend to update them when something has either negated the idea, or if a market is nearing a suspected conclusion.

Its built up now to around 6 markets from the Asian area.

Markets included are: ASX, HSI, SET100, NIK-225, KOSPI, SENSEX

They are not updated that regularly, as mentioned i don't offer a service for updating these markets on a regular basis (there does not appear to be enough interest), they are generally for swing traders as most of my clients are from the US and European countries so i focus on those markets from the US and Europe.

But i do occasional requests on stocks or other markets if a member requests it.

Click here: http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/forum/59-asian-australian-stock-markets/


Any questions you can contact me via Twitter or email to: enquires@wavepatterntraders.com 

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of NIK-225 (Japan)

This has been one great market to count waves, and virtually text book so far, a great example to newbies on counting

Still looking for that overall 5000 area, although it needs under the last major lows in March 2009 for the minimum target on the idea from the 1989 high.

Over 900 points lower, this is simply the market that keep on giving, whilst Bearish traders have been fighting the tape on the US markets, all they had to do was have a look at the Japan markets and you would have yourselves an easy trade

I have no reason to suspect any difference, its done what i wanted, although this is only a market i seldom update for a few clients as its a free market, but when its like this you dont need to complicate it.

You simply remain short and bring down stops occasionally, you simply use key areas to denote where the idea is wrong, and run the trade.

What can be easier?

I wrote this on 16th April

"I suspect we have finished an expanded flat for wave 2 of [C] and head lower, we should not be seeing above 10k for the foreseeable future "

One month on it sits approx 900 points lower.

Do i see 7k before 10k?