Anyone reading that headline would think it's some sort of surprise to most traders that the markets crashed 450 points in 2 days, but for us a wavepatterntraders.com we have been looking for a reversal in the markets for a few weeks and it was only a matter of time before things reversed. So it's no surprise to us, it was expected and I expect much more if a top is in place.
Is this the start of the large move lower that I am expecting? Well to answer
that question honestly, it's too early to say, but regardless of the answer,
what we can say for sure is that if it is the start of something sinister,
we will be riding it lower.
In my last few articles I left readers with the idea of a potential JPY carry
trade reversal. The analysis holds true today as it did the end of last year.
I am a big believer that if the JPY carry trade unwinds, we will see much more
downside in the markets, it will make last week look like a picnic, if the
markets have indeed topped out as we expect they have, then its only just getting
started. I urge all bullish traders and investors to pay attention to the JPY
carry pairs, particularly USDJPY, those that understand the drivers of the
market should be fully aware that the past 12 months it's the JPY carry trade
that has helped stocks push to current levels.
Just as the markets move higher due to the borrowing of JPY, they can easily
reverse lower as margin calls get called in as the selling forces more and
more sellers to cover those margin calls. It's a self-fulfilling spiral that
once it gets going is very difficult to stop until the sellers have been washed
SPX long Term
I have posted this chart before, but as a recap I will post it again. If the
trend from the March 2009 lows is only a 3 wave move, then the likelihood is
that it's a B wave of a possible expanded flat pattern.
For those traders that argue that the March 2009 lows will never be seen again,
I merely suggest you check the history of the markets, 2 examples are the 1966-1974
bear market, the market made a new high in 1973 and then made new lows, the
other example which many investors are probably aware was the decline from
2000-2003, which made a new all time high in 2007, then subsequently crashed
under the 2002/3 lows.
I think it's very naive to outright say there is no chance that the US markets
can't revisit the March 2009 lows.
Look at it like this, when Gold was at $1900, I bet many thought it was a
sure bet 100% that Gold was going to $2000, so at the time if you said Gold
seeing $1180 was a possibility most Gold investors would have laughed in your
face, 2 years on and Gold investors are not exactly pleased.
Put yourself in the position of those Gold investors, do you think that US
stocks will be going up indefinitely?
And there is no chance of a move lower?
Bullish Alternative Idea
Even if I am wrong and this will end up being a 5 wave impulse from the March
2009 lows, that still implies we will see a 4th wave pullback, so a large move
back towards Dow 14500, SPX 1550 should be seen. Do you really want to be caught
holding the bag and suffer a pullback to 1550SPX?
The 1st bearish clue would be a 5 wave decline from the highs; Friday's mini
crash suggests it's still inside a small 3rd wave, so we want to see a 4th
and a 5th wave to complete a 5 wave impulse wave, if that is seen it will be
a strong clue of a trend change, the minimum target would be 1550SPX.
Whilst we don't have any crystal balls we do have a mine in the sand, if the
market continues lower as we expect then we will look to see the bounce for
a 4th wave and look lower for a 5th wave, then we should see a corrective 3
wave bounce as shown.
All is not as it seems
If you look around the globe and "under the hood" you can see all is not as
is seems, whilst some US markets have made new all time highs, that can't be
said for many other markets.
If you look at the XLF we can clearly see that it's lagged the SPX and by
any criteria you want to choose in my book that's a bear market rally. We can
clearly see it's a 3 wave bounce, so by definition it's a corrective bounce
in Elliott wave terms, furthermore it's virtually met its measured move target
where [C] = [A].
Not exactly screaming a bull market is it?
We think the XLF could be a great set up to sell, if it's just put in a peak,
and topped, then I am expecting a strong move lower. That's one sector I suggest
readers watch for weakness.
The NYSE is a very important US market and is often over looked, but as we
can clearly see its only "just" tested its Oct 2007 highs, if that's a simple
double top, then we could be on the verge of a strong move lower, again another
market I think investors and traders should be watching.
Do you notice the look? It appears to be in 3 waves and only just above the
measured move target where [C] = [A], so whilst the SPX and DOW have got all
the headlines if you look around thins are not what they seem.
Around the world
What about other markets that "used" to closely follow the US markets?
That sure looks like a 3 wave bounce to me, if you are an Elliottician and
reading this, I will gladly debate the merits of a potential 5 wave move from
the March 2009 lows, because I can't find a way to label that even remotely
as a potential 5 wave impulse wave, it's a clear 3 wave move, so in Elliott
wave terms a corrective bear market rally.
Incidentally we think this a great market to look to sell and if we can count
a small 5 wave decline from the highs then we have a strong clue of a trend
reversal, I am targeting 2500, so plenty of downside.
There are many other markets and stocks that suggest the move from the March
2009 is a 3 wave bounce, a 3 wave move is important to Eliotticians as it suggests
it's a counter trend bounce.
So you are probably thinking, well you have just picked the markets to curve
fit your bias. Why don't you pick a market that has made new all time highs?
Let's do that, what about the DAX, is that ok with you?
Do you notice the look; it sure looks like a 3 wave move to me. Do you see
a 5 wave move there? Furthermore it is only just above the measured move target
where C = A.
So whilst it's made a new all time high, it can be considered a B wave of
an expanded flat pattern and if the pattern is correct we should see a strong
I have been targeting this box area for a few months, but if the DAX fails
to continue higher and we see a closing print under the top of the box, I would
consider that as a bearish sign, especially if we see a bearish candlestick
such as a shooting star or a bearish engulfment, on a monthly scale that's
a strong signal.
Now let's look at what is happening in Europe.
The CAC and EURSTOXX50 sure don't look like a bull market to me, what do you
So having followed each other for years, we finally see a divergence between
the DAX and the rest of Europe; I would say that's a pretty convincing statement
to say something is wrong with the move in the DAX.
Whilst we will trade the markets both long and short, when you look at the
bigger picture around the rest of the globe, both in stocks and other closely
linked markets, it sure don't look like a bull market in many other sectors
and world markets.
If you are interested in trading with a bunch of traders that don't drink
the "cool aid" and looking to actually find trades to make $$, try us out,
we offer a trial now for $9.99 for 1 week, if you don't like the site, you
have no future commitments.
We are traders that trade for a living, not newsletter writers that have no "skin
in the game" when we make mistakes we loss $$ just like you. You can rest assure
no matter if its stock futures, forex or commodities we will always find something
to trade with clear risk/reward trade.
The markets potentially have a peak in place, the evidence last week was encouraging
for the ideas we have been using, however we need to see a 5 wave decline 1st
from the all time highs, until we have that we don't yet have a strong clue
of a trend change, if we do see more downside, it's likely to be much larger
move that many think, with so many traders now addicted to buying the dip,
Its sure to surprise a few traders, as it did last week.
Until next time,
Have a profitable week ahead.
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Sunday, January 26, 2014
Saturday, August 24, 2013
Last week’s article I left readers with the idea of looking for a bounce for wave [iv] and new lows for wave [v].
We got the bounce for wave [iv], although smaller than I initially thought, but the spike lower off the FED minutes appears to have completed the smaller wave [v]. The bounce off the lows is exactly what the bulls wanted to see, so it appears that it is now correcting the 5 wave decline from 171.
Earlier in the week I was watching the NYSE McClellan Osc for clues, I noticed the readings were back to levels where a strong bounces have come. This further suggested a bounce was likely due. So caution was needed. That caution proved to be a wise step.
The current reading is just under 0. It’s bounced a decent amount, so good grounds for a breather for a day or two.
We should see a small pullback early next week for a small [b] wave, to around 165 (in 3 waves), then that should setup for more upside in wave [c] of [ii] to around the 168 area, there is an open gap which could serve as a target around the 1685SPX area. So I suspect the market may target that area over the coming week ahead.
An alternative idea is that Fridays bounce ended wave [iv] as part of a complex wave [iv] and then we see a test of the lows made this past week, however I would need to see a strong break of 165 to get behind that area, I prefer the idea in black and any weakness next week will likely find support around the 165 area.
As long as any bounce is in 3 waves and fails to exceed the highs at 171, I am expecting more downside over the coming months ahead, as part of a larger correction that will target the 1500-1530 on the SPX.
Another market that is supportive of the market putting in a 5 wave decline is the NYSE.
I am looking for the same 3 wave bounce to correct the 5 wave decline, so potentially target the gap fill above or get close to it, but we will adjust as the markets dictates.
So early next week, any weakness that appears to be corrective would setup a buying opportunity for the bulls and target another 30-35 points on the SPX.
Until next time,
Have a profitable week ahead.