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Showing posts with label NZD/USD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NZD/USD. Show all posts

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of NZDUSD (short term)

The daily chart of this pair is messy and no clarity at all, but that don't mean there is never any trade ideas, if you scale down to a 30 min chart you can see from 0.8391 that there is a 5 wave decline

From 0.8242 i want to see a 3 wave bounce towards 0.8330

That will setup for a potential move lower in another 5 wave decline.

Stops need to be put at 0.8391

Target 0,8150-70

Credit to @GregInBaltimore for bringing this idea to my attention


Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of NZDUSD

From 0.8404 we have a pretty text book 5 wave decline

So a standard set up is to sell the end of a 3 wave bounce into a target area, stick a stop at the origin of the 5 wave move.

So the stop is at 0.8404, we know its wrong above that area as the retracement can not retrace more than 100% of the prior move, so in this case it cant go above 0.8404.

A target band is between the 50-618 fibbo retracements, we also have a 1x1 measured move where the 2nd up leg equals the 1st up leg of the suspected 3 wave move

Any strong powerful move above 0.8300 is a warning that this is something more bullies, we want to see a reversal and the market stall our around 0.8280-8300

So so can watch and see the reaction from the target zone to get a better "feel" if this current move off the last swing low is a 3 wave bounce

Saturday, September 1, 2012

Divergences Forex Markets

The divergences still appear to be mounting, (they can of course reverse).

In this market there is a series of forex pairs that i personally follow to keep looking for ideas on the direction of the trend in risk markets etc.

Now every market should be viewed on its on merits, but there are times that you can use a combination of similar markets to look for important clues to a trend reversal

Back at the March 2012 highs i started to notice the forex risk pairs NZDUSD and AUDUSD bleed lower, then slowing the AUDJPY followed, and the last to reverse was the 6C aka CADUSD (USDCAD in reverse)

I could not understand why US stocks had not puked and followed AUDUSD, AUDJPY, NZDUSD and the European markets lower (all those markets were in sell mode)

But the clue finally came from the USDCAD aka 6C in reversal, and that was the link as to why the US markets held up into the May 2012 highs

The same appears to be happening again and that 6C has gone it alone and is supporting US stocks, so when the USDCAD/6C markets reverse, its my belief that you will see a reversal in the US stock markets

So i suggests those that are looking for a reversal in US stocks, is to watch the patterns and price evidence on USDCAD/6C

Don't take my word for it, see for yourself (or you can sign up and follow my work)

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of NZD/USD

Before and after shots

Were you ready to sell it?? or was you looking to the moon as most other treaders were

This is what i wrote on 4th March

"So if this count is now finished (which looks virtually text book), i am now looking for a strong move lower to 0.7300"

The result ............... well you can be the judge

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of NZD/USD

So far working well from the triangle thrust, its doing what should be seen, as the move out of the triangle is the last move in a sequence

The reversal has been strong, so no reason to doubt this idea, i am still working the same idea across the risk markets

If they have topped a long standing [B] or [X] wave, then we are on our way to the Oct 2011 lows

There are other Bullish ideas, but i will cross that when i come across any issues, for now, i am sticking with what works

Atm this is working well, so not exactly looking to chop and change ideas till the markets tell me i am wrong.

Either way its been a great trade so far and well in the pips.