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Showing posts with label Natural Gas. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Natural Gas. Show all posts

Saturday, May 4, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis Natural Gas

The past weeks reversal i suspect has finally marked an important peak and over the course of the following week ahead i am expecting a significant move lower on NG.

Currently we can label a small 5 wave decline from the last swing high, so a small bounce could be seen the early part of next week, as long as any bounce is a corrective move in 3 waves, that should offer traders the chance to sell this market as i suspect it will set up a 3rd wave which will be a very profitable wave to trade.

The advance over the the past 12 months is a corrective looking move, so argues strongly for the move to be completely retraced over the months ahead.

Target under $3.20

Monday, April 8, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of Natural Gas

I have been watching this idea for a few days and waiting for a move higher to finish this potential larger WXY correction idea, this last leg up looks like a 5th wave of wave C of a larger wave [Y].

Although simply put, its a 3 wave movement from $3.14, much similar the prior 3 wave movement from $3.07.

Hence its what we Elliotticians call a WXY correction, from $3.25 i suspect its now in a small 5th wave of C, so as its pushed to a new high its met its minimum objection, although the [Y] =  [W] target has been met as well.

If i am correct about this idea, and i don't see any reason why atm, then we should be very close to a strong reversal and suspect this whole advance from the April 2012 lows gets completely retraced.

But even if the larger idea is wrong, there appears to be a 5 wave advance from $3.25 nearing a conclusion, if you look at the RSI it argues for a 5th wave much like the peak into the wave [W] peak back in Oct 2012.

Ideally a small minor high for a small 5th wave then a strong move under $4.10 is want i want to see

I suspect there are many ways traders could take advantage of a potential reversal in this market, i personally prefer the futures market, although traders could look at options

I personally don't know of any decent ETF, that really moves 1-1 with the price of NG, so i strongly suggest seeking out ways to trade this before you enter any trades

Monday, January 28, 2013

Market Report: Still Waiting

From last week's report, the markets have not done much, other that chop and around, although they did move a little bit higher. My main wave count is still applicable at this time; I don't see anything at this time to concern me, although should the markets go on a tear to the upside I will obviously have to consider my options, but as it stands I still like the idea of a potential reversal setting up.
Is it time to put on the bear suits? Currently the answer is still a no, although the potential is there, the trend is still up and must be respected until we see a breakdown.
I originally targeted the 1480-1500SPX as an area of interest, and we briefly hit the top end of that range, although the idea is not actually invalid until its above 1551SPX, although personally I wouldn't want to see this above 1530SPX, so we still have some room to spare should the market want to squeeze a bit higher first.

Larger Image

You can read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/28566/market-report-still-waiting

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Natural Gas

After putting in a potential decade and long term low, we have been tracking this decline from back at 2.55.

As this approaches the target area, we are now in what i call defcon mode, as we can be potentially setting up a strong move higher.

Here is what i wrote back then around 2.55

So we should see more downside over the coming weeks and my best guess is a very sharp and deep correction to get traders all Bearish again, but the decline should remain as a 3 wave decline to around the 786-618 retrace areas.

Fast forward, it appears to have worked well as i suspected it would, but now that we have arrived at my target areas, i am actively looking for evidence to support a strong break higher.

The great thing about this idea, is we know what we want to see, as well as we know where the idea is wrong .

If this is about to put in a secondary low, i think it will surprise many with the next expected direction .

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Natural Gas

Is there a long term low in place? It sure looks like it

I can count a 5 wave advance from the last swing low, if we get to see a 3 wave decline it could be the "buy of the year" if you can hold on to the trade



You can buy E-minis on NG

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Natural Gas

I see a lot has been written about NG (Natural Gas) the past few weeks, although i can understand why, as its at multi year lows, however i kinda think its still got a bit lower to finish this long term idea

If you look closely it appears as a small poss triangle, so a push to the red line area seems possible from here

The Elliott Wave count is a large WXY so should be finishing up very shortly, although this is not your everyday market that moves around aggressively