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Showing posts with label OIL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label OIL. Show all posts

Sunday, March 30, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil (CL/QM)


The decline from the March highs appears to be in 5 waves, currently the bounce appears to be in 3 waves and has met its price projection to $101.50.

I am looking for a strong sign of a reversal, I think offers traders a great setup to sell, we know its wrong above the March 2014 highs.

So the risk is limited.


Another way to play a potential decline in oil is to buy the ETF SCO, if your account is small then ETFs are a great way to take advantage of the moves on the underlining market.

You can look to buy at the market on Monday, stops need to go at the March 2014 lows.

Remember this ETF moves higher as Oil (CL/QM) moves lower.

Good luck

Sunday, February 23, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil (CL)

Back on Jan 12th I posted some charts and ideas of where i thought Oil was likely to go based on the current structure.


True to form it has not disappointed, surprisingly it has moved really well over the past 6 months.

Having targeted the $102 area for wave [2] it has seen that and some more, but its now that i think Oil could potentially suggest its setting up for a new leg lower.

Sentiment has shifted from bearish to bullish, the media are talking about Oil once again, although instead of being bearish they are bullish, such is the way, the media are usually the group that is bearish and bullish at the wrong time, usually just before the turn.

Going forward i am looking for evidence of a move lower now to start wave [3] which should be a strong decline that takes out the $90.00 area. on route for lower prices.

Elliott Wave is not perfect, but used in the right hands it is a great tool as you can see, the predication was made public way before the actual advance for the suspected wave [2].

We have had some real good success with Oil over the past few months, it has followed our script nicely since its peak around $112.

If my preferred idea is going to play then the next move should be a strong decline that could test the $80 - 90 over the coming months.

Click the link above to see the ideas, nothing has changed on the weekly chart.

Sunday, January 12, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil (CL)

Is it time for the bears to be cautious?? I think so.

Way back in August of 2013 i was very vocal on Twitter about an impending top in Oil, it seemed the media had finally got on board the Oil story. Usually when the media is bullish on a market its close to a top.

True to form the media did not disappoint, stories about $150 oil were common place, the more Oil rallied the more traders were bullish. That's exactly what i want to see when i look for a peak on any market.

Although its not a case of just taking the other side of the trade willy nilly, there has to be the right right Elliott Wave structure.

Around August 9th 2013 i posted this chart, i was still looking for a move towards $112-115.

We at Wavepatterntraders.com were looking for the opposite side of the trade, as Oil was moving higher i was telling members that this will be a top that will surprise many traders when it reverses.

The proceeding series of waves appeared to be a small triangle, so we wanted a spike, until we saw the spike we could not get bearish. As price pushed higher above $110, it was time to be looking for a reversal.

The initial drop was ugly to say the least and caused me some issues, i was still toying with the idea of a potential minor higher, but i presented this count for members that wanted to take a speculative short side bets against the last high at $112.24. That trade turned out to be a great trade.

A few members have rode most of the decline.

Low risk, high reward is what we are all about, looking for ideas no matter what market, if we can count it, we can trade it.

After a bit of back and forth, (including a possible setup to move above $112.24), it finally broke the $106 area and finally confirmed the bear idea, it was then aggressive shorts could be put on as members had a clear line in the sand to use as a stop (blue line).

Fast forward we have now hit those $92.00 targets i set back in Sept 2013. so its now time to be cautious on the market. I am not as bearish as i was near $112, seeing a potential 5 wave decline has me very cautious about seeing a rip your face off short squeeze to burn some of the late to the party bears.

NB: Long term ideas may change but over the coming years i am still targeting a move under the 2009 lows around $30, but the moves in between will still need to be counted and traded.

If something more bearish happens then we will adjust our waves counts and follow it lower, but having met our targets, we are cautious now.

Sentiment has now turned bearish, the complete opposite to when Oil was trading near $112.

I think there is a strong case to suggest a 5 wave decline has been put in from $112.24, although its a bit tentative atm, staying above $92.00 would help the bullish case.

If wave [1] is complete then i am targeting a move towards $100-102 for wave [2]

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Sunday, June 23, 2013

Elliott wave Analysis of Oil (Crude)

Its been a few weeks since i write something on the blog, although i have been very active in other areas of social media. i tend to just post charts and ideas on StockTwits as its more convenient.

If you want to keep up with ideas and my thoughts then you can head on over to Twitter and follow my tweets see here: https://twitter.com/Nouf_wpt

or alternately you can follow my ideas on StockTwits see here: http://stocktwits.com/Wavepatterntraders

A few people have asked could i explain my posts a little more.

So i will follow on from an idea i posted in the week on Oil

We saw a 5 wave decline see here: http://stocktwits.com/message/14219981

I was targeting the $97.00 area in some sort of 3 wave bounce, the bounce on Friday was far weaker than i thought an potentially sets up a more bearish idea than i initially figured.

If we see a small bounce fail under the red lined area, at around $94.50 then i suspect its going to set up for a more aggressive move lower, in what Elliotticians call a 3rd of 3rd.

So early next week i am watching to see what sort of bounce we get and if it fails to get above the red lines, if so its a sell stops require to be put at $95.85

Target  $86

The fact that the market made a new low on the RSI suggest the underling weakness needs to be respected, I am bearish on this market whilst it remains under $95.85.

Please note the risk point at $95.85, this is a real trade setup that i have posted in the forums for members to trade.

There is always an element of risk, but failure to get above the red lines is a good sign for the bears, we want to see slow weak price action to confirm a corrective bounce against the decline from $95.85.

Sunday, April 21, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil

Update to this chart http://stocktwits.com/message/13001528

If we just focus on the move that started from $97.77 we have a basis to find a trade, the long term picture has not moved in over 2 years, but there have been plenty of smaller setups we could have traded.

It can be counted as a 5 wave decline, there is enough gyrations, but i suspect that with the wave Gold and Silver are looking we should see further downside in all 3 markets.

If you look at Silver is relatively weak compared to Gold and it actually looks like a triangle much like the idea shown on Oil.

This could also pop to around $89.30 and still be fine for wave [iv] as its well under the standard fibbo retrace of 38.2% of wave [iii].

Corrections are difficult at the best of times, and 4th waves are the worst wave of them all, this is where i tend to hedge ideas and allow for many ideas, so scale in positions and allow for variations in the ideas such as this idea, that way you don't continually get stopped and chopped to pieces.

Much above $91 is likely to suggest the idea in blue and we indeed have completed a 5 wave decline from $97.77.

If it moves lower now for wave [v], then i am targeting $84.00, so a decent move.

Staying under $88.75 supports the triangle idea as shown.

We can use $91.00 as the bull/bear area short term.

Friday, March 15, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil (update)

An update from the earlier posts, you can scan the blog from the past week or so, they should be easy to find

Anyhow, we have arrived at the target zone and its worked out really well, its a corrective looking move, so I am looking for some sort of evidence to a strong reversal in this market

We want to see an impulsive breakdown, ideally under $92.00 will be the 1st clue, but as it stands this is still in grind mode, so its not a sell just yet

Presently this is now on "wait and see mode"

Saturday, March 9, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil

An update to the previous posting on Oil

See here: http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/03/elliott-wave-analysis-of-usdnok-oil.html

It appears we are still in correction mode, although we are pushing higher which is a positive sign

I still think we could push higher into the target band, but short term it looks like a 3 wave bounce which i think is wave [w] of a larger correction, so a small corrective decline for wave [x] would setup a move higher for wave [y]  into the preferred target area marked in blue

The alt is that the correction is nearly over, but with Copper and Platinum, looking incomplete (see below) thats a very low odds trade, and i think we have a very good chance of seeing higher, although in a corrective bounce against the 5 wave declines we have seen in PL, CL and HG

I am only very short term bullish and looking higher for a 3 wave rally to correct the 5 wave declines we have seen in Platinum, Oil and Copper from the Feb 2013 peaks

Wednesday, March 6, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDNOK & Oil

I am looking for a pullback in 3 waves on this pair, although its not a pair i follow much, it was suggested by a member to watch as it has a close relationship with Oil

With a 5 wave advance in USDNOK and what appears to be a 5 wave decline in Oil (remember i posted the Oil and Copper charts over the weekend)

What i am looking for is a 3 wave bounce in Oil to align with the USDNOK pushing towards the 50% retrace around 5.600

That would ideally setup for a reversal as the trend is clearly down on Oil and, and with the next suspected move lower in Oil and Copper, based on the correlation between USDNOK and OiL we should see this pair rally higher

Furthermore you can also see its a decent proxy for the US$, so i suspect as USDNOK rallies the EURUSD pair will puke, which agrees with the idea of a bounce in EURUSD towards 133 and then setup for a move lower

Saturday, March 2, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of Copper (HG) & Oil (CL)

Both markets appear to have declined in 5 waves, so i suspect a 3 wave correction to correct this decline should be close

The daily patterns on both Oil and Copper suggest far far lower prices over the coming months, and this 5 wave decline is just the start of it

You can see that Oil, Copper and even AUDUSD follow each other, so it don't bode well for AUDUSD and seeing 0.9200 is most likely going to be seen on AUDUSD over the coming months

Furthermore i suspect the Copper and Oil stocks in the FTSE and ASX will get hit once the markets really unravel to the downside

But for now it appears that we can see a bit higher in all 3 markets, i posted the AUDUSD idea earlier

This daily chart shows the correlation clear enough that its hard to be bullish on these markets over the coming months

I am VERY bearish on all 3 markets medium term

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Monday, October 29, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil and CAD futures

I have been tracking ideas in 6C (CAD futures) and Oil since the September 14th highs, and i suspect that the decline will end up being a 3 wave decline in both markets

As per this weeks article, (see last 2 posts ) we have what appears to be a 3 wave advance on the US$ (DX), it just so happens that that too started from Sept 14th , so tracking a potential high in the DX, should see a low in both 6C and Oil

If you look closely there appears to be a potential 5 wave decline ending on Oil, so that is a great clue for an end to both 6C and USDCAD spot markets

 Remember 6C is the CAD futures so opposite to the USDCAD spot market

A small low towards the measured 1x1 fibbo target at $83.80, i suspect align with a low in 6C and high in USDCAD, so traders can also watch the DX to see if a strong rejection under 80.50

Friday, July 20, 2012

Crude Oil Arbitrage

You can see how Oil has gone berserk for the last few days, but yesterday was contract roll over from the Jul to Aug

So i suspect the shorts have been blown out of the water, the last time Oil tried to go it alone, it fell back to reality (middle of May)

Using the patterns on the precious metal could be a vital clue on oil, as the advance, although strong has been in 3 waves, and we have not seen the metals follow

A strong break under $89 will be a strong clue of a reversal, target is under $75

Hint: Silver is below and if you click the Gold link on the right hand side it will show you the Gold ideas. I am sure you can work it out from that.

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil

Knowing the potential pattern in a position goes a long way in Elliott Wave theory, having simply crashed to a near $25 decline, the correction was going to be a problem for traders without the hindsight of some Elliott Wave knowledge

Considering the strong decline, i suspect Ellioticians would have labeled that as a 3rd wave, so a 4th wave bounce was due and there were a few patterns that could have traced out, but the likely pattern is usually a triangle in the 4th wave position (you need 5 waves for an impulse wave)

As you can see it appears to be setting up, although triangles do have a nasty habit of expanding, but if the bounce remains weak and holds under $85, this market appears to be setting up for a thrust lower

Its held under the preferred area of $84, so we remain sellers under $85 short term with a target of $75

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil

This is a great example of why i trust what i see and not what i read or other peoples opinions

Elliott Wave gives you that flexibility

Elliott Wave foretold the decline, is it a 100% certainly? of course not, but when i see corrective price action that is sloppy and looks like a 3 wave bounce, that is telling experienced Elliotticians that the next move is most likely lower

The result speak for itself!

From $92.19 it looks like a small wave [iv] and [v] needed to finish a 5 wave decline, from there some sort of upside should be seen, i suspect it will align with the US$ reversing and other risk markets

No Iran news, no war news, just simply following price, thats all we need and trust what we see

If you understand price you can gain a massive edge on the probability of the next move

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil

This is one idea i am watching, although from the $106.48 area this looks like its needs a new low to complete a 5 wave decline.

Support is at the $95 area and we can watch the RSI for a positive divergence.

Its a tough wave count to label this as a Bearish 12 12, although its possible but its a little "forced"

Regardless of that, going forward, if we see a 5 wave decline from $106.48, then at least a 3 wave bounce is expected, and further downside could be setting up as per the idea shown.

We need a 7 wave decline for a WXY pattern, the last bounce into $106.48 is a little short to label it as a [b] wave of a 3-3-5 flat, so going to watch this idea going forward in the coming days

Strong support around $95

Friday, May 4, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Crude Oil


Thats some decline huh!!

I posted the 1st chart on twitter, a few days back, and it appears to have come off really well.

Sadly this is one of those occasions where you can be correct on your analysis but wrong on the trade

What does that mean?

I got stopped at $105.80 on that spike, so even though you can call the direction right, if you dont get a decent entry and keep yourself in the trade , you can still have a loosing trade

I could so a special "marketing post" like my competitors and tell readers how superb the trade was, but sadly that would be simply lying

This is a great example, that doing your best sometimes, simply is not enough

Whats the moral of this post?

Sometimes you do your best and it still dont reward you with a successful trade.

It happens, and anyone that thinks they can avoid it is dreaming, fortunately i and members have had a good week, so made up and more for this small loss

Just keep doing your best and taking the quality set ups the rest will take care of itself

So when you see a successful outcome with charts, just remember actually trading the idea is little different to showing some charts

Saturday, April 21, 2012


The correlation between Oil and AUDUSD is still strong and i dont think you are going to see a strong move lower in risk markets whilst these 2 markets are firm.

The Bulls in both markets are defending key areas:

AUDUSD - 1.0300

Oil (crude) - $102

Each time the bears have tried to take out those areas the markets have held firm, thats a positive for the bulls in risk and the bears need to respect that, dips are buying opportunities against the lows made on 11/04

But i prefer to buy the dips around $102 on Oil and $1.0300 on AUDUSD, as if you are going to see a "full on" risk sell off, those areas imo wont hold, but the declines in most risk markets are corrective atm and support the idea of looking higher in "some" not all but "some" markets

I suspect we are going to see other markets peel away, but a select few are still holding firm, noticeably these 2 markets