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Showing posts with label Stocks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stocks. Show all posts

Saturday, January 11, 2014

BRK Vs SPX (Where Buffett goes so does the SPX)

The title says it all.

I am not sure who leads who but the one thing i want to point out is that BRK is basically the SPX, well it has been from the 2009 lows.

If you overlay both markets you can clearly see that.

So that brings me to the point of the post.

If you look at BRK it appears to have failed to push to a new high, i was actually expecting it to move higher in alignment with the SPX moving towards 1850SPX, but we may have a truncation in place.

The prior price action appears to be a small triangle, which i suspect is in the position of a 4th wave in a 5 wave sequence from the 2011 lows. If BRK has just truncated, and we see more weakness, then it should not be long before the SPX follows based on the correlation.

My primary idea is this is a simple 3 wave bounce from 2009 as shown in black, my alternative idea is that the high we just saw is wave [3]. So i am still expecting a pullback towards $100 (BRK.B) if the idea in blue.

If BRK pulls back then by default the SPX should/will pullback.

Seeing $100 on BRK.B is around 15%. So if we slice 15% off the SPX that's around 1550-1570 SPX which is the target i would be expecting for my alternative idea on the SPX (not shown).

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of XLF Vs SPX

The advance from the 2009 lows on the XLF so far appears to be a 3 wave move. Its nearly met the measured target where wave [C] = [A], so in Elliott Wave terms we can label it as a potential ABC corrective advance.

Although a bullish move, its actually a bearish bounce against the decline from 2007-2009. its almost at the 50% retrace levels as well.

One of the reasons i suspect the SPX move from the 2009 lows is a B wave is the XLF showing a 3 wave bounce. A check of the history between the 2 markets reveals that in true bull markets the XLF and SPX tend to move in tandem.

If the XLF is actually coming to a conclusion and ending its cycle from the 2009 lows, then i would suspect the trend in the SPX will end as well

Interesting times ahead for both markets, the bulls need to really confirm a strong uptrend in both markets.

Failure to move much higher here could be a warning sign for the bulls.

Friday, April 19, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL

I have received a few requests for this stock and could i explain my projections and ideas.

Normally i don't really do requests, expect from members, but as its been more than a few requests i am going to make an exception.

If seems many bulls are still pulling their hair out trying to understand what is going on and i think many are "desperately" trying to convince themselves that this is suddenly going to rally back to the lofty highs it attained at the $700 mark.

Having studied and researched the DNA of many "blow offs' in history it was without doubt IMO a blow off, to those analysts that actually took the time to research this, you could see all the hallmarks of a mania and the likely reversal that ALWAYS occurs after such a move.

Gold, Silver, Oil, other commodities etc, AAPL traded like a commodity and reversed like a commodity as well. A momentum driven speculative bubble driven on greed.

Lets start with some of the basics to a "blow off"

1. Parabolic curve and insane angle -  AAPL clearly had this as i posted right before the "top" (check)

2. Mania herding - Traders piling in at the top, not a care in the world, revised targets every day, cant do no wrong, its the easiest trade in the world, Grandma and Grandpa are making tons of money. (check)

It was clearly a speculative mania, that brought almost everyone to buy this stock.

Remember the calls for $1000, 1200 etc. its the easiest call on the planet to just  follow others.

People giving their life savings to a rookie such as Andy Zaky of Bullish Cross is a classic example of greed and how the mighty have fallen. Zaky destroyed many lives in the process as well, although he is not to be blamed, the investors that never understood the risk have to accept their mistakes as well.


3. Greed and denial -  When i made the call on Twitter to get out of AAPL at $700 as it was likely going to crash  i was harassed for days and abused by the bulls, i had emails calling me names and telling me i was a fool and an idiot, AAPL will never go down because it makes gazillliioonnnsss, and a cash cow, that was basically the gist of the emails.

Oh how wrong those AAPL bulls were. If they just stopped to look at history they really could have saved themselves a lot of pain. Instead of looking at history, the AAPL bulls were too busy counting the millions of $$ that they thought they would be getting and not looking at the potential for things to go wrong.

4. I guess a completed Elliott Wave pattern, that suggests the end to the trend and end of wave 5 would help as well , i posted this to members before the peak.

So lets look at what is going on in AAPL and what i expect to happen going forward

Long term

If you look at the long term chart it shows a 5 wave advance from the lows made in 1997, and furthermore you can clearly see it was a 5th wave "blow off"

Its rare to see such a move in a stock, as generally extended 5th waves are seen in commodities, such as the move we saw on oil into the all time high in 2008.

Having put in a 5 wave advance into the $700 area, the likely target and guideline is for the market to come back and test the 2nd wave of the extended 5th wave.

So that's basically a test of $200 (red line). Before readers disregard this target, i want to point out, "my precious" AAPL was at $700 and now sits at just under $400.

If the trend keeps moving lower and it shows no sign of reversing and the declines are moving lower in 5 waves and correcting in 3 wave bounces, then i expect the $200 area to be reached. (subject to bounces and corrections)

There is a 2nd target lower down and target the $75 area, although for now the $200 still seems the safer bet and another 50% haircut from current levels.

Medium term

Its not a clean picture although its clearly moving lower, its not showing much clarity, hence i suggest focusing on the short term charts for trades and risk analysis. When its unclear on a time frame, its much better to move to a time frame that does make sense.

Short term

Whilst it remains under $437.98 we can continue to look lower, whist the medium picture is a little confusing with regards to the Elliott Wave on a 4hr and daily level.

On a 60 and 120 min level its much clearer and we can use $437.98 as a key area the bears must defend.

It appears to be a small 5 wave decline from $437.98, so if a small bounce is seen in 3 waves it will offer traders the chance to sell the market.

Elliott Wave Analysis of IBM

With earnings out after the close on Thursday the potential now is a for a substantial reversal, i have been waiting for the release before i would make a strong conclusion as to where i think the stock is heading next.

The potential now for a strong decline is very real and one that swing traders can take advantage of, with the stock likely to open around the $200 area, the bears now need to see a substantial break here and really confirm the long term peak in place.

The advance from the 2009 lows counts well enough for a completed 5 wave impulse wave and it also appears that it has ended on a triangle "thrust" for wave [5] of what i believe is a larger wave C.

Short term i suspect the decline after hours is potentially a small "3rd of 3rd" so inside a 3rd wave, and more gyrations needed to complete a larger 5 wave decline from its  all time high at $216, its important now for the bears to hold it under $206 and the sellers to arrive and push it lower.

If that is the case and we have a meaningful top in place, things are just getting started.

If we take a look at the long term view, the potential for a very important top is serious enough to warrant watching.

If it has put in a serious top, the decline from here is likely in the order of what happened to AAPL.

Get the popcorn, this could be a great ride.

Edit - If the gap down today holds, the alt idea (which was my orignal preferred idea) is wave 4 of an ending diagonal, so rallies back above $206 then onwards to new ATH for wave 5 of the ED


Thursday, December 20, 2012

Market Report: Using Goldman and JP Morgan to Predict Turning Points

Goldman (GS)

A couple of stocks I like to follow are GS and JPM to forecast pivot turning points in the US stock markets, particularly the SPX.

You can see how JPM and GS appear to be tracking the SPX well and that it's my belief that if we can track potential Elliott Wave counts in both Goldman and JPM, we can find an edge to the US markets and use that information to forecast major peaks and turns in the US stock markets.

If you overlay SPX, GS and JPM with each other, there is a clear bonding between the 3 markets.

SPX versus GS and JPM

Read the rest at : http://www.safehaven.com/article/28134/market-report-using-goldman-and-jp-morgan-to-predict-turning-points

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Google (GOOG)


This pair pushed a little higher than i initially thought and just pushed just above the 2007 highs, which was a natural place for buy stops, the fact that its declined in a 5 wave decline suggests that there is a very high probability that GOOG is setting up for a strong break lower

With a 5 wave decline and a potential 3 wave bounce to the 50% retracement and inside the area of the prior 4th wave of one lesser degree, this is a good spot for a strong reversal

The bears need to see a strong break under $680 then $658 to confirm the advance is a likely a 3 wave and more downside is expected

So this could be a terrific play to buy some puts, as the expected next move would be under $560

Saturday, November 24, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AG (First Majestic Corp)

This is great looking tex book pattern and one that suggests more upside, if you ever wanted to count a nice looking potential 5 wave impulse move then this is a great example, although its still needs a bit higher i suspect it should push higher to end this advance and towards $24.50 is an objective

We can use this idea for watching Silver as they appear to track each other well, although this stock like all stocks does have the problem of weakness if the main US stock markets dump, like we just saw over the past few weeks

But with an expected move higher in the precious metals (due to expected US$ weakness) we should see both US stocks and the precious metals lift higher, which will aid this stock higher towards its objective

A nice looking Zig Zag for wave [ii], and an expanded flat for wave [iv], so alternation between the corrective waves

A strong move higher suggests a 3rd wave with a 38.2% retrace of wave [iii] for wave [iv] that's a common fibbo retracement

All in all a decent example so far of a text book Elliott Wave 5 wave impulse, so lets see if we can get the final pieces to end the advance

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of DOW

Post taken from the forum

If Friday ended wave [iii] then we should be spending a bit of time chopping around in a 4th wave and my best guess is a test of the 12800 area, the alternative is that Fridays bounce was part of an on-going 3rd wave and simply a subdivision of a longer 3rd wave, but there is enough gyrations to consider wave [iii] in place and a move back towards 12800.

Fridays bounce is a potential start but not enough to convince me fully yet, if would need to hold in Globex in Sunday/Monday and hold above Fridays low in Globex before I suspect then the US markets head higher.

A strong gap down suggests the alternative in blue and its simply subdividing and still inside a 3rd wave which is a very bearish wave count, so it’s going to come down to the movements in Globex to help confirm negate this idea shown.

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of DOW

The advance from the June lows has taken on a slightly different set of waves depending on which market you look at, as the DOW has an overlap on the last series of waves where as the other markets such as the SPX does not possess that overlap (as shown)

Considering that the DOW is the easy market to run higher, i don't think its a bullish sign when you have sloppy price action on the leader of the pack at the highs

The bulls seldom appear to forget this important clue when it comes to be truthful to what is happening in the markets, the DOW is showing some sign of weakness against other markets

Because of the overlap we can label the advance as an ending diagonal (wedge to non Elliotticians) as we have an overlap between waves 1 and 4 which is a requirement for an ending diagonal

If this is the correct interpretation then it should be on the verge of a complete reversal and retrace all of the rally from the June lows

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of AAPL

The advance from the lows at $565 looks to be ending a potential 5 wave rally. However what is that rally part of? If you know the answer to that, you should have 2 important decisions to make:

1) The direction of the next large move in AAPL

2) The direction of the next large move in the NDX

Most traders should be aware of the close relationship between AAPL and the NDX, so its important to follow AAPL as it has such an important effect due to the weighting in the NDX

If you want to follow the next likely outcome, then come and join us, we cant make promises but you have a game plan to take with you going forward, and most importantly what we are expecting and where the idea looks wrong

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Market Report: Waiting for Waddle

QE or not, this is the question that most want the answer to come Wednesday 20th June.

Frankly to me it makes no difference as an Elliottician, I follow price and make my decision based on what the waves create.

Many are going into this weekend calling for the end of days as if Greece getting a new government sends the world into mad max.

Yet ordinary folks around the world will get on with their lives as the Greece elections take place. Some probably will never even know Greece has an election this weekend.

Regardless of the outcome of both those events, we will trade it as we see it. The same as we always do, we look for high quality low risk reward trades.

Inter-market Analysis

Back towards the end of May I was actively looking for a reversal in the markets as the world was preaching the end of the Euro zone and a crash was around the corner, well crash or no crash, I felt it got a little too bearish and those late to the party bears needed a harsh lesson about staying out too late.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/25849/market-report-waiting-for-waddle

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ES (e-mini S&P)

The last few days have seen some nasty whipsaw, and i still suspect its an ABC advance, as what you have seen is a strong wave A, then a deep wave B, followed by a wave [c] only this is what we call an ending diagonal (ED), then whipsaw is classic of that pattern, as its created a number of moves to cause trouble for both Bears and Bulls a like

But if this is complete we should be ready to puke now

Under 1325 then 1317ES are the 1st and 2nd clues

Resistance at 1330ES

Thats some nasty set of waves, but look carefully you can see its only just over its measured move target

So as it stands, it looks like a simple ABC advance

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of NIK-225 (Japan)

This has been one great market to count waves, and virtually text book so far, a great example to newbies on counting

Still looking for that overall 5000 area, although it needs under the last major lows in March 2009 for the minimum target on the idea from the 1989 high.

Over 900 points lower, this is simply the market that keep on giving, whilst Bearish traders have been fighting the tape on the US markets, all they had to do was have a look at the Japan markets and you would have yourselves an easy trade

I have no reason to suspect any difference, its done what i wanted, although this is only a market i seldom update for a few clients as its a free market, but when its like this you dont need to complicate it.

You simply remain short and bring down stops occasionally, you simply use key areas to denote where the idea is wrong, and run the trade.

What can be easier?

I wrote this on 16th April

"I suspect we have finished an expanded flat for wave 2 of [C] and head lower, we should not be seeing above 10k for the foreseeable future "

One month on it sits approx 900 points lower.

Do i see 7k before 10k?

Friday, May 18, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of RIO Rio Tinto

Looks like we could be seeing the March 2009 lows and lower, that should be a great buy, a simple 5 wave decline in the crash of 2008 for wave A

The wave B as a 3 wave bounce

So wave C back to test the March 2009 lows again in 5 waves, if this is correct then we are now in a 3rd of 3rd and a strong move lower

Bears need to keep it under the 3200 area (red line)

You can see how highly correlated Rio is to the FTSE, this count works well as i am looking for minimum of the Oct 2011 lows and around 4800 on the FTSE (predication made when the FTSE was at near 6000)

Elliott Wave Analysis of CAT (Caterpillar)

Another stock that should be on its way to the $65 area, and see the Oct 2011 lows tested, looks like a wave [iii] of 3.

Elliott Wave Analysis of GS (Goldman Sachs)

An update to the squid aka Goldman Sachs

Looks like these guys are in deep trouble, no need to change the wave count, its reversed well from its target, so we should exentually see the Oct 2011 lows over the coming weeks

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of HUI

1st target hit, so far a potential daily hammer if this can hold, the target was an obvious area as soon it broke the granite floor, so its important for the Bulls to make their mark, as my next target is 250

Sunday, May 13, 2012

Market Report: Perched on the Edge

Another great week of volatility, which is what traders want to trade, although we are perched now on the edge and an important choice needs to be made, very similar to what happened last year around this time.

I left readers with this chart from last weeks' article

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/25412/market-report-perched-on-the-edge

Monday, May 7, 2012

Market Report: Bears Get a Glimmer of Hope

Market Report: Bears Get a Glimmer of Hope - Nouf - May 6/12

Some crazy moves seen in the risk markets this past week, and potentially some important clues, but I suspect that not many traders are actually watching those clues, although they will do soon if those clues continue.

So what are these clues?

2 forex pairs I follow and have followed for a long time, especially over the past 3 years have been AUDUSD and NZDUSD, they imo are very important clues to where other risk markets will go.

We live in an age of margin, no more do we have a value market, what we have is a carry trade market. For those that have watched the markets for while already should know this, there are certain aspects of the markets that make up what we call "risk on" or "risk off", 2 key forex pairs being AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/25332/market-report-bears-get-a-glimmer-of-hope

Saturday, May 5, 2012

What is the message?

Whats the message that this chart is telling us?

If you want to find out, and all the others ideas we are tracking next week, sign up and make sure you got yourselves an edge

The markets are starting to get really chaotic, do yourselves a favor and get yourselves an edge