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Showing posts with label TNX. Show all posts
Showing posts with label TNX. Show all posts

Sunday, April 20, 2014


Looking around for an edge, i noticed the TNX yields have yet to make a new low, that is basically the same idea as the USDJPY and NIK-225 ideas and at least one more new low needed

So this current rally i believe is a "head fake" and a trap for the bulls. If i am correct then we should see a reversal in all 3 markets.

The SPX is making minor new yearly and all time highs, but "under the hood" USDJPY and TNX (10 year yields) are not confirming the SPX move, hence i believe this rally is still a trap.

If yields on TNX and TYX are correcting the previous rally into the new year highs we should still see a bit more downside on yields, hence stocks move lower along with USDJPY.

ZB and ZN should move higher etc.

So whilst US stocks are giving an impression of a bullish setup, i caution traders to be too bullish as the moves into the last 2 highs on SPX (ie the last 2 all time highs) were not confirmed by TNX and USDJPY, we saw the result of that non confirmation.

Unless USDJPY and TNX joins the party the move on the SPX and US stocks is probably a "bluff" and the bulls will be trapped again.