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Showing posts with label USD/CAD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USD/CAD. Show all posts

Sunday, November 30, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD (Short term)

Short term patterns suggest USDCAD can see a bit more upside and make new yearly highs.

From 1.1181 Its working a 5 wave impulse wave, furthermore I suspect its ended (or close to ending) wave [iii], so a pullback that holds above 1.1317 should setup for a move higher and target new highs.

Trade idea: Readers can look to buy a pullback around 1.1360-380. stops needs to be placed at 1.1317

Take profits at 1.1470 or above.

Saturday, May 4, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDCAD

A small minor low here should complete a C wave of a flat pattern, which is likely ending a larger [X] wave and setting up a move towards 1.0700-800, so a good potential setup for a swing trade

I am really looking for support to be found around the 1.000, the 200DMA sits around that area as well.

For swing traders this is a great looking setup and the exact sort of setup that Elliott Wave traders thrive on.

So traders want to be actively looking for support on or above 1.000-1.0050

Monday, October 29, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of Oil and CAD futures

I have been tracking ideas in 6C (CAD futures) and Oil since the September 14th highs, and i suspect that the decline will end up being a 3 wave decline in both markets

As per this weeks article, (see last 2 posts ) we have what appears to be a 3 wave advance on the US$ (DX), it just so happens that that too started from Sept 14th , so tracking a potential high in the DX, should see a low in both 6C and Oil

If you look closely there appears to be a potential 5 wave decline ending on Oil, so that is a great clue for an end to both 6C and USDCAD spot markets

 Remember 6C is the CAD futures so opposite to the USDCAD spot market

A small low towards the measured 1x1 fibbo target at $83.80, i suspect align with a low in 6C and high in USDCAD, so traders can also watch the DX to see if a strong rejection under 80.50

Monday, October 1, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of EURUSD

I was originally working 2 ideas, and initially thought the decline would be a small 4th wave pull back, but due to the time aspect, i suspect this is a larger wave [iv] and target the 38.2% fibbo retrace of wave [iii] around 12775

The June highs come in at around 12745, there is the room to push lower if needed, although the decline from the high on wave ( what i suspect is wave [iii]) appears to be corrective looking and a 38.2% retracement of wave [iii] is a normal correction for wave [iv]

So any small bounce that fails under 129 should lead to a new low, a strong bid above 12959 suggests the low is in and a move to 13250 is suggested

If we are working a triple ZZ in EURUSD it seems likely that we will see a reversal in both AUDUSD and 6C (aka USDCAD in reverse), so its important to be watching all 3 markets as i suspect if the EURUSD reverses higher it will see a risk on bid higher, and i suspect US stocks will get a bid as well

So even e-mini traders should be watching the EURUSD pair from here

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

6C Futures (aka CADUSD) and ES

It looks like we have a nice arbitrage going on here, virtually every time i see the spread widening out, the ES gets a head of itself

So at some stage these markets will need to close the gap. That means the ES pukes or the 6C contract lifts higher (USDCAD pukes)

But the advance appears to be a corrective move so strongly favors a reversal in both markets, so the trade could be to sell the ES, as that has the most to gain.

The wild card is the FOMC later, so its not a great choice of set up to trade before the release of the statement, but still if no QE, my guess based on the idea is the lot simply comes right back off

Support on USDCAD 1.0150

Saturday, June 16, 2012

Intermarket Analysis

Just before the turn, i mentioned to members that with a 5 wave move seen in virtually all the DX crosses (USDCAD, GBPUSD,EURUSD and USDCHF) a strong reversal was setting up

You could see a 5 wave move from the May 1st period, there was way too much bearishness around at the time on EURUSD and GBPUSD, and that needed to be eradicated

Well fast forward we are getting those bounces as predicated from the Elliott Wave pattern

The Bearishness has worn off, the Bears are coming out of hiding on the US$ (surprise surprise)

Yes those that were tracking the 5 wave pattern on the DX knew BEFORE that there was a big reversal looming for the US$ and to get out of shorts on GBPUSD and EURUSD, and longs on USDCHF and USDCAD

As a 3 wave correction was due, the result speaks for itself

Here is what i wrote on 30th May

"With a 5 wave move suspected on EURUSD coming to an end from May 1st, we also have what appears as a 5 wave move on GBPUSD, you can see how these have mirror each other, and opposite the DX and USDCHF markets"

Using the forex markets foretold of the bounce in US equity markets such as the DOW and SPX as "risk on" was back and the trend from the May 1st highs was over and needed a correction

Saturday, June 9, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of 6C Futures

Following on from my last post


It did indeed push to a 5th wave low and a reversal as expected, and it appears to be involved in some sort of correction to correct the move from the May 1st period, as i posted before the same 5 wave move is seen on many of the US$ crosses such as GBPUSD,EURUSD and even USDCHF, so virtually all the majors that are linked with the DX are in a correction mode.

Now corrections have a nasty habit of making life tough for traders, so it comes down to experience as there are many forms this can take, but if you overlay the 6C chart with the ES you can clearly see how using the 6C pair is a useful tool for US stock markets aka the ES e-mini contract

So with a 5 wave decline in US stock markets as well as the 6C contract the odds say that we are involved in a correction now in both US stocks as well as USDCAD aka 6C

6C = USDCAD inverted

Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of USD/CAD

So far its a bit short of the target zone but it may or may not drop short.

If i had my way i would like to see a push just under 0.9900 to clear out stops and then see an aggressive reversal

It looks like we have the same crew that were loving the US$ at the highs telling us they hate the US$ at the lows

Same ole same ole

Traders love buying the high, and don't want to buy the lows

My work suggests a potential setup and a great one as well

Now nothing is ever certain and it would be wrong of me to say its a 100& sure thing, as NOTHING is 100%, but lets just say i prefer to fade the crowd at suspected highs and lows

The crowd is not always wrong, as this may well puke, but then i would only take a small loss anyhow as unless i saw a strong reversal i would consider this idea as a failure

But right now i am liking this idea very much, and looking to be a buyer at this area

We have some fibbo support as well as some strong support around this area at the 0.9900 area

But a run under the wave W lows (Oct lows) and see a rally thats aggressive is what i want to see

The alternative is a crash like move that see this under 0.9400

This is a key FX pair along with AUD/USD as if the trends continue then the trade is a full on risk setup

USD/CAD puking and AUD/USD rallying is a "risk on" and that says stocks remain higher

However if this pair reverses along with AUD/USD then you have a "risk off" setup