Elliott Wave Training

Are you looking to learn the Elliott Wave principle? Or maybe you already have some experience and want to find the ways to improve your skills better.

Click on this post for details:


Showing posts with label USD/JPY. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USD/JPY. Show all posts

Saturday, November 29, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

Update to this chart i posted on StockTwits: http://stocktwits.com/message/29564320

Wave [iv] took on a slightly different pattern, but it held nicely above 117.00, I am still looking for a new high towards 119+ to complete what I believe is a 5 wave advance from the Oct 15th lows.

The RSI is showing some heavy divergence, which fits in with the idea of a 5th wave.

The trend from Oct 15th is getting stretched and i suspect its close to a significant reversal, initial targets are back to the 115 area.

Sunday, September 14, 2014

USDJPY Vs YM (Dow Futures)

The move from Oct 2011 is the most important chart to follow in my opinion, as i am still looking for a 5 wave completed advance in the US markets from the Oct 2011.

Overlaying the USDJPY against the YM futures we can see we have a high correlation, the thing to note is if USDJPY is ending a 5th wave from the Oct 2011 lows then it stands to reason that YM should also be ending a 5 wave move.Thus if both markets are now in a terminal 5th wave we should be very close to completing the cycle from the 2011 lows.

So it seems the more important chart to follow is USDJPY, aka JPY carry trade.

For those that have been in the markets will note that leverage works both ways, and once the leverage component of the markets reverses, nasty things happen.

I want to expand on the last Gold post. lets add Gold to the mix.

It still seem the markets are still linked the USDJPY (aka JPY carry trade). So one could reasonably come to the conclusion that until USDJPY reverses, we are unlikely to see a big reversal in either YM or GC.

Of course its never as easy as it seems, we may see some diveregcnes but there is still a high correlation between YM (US markets) Gold and USDJPY (JPY carry trade).

Sunday, April 20, 2014


Looking around for an edge, i noticed the TNX yields have yet to make a new low, that is basically the same idea as the USDJPY and NIK-225 ideas and at least one more new low needed

So this current rally i believe is a "head fake" and a trap for the bulls. If i am correct then we should see a reversal in all 3 markets.

The SPX is making minor new yearly and all time highs, but "under the hood" USDJPY and TNX (10 year yields) are not confirming the SPX move, hence i believe this rally is still a trap.

If yields on TNX and TYX are correcting the previous rally into the new year highs we should still see a bit more downside on yields, hence stocks move lower along with USDJPY.

ZB and ZN should move higher etc.

So whilst US stocks are giving an impression of a bullish setup, i caution traders to be too bullish as the moves into the last 2 highs on SPX (ie the last 2 all time highs) were not confirmed by TNX and USDJPY, we saw the result of that non confirmation.

Unless USDJPY and TNX joins the party the move on the SPX and US stocks is probably a "bluff" and the bulls will be trapped again.

Saturday, April 19, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of NIK-225 & USDJPY

Bottom line: Sell Japan, I think both markets still need at least one more leg lower to complete a corrective WXY decline from their respective peaks.


If you take a non-biased approach and simply counted the decline as you see it, you can clearly see there are 7 swings from 105.34 - 100.74, so by definition its a corrective decline, or part of a larger more complex pattern. The move from 100.74 - 104.12 is also a corrective set of waves and thus labeled a corrective bounce.

This would still imply that USDJPY should see a move back under 100.74 to complete a potential WXY correction from 105.34, ideally targeting towards 99.50.

The market is bearish under 104.12, whilst it remains under that area we should see at least a new swing low under 100.74. Resistance is between 102.80 - 103.50 but its subject to the current bounce.


The decline from 16452 - 13943 appears to be a 7 swing move, so by definition its a corrective decline or at least part of a larger more complex pattern.

The move from 13943 - 15236 is again a corrective series of waves, if you take a closer look you will notice the large divergence between the 2 markets, a sure sign of an impending reversal.

When we see this inter-market divergence its generally seen at reversal points, in this case it was a peak for both markets, but we can also see that sort of divergence at major lows as well, 2 markets that follow in each others footsteps suddenly diverge from one another.

Whilst the NIK-225 is under 15236 we should see at least a new low towards 13500 possibly towards 13000 depending on the next decline.

Based upon the current wave structure it still appears to be missing at least another leg lower in both markets, so the moral of the story is to look to sell Japan for a move lower.

USDJPY is bearish below 104.12

NIK-225 is bearish below 15236

NIK-225 = NIK-225 futures not the cash market

Its now closing in on my initial target i had targeted back in  Dec 2013, way before this current decline, such is the power of Elliott Wave used in  the right hands.

If it remains as a corrective looking decline, then it could potentially be a large 4th wave, which would imply new yearly highs to come before the trend is finished from the 2009 lows.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Market Report: JPY Carry Trade Reversal?

In my last article I left readers with the potential idea of a peak in the US markets, although we saw a minor pullback, it was not the move or the initial decline I am expecting.

Although this minor new high in the SPX has caused me to adjust my wave counts a little, the thesis is still on track and I am expecting a large decline in the markets, in the early part of 2014.

Bearish Idea

S&P500 Weekly Bearish Idea Chart
Larger Image

I suspect this last spike we have seen over the past week is wave 5 of [5], so whilst it can push a bit higher I do think it's close to a reversal.

Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/32234/market-report-jpy-carry-trade-reversal

Friday, December 20, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

I last wrote about this pair back in Oct see here: http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/10/elliott-wave-analysis-of-usdjpy.html

In that article i mentioned the fact that i believed the USDJPY was setting up for an exciting trade, true to its word it do not disappoint.

Having had a 105 for a few months now, the last few gyrations of this market appear to have possibly been put in place.

We have met those targets i put out in the Oct post.

Now that does not necessary mean a top is locked in place, what is does say is that i am no longer bullish this pair.

I am extremely cautious and looking for signs of a major top in USDJPY and have warned members that the time for being bullish is potentially over, we need to tread VERY CAREFULLY.

I am targeting a major move lower, one that can see towards the 95.00 area.

With the setup on NIK-225, I think 2014 could be once again "all about the JPY"

Bulls consider this a warning.



Saturday, October 5, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

I believe there is an exciting setup now in this pair.

I have been working the triangle idea idea for a while now and its been working well, much to the disgust of bulls and bears, the whipsaw has been rather text book Elliott Wave.



Its worked out surprisingly well, but we are at a cross roads where a big choice will be made for this pair.

When we look at the short term structure it looks like a small ending diagonal (ED), as part of wave [E] of the larger wave 4.

Which as the patterns suggests is a terminal pattern.

The large weekly triangle is invalidated under 95.82, but we can also limit risk  to 96.25 as that's where the short term ED idea is invalidated, so the closer this moves to 96.25 then less risk you are exposed to.

So the risk is limited, the gain is potentially a strong break higher, considerably more than the risk.

An alternate set up i am also watching is what i call the "Da bull tri trap".  Where the upside will be limited and potentially setup for a move lower to test 92.00. (not shown as its reserved for members).

We wont know until we see the next course of events, but suffice to say i will adjust accordingly and members will be on top of the next big move in this pair.

Interested in following our ideas on this pair and other forex pairs we follow?

For $30 a month, it might just be the bargain you never thought possible, i don't charge silly prices, i try to accommodate the small trader, up to the institutional trader. All are welcome.

Saturday, June 29, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY (short term)

One idea i am following is a potential 5 wave advance from 93.79, currently i suspect its on its finals stages, although any decline that holds up above 98.24 will keep the trend looking higher and target towards the psychological target of 100.

So on the open from Sunday, traders can look to buy into weakness with a stop at 98.24, as that is the risk point for continuous upside and completion of this setup.

Take profits on any new high, once wave [v] of the larger wave [v] appears to be in place, between 99.50-100.

Monday, June 3, 2013

USDJPY VS ES (Elliott Wave)

Most traders that are trading the ES and USDJPY markets are probably aware of the correlation between the 2 markets.

However there is a bullish setup, and whilst many are looking at the H&S patterns on both the ES and USDJPY markets.

I would like to bring to your attention a bullish setup which IMO needs respecting, as if the USDJPY is involved in an ED (ending diagonal) and fails to break under 99.59 and the bulls step up and support the 100 area, i suspect it could align with a potential bullish setup on the ES, and a low around the 1620ES is bought in parallel with the JPY pairs moving higher.

The trading world expects a strong breakdown now in US stocks and whilst i wont deny its not a potential bearish setup if the bears see heavy selling today in the European session, but if there is NO follow through to Fridays late day dump in US stocks and we only see a minor new low to around the 1620ES and the ED idea on the USDJPY holds firm.

I would caution the bears that are expecting a strong breakdown, whilst i would prefer to see a strong breakdown in both US stocks and the USDJPY ( as it makes my job easier) i have to respect what i see, as i write this post the potential is there for the bulls to step up a bit lower on both markets.

The way i see it, its up to the bears to deliver and continue lower from Fridays dump in US stocks.

The bears need a confirmation of the JPY pairs to dump to see more downside in US stocks

Failure to break back above 1640ES and 101.25 USDJPY short term keeps the trend looking lower on both markets.

Saturday, April 27, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY (short term)

Update to the idea i posted last week http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/04/elliott-wave-analysis-of-usdjpy-short.html

It seems the bulls got trapped for the 3rd time, with everyone dead sure it was going to 100, the market generally does not make it that easy.

I was reading many traders getting long right into our sell target zone i highlighted in my last post.

It simply amazed me that many traders would even buy into a move just underneath the 100 area and looking for a few pips, when the risk as we have seen has been nasty if you were long looking for the same trade 99% of traders were looking at.

Its a good job we were looking lower and not caught out by the market making a trap.

Elliott Wave analysis nailed the move, whilst everyone looking higher we were looking lower.

There is the potential for some sort of temporary low in place, although it would need to see a strong break above the 98.75 area 1st, its a bit early to say a low is in place, but if any bounce is corrective and fails to get above 98.75 then, i suspect we will see more downside and a much more complex decline, one that could take this well under 95.00.

The move from 99.88 appears to be a corrective decline, so based on the next bounce, it will confirm if this is setting up for more downside, as if its a weak 3 wave corrective bounce that fails under the blue line, its not a good sign for the bulls.



Saturday, April 20, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY (short term)

Short term this pair looks like a 3 wave bounce from 95.78.

By definition a 3 wave move is correction, so the odds suggest, that we likely see this advance from 95.78 completely retraced, i am looking for a reversal early next week from the 99.50-100 area.

I think this setup will offer trader the chance to sell this pair, if you look at the other JPY crosses you can see the same 3 wave look, some pairs like NZDJPY, AUDJPY and GBPJPY show a weaker move than the USDJPY

I would also watch the RSI if we saw a minor new high into the target area. A strong break under 98.50 should help confirm a several in place.

My longer term ideas are reserved for members.

Tuesday, March 19, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of NIK-225

Since my last post: http://wavepatterntraders.blogspot.com/2013/02/elliott-wave-usdjpy-vs-nik-225.html

The NIKKEI as expected has pushed higher in what i suspect is wave 5 from the lows made back in Oct 2012

If we look closer, it appears we need a minor new high, although the wave [iv] of 5 might take on a complex formation and chop around a bit more before heading higher

From 11067, it still lacks the new high needed to complete a 5 wave advance, although wave [iv] might chop around, before heading higher

I would be surprised if we saw a truncation, but that is something we should consider, its come a long way of the back of a "promise" and i suspect the market has go ahead of itself


If we look at the same date the rally in the NIK-225 started, and count the USDJPY pair, we can see that too is suggesting the end to a 5 wave rally from Oct 2012 and an important peak is nearing for both markets

Note: there is a way you can label USDJPY completed, as shown in the idea in blue, so its a truncated high, a strong break back under 94.00 will suggest that idea, the Cyprus gap down held the key 94.00 area, so the bullish case for one last high is still valid, and potentially aligns with the NIK-225 pushing to new highs

Bottom line: In my opinion bit these markets are very close to a substantial reversal, the trade to be long these markets is nearing a conclusion, every man and his dog is long this trade and when a market or trend is too obvious and we can see a 5 wave move, its time for caution,

The USDJPY and AUDJPY may have topped already as on the last high AUDJPY put in a new high but USDJPY failed to follow AUDJPY, but the patterns on both pairs can allow for a marginal new high, but i strongly suspect if a peak is not in then it will be on the next high, or i should say i strongly suspect that to be the case, and thats the way i am trading it personally

Do you notice the RSI divergence? that's classic on a 5th wave, so that's some evidence to support our ideas

The Oct 2012 low is key for many of the JPY pairs as some pairs count well for a potential 5 wave advance from that low, the AUDJPY can be counted complete, the USDJPY would be counted with a truncation, but both pairs may or may not see a new high, but even so, it is my opinion that new high should if come is a setup to sell

I am bearish the JPY crosses and actively looking for a reversal to sell and looking for evidence to sell NIK-225 based on a suspect 5 wave advance from the Oct 212 lows

Sunday, March 10, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

We turned bullish back in Feb 26th and looking for a return to the trend, we were focusing on the 90.50 as a target for the correction to end, although it actually truncated and reversed a bit earlier than we originally throught

Whilst many were proclaiming the top in for this pair, we stood firm with our analysis and expected to see a move back above 95.00 as the decline was a 3 wave expanded flat correction, and the decline was a wave [c] of the decline

Knowing what the likelihood of the next direction based of the proceeding pattern is very important and i suspect many have been too quick to sell this market and subsequently got run over as the market has behaved as we expected it to

Fast forward and it has worked out really well, i wont spare you the in between as its irrelevant, but i still think this pair has a lot more upside and buying the dips is still the trade

Members have been on the right side of this move and at NO time have we even begun to think about selling this market

Its simply suicide to sell a strong trend like this, until we see a complete pattern or a breakdown of our support areas, we remain bullish as ever and i suspect this will test the 100 mark if all goes to plan

If you are interested in following this pair and many more, take a free trial for 4 weeks

Who knows you might even enjoy coming over to the dark side and learning a thing or two about Elliott Wave

The long term wave counts are reserved for members

Sunday, February 24, 2013

Elliott Wave USDJPY Vs NIK-225

An addition to my last post reveals that the triangle idea might need revising as i noticed that it might also be happening on the NIK-225

So the wave [a] of the triangle needs to be placed at the Feb 15th lows, not as i initially suspected, that would align with a potential triangle as per the NIK-225

As most traders know the USDJPY and NIK-225 are trading virtually tick-tick, so its worth watching the NIK-225 for clues

Although the triangle is suspected to break to the upside, there is a "trap" that many traders miss, as shown on the NIK-225 chart, and that whilst many look to the upside, its actually a B wave triangle and you get a thrust lower and fool the majority of traders, although it quickly reverses once its took out the wave A stops

Although i don't suspect it atm, its always an option, as 4th waves are notorious for messing with traders and choppy them up to pieces, and this has been no exception

It is looking like some sort of 4th wave in progress on both markets, so that suggests once they have finished more upside expected in both markets, at least one more high needed to finish a 5 wave impulse move.

The very fact the declines are looking corrective looking,  supports the 4th wave idea currently in progress, so be prepared for more chop on both markets if its inside a triangle

Stops need to be placed at the wave [a] lows (Feb 15th) as triangles have a nasty habit of morphing and chopping traders up

The idea of a 4th wave also agrees with my work on EURJPY, AUDJPY , those 2 are the other main JPY crosses i follow, they too appear to be in a 4th wave patten, but not a triangle as i suspect on USDJPY and NIK-225

Saturday, February 23, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

It appears the USDJPY is tracing out a triangle.

How to trade it? that's what everyone that is reading this wants to know don't they??

That's the easy part, you simply place a stops at 92.20, as 1 pip below 92.21 the triangle is wrong

Although there is another idea that suggests a push towards 91.70, so traders could hedge its what we call "Elliott hedging"

But the objective is for traders to get long now and start looking higher, the trend is strong and suggests a triangle, which is a 4th wave of "some degree" so its likely going to test the 95.00-97.00 (subject the the triangle thrust) over the coming weeks, although the thrust to the upside will be a 5th wave to end a 5 wave sequence, so will pullback back to the 92.00 area again, but i am expecting a 95.00 test

Knowing your risk and objective is very important before you place a trade, if you don't have a plan, then you are better off going to Vegas

I would like to see a bit lower to around 92.50 before it setups a move higher, but a strong thrust higher is expected

So the lower this pushes to 92.21 then less risk you are exposed to

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY

This latest advance has seen a strong upside move and literally run over anyone that dared short these JPY pairs.

When i look closer i can see an obvious theme with these 3 crosses, although i only provide analysis on 2 of the 3 crosses they all appear to be suggesting the same message

Currently i think that the are pulling back in a small 4th wave, and expecting a bit of early weakness next week but then move higher in a 5th wave

So for the aggressive trader, i think there is a trade for both bull and bear, the bulls will want to look to buy into weakness, as i suspect a 5th wave to come in all 3 pairs, still could be another 200 pips to the upside in all 3 pairs

Once we see a 5 wave advance, then the bulls need to be getting out and taking the $$$, that's when the bears will likely have their chance to push the JPY crosses lower

With some important wave structure at daily level being suggested on USDJPY and EURJPY, the best part of the rally IMO has likely been seen

Now we can see a pullback that will probably be around 300-400 pips shortly, but 1st we want to see these 3 crosses complete a smaller 5 wave advance as shown

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Elliott Analysis of USDJPY

Short term i suspect what we have seen over the last few days of chop is a 4th wave triangle. From 81.72 there appears to be a 5 wave move, we have got a decent negative divergence so that's a positive for the idea of this now in a triangle thrust

A strong impulsive break back under 84.00 would help confirm a reversal, as i am still targeting 81.00-81.50 on the 4 hr charts

Friday, December 14, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

The relentless moves in the JPY pairs is impressive to say the least, truly a remarkable run we have seen in some of the JPY crosses, some pairs like the EURJPY and GBPJPY have seen massive gains.

Although not one to be outdone the USDJPY has followed in sync, only now i think its nearing a potential high that should yield a decent pullback of 200-250 pips.

Although any pullback is expected to be just a correction in the larger picture from Oct 2011.

I had a 85.00 target penciled in for this pair, and at the rate its going it will be seen shortly, although i cant say i thought we would see it so quick, i was looking for a timing high in sometime in January as you can see from this cycle chart.

From the October 2011 lows I am working a flat correction and it appears to be in wave [3] of C,move, it still lacks the last few gyrations for the move to have the right look to complete the overall look, hence the timing of a cycle high in January still looks to be on target, once wave [3] of C is complete we should see a correction in wave [4] for a few weeks that takes it into January 2013 and then potentially a major top early February 2013.

When you take a closer look into this pair, it appears to need a minor dip for a small 4th wave then a push higher to end a larger 3rd wave before a meaningful pullback that should see a move towards 81.50-81.00

Overall the move from Nov 2011 appears to be a corrective move in the long term trend that has been ongoing for many years in this pair and i suspect that at sometime in the future we should be coming back to test the 75.00 area.

Are you interested in following this pair and many more? for $30 a month its probably the best $30 you will spend on forex analysis, but then dont take my word for it, sign up for the 4 week free trial and see for yourselves.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of USDJPY

Post taken from the forum:

There are 2 ways to look at the advance.

Idea 1: Currently in an impulse wave and i suspect higher prices over the coming weeks, as long as it remains above 81.00 it should be supported by the buyers and move higher

Idea 2: A WXY correction although the same areas apply as long as this pair dont see a strong break under 81.00 i think both ideas suggest more upside

Currently it looks very corrective and i strongly suspect this is indicating more upside once any suspected corrective decline ends

Bottom line is that i think this market is very bullish above 81.50 and some sort of corrective decline from 82.83, either a triangle or a 3 wave decline above 81.50

Saturday, November 17, 2012

CADJPY & USDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis

2 ideas we are looking at early next week.

With a suspect 5 wave advance on both pairs, Elliott Wave suggests that after a 5 wave move we should see a 3 wave pullback, however based on some larger ideas both these markets could be seeing a stronger break lower along with EURJPY

So the JPY crosses next week look like the place to be