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Showing posts with label XLF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label XLF. Show all posts

Saturday, July 19, 2014

Elliott Wave Analysis of XLF & SPX

From the 11th April lows both the XLF and SPX appear to be working an impulse wave, the Elliott Wave structure suggests that a new high is to come to complete the cycle.

An impulse wave consists of 5 waves, I suspect the last few days the SPX and XLF have been inside a messy sideways triangle and probably started the 5th wave"thrust" to new yearly highs. A triangle is a nasty pattern to trade, but to an Elliottician its a great clue, the most common position for a triangle is a 4th wave.

So just by knowing that we can summarize that the SPX and XLF likely still have a new high to come for a 5th wave and end a 5 wave move from the 11th April lows.

That will then setup for a reversal. So the trade short term is to try and get in early for the "thrust" (so buying longs) or if you are looking to sell, I would wait for the new highs, then sell those highs.

The RSI is confirming that the move we have seen is likely a 4th wave triangle, so we still need new highs to complete its cycle. Once we see a new high on the SPX the next target after that is around 1920-30SPX, this cycle is part of a larger 5 wave move that started from the Feb 2014 lows.

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Sunday, January 26, 2014

Market Report: Dow Crashes 450 in 2 Days

Anyone reading that headline would think it's some sort of surprise to most traders that the markets crashed 450 points in 2 days, but for us a wavepatterntraders.com we have been looking for a reversal in the markets for a few weeks and it was only a matter of time before things reversed. So it's no surprise to us, it was expected and I expect much more if a top is in place.

Is this the start of the large move lower that I am expecting? Well to answer that question honestly, it's too early to say, but regardless of the answer, what we can say for sure is that if it is the start of something sinister, we will be riding it lower.

In my last few articles I left readers with the idea of a potential JPY carry trade reversal. The analysis holds true today as it did the end of last year. I am a big believer that if the JPY carry trade unwinds, we will see much more downside in the markets, it will make last week look like a picnic, if the markets have indeed topped out as we expect they have, then its only just getting started. I urge all bullish traders and investors to pay attention to the JPY carry pairs, particularly USDJPY, those that understand the drivers of the market should be fully aware that the past 12 months it's the JPY carry trade that has helped stocks push to current levels.

Just as the markets move higher due to the borrowing of JPY, they can easily reverse lower as margin calls get called in as the selling forces more and more sellers to cover those margin calls. It's a self-fulfilling spiral that once it gets going is very difficult to stop until the sellers have been washed out.

SPX long Term

Preferred Idea

SPX Long term Preferred Count Chart
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I have posted this chart before, but as a recap I will post it again. If the trend from the March 2009 lows is only a 3 wave move, then the likelihood is that it's a B wave of a possible expanded flat pattern.

For those traders that argue that the March 2009 lows will never be seen again, I merely suggest you check the history of the markets, 2 examples are the 1966-1974 bear market, the market made a new high in 1973 and then made new lows, the other example which many investors are probably aware was the decline from 2000-2003, which made a new all time high in 2007, then subsequently crashed under the 2002/3 lows.

I think it's very naive to outright say there is no chance that the US markets can't revisit the March 2009 lows.

Look at it like this, when Gold was at $1900, I bet many thought it was a sure bet 100% that Gold was going to $2000, so at the time if you said Gold seeing $1180 was a possibility most Gold investors would have laughed in your face, 2 years on and Gold investors are not exactly pleased.

Put yourself in the position of those Gold investors, do you think that US stocks will be going up indefinitely?

And there is no chance of a move lower?

Bullish Alternative Idea

SPX Long term Bullish Alternative Count Chart
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Even if I am wrong and this will end up being a 5 wave impulse from the March 2009 lows, that still implies we will see a 4th wave pullback, so a large move back towards Dow 14500, SPX 1550 should be seen. Do you really want to be caught holding the bag and suffer a pullback to 1550SPX?

Short Term

SPX Dhort-Term Chart
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The 1st bearish clue would be a 5 wave decline from the highs; Friday's mini crash suggests it's still inside a small 3rd wave, so we want to see a 4th and a 5th wave to complete a 5 wave impulse wave, if that is seen it will be a strong clue of a trend change, the minimum target would be 1550SPX.

Whilst we don't have any crystal balls we do have a mine in the sand, if the market continues lower as we expect then we will look to see the bounce for a 4th wave and look lower for a 5th wave, then we should see a corrective 3 wave bounce as shown.

All is not as it seems

If you look around the globe and "under the hood" you can see all is not as is seems, whilst some US markets have made new all time highs, that can't be said for many other markets.

XLF

XLF Chart
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If you look at the XLF we can clearly see that it's lagged the SPX and by any criteria you want to choose in my book that's a bear market rally. We can clearly see it's a 3 wave bounce, so by definition it's a corrective bounce in Elliott wave terms, furthermore it's virtually met its measured move target where [C] = [A].

SPX versus XLF Chart
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Not exactly screaming a bull market is it?

We think the XLF could be a great set up to sell, if it's just put in a peak, and topped, then I am expecting a strong move lower. That's one sector I suggest readers watch for weakness.

NYSE

NYSE Chart
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The NYSE is a very important US market and is often over looked, but as we can clearly see its only "just" tested its Oct 2007 highs, if that's a simple double top, then we could be on the verge of a strong move lower, again another market I think investors and traders should be watching.

Do you notice the look? It appears to be in 3 waves and only just above the measured move target where [C] = [A], so whilst the SPX and DOW have got all the headlines if you look around thins are not what they seem.

Around the world

What about other markets that "used" to closely follow the US markets?

CAC40

CAC 40 Chart
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That sure looks like a 3 wave bounce to me, if you are an Elliottician and reading this, I will gladly debate the merits of a potential 5 wave move from the March 2009 lows, because I can't find a way to label that even remotely as a potential 5 wave impulse wave, it's a clear 3 wave move, so in Elliott wave terms a corrective bear market rally.

Incidentally we think this a great market to look to sell and if we can count a small 5 wave decline from the highs then we have a strong clue of a trend reversal, I am targeting 2500, so plenty of downside.

There are many other markets and stocks that suggest the move from the March 2009 is a 3 wave bounce, a 3 wave move is important to Eliotticians as it suggests it's a counter trend bounce.

So you are probably thinking, well you have just picked the markets to curve fit your bias. Why don't you pick a market that has made new all time highs?

Let's do that, what about the DAX, is that ok with you?

DAX

DAX Weekly Chart
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Do you notice the look; it sure looks like a 3 wave move to me. Do you see a 5 wave move there? Furthermore it is only just above the measured move target where C = A.

So whilst it's made a new all time high, it can be considered a B wave of an expanded flat pattern and if the pattern is correct we should see a strong move lower.

DAX Monthly Chart
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I have been targeting this box area for a few months, but if the DAX fails to continue higher and we see a closing print under the top of the box, I would consider that as a bearish sign, especially if we see a bearish candlestick such as a shooting star or a bearish engulfment, on a monthly scale that's a strong signal.
Now let's look at what is happening in Europe.

DAX versus CAC and EURSTOXX Chart
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The CAC and EURSTOXX50 sure don't look like a bull market to me, what do you think?
So having followed each other for years, we finally see a divergence between the DAX and the rest of Europe; I would say that's a pretty convincing statement to say something is wrong with the move in the DAX.

Whilst we will trade the markets both long and short, when you look at the bigger picture around the rest of the globe, both in stocks and other closely linked markets, it sure don't look like a bull market in many other sectors and world markets.

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Conclusion

The markets potentially have a peak in place, the evidence last week was encouraging for the ideas we have been using, however we need to see a 5 wave decline 1st from the all time highs, until we have that we don't yet have a strong clue of a trend change, if we do see more downside, it's likely to be much larger move that many think, with so many traders now addicted to buying the dip, Its sure to surprise a few traders, as it did last week.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of XLF Vs SPX

The advance from the 2009 lows on the XLF so far appears to be a 3 wave move. Its nearly met the measured target where wave [C] = [A], so in Elliott Wave terms we can label it as a potential ABC corrective advance.

Although a bullish move, its actually a bearish bounce against the decline from 2007-2009. its almost at the 50% retrace levels as well.

One of the reasons i suspect the SPX move from the 2009 lows is a B wave is the XLF showing a 3 wave bounce. A check of the history between the 2 markets reveals that in true bull markets the XLF and SPX tend to move in tandem.

If the XLF is actually coming to a conclusion and ending its cycle from the 2009 lows, then i would suspect the trend in the SPX will end as well

Interesting times ahead for both markets, the bulls need to really confirm a strong uptrend in both markets.

Failure to move much higher here could be a warning sign for the bulls.


Sunday, September 30, 2012

SPX VS XLF

I am still expecting a potential test of 1420SPX in what i consider wave [iv] from the June 2012 lows.

I have overlaid the SPX on top of the XLF chart, and you can clearly see the 15 area on the XLF is a strong pivot area

If the pullback were to come back even to test 1400SPX (which is still fine fro what i am expecting) then we could see a test of the 15 XLF, although i will see from next week if 1420SPX is even tested let alone broken

With all the euphoria about bear markets and the next wave has started, it might be an idea to remind those bears that have convinced themselves the next bear market has arrived, that until you see strong downside in the financials and break the 15 area on the XLF, i think its way premature to announce some sort of super crash around the corner

The market has not even broke trend on either market, we can talk about large moves to the downside when 15 is taken out of the XLF and 1390 on the SPX, until then the bulls are in charge and own the markets


This is going on the case that the market sees a larger decline that i expect, if we see buyers step up at 1420SPX the XLF wont reach the 15 are before buyers step in and buy the financial stocks

15 on the XLF is a big area for the bulls to hold

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of XLF






Post taken from this weekends update:

That looks like a clear 7 wave move and the reversal in the financials suggests this has likely topped, or i should say it has a high odds of a top in place and the move from the June lows is over, which further supports the case SPX has topped.

The XLF is virtually back under the 12th Jul 2012 lows, you will not see the markets push higher when the financials are puking, as well as seeing tech dump as well.

Which is confirmed by the wave count as the move since the June lows in the XLF is weaker looking than the SPX, so look for vehicles to buy like an ETF that makes $$$ when the financials push lower, as i am confident this is going to see the June lows tested.

Saturday, March 17, 2012

Elliott Wave Market Newsletter (Weekend Edition)

While its free i suggest taking a look at the contents in this weeks newsletter

http://www.wavepatterntraders.com/ElliottNewsletter/WPT-18-03-2012.pdf

Analysis on EUR/USD, SPX,DOW,RUT,FTSE,DOW UTIL,GOLD,SILVER &Bonds

The trial ends on 29th March 2012

Read the rest here.

here.