Elliott Wave Training

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Showing posts with label YM. Show all posts
Showing posts with label YM. Show all posts

Sunday, September 14, 2014

USDJPY Vs YM (Dow Futures)

The move from Oct 2011 is the most important chart to follow in my opinion, as i am still looking for a 5 wave completed advance in the US markets from the Oct 2011.

Overlaying the USDJPY against the YM futures we can see we have a high correlation, the thing to note is if USDJPY is ending a 5th wave from the Oct 2011 lows then it stands to reason that YM should also be ending a 5 wave move.Thus if both markets are now in a terminal 5th wave we should be very close to completing the cycle from the 2011 lows.

So it seems the more important chart to follow is USDJPY, aka JPY carry trade.


For those that have been in the markets will note that leverage works both ways, and once the leverage component of the markets reverses, nasty things happen.

I want to expand on the last Gold post. lets add Gold to the mix.


It still seem the markets are still linked the USDJPY (aka JPY carry trade). So one could reasonably come to the conclusion that until USDJPY reverses, we are unlikely to see a big reversal in either YM or GC.

Of course its never as easy as it seems, we may see some diveregcnes but there is still a high correlation between YM (US markets) Gold and USDJPY (JPY carry trade).

Monday, January 6, 2014

Market Report: US Stock Markets Still Setting Up

YM

Short term

We went into this week looking for a short term top for wave [iii], the late day spike on New Year's eve appeared to give us the small spike from a small triangle, so it set up for a reversal this past week for wave [iv]. My preferred idea is that this is still in wave [iv] and a new high is still to come, although there is an alternative count that suggests the peak is in place for wave [v] of 5, however I would need to see a strong decline under 16200 to suggest a reversal.

So going into next week I am still looking a bit lower for wave [iv], where we will look to get long for a move higher once the market meets our targets.

Before
YM Before Chart
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After
YM After Chart
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We are still targeting the 16300 area for wave [iv], so a bit a more downside is ideally seen early next week, then setup for a move higher for wave [v]. Although I am still looking for a major peak, I would prefer to see a minor new all time high first before setting up for a large decline.

Long term

I am still working 2 ideas from the March 2009 lows, both ideas suggest a short term top should be close and set up for a large move lower towards to at least 14000-14200. The bullish idea shown in blue suggests a pullback for a large 4th wave, the bearish idea suggests the move from the March 2009 lows is coming to an end, although at wavepatterntraders we focus on actually trading to make $$$ not hero calls, whilst I am a fan of having some long term plans, the real trading is still done on 60 and 240 min charts.

YM Long Term Chart
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In my last article I wrote about the potential for the JPY carry trade to unwind. The past week we saw some weak price action on the JPY pairs, if a peak is in place on Japanese stocks and the JPY pairs then I suspect that is going weigh heavily on US stocks. So it's important to watch the Japanese markets over the coming days & weeks.

This past week we finally saw some decent moves in the markets, if our ideas work out the way we want things are just getting started and a significant move lower is expected.

The moves we saw on US markets, EURJPY, GBPJPY and USDJPY are nothing compared to what I am expecting over the next few months, I am looking for some huge moves in the markets, exactly the conditions traders need to make $$.

Until next time,

Have a profitable week ahead.

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Market Report: JPY Carry Trade Reversal?



In my last article I left readers with the potential idea of a peak in the US markets, although we saw a minor pullback, it was not the move or the initial decline I am expecting.

Although this minor new high in the SPX has caused me to adjust my wave counts a little, the thesis is still on track and I am expecting a large decline in the markets, in the early part of 2014.

Bearish Idea

S&P500 Weekly Bearish Idea Chart
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I suspect this last spike we have seen over the past week is wave 5 of [5], so whilst it can push a bit higher I do think it's close to a reversal.


Read the rest here: http://www.safehaven.com/article/32234/market-report-jpy-carry-trade-reversal

Sunday, July 28, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of YM (Dow E-Mini Futures)

Update to an idea i posted earlier in the week on Stock Twits see here: http://stocktwits.com/message/14761867

My initial target was the 15200 area, although based of Fridays reaction the odds of wave 4 being in place have shifted considerably to around 40%.

My preferred idea is that this is a trap for the bulls and early next week we see a new marginal low to end wave 4, before creating a trap for the bears and reverse higher in wave 5.

If however the market gaps up and we see a strong move in Europe on Monday, the odds will shift considerably to suggest the wave 4 low is in place and now in wave 5, which should target well above 15600.

The difference between the 2 ideas, is that any decline/pullback should be support by the bulls and setup a strong break higher if wave 4 is actually in place.

So Fridays low holds and the idea in blue will be the working wave count.


My daily and weekly wave counts are reserved for members, however i am looking for a significant top once we have a 5 wave advance finished from the June 24th lows. This latest advance is part of an idea i am working from the March 2009 lows. So its no surprise the market is moving higher.