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Showing posts with label ZB. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ZB. Show all posts

Friday, August 16, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ZB (30 year bond)

After hitting my long awaited target, the reversal we have seen over the past 12 months strongly suggests a multi-decade top is now in for bonds.

Looking at the internal structure of bonds, i suspect its close to a decent bounce, so those that are short bonds (or long TBT) probably want to move your stops lower, as a decent bounce for wave 4 of [3] can see 137, that's a nasty move if you get short the lows.

Getting short near the lows is a dangerous method, as most times it tends to reverse and squeeze the bears that are late to the party.

In order to change the complexion of the decline, the bulls would need a move above 142, any bounce that stays below 137.50 (especially if a weak looking corrective advance) is a sell.

Long term it sure looks like a major high in place, so target the 100.00 area.

Sunday, July 7, 2013

Elliott Wave Analysis of ZB (30 YR US Bond)

Staying below 137 suggests the US 30YR bond has much more downside to go, and it appears that its finally topped a 30 yr cycle, although i have been monitoring this for the past couple of years


It seems the pickup to the downside of the past few months mirrors that of a 3rd wave.

I am sure the FED is watching this decline, but unless there some sort of devastating market crash in US stocks to force traders into safety, i think the FED is powerless to do anything about this. I think even that wont be enough, it looks like a secular change has now started and the FED is powerless to stop this move.

Sentiment is dictating price and it seems traders and investors appear to have had enough of US paper.

Will the FED be forced to sit and watch and let the market go into free fall?

Sunday, June 24, 2012

Elliott Wave Analysis of ZB (30Yr Bonds)

Having finally reached a long standing target of 148-150 (the call was made back when the media and many commentators were proclaiming the US bond market was dead near 135 this year)

Bonds have come roaring back to burn the Bears for the umpteenth time over the past 3 or so years

Timing is everything as many have found out, if you time the markets wrong and sell the lows when most are Bearish, you end up being on the wrong side of squeeze

I am surprised the Bears have any fur left, with the butchery that has gone on over the last few months.

I personally still dont think the US Bond market is ready to roll over just yet, but having finally met my projections, i am happy to recommend getting short if price evidence suggests it.

But from the March 2012 lows, i dont think the move is completed, As any Elliott Wave enthusiast knows

You need a 5 wave completed wave for an impulse wave, its generally seen that the 3rd wave is the extended move so we require to see a 9 wave advance.

Currently i can count the move as a 7 wave move

Using TLT, we can see that we have a 7 wave move, and from the highs, the decline is somewhat choppy, so i dont have any reason to declare the bond market is dead, the Bond Bull is alive and well atm.

In fact whilst TLT hovers around the 122-124 area, i suspect it sets up for a strong move above 130, and the TYX sees new lows potentially yields around 2.4%

ZB should hold support around 14630--14530

When you look at the RSI on the actual ZB chart, you can see that it only supports 8 possible moves, so we should see a push higher, i suspect to new high around 155+ and the RSI will diverge and create a 5th wave divergence against the 3rd wave

So looking ahead, i either want to see price a breakdown and confirm Bearish price action, or a new highs in TLT and ZB over the coming weeks/months.